Does the Group Leader Affect Repayment Performance Differently?

Theoretical models of group lending assume that all group members are identical in terms of their effect on repayment performance. In practice, however, this may not be true. We use a unique data set obtained from a survey of 160 borrowing groups in Jordan to investigate the impact of joint liability, screening and monitoring activities, and social ties of the group leader and other group members on repayment performance as measured by the intensity of default using a negative binomial II model. Our results suggest that the joint liability and screening activities of the leader are more strongly related to repayment performance than the same variables for the rest of the group members. Social ties of all members have a significant effect on repayment, while monitoring activities have no effect.     

Does the Group Leader Matter? The Impact of Monitoring Activities and Social Ties of Group Leaders on the Repayment Performance of Group‐based Lending in Eritrea

Abstract: This paper analyses whether the effects of monitoring and social ties of the group leader and other group members on repayment performance of groups differ, using data from an extensive questionnaire held in Eritrea among participants of 102 groups. We hypothesize that the monitoring activities and social ties of the group leader have a stronger positive impact on the repayment performance of groups. The results show that social ties of the group leader do have a positive effect on repayment performance of groups, whereas this is not true for social ties of other group members. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that monitoring activities of the group leader have a stronger positive impact on group repayment performance. All variables measuring monitoring activities, either of the group leader or the other group members, are found to be statistically insignificant.     

Panama's exports and its sovereign debt

Conclusion Panama has a foreign debt that represents 81.2 percent of GNP. In absolute terms, this is not large by the standards established by countries such as Mexico. For countries like Panama, which are not in the severely indebted middle-income countries, there is a tendency to overlook them with debt assistance programs. In 1989, the Brady Initiative recognized the need to help SIMICs and the Paris Club also stepped in with rescheduling agreements primarily for SIMICs with high official debt. In the 1980s, Panama rescheduled $594 million in debt.That does not reduce the debt; rather, it gives the country more time to pay it off. Exports (or income) growth, if used exclusively to repay the debt, could accomplish that goal in 39 years. But the relationship between existing interest rates and export growth cannot be expected to endure for so long. In fact, it might be impossible for Panama to ever pay off its debt, particularly when its long-term and short-term sum exceed its GNP. If the ratio of debt-to-exports is indeed constant, then Panama will be able to outgrow the debt as long as export growth is greater than the cost of servicing the debt.     

智能化转型对家电企业财务绩效的影响研究——以四川长虹为例

以家电行业智能化转型的试点企业——四川长虹为例，基于财务数据从盈利、偿债、营运、发展、研发五个方面分析智能化转型对财务绩效的影响，发现其在转型中销售体系有缺陷、利润率增幅不明显、偿债风险较高、营收增长减缓等问题，提出在转型进程中应建立智能化销售体系、不断优化转型资本结构、构建智能风控系统、加快核心业务发展等建议，以此促进家电企业高质量发展。     

Does IMF conditionality benefit lenders?

Conclusions The purpose of this paper has been to assess whether official and private lenders benefit from IMF participation in rescheduling sovereign LDC debt via the Paris Club. If IMF participation increases the expected value of any existing or newly rescheduled official or private debt contracts, then lenders benefit. The transmission process can be via the immediate liquidity the IMF provides through various loan facilities, which allows for debt service payments to be met in a timely fashion, and/or through the increased ability of the sovereign to meet future debt service payments due to the conditions attached to IMF liquidity. The results from this paper suggest that the provision of immediate IMF liquidity provides a benefit to lenders but that the attached conditions do not. These results were obtained for a large sample of 84 LDCs over the sample period 1978-1987 and may differ when specific cases are considered. IMF participation reduced the average spread over LIBOR by 155 to 179 basis points, based on a simple model relating interest spreads to default probabilities. Heavily indebted sovereign borrowers may have experienced larger reductions. The design and implementation of IMF conditions has been criticized in the literature because they confer little benefit on the sovereign borrower. Our results support the consensus view that the conditions themselves have little effect. However, our contribution results from seeing the issue from the perspective of rational lenders who expend resources to evaluate IMF conditionality programs.     

VULNERABILITY OF MICROFINANCE TO STRATEGIC DEFAULT AND COVARIATE SHOCKS: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

This paper investigates the repayment behavior of borrowers of a Pakistani microfinance institution (MFI) using a unique dataset of approximately 45,000 installment records over the period 1998–2007. In early 2005, the MFI introduced reforms that included improved enforcement of contingent renewal. The reforms led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism was encouraged by weak enforcement of contingent renewal and was one of the factors responsible for the pre‐reform failure. To support this hypothesis, we show that before the reforms, a borrower's delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members' repayment delays beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks. Such excessive correlation disappeared after the reforms, including the period after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The empirical evidence thus demonstrates the existence and seriousness of the strategic default under weak dynamic incentives.     

