Who in Brazil Will Gain from Global Trade Reforms?

The potential impacts of multilateral trade liberalisation on developing countries are the subject of numerous controversies. One particular concern is that Brazil, a major agricultural exporter and a country with one of the world's most unequal income distributions, will reap a substantial share of the potential benefits to developing countries from agricultural trade reform, and that most of those benefits will go to large‐scale commercial farmers rather than to the country's smallholders. This claim is explored via a global general equilibrium model and a national model of Brazil containing multiple agricultural and non‐agricultural households. Brazil is found to account for nearly one‐half of all the benefits to developing countries deriving from global agricultural trade reform. These gains are associated with improvements in the welfare of each group and a lower incidence of poverty. Large‐scale producers gain more than smallholders as they tend to be relatively specialised in export products, but there are important gains to agricultural employees, who are relatively poor, and to urban households, who benefit from the expansion of the agro‐food sector. Overall, there is no discernible impact on income inequality, and no evidence that the gains to commercial farmers occur at the expense of poorer households.     

India's Food Security Strategy and its Impact on the Food Surplus State of Punjab

Based upon both primary data obtained from farmers and secondary data from government publications and Web sites this study examines the country's food security status, role of domestic food production to enhance national food security, and its impact upon the agricultural sector in the surplus agrarian region state of Punjab. Research indicates that the poverty level continues to be high and it varies across regions. The Public Distribution System constitutes a key element of food security in the country. It has come to rely upon internal procurement with the widespread dissemination of green revolution technology accompanied by a supportive policy framework. Government procures both wheat and rice from the surplus regions to feed the PDS. The state of Punjab has emerged a major contributor for both these crops. As this has heavily tilted the cropping patterns toward these crops, farmers have come to face several environmental problems, particularly that of water depletion. Due to low socioeconomic profiles and the lack of adequate market infrastructure, farmers are unable to make large-scale shifts in their cropping patterns. Thus it has endangered farmers' own food security, which may create a new dimension to food security in these countries.     

社会资本异质性与农村减贫成效差异——基于收入增长和差距缩小的双重视角分析

中国农村是一个典型的“关系社会”,社会资本对于信息分享和资源配置具有较强的干预。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查2016年的农村样本数据,采用分位数回归方法,从收入增长与收入差距缩小的双重视角考察社会资本对中国农村贫困户减贫的影响。研究结果显示:2010-2016年间,中国农村的贫困发生率呈逐年下降趋势,这一趋势主要源于收入增长,而不是收入差距缩小。社会网络、社会参与和社会信任所体现的社会资本可以显著提高农户的收入水平,有效发挥减贫作用。就缩小收入差距的视角看,社会网络对农村的减贫作用比社会参与和社会信任更为显著。注重农村贫困人口社会资本的构建,尤其是提高贫困农户的社会网络质量,对于农村减贫具有重要的政策意义。     

Trade liberalization and the allocation of labor between households and markets in a poor country

We consider the relationship between relative price changes and the allocation of labor between households and the formal wage labor market in the context of Vietnam's liberalization of its rice trade in the 1990s. Many individuals in poor economies work within their own household rather than in formal labor markets. We find that larger rice price increases in a community are associated with declines in hours adults devote to work within the household and increases in time spent in the wage labor market. We also observe increased specialization in household economic activities accompanying these shifts in hours towards wage work. Our results are consistent with the idea that a growth in the extent of the market shifts production and labor from households to markets during development, thereby inducing gains from specialization. Thus, the reallocation of labor between households and markets in response to a trade liberalization might be an important component in understanding the link between trade and growth in very poor economies, currently the focus of the Doha WTO negotiation round.     

Informal export barriers and poverty

This paper investigates the poverty impacts of informal export barriers like transport costs, cumbersome customs practices, costly regulations and bribes. In low-income countries, these informal barriers act as export taxes that distort the efficient allocation of resources, lower wages and agricultural income, and increase poverty. I investigate the case of Moldova, a very open economy where poverty is widespread, agriculture is a key sector, formal trade barriers are low, and informal export barriers are widespread. I find that improving export practices would benefit the average Moldovan household across the whole income distribution. Poverty would also decline, affecting 100-180 thousand individuals.     

Networks,firms, and trade

Fixed costs associated with learning about demand and setting up distribution networks are expected to be lower when there are more potential contacts in the destination market, suggesting a greater probability of market entry and larger export revenues. We match historically-determined emigration stocks with detailed firm-level data from Portugal to examine the effect of migrant networks on these export outcomes. We find that larger stocks of emigrants in a given destination increase export participation and intensity. In addition, we show that the former of these effects tends to be more pronounced among firms that are more likely to have close ties with the emigrants. These results are consistent with a multiple-destination version of the Melitz (2003) model featuring market-specific entry costs and idiosyncratic firm-destination demand shocks.     

