我国纺织服装出口限制政策选择悖论及经济学解释

本文首先从理论上分析比较了三类纺织品出口限制政策——出口关税、出口配额和出口行业生产税的福利效应。在此基础上,结合我国纺织品出口限制政策的选择,可以发现我国政府放弃的是总体福利损失相对较小的出口关税措施;最终采用的是对社会整体福利损失可能最大的出口配额政策,而仅对生产有扭曲作用、且福利损失最小的出口行业生产税措施并没有出台。本文对我国这一政策选择"悖论"给出了初步的经济学解释。     

Multi Fibre Arrangement and Wage Inequality: Firm and State‐level Evidence from India and a Theoretical Model

The phased elimination of Multi Fibre Arrangements (MFA) for textile and apparel has been one of the most compelling trade policy reforms that removed a system of bilateral quotas. The reform brought in significant changes in the industrial structures for exporters from the south, including India. Has the labour‐intensive high‐employment textile and clothing industry in India benefited from this global move towards freer trade? For India, the industry has witnessed unprecedented market concentration of export‐oriented firms. Firm‐level empirical estimate illustrates that workers in the export‐oriented firms in India are adversely affected due to withdrawal of quota. Accumulation of net fixed assets and growth of sales impart positive impact on firm‐level wages that cannot outweigh negative impact due to fall in exports. We also find negative impact of profit on aggregate wage bill for the industry with firms spread over 11 major states in India. We show that the mean deviation of industry‐level wage is positively and significantly associated with mean deviation of the number of factories at the state level and negatively with profit. Finally, a brief analytical exercise obtains conditions under which joint withdrawal of quota and import tariff could raise the aggregate labour income in developing countries, in general.     

我国出口退税政策的贸易与经济效应研究——基于局部均衡模型的分析

通过将出口退税政策变量纳入局部均衡COMPAS模型,从产业层面上分析出口退税政策如何影响进出口行业的产出、贸易、收益等经济指标,并利用中国纺织服装品对美国出口贸易的有关数据,实证模拟中国出口退税政策变化对中美两国纺织业的生产、贸易和收入的影响。结果表明:平均而言,出口退税率每提高1个百分点,中国纺织品出口美国的价格将大约下降0.93%,而中国纺织品对美国出口量将增加2.86%左右,全行业收入大约增加1.83%;而美国纺织行业的产出减少1.9%,全行业收入减少2.2%。     

国有纺织服装外贸企业应对“后配额时代”的SWOT分析

国有纺织服装外贸企业曾经是中国纺织服装出口的主力军。随着“后配额时代”的到来,国有纺织服装外贸企业的生存、发展环境发生了重大变化。运用SWOT方法,深入分析国有纺织服装外贸企业的内外部环境,得出以下结论：在其企业内部环境中,行业经验、人力资源、管理和资金等方面具有一定优势,但在新产品开发及创新能力、产品科技含量、自主品牌创建等方面存在劣势;而在其外部环境中,存在外部机会的同时也要面临诸多威胁。为此,国有纺织服装外贸企业应通过制定S0战略、WO战略等有效的经营战略来应时“后配额时代”的竞争。     

Bilateral trade wars

The paper constructs a three-country, two-good general equilibrium model to analyze the welfare effects of bilateral trade wars. The presence of a third country (or a number of countries) pursuing free trade policies alters several results based on a two-country framework: Regardless of whether tariffs or quotas are used, bilateral trade wars need not eliminate trade between the two retaliating countries; even a “small” retaliating country can win a bilateral trade war; and quotas can be welfare-superior to tariffs under bilateral retaliation.     