Developing a Risk Group Predictive Model for Korean Students Falling into Bad Debt

Using direct loan data for 2012 to 2014 from the Korea Student Aid Foundation, we develop a risk group predictive model for borrowers defaulting on their loans. We used a logistic regression model and the Cox proportional hazards model to develop the risk predictive model. We verified the validity of the models using a receiver operating characteristic curve and a validation dataset. The present study shows that area under the receiver operating characteristic curves is similar for the models and that the major influencing factors for defaulting on their loans are household income, whether a national grant was received, age, whether more than two accounts are overdue, field of study and the monthly repayment amount. The risk group predictive model in this study will be the basis for more efficient management of direct student loans.     

What matters more for South African households’ debt repayment difficulties?

While the increased access to consumer credit has helped many families improve their welfare, the rising repayment burdens upon a background of chronically low saving rates have generated concerns that South African families are becoming ever more financially fragile and less able to meet their consumer debt repayment obligations. Using data from the Cape Area Panel Study, this article investigates whether consumer debt repayment problems are better explained by excessive spending which leaves households financially overstretched or by negative income shocks. The results indicate that households are significantly more likely to be delinquent on their financial obligations when they suffer negative events beyond their control rather than due to the size of the expenditure burden. This suggests that consumer repayment problems are likely to endure even when consumers borrow within their means. Thus, regulatory efforts to improve mechanisms for debt relief might be more meaningful than restrictions on lending.     

银行业务中提前还款的经济学分析——谈抵押贷款的隐含性选择权

根据银行业务中抵押贷款提前偿还的经济学分析,指出了隐含于银行业务中的选择权的本质,并建立相关业务风险的简单模型,详细讨论了提前还款的隐含性选择权暴露后对于银行和客户的得失,提出了银行对借款人的选择权征收一定的费用是合理的和必须的,而且是应该被量化或定价。     

影响银行贷款质量因素的文献述评

贷款质量既是银行经营绩效的重要指标,也是一国金融银行体系总体健康程度的睛雨表,因此受到了政策制定者、银行管理层与学者的广泛关注和研究.本文从借款人的还款能力,借款人的还款意愿,融资约束,金融市场发育程度等四个角度综述了银行贷款质量的决定因素和形成机制,进一步探讨了银行贷款质量研究的未来可能发展方向.     

Micro-credit initiatives for equitable and sustainable development: Who pays?

There is a growing acknowledgement that micro-credit programs have potential for equitable and sustainable development. However, my anthropological research on the micro-credit program of the Grameen Bank shows that bank workers are expected to increase disbursement of loans among their members and press for high recovery rates to earn profit necessary for economic viability of the institution. To ensure timely repayment in the loan centers bank workers and borrowing peers inflict an intense pressure on women clients. In the study community many borrowers maintain their regular payment schedules through a process of loan recycling that considerably increases the debt-liability on the individual households, increases tension and frustration among household members, produces new forms of dominance over women and increases violence in society.     

论实现农民非农化的制度创新

随着工业化进程的加快,农村劳动力就业问题显得越来越突出,农民非农化已成为我国生产力现代化的一种客观趋势,它涉及到与农民生产方式和生活方式变化相关的一切体制、规则、政策和观念的重新安排。本文从农村劳动力就业模式、农村产业政策、农村城市化、农村市场体系、农村职业教育等方面展开论述,探索实现农民非农化的制度创新。     

MICROFINANCE REVOLUTION: ITS EFFECTS,INNOVATIONS, AND CHALLENGES

“Microfinance revolution” is the term often applied to the successful expansion of small-scale financial services to the poor with high repayment records in developing countries. The present paper investigates the extent to which the microfinance revolution is truly revolutionary. More specifically, it explores the impact of microfinance institutions on the poor, the mechanisms underlying high repayment rates and their innovations, and the new challenges microfinance institutions are currently facing. Different from the existing published survey literature, we focus on current topics and attempt to show recent theoretical developments in a comprehensive manner using simplified models with very similar settings. We contend that microfinance is developing in a promising direction but has yet to reach its full potential.     

