Immigration and structural change: Evidence from post-war Germany

Does immigration accelerate sectoral change from low- to high-productivity sectors? This paper analyzes the effect of one of the largest population movements in history, the influx of millions of German expellees to West Germany after World War II, on Germany's speed of transition away from low-productivity agriculture. A simple two-sector specific factor model, in which moving costs prevent the marginal product of labor to be equalized across sectors, predicts that expellee inflows boost output per worker by expanding the high-productivity non-agricultural sector but decrease output per worker within sectors. Using German district-level data from before and after the war, we find empirical support for these predictions.     

Openness and income: The roles of trade and migration

This paper explores the relationship between openness to trade, immigration, and income per person across countries. To address endogeneity concerns we extend the instrumental-variables strategy introduced by Frankel and Romer (1999). We build predictors of openness to immigration and to trade for each country by using information on bilateral geographical and cultural distance (while controlling for country size). Since geography may affect income through other channels, we also control for climate, disease environment, natural resources, and colonial origins. Most importantly, we also account for the roles of institutions and early development. Our instrumental-variables estimates provide evidence of a robust, positive effect of openness to immigration on long-run income per capita. In contrast, we are unable to establish an effect of trade openness on income. We also show that the effect of migration operates through an increase in total factor productivity, which appears to reflect increased diversity in productive skills and, to some extent, a higher rate of innovation.     

FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence

Much foreign direct investment (FDI) takes the form of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). It is commonplace in finance to view acquisitions as manifestations of the market for corporate control. Following on that insight we propose a model of FDI in which headquarters bid to control overseas assets. We derive an equation for bilateral FDI stocks that resembles the recently developed fixed effects approach to modelling bilateral trade flows. We estimate the model and use its parameters to construct benchmarks for evaluating multilateral inward and outward FDI.     

Migration and trade: Theory with an application to the Eastern-Western European integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intra-industry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occurred between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe.     

International diffusion and intellectual property rights: An empirical analysis

Does a stronger intellectual property rights regime lead to the faster diffusion of new products and technology? While there is a presumption that this is the case, our analysis of data on the international release patterns of Hollywood movies suggests a more complex story: although moderate standards of IPR encourage the spread of movies, either very weak or very strong property rights tend to slow the speed with which American movies are released abroad. This empirical finding is robust to a wide variety of specifications. Overall, it appears that while some recognition of IPR may encourage diffusion, very strong IPR may actually retard the speed of diffusion.     

Rethinking the area approach: Immigrants and the labor market in California

A framework that uses a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function with skill differentiation and integrated national labor markets has predictions for the employment effect of immigrants at the local level. The employment (rather than wage) response to immigration by skill in a state reveals the production substitutability-complementarity between native and immigrant labor. This, in turn, reveals the degree to which immigrants stimulate or depress the demand for native labor. To estimate this elasticity, I use a novel instrument based on demographic characteristics of total Central American migrants or of the Mexican Population to predict immigration by skill level within California. Looking at immigration to California between 1960 and 2005 these estimates support the assumption of a nationally integrated labor market by skill and they support the hypothesis that natives and immigrants in the same education-experience group are not perfectly substitutable. This explains the counter-intuitive fact that there is a zero correlation between immigration and wage and employment outcomes of natives in the state.     

Market imperfections, wealth inequality, and the distribution of trade gains

Globalization increasingly involves less-developed countries (LDCs), i.e., economies which usually suffer from severe imperfections in their financial systems. Taking these imperfections seriously, we analyze how credit frictions affect the distributive impact of trade liberalizations. We find that free trade significantly widens income differences among firm owners in LDCs: While wealthy entrepreneurs are better off, relatively poor business people lose. Intuitively, with integrated markets, profit margins shrink — which makes access to credit particularly difficult for the least-affluent agents. Richer entrepreneurs, by contrast, win because they can take advantage of new export opportunities. Our findings resonate well with a number of empirical regularities, in particular with the observation that some liberalizing LDCs have observed a surge in top-income shares.     

The effect of investor origin on firm performance: Domestic and foreign direct investment in the United States

This paper evaluates the causal relationship between the source of origin of FDI and the performance of the target firm. The empirical analysis uses new data on a comprehensive sample of public U.S. firms that received FDI between 1979 and 2006. To account for the possibility that performance differences arise due to the selection of superior target firm rather than the change in ownership, I use propensity score matching to create similar comparison groups of target firms prior to acquisitions. The analysis reveals three major findings. First, acquiring firms from industrialized countries lead to labor productivity increases of 13% in the target firm three years after the acquisition compared to targets acquired by domestic firms. Firms that received developing country firm acquisitions, on the other hand, exhibit lower labor productivity gains four years after acquisition, compared to targets acquired by domestic firms. Second, targets receiving FDI by firms from industrial and developing countries also experience increases in profits, compared with firms receiving acquisition by domestic firms from the United States. Third, compared with domestic acquisitions, foreign industrial firm acquisition FDI tends to increase their targets' employment and sales, whereas targets acquired by firms located in developing countries experience a decrease in both revenues and total number of employees. These findings suggest that target firms are subject to significantly different restructuring processes depending on the origin of the acquiring firm.     

