Technology, endowments, and the factor content of bilateral trade

We derive testable restrictions relating the factor content of bilateral trade to bilateral differences in technology and endowments. This departs from the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek theorem which compares the factor content of net trade with factor abundance. We test the theoretical restrictions using a unique dataset that covers 41 developed and developing countries with disparate endowments and technology. We find evidence supporting the predictions. In addition: (1) The factor content predictions perform best for country pairs with larger endowment differences, and (2) for trade between capital-abundant countries, Ricardian international technology differences matter more than Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment differences.     

The structure of factor content predictions

The last decade witnessed an explosion of research into the impact of international technology differences on the factor content of trade. Yet the literature has failed to confront two pivotal issues. First, with international technology differences and traded intermediate inputs, there is no existing definition of the factor content of trade that is compatible with Vanek's factor content prediction. We fill this gap. Second, as Helpman and Krugman (1985) showed, many models beyond Heckscher-Ohlin imply the Vanek prediction. Thus, absent a complete list of these models, we do not fully know what models are being tested when the Vanek prediction is tested. We completely characterize the class of models being tested by providing a familiar consumption similarity condition that is necessary and sufficient for a robust Vanek prediction. Finally, we reassess the performance of the prediction using the correct factor content definition and input-output tables for 41 countries. We find that the prediction performs well except for the presence of missing trade. Further, missing trade is not pervasive: it is associated entirely with ‘home bias’ in the consumption of agricultural goods, government services and construction.     

Specialization, factor accumulation and development

We estimate the effect of factor proportions on the pattern of manufacturing specialization in a cross-section of OECD countries, taking into account that factor accumulation responds to productivity. We show that the failure to control for productivity differences produces biased estimates. Our model explains 2/3 of the observed differences in the pattern of specialization between the poorest and richest OECD countries. However, because factor proportions and the pattern of specialization co-move in the development process, their strong empirical relationship is not sufficient to determine whether specialization is driven by factor proportions, or by other mechanisms also correlated with level of development.     

FDI versus Exports: Multiple Host Countries and Empirical Evidence

There are two main options for companies to serve foreign markets: exports and foreign direct investment (FDI). Based on the Helpman et al. (2004) model for multiple host countries, this paper derives a clear theoretical prediction for the decision between both strategies. A bivariate probit model is estimated using a large data set of European companies to analyse the probability of using one or the other strategy. The empirical evidence indicates that more productive firms less (more) probably use the export (FDI) strategy to serve foreign markets. Moreover, a considerable number of companies use a combination of both the strategies to serve foreign markets, which is in line with a multiple‐country model.     

Outward FDI and Productivity: Micro‐evidence from Slovenia

This paper uses a rich data set of Slovenian manufacturing firms active in the period 1994–2002 that contains information on outward FDI and exports to different markets in order to test three empirical hypotheses that relate the decision for outward FDI to total factor productivity. First, the evidence supports the hypothesis proposed by Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (2004) that more productive firms are more likely to invest in a foreign affiliate. Second, the hypothesis proposed by Head and Ries (2003 ) that less productive firms may be encouraged to invest in low‐income countries is rejected by the data. However, the main contribution of the paper is to confirm the third hypothesis that required firm's productivity increases with the number of markets that the firm serves, i.e. there is a positive relationship between the number of a firm's foreign affiliates and its total factor productivity.     

International productivity and factor price comparisons

Using OECD input–output tables for a diverse group of 33 countries in the year 2000 and estimates of each country's factor stocks, I compute factor payments for aggregate labor and capital with value-added data adjusted for self-employment by sector. Using a detailed technology matrix for the U.S., I compute factor-specific productivity measures in each country relative to the U.S., and show that these measures are strongly correlated with the pattern of wages and rental rates. I find that many low income countries with low labor productivity have relatively high capital productivity. I also find a distinctive pattern between factor productivity and factor payments depending on whether a country has a high or low wage-rental ratio compared to the U.S. I show these findings are consistent with the existence of sector-based differences in production technology and complementarities between factors.     

