What Drives Pension Indexation in Turbulent Times? An Empirical Examination of Dutch Pension Funds

This paper identifies the key factors influencing indexation decisions in turbulent economic times within defined benefit plans using a unique panel dataset of 166 Dutch pension funds from 2007 to 2010. Key drivers of indexation are the funding ratio, inflation and real wage growth. The type of pension fund and the interest rate exposure are also statistically significant, although the latter effect is nonlinear. The asset allocation has no significant effect on the level of provided indexation as this is already captured by the funding ratio. We also examine the relation between policy ladders and the actual level of provided indexation. This study finds that a policy ladder with an upper limit equal to a 100 % real funding ratio is able to predict the actual level of indexation more accurately than a ladder with an upper limit based on a pension fund’s required nominal funding ratio. The latter tends to overestimate the actual level of indexation.     

Market Valuation,Pension Fund Policy and Contribution Volatility

Summary Market valuation is becoming more and more popular, both in accounting and regulation, as well as in academic circles. For pension funds and their participants, the knowledge that market-valued pension liabilities can indeed be transferred to a third party, if necessary, is a great virtue. Using a simulation model, this paper demonstrates the implicit costs and benefits of using market valuation for a typical Dutch pension fund, which offers a guaranteed average pay nominal pension with conditional indexation. The impact turns out to be fairly small, if fixed discount rates are still used for conditional rights. However, if market valuation is used for both unconditional and conditional rights, contribution volatility increases significantly. A remedy is to increase the duration of assets considerably. It is not clear, though, whether this option is available for large pension funds given the limited supply of long-term bonds. This paper benefited from discussions at seminars at DNB, PVK, ABP and CPB. We are grateful to Jan-Marc Berk, Dirk Broeders, and Peter van Els for useful suggestions and comments on a previous version of the paper. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of De Nederlandsche Bank.     

不同类型企业的年金计划模式选择之探讨

中国企业年金市场已初步形成,但发展依然缓慢,多为大型国企所带动,中小企业的参与度不高。缺乏多样化的年金计划模式供不同的企业选择,成为制约企业年金发展的重要原因之一。文章从不同类型企业的实际需求出发,在深入分析企业选择年金计划影响因素的基础上,结合企业年金不同计划模式的特点,对国有大型企业、三资跨国企业、中小型股份制企业和民营企业四种不同类型企业各自适用的年金计划模式进行了探讨。     

Designing an Alternative Public Pension Scheme: A Korean Case Study

The trends of ageing population and slow economic growth have become a major concern for public pension schemes with the defined benefit (DB) type. To mitigate the impact of this trend and secure long-term financial sustainability, several countries have recently adopted notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes. In this paper, we show how to apply an NDC scheme to the public pension system of Korea, arguably the fastest ageing country. In particular, we create a new pension system by combining the current Korean pension scheme and an NDC. Through simulations it is shown that the proposed scheme can reduce the financial instability caused by the changes in demographic and economic factors, while retaining the income redistribution component. We further consider applying a German-type automatic balancing mechanism to the proposed scheme, by using the average income to determine the return rate of the fund, to make it sustainable in the long term.     

金融冲击、货币政策与宏观审慎政策—基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

通过建立包含房地产市场金融冲击的NK-DSGE模型,考察了我国货币政策与宏观审慎政策的效果。通过比较不同政策机制下金融冲击的脉冲响应函数可以发现,宏观审慎政策的引入缓和了金融冲击的效应,并且可以同时实现稳定物价和稳定金融系统的目的。社会福利分析的结果表明：(1)金融冲击下,仅对产出缺口和通胀做出反应的政策具有最低的社会福利水平;(2)如果货币政策考虑信贷市场,并同时使用反周期性宏观审慎政策,那么社会福利将得到明显的提高。这意味着金融冲击下,政府应该积极行使对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策相结合的政策机制。当前,在房地产市场整体不景气的背景下,我国政府积极利用金融冲击对房地产市场进行调控。因此,采用对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策将具有相对较好的政策效果。     

The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

This paper analyzes the impact of an increase in the price of energy (oil) on the growth and welfare of a small developing economy. We consider the extent to which the impacts of energy price shocks depend upon the economy’s internal production structure and its access to the world financial market. We find that the effect on the long-run growth rate depends heavily on the former and is independent of the latter. The effect of accessibility to the world financial market on long-run welfare depends heavily on the elasticity of substitution in production. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations, thereby enabling us to characterize the short-run dynamics. Overall, the simulations can replicate much of the empirical evidence used to characterize the effects of the recent oil price increases on the economy. They also highlight the sensitivity of the effect of the energy price to the elasticity of substitution.     