Aggregate supply response in Tanzanian agriculture

Tanzania is among the many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since the mid-1980s. in the hope that reforms that introduce price incentives and efficient marketing will encourage producers to respond. This paper assesses that claim by examining the supply response of agricultural output in Tanzania. Our estimates suggest that aggregate agricultural supply response is quite high so that the potential for agricultural sector response to liberalization of agricultural prices and marketing may be quite significant. The long-run elasticity of aggregate food crop output to relative prices was almost unity. Short-run supply responses were estimated at about 0.35 for aggregate food crops and for all (food and export) crops. Liberalization of agricultural markets, where it increases the effective prices paid to farmers, can be effective in promoting production, although complementary interventions, to improve infrastructure, marketing, access to inputs and credit, improved production technology etc, are probably necessary.     

Establishment heterogeneity,exporter dynamics,and the effects of trade liberalization

We study the effects of tariffs and iceberg trade costs in a two-sector dynamic variation of the Melitz (2003) model extended to include a sunk cost of exporting, establishment-level uncertainty in productivity, capital accumulation, and material usage. We calibrate the model to match both cross-sectional and dynamic aspects of US producers related to export participation and the establishment lifecycle. We find a tariff equivalent of fixed export costs of 30 percentage points. We also find that a sizeable share of export profits is a return to the organizational capital from investing in export capacity rather than creating an establishment. We use the model to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find that eliminating an 8 percent tariff increases the ratio of trade to GDP from 3.9% to 7.4% and raises welfare by 1.02%. Along the transition, consumption overshoots its steady state, even as trade and the capital stock grow gradually, so that the change in steady state consumption understates the welfare gain. Models without a dynamic export decision generate more gradual aggregate transition dynamics and smaller gains from trade. Capital accumulation and material usage are important sources of the welfare gains to trade.     

Establishment heterogeneity,exporter dynamics,and the effects of trade liberalization

We study the effects of tariffs and iceberg trade costs in a two-sector dynamic variation of the Melitz (2003) model extended to include a sunk cost of exporting, establishment-level uncertainty in productivity, capital accumulation, and material usage. We calibrate the model to match both cross-sectional and dynamic aspects of US producers related to export participation and the establishment lifecycle. We find a tariff equivalent of fixed export costs of 30 percentage points. We also find that a sizeable share of export profits is a return to the organizational capital from investing in export capacity rather than creating an establishment. We use the model to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find that eliminating an 8 percent tariff increases the ratio of trade to GDP from 3.9% to 7.4% and raises welfare by 1.02%. Along the transition, consumption overshoots its steady state, even as trade and the capital stock grow gradually, so that the change in steady state consumption understates the welfare gain. Models without a dynamic export decision generate more gradual aggregate transition dynamics and smaller gains from trade. Capital accumulation and material usage are important sources of the welfare gains to trade.     

地理区位、农户特征与贫困分布——基于西海固720个农户的分析

地理区位、农户特征是决定贫困分布的重要因素。本文以宁夏西海固8个国家扶贫工作重点县72个观察村的720个农户资料为样本数据,按照地理区位和农户特征为标志对贫困指标进行分解研究,以观察贫困人口分布状况,分析贫困机理,从微观上制定具体的扶贫措施。研究发现,地理区位和农户特征决定了农户贫困规模和程度的差异性,这种差异性是确定西海固农村扶贫开发对象和重点的参考依据。     

交易费用、农户认知及其契约选择——基于浙赣琼黔的调研

对中国四省份507户农户的农产品流通渠道契约选择意愿的研究发现,农户对合作社和合同销售模式的认知程度低,其契约选择意愿与实际契约选择之间差异显著。传统市场流通模式在现实中仍占主导地位,但农户的契约选择意愿倾向于合同模式和合作社模式。因子分析和多元 Logistic 回归分析的结果显示,农户对市场信息和销售渠道的认知、农户谈判能力以及农户的文化水平和党员身份都显著影响其契约模式选择意愿。政策启示是,要继续加大对现代农产品流通体系的宣传力度,提高农户认知水平; 加强农村信息化服务建设,降低农户信息搜寻成本; 加强政府对超市和农业龙头企业与农户开展合同产销模式的支持和监管,稳定农户和各类农产品流通主体的利益联结机制。     

Financial factors and exporting decisions

Is financial health a determinant of export market participation? Is it an outcome? Using a panel of 9292 UK manufacturing firms over the period 1993-2003, we explore the links between firms' financial health and their export market participation decisions. We find that exporters exhibit better financial health than non-exporters. Yet, when we differentiate between continuous exporters and starters, we see that this result is driven by the former. Starters generally display low liquidity and high leverage, possibly due to the sunk costs which need to be met to enter export markets. Furthermore, we find no evidence that firms enjoying better ex-ante financial health are more likely to start exporting, and strong evidence that participation in export markets improves firms' financial health.     

Financial factors and exporting decisions

Is financial health a determinant of export market participation? Is it an outcome? Using a panel of 9292 UK manufacturing firms over the period 1993–2003, we explore the links between firms' financial health and their export market participation decisions. We find that exporters exhibit better financial health than non-exporters. Yet, when we differentiate between continuous exporters and starters, we see that this result is driven by the former. Starters generally display low liquidity and high leverage, possibly due to the sunk costs which need to be met to enter export markets. Furthermore, we find no evidence that firms enjoying better ex-ante financial health are more likely to start exporting, and strong evidence that participation in export markets improves firms' financial health.     