Joint-Liability in Microcredit: Evidence from Bangladesh

The joint-liability lending model in microcredit predicts social ties between groups of borrowers to incentivise repayment. However, it also promotes free riding behaviour. Repeated experimental games conducted in Bangladesh are used to empirically analyse key theoretical hypotheses predicted under joint-liability (repeated experimental games are conducted by the author on the field in Manikganj, Dhaka, Bangladesh in December 2014); treated groups of microcredit borrowers are compared to control groups of non-microcredit borrowers alongside questionnaire findings. Treated individuals forego short-run gains from non-repayment and benefit from higher long-run gains from progressing on to further rounds. The paper also finds that treated individuals are significantly less likely to free ride and more likely to shoulder for their partner compared to control individuals. Optimal individual and group characteristics to maximise repayment under joint-liability are then identified.     

Microfinance in Times of Crisis: The Effects of Competition, Rising Indebtedness, and Economic Crisis on Repayment Behavior

This paper analyzes repayment determinants for loans from Caja Los Andes, a Bolivian microlender. The analysis focuses on the influence of recent changes in Bolivia. In particular, we examine the effects of the rapidly growing supply of microloans, the increasing competition, a rising level of indebtedness among microentrepreneurs, and the recent economic crisis. Our results show a twofold influence structure of competition and indebtedness. First, clients with loans from multiple sources at the same time are found to be more likely to default than others. Second, clients with given characteristics have an overall better repayment behavior in areas with higher competition and a higher supply of microloans.     

Debt rescheduling and the choice between bonds and loans for LDCs' foreign debt

This paper examines less developed country (LDC) borrowers' choice of financing methods. I devleop and test the hypothesis that ex-ante consideration of rescheduling affects LDC borrowers' choice between bonds and commercial loans. Banks can monitor and distinguish between permanent and temporary shocks, while bondholders cannot. Therefore, debt rescheduling based on the nature of economic shocks is feasible with loan financing. Our empirical findings indicate the debt rescheduling is considered exante in LDC lending. In addition, default risk and contract size affect the choice of financing instruments.     

保险资金对资本市场的影响分析

保险资金投资于资本市场是保险业发展的必然选择,同时也是资本市场快速发展的契机。保险资金的入市在给保险公司带来高额回报的同时,还有利于扩大我国机构投资者的队伍,避免市场的剧烈波动,有利于资本市场的稳定和长远发展。     

Microcredit games with noisy signals: Contagion and free-riding

The advent of microcredit financing has remarkably improved access to credit for the poor in many developing countries. Although several microcredit programs have adopted the joint liability scheme, economic theory suggests that joint liability could increase strategic default through contagion and free-riding. This paper aims at studying the extent of free-riding and contagion in joint liability lending. By using data from experimental repayment games conducted in Vietnam, with noisy signals that resemble actual microcredit programs, we found that subjects were motivated to free-ride under the joint liability scheme. While most empirical research in this area has focused on the problem of contagion, our findings point to the significance of investigating free-riding behavior under joint liability schemes. Analyses reveal that the free-riding tendency may be led by the irresponsiveness of repayment and shouldering behavior to the partner’s seemingly strategic default in the previous round.     

Was the expansion of housing credit in Japan good or bad?

This paper shows, using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, that housing credit has become increasingly available over time in Japan, especially since 2000, and that this has made it easier for Japanese households to purchase housing and enabled them to do so at an earlier age. However, it also shows that the greater availability of housing credit has increased households’ housing loan repayment burden, which has resulted in their cutting back on their other consumption expenditures and created the potential for retirement insecurity. Another concern is that the increasing availability of housing credit has been accompanied by a pronounced shift from fixed-rate to variable-rate housing loans. This is cause for concern given the low level of financial literacy that prevails among the Japanese population and the likelihood that interest rates on variable-rate housing loans will be raised sooner or later as monetary policy is tightened.     

A springboard into politics: Do Chinese entrepreneurs benefit from joining the government-controlled business associations?

Business associations in authoritarian regimes behave systematically different from their counterparts in democratic regimes. Using a unique dataset of Chinese private firms, this paper examines the impacts of joining the most prominent business association in China, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce (ACFIC) which was initiated and strongly controlled by the government. We find that ACFIC members have much higher chances to obtain formal political identities, that is, the deputy of People's Congress (PC) or the People's Political Consultative Conference (PPCC). However, ACFIC membership itself cannot help entrepreneurs acquire scarce resources that are controlled by the government. Rather, ACFIC members bear heavier tax burdens and make more informal payments to government officials. These findings suggest that the ACFIC act as a springboard into politics, rather than an effective collective action committee that can bring common benefits to its members or protect members from government predation.