Generational Accounting, Solidarity and Pension Losses

Summary The stock market collapse led to political tensions between generations due to the fuzzy definition of the property rights over the pension funds’ wealth. The problem is best resolved by the introduction of generational accounts. Modern consumption and portfolio theory shows that the younger generations should have the higher equity exposure due to their human capital. Stock market losses should be distributed smoothly over lifetime consumption by adjusting both current contributions and future entitlements. We present expressions for the substantial welfare losses involved in various practically relevant deviations from the optimal system. We are grateful to stimulating suggestions by Lans Bovenberg, Casper van Ewijk, Frank de Jong and by two anonymous referees.     

WELFARE GAINS OF AID INDEXATION IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES

Foreign-aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks, like a change in the terms of trade, can significantly improve the welfare of an aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms-of-trade shocks can reduce the cost of business-cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by 4% of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by 3% without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.     

Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research

This paper surveys recent advances in the field of computable general and partial equilibrium models dealing with pension issues that take into account various aspects of uncertainty. Whereas previous quantitative research with deterministic models solely focussed on efficiency losses due to labor market distortions from pay-as-you-go (paygo) financing, stochastic simulation models highlight the insurance effects of social security systems and allow to quantify the welfare consequences from myopic behavior. The results from these studies challenge the common wisdom about the cost and benefits of social security. While previous studies typically either recommended a move towards a more funded system or proposed a tight tax-benefit linkage, recent results from stochastic models indicate that welfare losses due to reduced insurance coverage compensate the gains due to improved labor market incentives. Consequently, paygo financing and progressive benefit formulas should not be eliminated on pure efficiency grounds. Current research tries to qualify whether this conclusion is robust in models with private insurance institutions and/or macroeconomic risks.     

Pareto Optimal Pension Risk Allocations

De Economist - We consider a funded pension system where collective risks, in a simple Black-Scholes financial market, are allocated to the retirement savings of individual participants. In...     

Market integration and imperfect competition in labor and product markets

We analyze the consequences of product market integration in a simple two-country, two-sector, general-equilibrium model with imperfect competition due to economies of scale. In contrast to the existing literature we take explicit account of the labor-market structures in the integrating economies. It turns out that the specific labor-market structures are very important for how integration affects total production and product market structure in a particular economy. However, integration always gives rise to a welfare gain in both economies.I have benefitted from comments by an anonymous referee, a coeditor of this journal, and by participants in a workshop arranged by CIE in April 1992, at the University of Aarhus, and by participants at the EEA conference in Dublin 1992.     

不同的老龄化,不同的发展模式

从人口老龄化到社会老龄化美国用71年,中国仅用21年。美国养老基金2010年达到18.89万亿美元,占全球总量的63%,是其GDP的120%;中国养老基金加总额为1.5万亿元人民币,是美国养老基金的1.27%。美国的养老基金从中国经济增长中得到了实惠;而中国养老基金由于空账运行、缺乏市场运作,没有分享到经济发展的成果。中国亟待创造条件让更多国民拥有财产性收入,特别是养老基金;应提高公民的养老金教育和管理能力,政府治理养老金市场的能力。     

Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Balanced-budget Reforms of Korea’s National Pension System

This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability of the benchmark pension system in Korea, which will come into effect in 2028 following the 2007 pension reforms, and the welfare effects of pension reforms aimed at a balanced budget over the life cycle. To this end, we measure the lifetime pension deficit, i.e. the difference between total pension benefits and total pension contributions in an individual’s lifetime. We find that the benchmark pension system is expected to run an average lifetime deficit of 22.36 million won (approximately $22,360), and the current pension fund is unlikely to finance the sum of future deficits. The optimal pension reform for the zero average lifetime deficit reduces social welfare by as much as a 2.06% fall in consumption and is characterised with the contribution rate of 20.3% and an average replacement rate of 66.4%. These values are much higher than the respective benchmark values, 9% and 40%, because the increase in pension benefits, combined with the increase in pension contributions, can reduce the income inequality due to the progressivity of pension benefits and the proportionality of pension contributions.     

How to Share Our Risks Efficiently? Principles for Optimal Social Insurance and Pension Provision

The efficient organisation of social insurance is an important problem for modern societies. The paper discusses evidence that shocks in labour income have largely persistent effects and analyses the implications of this observation for the optimal design of institutions for wage contracting, social security, and pensions. In an optimal contract, wages reflect variations in individual productivity for incentives reasons. However, the optimal contract insures workers against firm specific shocks. These can better be born by shareholders who can diversify risks on capital markets. Progressive income taxation provides further insurance. On top of that there is scope for additional insurance based on ‘verifiable’ information on unemployment and health conditions. As final form of ‘insurance’, the paper analyzes the role of self-insurance. Income shocks can be absorbed partially by precautionary saving. The individual’s saving plans for retirement and for precaution are, therefore, related issues. In an institutional setting with mandatory saving for retirement, an integration of disability and unemployment insurance on the one hand and the pension system on the other hand in a lifetime savings account allows for this interrelation. The paper analyzes how to deal with the uncertainty in the return on savings in the framework of a lifetime saving account.     

