Adopting better corporate governance: Evidence from cross-border mergers

Cross-border mergers allow firms to alter the level of protection they provide to their investors, because target firms usually import the corporate governance system of the acquiring company by law. Therefore, cross-border mergers provide a natural experiment to analyze the effects of changes in corporate governance on firm value, and on an industry as a whole. We construct measures of the change in investor protection induced by cross-border mergers in a sample of 7330 ‘national industry years’ (spanning 39 industries in 41 countries in the period 1990–2001. We find that the Tobin's Q of an industry — including its unmerged firms — increases when firms within that industry are acquired by foreign firms coming from countries with better shareholder protection and better accounting standards. We present evidence that the transfer of corporate governance practices through cross-border mergers is Pareto improving. Firms that can adopt better practices willingly do so, and the market assigns more value to better protection.     

The Economic Significance of the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Model: Further Analysis

We reexamine whether investors can gain abnormal returns using the cross-sectional autoregressive model of stock returns. We find that the pattern of abnormal returns obtained is inconsistent over the time period 1934–94. We adjust for the higher commission costs in the pre-May 1 1975 period, a point overlooked in Jegadeesh (1990), by assuming a conservative one-way transaction cost of 0.75%. For the post-May 1 1975 period, we use a one-way transaction cost of 0.25%. The results show that investors who invest only on the long side would earn insignificant 'after-transaction cost' abnormal returns in the post-World War II period, 1946–94. The 'after-transaction cost' abnormal return from the short strategy is about 0.5% for the period 1946–94. This article shows that an investor would not earn abnormal returns using this model considering that it is more costly in practice to sell securities short and that most investors would not earn interest on short sale proceeds.     

Exchange rate pass-through to bilateral import prices

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through for a unique set of bilateral US import prices over the period 1992–2006. It finds evidence of a significant decline in pass-through to US import prices from some, but not all, of the trading partners in the sample. These differences rule out a universal decline in pass-through rates to bilateral US import prices. They further indicate a growing divergence in the import price response to a uniform dollar decline.     

The impact of CRA agreements on community banks

We develop three empirical models to identify the impact of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) agreements on the mortgage lending behavior of small banking institutions during the period 1990–1997. CRA agreements are pledges banking institutions make to extend levels of credit to targeted populations and are often used by institutions to reaffirm their commitment to the goals of the CRA. We hypothesize that CRA agreements increase the level of competition for mortgage loans in the targeted area, which in turn causes a reduction in the quantity of mortgage credit to be supplied by community banks. Consistent with the quantity hypothesis, the results show that CRA agreements are associated with less mortgage lending, including lending in lower-income communities (CRA lending) and in minority communities (minority lending), by small community lenders. Evidence does not support a second hypothesis – that community banks respond to the increased competition by providing credit to riskier individuals.     

Imports under a Foreign Exchange Constraint

To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakersmust estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchangeavailable. Traditional models estimate import demand as a functionof relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (grossdomestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the1980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms oftrade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchangeavailability in most developing countries and limited importcapacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporateboth the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity—foreignexchange inflows and international reserves. The first modelassumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the secondmodel import prices are endogenous—allowing for governmentattempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domesticimport price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-onedeveloping countries for 1970–83. The results suggestthat the import model presented here does a better job of explainingimport behavior than do the traditional model (which excludeschanges in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludesrelative import prices and income).     

Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach

This paper investigates the time-series evidence of asymmetric reverting patterns in stock returns that is attributable to “contrarian profitability.” Using asymmetric nonlinear smooth-transition (ANST) GARCH(M) models, we find that, for monthly excess returns of US market indexes over the period of 1926:01–1997:12, negative returns on average reverted more quickly, with a greater reverting magnitude, to positive returns than positive returns revert to negative returns. The results are quite consistent when the models are implemented not only for the different sample periods, such as 1926:01–1987:09 and 1947:01–1997:12, but also for portfolios with different characteristics, such as different firm-size portfolios and Fama–French risk-adjusted factor portfolios. We interpret the asymmetrical reversion as evidence of stock market overreaction.     

Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors: A time-varying approach

This paper analyses the dynamic influence of macroeconomic factors on oil commodity returns (crude oil and heating oil) shown in monthly data over the period of 1990–2013. Using a time-varying parameter model via the Kalman filter, we find that macroeconomic factors are relevant for explaining oil commodity returns. We find that multilateral exchange rates have a negative effect on commodity returns. We confirm the existence of a strong linkage between energy and non-energy commodities. More importantly, we find shifts in global demand and SP500 effects that are not identified through the constant parameter model. These variables have had a progressively positive effect on oil commodity returns, especially since 2008.     