社会资本视域下的贫困农户减贫分析

对于贫困农户来说,社会资本可以通过为其提供机会、增强能力来减缓贫困。由于贫困农户的社会资本匮乏,维护社会资本能力较弱,且发展社会资本途径较少,通过推进农业产业化经营、提高贫困人口能力、培养农村民间组织、推动参与式扶贫,以及发挥NGO作用,可以有效提高贫困农户的社会资本,进而减轻其贫困。     

Where Do Firms Export,How Much and Why?

The empirical finding that exporting firms are more productive on average than non‐exporters has provoked a large theoretical literature based on models such as Melitz ( 2003 ), where more productive firms are more likely to overcome costs associated with trade. This paper investigates how closely the productivity heterogeneity framework fits the data from a firm‐level survey that includes information on export destinations and firm characteristics such as productivity. We find a high degree of unpredictable idiosyncratic participation in export markets by firms and a relatively weak positive correlation between the extent of a firm's export market participation and its export sales. We find that a small number of standard gravity variables provide a close fit to the country‐level determinants of trade but that greater variation results in more difficulty in explaining firm‐specific factors driving exporting behaviour. We also illustrate some elements of the dynamics over time in firm exporting patterns by destination. We show that lagged exporting activity has a significant effect on a firm's current exporting profile.     

International standards certification,institutional voids and exports from developing country firms

This paper analyses the impact of International Standards Certification (ISC) on the export participation and the scale of exports of firms based in 89 developing or transition countries. We conceptualise ISC as an endogenous institutional advantage, which bridges institutional voids in the country and helps firms to export. The empirical results show that certified firms are more likely to export, and to export on a larger scale. The impact of ISC runs through two channels: productivity and transaction cost economies. We show that certification plays an important role in bringing down transaction costs in international markets, while also maintaining and raising efficiency. This finding is reinforced by additional evidence, suggesting that ISC matters more for the export participation of domestic firms than for foreign firms and is of greater importance for firms based in countries characterised by severe institutional voids.     

中美农产品贸易收益核算及贸易摩擦的影响分析

在全球生产分割的背景下,海关统计数据由于包含大量重复计算的成分,并不能真实反映一国某部门的贸易收益情况。文章通过构建跨国投入产出模型,定义增加值出口为衡量双边贸易收益的指标,从增加值出口变化趋势、行业分布情况及贸易收益的实现方式,分别剖析2000~2014年中美两国农产品各部门的增加值出口情况。发现中美农产品双边贸易的盈余方实为中国,农产品行业的大量增加值隐藏在本国的其他部门中出口。中国市场对美国农业经济的拉动作用在提升,两国农产品行业实现收益的方式不同,中国越来越趋向于附加值含量低的粗加工中间品出口。两国农产品贸易关系紧密,对第三国市场的依赖不断下降,中美贸易摩擦对两国农产品行业的收益都将造成较大的冲击。     

Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification

This paper shows that improved trade facilitation can help promote export diversification in developing countries. We find that 10 per cent reductions in the costs of international transport and domestic exporting costs (documentation, inland transport, port and customs charges) are associated with export diversification gains of 4 and 3 per cent, respectively, in a sample of 118 developing countries. Customs costs play a particularly important role in these results. Lower market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the effect is weaker (1 per cent). We also find evidence that trade facilitation has stronger effects on diversification in poorer countries. Our results are highly robust to estimation using alternative dependent and independent variables, different country samples, and alternative econometric techniques. We link these findings to recent advances in trade theory that emphasise firm heterogeneity, and trade growth at the extensive margin.     

Are Farmers' Market Shoppers Different From Cross-Shoppers? The Case of Hawaiian Avocado Purchasers

Small- and medium-size growers use direct marketing and farmers’ markets to access customers and avoid supply chain intermediaries that increase costs of getting products to consumers. This study examined consumers’ use of agricultural product information sources and their shopping outlet patronage preferences for one type of locally grown produce: avocados.

Two farmers’ market segments were identified: 1) shops only farmers’ markets and 2) cross-shops grocery stores. Product information came from a variety of sources: media, retailers, and organizations. “Buy Local” or “product origin” were considered in produce shopping decisions. One dimension, “Buy Local,” was significant in differentiating farmers’ market segments.     

“三农”问题的制度经济学分析

我国是一个农业大国 ,农业、农村和农民问题在整个国民经济中的地位是显而易见的。在经济体制转轨的过程中 ,“三农”问题更显得突出和紧迫 ,它不仅影响了我国农业的可持续发展 ,而且还影响了农民的收入水平及其在国民经济中的基础地位。本文运用一个动态的投资模型 ,分析了沉淀成本对农业生产进入与退出的影响 ,并探讨了其对农户生产投资行为的影响 ,提出了解决“三农”问题的政策处方 :即在农业生产经营活动中 ,由于普遍存在的沉淀成本严重地影响了农民的投资行为 ,因而完善市场制度和非市场制度 ,提高农业生产要素的流动性 ,降低其沉淀成本 ,是解决“三农”问题的关键。