Exporting behavior of foreign affiliates: Theory and evidence

Firms have increasingly conducted different stages of production in different countries. In particular, they may set up operations in low-cost countries (those operations are referred to as foreign affiliates in those countries) either as platforms for export or serving the growing markets there. What is the exporting behavior of foreign affiliates? In this paper, using data from China, we find that among foreign affiliates exporters are less productive than non-exporters. We then offer a theoretical explanation by incorporating into the standard firm heterogeneity model the possibility that firms could have different stages of production in different countries.     

Realizing the gains from trade: Export crops, marketing costs, and poverty

This paper explores the role of export costs in the process of poverty reduction in rural Africa. We claim that the marketing costs that emerge when the commercialization of export crops requires intermediaries can lead to lower participation into export cropping and, thus, to higher poverty. We test the model using data from the Uganda National Household Survey. We show that: i) farmers living in villages with fewer outlets for sales of agricultural exports are likely to be poorer than farmers residing in market-endowed villages; ii) market availability leads to increased household participation in export cropping (coffee, tea, cotton, fruits); iii) households engaged in export cropping are less likely to be poor than subsistence-based households. We conclude that the availability of markets for agricultural export crops help realize the gains from trade. This result uncovers the role of complementary factors that provide market access and reduce marketing costs as key building blocks in the link between the gains from export opportunities and the poor.     

Product and process productivity: Implications for quality choice and conditional exporter premia

We develop a model of international trade with two dimensions of firm heterogeneity. The first dimension is “process productivity”, which is how we denote the standard concept of productivity as modeled in the literature. The second one is “product productivity”, defined as firms' ability to develop high-quality products spending small fixed outlays. The distinction between these two sources of productivity, together with the assumption that iceberg trade costs decrease with quality, delivers various conditional exporter premia as theoretical predictions. Conditional on size, exporters sell higher quality products, charge higher prices, pay higher input prices and higher wages, and use capital more intensively. Some of these predictions had already been documented in the empirical literature but lacked a theoretical framework for properly interpreting them. We conduct systematic tests of these predictions using manufacturing establishment data for India, the U.S., Chile, and Colombia, and find strong support for the model.     

Gunboats, reputation, and sovereign repayment: lessons from the Southern Confederacy

Many states that formed the Southern Confederacy defaulted on sovereign debt sold in international capital markets during the 1840s. The Confederacy also elected President Jefferson Davis, who openly advocated the repudiation of U.S. states' debts while a member of Congress. Despite its poor credit record, the Confederate government managed to float cotton bonds in England that constituted under 2% of its expenditures. The bonds were largely issued to settle overdue debts with gun contractors who had cut off trade credit. The South serviced the bonds as late as March 1865, a time of domestic hyperinflation and weeks before the fall of Richmond. Although the Confederate experience shows that trade sanctions can promote debt repayment, the gunboat model can only account for a small amount of lending. A reputation or another type of sanction would be necessary to support higher levels of lending in international capital markets.     

Economic transformation, population growth and the long-run world income distribution

We present and calibrate a model where trade with advanced economies spurs development, and trade opportunities depend on the relative population in advanced and developing countries. As developing countries become advanced, prospects improve for the remaining developing countries. If population growth differentials between developing and advanced economies are small, economic development accelerates over time. Otherwise, long-run global prosperity requires a sufficiently large initial population in advanced countries. More open countries develop faster, but more openness by all developing countries may only modestly increase their aggregate growth. China's development may hurt developing countries in the short-run, but improves their long-run prospects.     

Trade, wages, and the political economy of trade protection: evidence from the Colombian trade reforms

Worker industry affiliation plays a crucial role in how trade policy affects wages in many trade models. Yet, most research has focused on how trade policy affects wages by altering the economy-wide returns to a specific worker characteristic (i.e., skill or education) rather than through worker industry affiliation. This paper exploits drastic trade liberalizations in Colombia in the 1980s and 1990s to investigate the relationship between protection and industry wage premiums. We relate wage premiums to trade policy in an empirical framework that accounts for the political economy of trade protection. Accounting for time-invariant political economy factors is critical. When we do not control for unobserved time-invariant industry characteristics, we find that workers in protected sectors earn less than workers with similar observable characteristics in unprotected sectors. Allowing for industry fixed effects reverses the result: trade protection increases relative wages. This positive relationship persists when we instrument for tariff changes. Our results are in line with short- and medium-run models of trade where labor is immobile across sectors or, alternatively, with the existence of industry rents that are reduced by trade liberalization. In the context of the current debate on the rising income inequality in developing countries, our findings point to a source of disparity beyond the well-documented rise in the economy-wide skill premium: because tariff reductions were proportionately larger in sectors employing a high fraction of less-skilled workers, the decrease in the wage premiums in these sectors affected such workers disproportionately.     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.     