A Test of Integration and Cointegration of Commercial Mortgage Rates

Little empirical work examines the extent to which commercial mortgage markets are integrated into broader capital markets. We use time series data on commercial mortgage yields and yields on comparable-maturity Treasury securities to identify a long-run cointegrating relationship between the two yield series. Our empirical evidence suggest that, while the yield on commercial mortgage is cointegrated with that on comparable-maturity Treasury securities, the cointegrating relationship is far less than that found between the yield on residential mortgage rates and that on comparable-maturity Treasury securities during 1980–1990 time period. However, our results also show that the spate of commercial mortgage securitization that began in early 1991 may have been a market-integrating force and caused the commercial mortgage market to become more integrated into broader capital markets. Indeed, our results suggest that changes in capital market rates are now much more rapidly reflected in commercial mortgage rates than in the 1980–1990 time period, although there is a lag.     

The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty

Financial instruments whose payoffs are linked to exogenous events, such as the occurrence of a natural catastrophe or an unusual weather pattern depend crucially on actuarial models for determining event (e.g., default) probabilities. In many instances, investors appear to receive premiums far in excess of these modeled actuarial probabilities, even for event risks that are uncorrelated with returns on other financial assets. Some have attributed these larger spreads to uncertainty in the probabilities generated by the models. We provide a simple model of such parameter uncertainty and demonstrate how it affects rational investors' demand for event risk exposures. We show that while parameter uncertainty does indeed affect bond spreads, it does not tend to increase spreads by much. Indeed, the spread increases due to parameter uncertainty in our numerical examples are on the order of only 1–2 basis points. Moreover, in many instances, including those that have the most sensible correlation settings, parameter uncertainty tends to decrease the size of bond spreads. We therefore argue that parameter uncertainty does not appear to be a satisfactory explanation for high event-risk returns.     

On the use of the Box–Cox transformation on conditional variance models

We investigate the effects of using the Box–Cox transformation on conditional variance specifications. By deriving its autocorrelation functions, we infer “rich” autocorrelation structures due to the existence of the specification parameter in this non-linear transformation. To illustrate transformation's effects on conditional variance models, we first generate its theoretical autocorrelation function and then investigate model's fit using real financial time-series data.     

US oil companies’ earnings management in response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita

This study examines earnings management by US-based oil companies in the period immediately after the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We show that large petroleum refining firms – but not the smaller crude oil and natural gas production companies – recorded significant abnormal income-decreasing accruals in the fiscal quarter immediately after the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Q4 of 2005). In addition, we show that these results are driven by abnormal current accruals. Prior studies show that some firms respond to periods of heightened political scrutiny by recording abnormal income-decreasing accruals (e.g. [Cahan, S., 1992. The effect of antitrust investigation on discretionary accruals: a refined test of the political cost hypothesis. The Accounting Review 67 (1), 77–96; Han, J., Wang, S., 1998. Political costs and earnings management of oil companies during the 1990 Persian Gulf Crisis. The Accounting Review 73 (1), 103–118]). Our results add to this stream of research by examining a political cost-increasing event that occurred after the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002. The results suggest that in the post-SOX period managers continue to engage in income-decreasing earnings management during periods of heightened political cost sensitivity, at least in the case of large petroleum refining firms.     

Gaussian Estimation and Forecasting of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models with an Application to Japan and the United Kingdom

In this paper we extend the exact discrete model of Bergstrom (1966) first used in empirical finance by Brennan and Schwartz (1979) to estimate their two-factor term structure model to estimate other two-factor term structure models using the recent assumption in Nowman (1997) for single factor models. Following Nowman (1997) we use the exact Gaussian estimation methods of Bergstrom (1983–1986, 1990) to estimate two-factor CKLS, Vasicek and CIR models. We estimate the models using monthly UK and Japanese interest rate data and our results indicate that the estimation method works well in practice.     

Does corporate international diversification destroy value? Evidence from cross-border mergers and acquisitions

This paper investigates the valuation effects of corporate international diversification by examining cross-border mergers and acquisitions of US acquirers over the period 1990–2000. We find that, on average, acquisitions of “fairly valued” foreign business units do not lead to value discounts. In contrast, unrelated cross-border acquisitions result in a significant diversification discount of about 24% after accounting for the valuation of foreign targets. Furthermore, significant wealth gains accrue to foreign target shareholders regardless of the type of acquisition. Overall, our results suggest that international diversification does not destroy value while industrial diversification leads to discounts even after controlling for the pre-acquisition value of the target.     

Governance indexes and valuation: Which causes which?