International differences in production techniques: Implications for the factor content of trade

This paper examines how production techniques differ across countries, factors, and industries and considers its implications for previous empirical evidence on the Vanek prediction. I find that production techniques differ substantially across countries and factors, but differ much less across industries within a country. Davis and Weinstein (2001) argue that modeling cross-industry differences (multiple-cone specialization) improves the fit of the Vanek prediction; however, their test statistics are unchanged when one restricts techniques to be identical across industries within a country. Thus, the bulk of world factor content of trade does not arise from specialization.     

Diversification cones, trade costs and factor market linkages

This paper finds non-uniform differences in the distribution functions of factor usage intensities among 10 rich OECD countries. The 10 countries form three distinct groups such that the between-group differences are more pronounced than within-group differences and capital-abundant countries are in capital-abundant groups. The estimation works even if the same industry codes represent different goods across countries in the data. The finding is consistent with the multiple-cone factor proportions theory with zero trade costs with each group being one cone. An alternative interpretation is non-zero trade costs. Both interpretations imply weak factor market linkages between the countries in different groups.     

Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries

Using a new dataset on imports of technology and total factor productivity (TFP) over 135 years for the OECD countries, this paper tests whether knowledge has been transmitted internationally through the channel of trade. The empirical estimates show that there is a robust relationship between TFP and imports of knowledge and that 93% of the increase in TFP over the past century has been solely due to imports of knowledge. Furthermore, it is shown that knowledge spillovers have been an important contributing factor behind the TFP convergence among the OECD countries over the period 1870 to 2004.     

Labor market institutions,firm-specific skills,and trade patterns

This paper studies how a country's labor market institutions, by affecting workers' skill acquisition, can shape its export patterns. I develop an open-economy model in which workers undertake non-contractible activities to acquire firm-specific skills on the job. In the model, labor market protection raises workers' incentives to acquire firm-specific skills relative to general skills, turning labor laws into a source of comparative advantage. In particular, the model shows that countries with more protective labor laws export relatively more in firm-specific skill-intensive sectors at both the intensive and extensive margins. To test the theoretical predictions, I construct sector proxies for the firm-specific and industry-specific skill intensity by estimating returns to firm tenure and industry tenure for different U.S. manufacturing sectors during the 1974–1993 period. By estimating sector-level gravity equations for 84 countries using the Helpman–Melitz–Rubinstein (2008) framework, I find evidence supporting the predicted effects of labor market institutions at both margins of exports.     

Asymmetric cultural discounting and pattern of trade in cultural products: Empirical evidence in motion pictures

We extend the seminal home market effect model of Helpman and Krugman (Market structure and foreign trade, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1985) by incorporating asymmetric cultural discounting. In addition to the home market effect, our model predicts that a country subject to a relatively lower cultural discount factor becomes a net exporter as trade liberalisation accelerates. Using international box office revenues in the motion picture industry and developing a measure of asymmetric cultural discount based on tourist‐arrival statistics, we find empirical support for this hypothesis. Our model provides an explanation for the continued cultural dominance of smaller English‐speaking countries in larger non‐English‐speaking countries, which cannot be explained by the home market effect alone.     

国际双边发展援助对FDI的影响研究——基于17个OECD国家对华发展援助的实证

本文运用扩展的Solow模型阐述了援助影响FDI的理论机制,并以中国为研究主体,以17个OECD国家的数据为样本,实证分析了双边发展援助对FDI的短期、中期和长期效应。实证结果显示:在短期,17个OECD国家的对华发展援助挤出了这些国家对中国的FDI,但在中长期促进了这些国家对中国的FDI,并且时间越长,促进效应越强。因此,发达国家向中国投入发展援助是有效的。双方应充分利用这种有效性,发达国家现期不适宜取消对华发展援助,中国应积极寻求双边发展援助来促进新兴产业和中西部地区的发展。     

The Uneven Pace of Deindustrialisation in the OECD

Throughout the OECD, the period since the 1970s saw a secular decline in manufacturing's share of GDP and a secular rise in the share of services. Despite this being a central feature of growth, the economic forces behind deindustrialisation and the reasons why its pace varied so markedly across OECD countries are not well understood. Adopting an econometric approach founded in neoclassical production theory, we provide an empirical analysis of the role of changes in relative prices, technology and factor endowments in driving changes in production structure. The speed of adjustment to changes in these determinants of production structure varies across OECD countries and is correlated with levels of employment protection.     

