2012年-2013年全球经济展望

瑞银发布的全球经济研究报告对2012年-2013年的全球经济增长进行了展望,报告评估了世界经济形势,分析了在预测期内全球增长可能的变化路径。瑞银预测:2012年全球经济将增长3.1%,2013年增长3.4%;欧元区将陷入衰退,但不至于扰乱美国经济的复苏;中国经济将实现软着陆。     

2011年全球经济形势回顾与2012年前景展望

2011年全球经济发展跌宕起伏,经济增长总体呈现前高后低的态势,复苏势头有所减弱。尤其是发达国家主权债务问题持续发酵,成为拖累全球经济发展最主要的不确定性因素,也造成了国际金融和商品市场的剧烈动荡;相比而言,新兴市场国家总体保持较高增速,但受外需环境恶化、较大通胀压力等因素影响,也出现经     

2011～2012年世界经济回顾与展望

2011年,世界经济在频繁变化的国际形势和反复震荡的金融市场中,实现了缓慢而曲折的复苏。2012年仍是充满变数的一年,世界经济运行的风险与希望并存。曲折动荡的2011年虽然未出现二次探底,但受发达国家需求不振、欧洲债务危机升级、日本地震冲击全球供应链、中东北非动荡推高油价等因素影响,各国经济活动普遍较     

2010年世界经济形势回顾与2011年展望

2010年世界经济运行表现出四个方面的特点：全球经济触底反弹、通胀通缩全球并存、债务危机若隐若现及经济合作继续推进。具体到地区来看,美、日、欧三大经济体都表现为温和复苏,而新兴经济体出现了强劲反弹。展望2011年,世界经济增速将适度放缓,并面临着主权债务危机、房地产市场疲弱、失业率居高不下以及资产泡沫等不确定因素。     

2011年全球经济9大回顾

世界经济列车在穿越2011年的时光隧道中不仅遭遇到了一波又一波欧债危机的倾轧和折磨。还承载了美债阴影的纠缠与突袭;祸不单行,新兴市场国家通胀的侵扰与政策的紧缩也构成了一股巨大的拖曳力量,而在国际评级机构诡谲般剌耳声音的包裹之下,2011年的世界经济前行脚步更是显得异常的沉重与艰难。当然,经受了金融风暴洗礼的各国政府面对着新危机的拷打并没有作出任何的屈服和让步,相反通过不断提炼出及时性策略进行着有力的克制与对冲,人类战胜困难的智慧和能量由此得到了再一次的释放和彰显。     

在动荡中前行——2011年全球经济与国际金融回顾和展望

2011年是充满动荡的一年。日本特大地震、中东北非政治风波、欧洲债务危机,来自自然和社会、经济和金融领域的冲击重重叠叠。世界各国疲于应对,宏观政策频繁调整,国际协调难度加大。     

往事不堪回首 来日复苏多忧——全球经济2012年回顾与2013年展望

全球经济2012年回顾:傲慢与偏见2012年全球经济,由表及里,傲慢与偏见构成了2012年经济精神的核心关键词。傲慢与偏见,均源于对经济理论的教条理解、对所谓共识的盲目笃信、对真实力量的深层不屑、     

密切关注新型“滞胀”的挑战——全球经济金融展望季报(2012年第一季度)

2011年,受中东与北非地缘政治动荡、日本特大地震灾害和欧美主权债务风暴升级等因素的冲击,全球经济持续走软,金融市场大幅动荡。各国政策频繁转向,以应对"二次衰退"风险。2012年,全球经济增长率将显著下行,特别是债务危机将导致欧洲经济步入衰退。与此同时,通胀压力不会明显消退,全球将迈向新型"滞胀"时期。为应对新     

全球经济在深度调整中曲折复苏——2015年全球经济金融回顾与展望北大核心CSSCISSCI

2015年全球经济再次在深度调整中艰难复苏,“低增长、低通胀和低利率”的新常态循环进一步固化。同时,国际金融市场重启“震动”模式,受希腊债务公投、美联储加息、新兴市场经济体脆弱性增加、中东地区动荡不安等系列因素的影响,资本市场、外汇市场和大宗商品市场大幅波动。     

复苏困境重重 前行难言轻松——2012年全球经济与国际金融回顾和展望

2012年的全球经济与国际金融形势,如果用一个字来形容,那就是难。2012年或许是进入新世纪以来最难的一年。欧债危机难以化解,愈演愈烈。其程度之深、影响之广、拖延之久,超过了危机之初大多数人的估计。希腊政经危局一再恶化,退欧风险不断牵动国际社会脆弱的神经。西班牙地区性银行危机与公共债务问题相互交织,更是挑战欧洲国家应对危机的能力和信心。在债务危机与金融危机的拖累之下,欧洲     

The Asset Growth Effect and Investor Protection in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Global Financial Crisis

The previous evidence shows that firms experience lower returns after a period with higher growth in assets. Two alternative explanations have been raised to explain this effect: mispricing and optimal investment. This study examines this effect in 26 emerging markets over the period of 2005–2013 with a special attention to the recent global financial crisis. We find a stronger asset growth effect during the crisis years relative to other years. This effect is stronger in firms with small or medium stock turnover ratio and firms operating in industries with low R&D intensity. We also investigate the heterogeneity across countries and find that a stronger asset growth effect during the crisis years exists only for emerging markets with low protection of shareholders and creditors. We argue that this evidence is in line with the mispricing hypothesis.     