Two recent papers document a significant relation between valuation multiples and governance indices during the 1990s. We test whether causation runs from governance to valuation or vice versa. We find that valuation multiples during the early 1980s, a period preceding the adoption of the provisions comprising the governance indices, are highly correlated with valuation multiples during the 1990s. After controlling for valuation multiples during 1980–1985, no significant relation exists between contemporaneous valuation multiples and governance indices during the 1990s. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that firms with low valuation multiples were more likely to adopt provisions comprising the governance indices, not that the adoption of these provisions depresses valuation multiples.     

Bank risk taking and changes in the financial condition of banks' small and midsized commercial customers, 1978–1988 and 1988–1991

This study examines the pattern of bank risk taking through the 1980s and early 1990s, as reflected in the reported financial condition of banks' small and midsized customer firms. Using industry data published in Robert Morris Associates'Annual Statement Studies, we examine the ten-year period 1978–1988 to ascertain changes in the financial condition of banks' commerical customers during the 1980s, and the following three-year period 1988–1991, to determine financial condition changes in customer firms during the early 1990s. Empirical results suggest banks' small and midsized commercial clientele shifted toward riskier organizations From 1988 to 1988, confirming the popularized notion of banks' increased tolerance for risk during the 1980s. From 1988 to 1991, however, banks' client firms evidenced a pattern of risk reduction, which is consistent with the argument that banks have retrenched in their risk taking in recent years, shifting back toward a more financially sound customer base.     

Theory of Storage and the Pricing of Commodity Claims

We extend the literature on commodity pricing by incorporating a link between the spread of forward prices and spot price volatility suggested by the theory of storage. Our model has closed form solutions that are generalizations of the two-factor model of Gibson–Schwartz (1990). We estimate the model on daily copper spot and forward prices using the Kalman filter methodology. Our findings confirm the link between the forward spread and volatility, but also show that the Gibson–Schwartz (1990) model prices forward contracts almost as well. In the pricing of option contracts, however, there are significant differences between the models.     

Regulation,recession, and bank lending behavior: The 1990 credit crunch

This article utilizes a pooled time-series and cross-section sample of banks to investigate the causes of the credit contraction which occurred during the 1990–1991 period. The methodology involves an econometric model which recognizes that banks' decisions regarding lending and capital are simultaneously determined. Bank lending behavior is modeled as being determined by a combination of economic conditions, loan quality problems, and capital growth. The results of the econometric tests are consistent with a multiplicity of factors contributing to the reduction in lending. The evidence suggests that the credit contraction of 1990–1991 cannot be explained solely as a result of recession and low capital levels. Changes in the supervisory climate and in bank capital regulation, perhaps coupled with independent changes in bankers' assessments of the risk climate, were likely responsible for a substantial part of the credit contraction.     

The Cyclic Behavior of the Greater London Office Market

This paper applies structural econometric methodology to estimating and forecasting the greater London office market. We assemble a time series covering the 1970–1995 period and estimate equations for net space absorption, movements in rents, and new building orders. Together with two identities, calculating the stock and vacancy, these form a complete model. We estimate a generally inelastic supply and demand relationship that yields a dynamically stable system. Without unanticipated economic shocks, the market is noncyclic. Therefore the building boom of the 1980s largely is delayed response to the huge growth in service jobs that occurred over that period.     

Stress testing and corporate finance

The article contributes to the literature on financial fragility, studying how macroeconomic shocks affect supply and demand in the corporate debt market. We take into account the effect of the competitive environment, as well as the risk level, measured by companies’ default rate. The model is estimated using data from the Harmonised BACH database of corporate accounts for large euro area countries on the 1993–2005 period, in order to carry out an illustrative stress testing exercise. We measure the impact of large macroeconomic shocks (a severe recession and a sharp increase in oil prices) on the equilibrium in the debt market.     

Managing budget emphasis through the explicit design of conditional budgetary slack

Budgetary slack plays an important role in the functioning of budgets in organizations. While theory has found negative as well as positive elements associated with its presence, the empirical literature has interpreted it as being dysfunctional to organizations. In this paper, we present empirical evidence on how a company purposefully budgeted additional financial resources with a motivation intention (Lukka. Budgetary biasing in organizations: Theoretical framework and empirical evidence. Accounting, Organizations and Society 13 (1998) 281–302) to facilitate the managers’ task in achieving the goals of the company. Using quantitative and qualitative data from four logistic sites of a disk drive manufacturer for 24 months, we examine how the company accepted more slack as the demand on business processes increased and goals other than budget targets––in particular, service quality––became harder to achieve. By allowing this practice, headquarters made it clear to local managers that product quality and service were at least as important as meeting budget objectives. We also find that not only was budgetary slack purposefully built during the budgeting process but also in the budgeting system itself through the underlying cost accounting assumptions. The results of this paper provide empirical evidence on the positive aspects of budgetary slack and on the role of cost accounting models used in the budgeting system to facilitate managerial work.