Multinational Corporations and the Social Contract

The constitutions of many nations have been explicitly or implicitly founded upon principles of the social contract derived from Thomas Hobbes. The Hobbesian egoism at the base of the contract fairly accurately represents the structure of market enterprise. A contractarian analysis may, then, allow for justified or rationally acceptable universal standards to which businesses should conform. This paper proposes general rational restrictions upon multi-national enterprises, and includes a critique of unjustified restrictions recently proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). I propose restrictions that may be tighter than the OECD and international law currently demand, because reason requires that the activities of enterprises accord with standards of environmental and governmental sustainability in addition to consortium, national law and international law agreements. I argue that it is justifiable that indictments may be presented by a citizen or a government against the local arm of a multinational enterprise in response to violations committed by an arm within a different country.     

Effects of the preference for environmental quality on the export competition between China and OECD countries

This study examines how importers’ preferences for environmentally friendly products influence the effect of China’s export growth on the exports of OECD countries to third markets. The effect of China’s export growth is systematically investigated using the theoretical gravity model, which assumes that importers’ environmental preferences are heterogeneous among countries. A new measure is also proposed to represent importers’ revealed preferences for environmental quality across countries. Panel data consisting of observations for 30 OECD exporting countries and 60 importing countries over the 2000–10 period confirm that the crowding‐out effect of China’s export growth on the exports of OECD countries observed in markets for consumption goods and the dampening effect observed in markets for intermediate goods are becoming weaker as the importer preference for environmental quality becomes stronger.     

Patterns of trade restrictiveness in online platforms: A first look

This paper develops a digital platform restrictiveness index for 64 countries based on ECIPE’s Digital Trade Estimates database and the Digital Trade Restrictiveness Index. We identify specific restrictions that affect online platforms with a focus on online search, e-commerce and social media. The results show that both OECD and non-OECD countries show high levels of trade restrictions on online platforms. Moreover, some of the most restricted countries are characterised by large markets, signifying that a substantial part of the global economy gravitates towards restricting online platforms. Based on the platform restrictiveness index, we perform an econometric analysis showing that trade restrictions for online platforms are significantly associated with lower contributions of the ICT sector to productivity growth in the entire economy. The results suggest that reducing restrictions on online platforms can increase the ICT’s contribution to overall productivity growth towards a level seen before the global financial crisis. Sectors that would benefit the most are those that make wider use of online platforms and the Internet, including information services, business services and financial services.     

Firm heterogeneity and the structure of U.S. multinational activity

We use firm-level data for U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the model of firm heterogeneity presented in Helpman, Melitz, and Yeaple [Helpman, E., Melitz, M., Yeaple, S., 2004. Exports versus FDI with heterogeneous firms. The American Economic Review 94 (1), 300-316.] to make four empirical contributions. First, we show that the most productive U.S. firms invest in a larger number of foreign countries and sell more in each country in which they operate. Second, we assess the importance of firm heterogeneity in the structure of MNE activity. Third, we use the model to identify the mechanisms through which country characteristics affect the structure of MNE activity. Finally, we assess the model's shortcomings in order to inform the development of new theory.     

Specialization dynamics

This paper proposes a new empirical framework for analyzing specialization dynamics. A country’s pattern of specialization is viewed as a distribution across sectors, and statistical techniques for analyzing the evolution of this entire distribution are employed. The empirical framework is implemented using data on 20 industries in seven OECD countries since 1970. We find substantial mobility in patterns of specialization. Over time horizons of 5 years, this is largely explained by forces common across countries, including world prices and common changes in technical efficiency. Over longer time horizons, country-specific changes in factor endowments become more important. There is no evidence of an increase in countries’ overall degree of specialization.     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.