关于欧洲主权债务问题与欧元区域制度改革的思考

近来,希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙和爱尔兰等多个欧元区国家均面临主权债务违约风险。这一问题的发生,既有希腊等国自身财政管理的原因,也反映出欧元区体制中存在的一系列长期性、结构性和制度性问题。如果不能妥善解决欧元区国家的主权债务问题,不仅将拖累欧元区经济发展,也会对世界经济金融复苏造成冲击。欧洲主权债务问题的出现,对我国财政预算管理也有一定警示作用。     

The Hong Kong Securities Markets: Review and Prospects

The Hong Kong securities markets have achieved the status of regional prominence in that they were ranked number two in Asia after Japan in early 1997. There is also a growing presence of overseas institutional trade from US and UK showing that the Hong Kong market is getting more internationalized. However, the ownership of Hong Kong's corporations is still closely held by a single shareholder or a group of close family members. Apart from the listing of mainland Chinese enterprises equities, Hong Kong should also look at the opportunities of the trading of Renminbi based derivative instruments and the listing of bonds and equities for corporations in other Asia economies.     

希腊主权债务危机的成因与影响

日益严重的希腊主权债务危机将希腊推向了欧元区主权债务问题的风口浪尖,由此也形成了影响欧元区稳定运行的严峻挑战。该文基于国际金融危机对希腊经济与财政运行状况的影响,分析了引起希腊主权债务危机的成因及解决途径,指出解决希腊主权债务危机除了希腊自身的努力外,依然需要国际社会尤其是欧盟的援助。从全球的角度看,其他经济体的主权债务问题也同样值得警惕和重视。     

Integration of European bond markets

I investigate the time variation in the integration of EU government bond markets. The integration is measured by the explanatory power of European factor portfolios for the individual bond markets for each year. The integration of the government bond markets is stronger for EMU than non-EMU members and stronger for old than new EU members. For EMU countries, the integration is weaker the lower the credit rating is. During the recent crisis periods, the integration is weaker, particularly for EMU countries.     

Dynamic Efficiency in the East European Emerging Markets

The paper re-investigates the efficiency of the East European emerging markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia analyzed by Rockinger and Urga (2000, 2001) based on the data from September, 1995 through December, 2004. We propose a first-order autoregressive (AR (1)) type time varying parameter model with a non-stochastic linear time trend including the random walk (RW) type model as a special case. The observed data rejects the RW type model for the AR (1) type one. The markets exhibit dynamic efficiency for all the four countries in the sense that the linear time trend approaches to zero over time. The empirical result for the Russian markets differs from that of Rockinger and Urga (2000). JEL Classifications: G14, G15     

US macroeconomic surprises and the emerging-market sovereign CDS market

Our primary aim is to examine whether US macroeconomic surprises affect the slope of the term structure of ‘sovereign credit default swap’ (SCDS) spreads in emerging markets. Our empirical results show that positive (negative) US macroeconomic surprises are likely to reduce (increase) the term structure slope of SCDS spreads in emerging countries. We find that the slope values in emerging markets are positively related to future market returns over 1- and 2-day horizons. Our results provide general support for the future informational role played by SCDS spreads for the national stock market within emerging markets.     

2012年全球经济金融形势研判及对策建议

在回顾2011年发展态势的基础上,文章对2012年全球经济金融形势进行了预测,认为2012年世界经济将延续低速增长局面,全球资本流向不确定性增强,全球主要金融市场将持续动荡,股票市场、大宗商品市场和外汇市场波动将加剧,国际银行业前景不容乐观。在此形势下。我国应灵活应对,积极防范各种风险,促进经济平稳较快增长。     

Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets

Inferences drawn from tests of market efficiency are rendered imprecise in the presence of infrequent trading. As the observed index in thinly traded markets may not represent the true underlying index value, there is a systematic bias toward rejecting the efficient market hypothesis. For the three emerging Gulf markets examined in this paper, correction for infrequent trading significantly alters the results of market efficiency and random walk tests. The Beveridge–Nelson (1981) decomposition of index returns is done to estimate the underlying index.