Illegal entrepreneurship experience: Does it make a difference for business performance and motivation?

Existing studies show a positive relationship between entrepreneurs' business performance and their conventional human capital as measured by previous business experience and formal education. In this paper, we explore whether illegal entrepreneurship experience (IEE), an unconventional form of human capital, is related to the performance and motivation of entrepreneurs operating legal businesses in a transition context. Using regression techniques on a sample of 399 private business owners in Lithuania, we find that, in general, IEE is significantly and positively associated with subjective measures of business motivation. Moreover, younger entrepreneurs benefit from their IEE in terms of business performance, indicating that they have been more successful than older entrepreneurs in transferring their IEE to a market oriented setting. In addition, IEE and business performance are positively related for entrepreneurs who started completely new legal businesses. Thus, our research partially supports the notion that prior experience in the black or gray market may signal and provide valuable human capital for legal enterprising.     

Factor Intensity,product switching,and productivity: Evidence from Chinese exporters

This paper analyzes how a firm's specialization in its core products after exporting affects its factor intensity and productivity. Using Chinese manufacturing firm data for the 1998–2007 period, we find that firms become less capital-intensive but more productive after exporting, compared to non-exporters that share similar ex ante characteristics. To rationalize these findings that contrast with existing studies, we develop a variant of the model by Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2010, 2011) to consider firms producing multiple products with varying capital intensity. The model predicts that when a firm in a labor-abundant country starts exporting, it specializes in its core competencies by allocating more resources to produce more labor-intensive products. Firm ex ante productivity is associated with a smaller decline in capital intensity after exporting. A sharper post-export decline in capital intensity is associated with a larger increase in measured total factor productivity. We find firm-level evidence supporting these predictions. Using transaction-level data for the 2000–2006 period, we show that Chinese new exporters add products that are less capital-intensive than their existing products and drop those that are more capital-intensive in subsequent years.     

FDI inflow as an international business operation by MNCs and economic growth: An empirical study on Turkey

The issue of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been affecting the world economy for years and is a considerable subject for both developed and developing countries. FDI is the fixed form of international business operation made across the national borders made mostly by the multi national corporations (MNCs). The positive impact of FDI inflow in a host country is expected to emerge as capital accumulation, technology transfer, know-how acquisition, innovative capacity and economic growth eventually. In this study, it is aimed to address the FDI literature depending on comprehensive international publications and then to analyze the FDI inflow and GDP growth in Turkey with econometric methods.The relation between FDI inflow and GDP growth is analyzed by using the Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. Afterwards, a regression equation is estimated by using the ordinary least squares method (OLS). Prior to applying the Cointegration test, the stationarity and integration degrees of the series are determined by the augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF). Consequently, resting on the results of entire analysis, it is possible to mention that no significant relation is determined between the FDI inflow and GDP growth in Turkey both in the short and long run.     

Buyer-seller relationships in international trade: Evidence from U.S. States' exports and business-class travel

International trade has become increasingly dependent on the transmission of complex information, often realized via face-to-face communication. This paper provides novel evidence for the importance of in-person business meetings in international trade. Interactions among trade partners entail a fixed cost of trade, but at the same time they generate relationship capital, which adds bilateral specific value to the traded products. Differences in the face-to-face communication intensity of traded goods, bilateral travel costs and foreign market size determine the optimal amount of interaction between trade partners. Using U.S. state level data on international business-class air travel as a measure of in-person business meetings, I find robust evidence that the demand for business-class air travel is directly related to volume and composition of exports in differentiated products. I also find that trade flows in R&D intensive manufactures and goods facing contractual frictions are most dependent on face-to-face meetings. The econometric identification exploits the cross-state variation in bilateral exports and business-class air travelers by foreign country and time period, circumventing any spurious correlation induced by cross-country differences driving aggregate travel and trade patterns.     

Firm heterogeneity and technology transfers to local suppliers: Disentangling the effects of foreign ownership,technology gap and absorptive capacity

In this paper, I present novel microeconomic evidence on the effects of firm heterogeneity on the creation and impact of technology transfers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local suppliers in a developing country setting. The main findings are threefold. First, FDI firms are significantly more involved in knowledge transfer activities than domestic producer firms. In particular, FDI firms offer more technological support, support with a direct positive impact on production processes of local suppliers. Second, the type of ownership also influences the effect of the technology gap on technology transfers. A large technology gap between a producer firm and its suppliers lowers the provision of support; however, FDI firms offer more technological support to their suppliers of material inputs when the technology gap is large. Independent of the support that the suppliers receive, foreign ownership of client firms and a large technology gap make it more likely that suppliers experience large positive impacts. Third, the level of absorptive capacity of local suppliers is also important for the impact of the technology transfers, confirming the notion that heterogeneity among both producer firms and local suppliers affect the level, nature and impact of local technology transfers.