Equity Valuation Effects of the Pension Protection Act of 2006*

We investigate the equity valuation effects of the Pension Protection Act of 2006 (PPA 2006). The PPA 2006 has two main provisions: (1) firms must fully fund their pension plans within seven years (previously allowed 30 years to fund 90 percent of the pension liability) and (2) firms receive a tax deduction for contributions up to 150 percent of the pension liability (previously 100 percent). After controlling for the effects of SFAS 158, growth opportunities, the cost of external funds, and other information released during our sample period, we examine pension firms’ abnormal returns surrounding key dates in the legislative process leading to the adoption of the PPA 2006. First, we find a mean negative abnormal return of ?4.20 percent during the period in which the PPA 2006 was first voted on by Congress. The mean (median) firm in our sample experienced a $310 million ($60 million) decline in market capitalization. Second, we find that the valuation effect was more negative for firms with larger unfunded pension liabilities and larger capital expenditure requirements, while firms with higher marginal tax rates experienced a positive effect. Third, we find no evidence of differential valuation effects for firms in different “at risk” categories as defined by the PPA 2006. Finally, we find a significant number of pension freezes occurred during our sample period. Our results are stronger when excluding these firms from our sample.     

公共养老基金治理中的特殊问题

公共养老基金也存在类似公司领域的控制权与所有权的分问题,需要通过科学的治理结构来提高管理效率,保障利益相关者的利最大化。但公共养老基金治理中存在一系列特殊问题,如委托代理系的复杂性,委托代理风险的特殊表现,以及外部治理机制的实效等,于这些原因,公共养老基金更应强化治理主体的建构及内部控制机制运用。本文也基于这些分析对我国的全国社保基金理事会的治理结构行了审视。     

Securities market response to pension fund termination*

Abstract. Capital market data are used to investigate the termination announcement effect of over- and underfunded corporate pension plans. Significant positive abnormal returns are initially observed for samples of both over- and underfunded plan terminations; however, after segmenting the samples on the basis of publicly available information regarding a firm's financial condition, significant returns are observed only for financially distressed subsamples. The evidence suggests that the property rights to pension fund assets and liabilities reside fully with the sponsoring firm, and that financially distressed firms may effect a wealth transfer to shareholders by fund termination. Résumé. Les auteurs utilisent les données relatives au marché financier pour analyser l'incidence des avis de discontinuation de régimes de retraite surcapitalisés et sous-capitalisés de sociétés. Des rendements positifs irréguliers importants sont d'abord observés pour des échantillons de cas de discontinuation de régimes surcapitalisés ainsi que sous-capitalisés; toutefois, après une segmentation des échantillons à partir de l'information mise à la disposition du public concernant la situation financière de la société, des rendements importants sont observés seulement pour les sous-échantillons de sociétés en difficulté financière. Les résultats donnent à penser que les éléments d'actif et de passif de la caisse de retraite échoient entièrement à la société promotrice et que les sociétés en difficulté financière peuvent procéder à un transfert de richesses au profit des actionnaires par voie de discontinuation du régime.     

NDC(名义账户制)模式——完善我国养老保险改革的一种新思路

我国从1991年实行养老保险改革开始到现在,基本上确定了从现收现付制向部分积累制转轨的方向。但是,时至今日仍然不能很好地解决为了做实个人账户而产生的养老金缺口问题。本文认为,现行养老保险制度中利用财政补贴弥补养老金不足、统一实行基金管理提高运营效率以及动用国有资产存量支付转轨成本三大措施均存在不合理因素。因此,借鉴NDC(名义账户制)模式不失为一种新的思路。     

社会保障基金海外投资分析

本文分析了全国社会保障基金目前的投资运营状况,并通过资产组合理论讨论了海外投资的重要意义;同时研究了12个OECD国家和3个新兴市场国家的养老基金海外投资情况,以及爱尔兰和挪威养老储备基金的案例,并从中借鉴成功做法和有益经验。文章指出,投资于海外资本市场是社保基金分散风险、保证收益的最佳途径,并在最后对海外投资策略提出建议。     

Risk Control of Pension Fund Management in China

Based on an analysis of China's current pension system, the present paper indicates that risk control of pension fund management is a serious policy challenge for the Chinese Government. Although some reform efforts have been made, there are still serious institutional and capital market risks that are difficult to overcome but are key in the success of China's pension reform. To ensure a smooth transition in pension reform, China not only needs to build a better institutional framework and facilitate capital market development, but also raise the risk awareness of individual pensioners.