商业银行集团客户信用风险管理浅析

集团客户作为各家商业银行争相营销的对象,在给银行带来较大利益的同时,也隐藏着巨大的信用风险.本文从集团客户的定义和特征出发,结合商业银行管理实践,分析集团客户信用风险产生的原因,阐述商业银行集团客户信用风险管理的难点和重点.最后,提出了加强集团客户授信风险管理的想法和建议.     

集团客户信用风险及对策

对集团客户的信用风险管理是金融机构对集团客户授信管理的主要内容.本文通过分析集团客户的风险特征,指明目前金融机构对集团客户授信存在的主要问题,进而阐述加强集团客户信用风险管理的措施.     

基于Logistic模型的个人住房贷款信用风险实证研究——以陕西省建设银行数据为例

随着个人住房贷款市场的不断扩大,呈现出信用风险不断暴露的趋势.本文在总结国内外学者对个人住房贷款信用风险及风险评估方面研究成果的基础上,选取陕西省建设银行个人住房贷款客户为研究对象,通过Logistic回归模型构建个人住房贷款信用风险的评估模型,最终实现对个人住房贷款客户的信用风险评价.     

集团客户信用风险及其对策研究

对集团客户的信用风险管理是金融机构对集团客户授信管理的主要内容.本文通过介绍集团客户的风险特征,指出目前金融机构在对集团客户授信方面存在的主要问题,并提出了加强集团客户信用风险管理的对策措施.     

外贸客户信用风险管理措施研究

加入世贸组织以来,我国对外贸易快速发展,进出口贸易也随之呈现递增趋势,但是随之而来的是外贸信用风险的加剧.其中出口企业因为对信用管理不善而使很多账款不能收回,还导致了坏账率居高不下,给中国大部分出口企业带来不可估量的损失,严重的甚至影响企业的生存和发展.外贸客户信用风险管理控制问题直接影响着出口企业的发展,所以尽快建立起合理有效的信用风险管理制度,提高出口企业的信用管理水平.本文从信用风险管理涉及的相关概念出发,分析了外贸客户信用风险的特征,探究了外贸客户信用风险产生的原因,并对如何防范外贸客户信用风险提出了相应的对策,期以能对相关出口企业有些许借鉴,从而使出口企业减少经济损失,提升国际竞争力,促进出口贸易的增长.     

浅议新时期投资银行的内部风险控制与管理

投资银行的发展通常要面临多重风险的袭扰,包括外部的市场风险、信用风险,内部的管理风险、操作风险等。内部风险的控制和管理历来是投资银行管理工作的重点,也直接决定了投资银行的发展走向。本文拟以此为切入口,论述了投资银行内部风险的表现和内容,并提出了针对性的控制和管理策略。     

外贸企业客户信用风险及其管理研究

信用风险管理是当前企业风险管理的核心,如何有效防范和化解信用风险,关系着企业能否实现长远目标.本文以外贸企业客户信用风险现状为出发点,通过分析信用风险管理中的存在的问题,为防范信用风险管理提出相关对策建议.     

对进出口贸易中信用风险的管理

目前,我国的外贸企业越来越认识到建立信用风险管理体系的重要性,全面和系统的信用风险管理体现在宏观、中观和微观多个层面上,将有利于指导我国企业有效规避进出口贸易中的信用风险.本文从上述三个层面分析了进出口贸易中信用风险的管理,其中宏观层面主要指对目标客户国家性风险的管理,其中包括预防性、经营性和补救性等管理方法;中观层面主要指我国外贸行业信用风险的管理,其中主要从体制方面和人才培养方面进行论述;微观层面指我国外贸企业个体的信用风险管理,主要从企业内部信用风险部门构建和客户信用风险管理体系两方面进行分析.     

基于Logistic回归模型的个人小额贷款信用风险评估及应用

构建二分类 Logistic信用风险评估模型,运用光大银行某分行样本数据,评估商业银行互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险。结果显示：客户性别、学历、年龄、收入、职业、属地等因素对个人小额贷款信用风险影响显著。其中,年龄、收入、学历等与客户信用等级呈正向关系,女性信用风险显著低于男性,持有信用卡、存贷比越低的客户其信用等级越高;一、二线城市客户的履约率普遍高于县地级市客户的履约率。鉴此,商业银行应对互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险进行有效规避和分散。     

我国商业银行经营投行业务的现状、风险与对策

随着市场竞争日趋激烈和管制的放松,我国商业银行出现了传统业务与投资银行业务交叉融合的现象,投资银行业务有望成为商业银行重要的利润增长点。在投资银行业务发展中要面临道德风险、市场风险、政策风险、信用风险等,因此,需要设立防火墙制度,加强人力资源建设,完善风险内控体系,优化外部监管操作,来完善商业银行的风险管理体系。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.