我国纺织服装业出口退税政策实证检验

文章以我国传统劳动密集型产业的代表-纺织服装业为研究对象,采用2004年1月至2010年8月的样本数据,对该产业出口退税率变动和月度贸易顺差增长率进行格兰杰因果检验,发现我国纺织服装业出口退税政策失效。基于实证结果进一步分析原因后提出了政策建议,认为转变出口退税政策的目标为结构调整、提高产业附加值,这不仅是保证今后我国出口退税政策有效实施的关键,而且是推动纺织服装产业升级的必要之举。     

欧盟东扩后的贸易效应对我国纺织品出口的影响和挑战

欧盟是世界上第二大纺织品服装进口市场，每年进口的纺织品占全球总进口量的31％，就进出口贸易总量来说，欧盟是全球纺织品服装的最大贸易方，在世界纺织品服装贸易中扮演着非常重要的角色。中国是对欧盟纺织品和服装出口最多的国家，是欧盟纺织品最大的供应国。欧盟东扩的实现将对我国纺织产品的出口产生重大影响，因此本通过对欧盟东扩后产生的贸易效应的分析来说明东扩后可能对我国纺织业出口产生的一定影响。     

Determinants and Relationships in Sectoral Trade: A Bilateral Model for Knitwear Clothing

The generalized aggregated trade models do not capture the industry or product‐specific competitive situation and overgeneralize the bilateral cases. As a result, product‐specific trade determinants at the sectoral or bilateral level cannot be sufficiently drawn from such generalized models. This holds true for knitwear clothing products, an important component of international textile trade. To remedy this, we propose a sector‐specific bilateral model in the context of knitwear clothing exports from India to the United States. This pair of countries is chosen due to unilateral trade flows as well as to underline the contrasting features of developed north versus developing south. The vector autoregression (VAR) model was found more appropriate than other available modeling choices. We used monthly frequency data from January 2006 to December 2012. The traditional determinants such as exchange rate and price competitiveness remain relevant. Chinese competition emerges as a significant determinant, which underlines the relevance of a sector‐specific bilateral trade model. The 2009 recession showed a clear impact, albeit for only a few months. Our model is parsimonious but has more explanatory power than generalized models. Policy researchers may further explore the model for more fine‐tuned policy on sector‐specific factors. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

European Union Import Quotas on Chinese Textile and Clothing Exports in 2005: A Panic-Driven Commission or Rational Explanations?

Based upon a narrative policy analysis, the aim of this paper is to answer two questions: (1) Why did the EU re-introduce import quotas on Chinese textile and clothing exports in 2005 after promising to lift them? (2) Why did the EU (partly) abolish these quotas a couple of months later? The rational choice inspired model put forward in this paper assumes that the EU’s political system is a partial asymmetrical political equilibrium in which decisions taken by decision makers are a product of a supply and demand. By using this model, it is explained how the lifting of quotas on Chinese textile and clothing exports to WTO members on 1 January, 2005 and the political situation surrounding the French referendum on the Constitutional Treaty on 29 May, 2005, constitute key events in the decision making process.     

贸易差额的衡量:基于所有权还是所在地

本文在借鉴西方主要国家和有关国际机构在为建立基于所有权的国际贸易统计框架所做方法研究和探索实践的基础上,尝试确立完整的基于所有权的双边贸易差额统计框架,并且把这一原则与现行的跨境贸易差额进行了比较。一方面指出现行的跨境贸易差额高估我国贸易利得的主要原因,是外资企业净出口被计为中国的出口,而实际上它是外国资本在国际化生产中获得的贸易利得;另一方面为将来如何调整统计口径、得到反映现实的统计结果,提供可供参考的方向。     

理性看待后配额时代的中国纺织品服装贸易

2005年1月1日开始了全球纺织品服装贸易的后配额时代，这将会极大改变全球纺织品服装生产的国际分工格局和纺织品服装贸易格局。贸易环境的复杂多变，竞争对手的日益强大以及主要进口国非配额贸易限制措施的不断出台等，将使未来中国纺织品服装贸易面临严峻挑战。因此，中国应从政府、产业和企业3个层面采取相应的对策，提高自身竞争力，治理出口秩序，实现向后配额时代的平稳过渡。     

Trade policy under firm-level heterogeneity in a small economy

We explore the effect of trade policy on productivity and welfare in the now standard model of firm-level heterogeneity and product differentiation with monopolistic competition. To obtain sharp results, we restrict attention to an economy that takes as given the price of imports and the demand schedules for its exports (a “small economy”). We first establish that welfare can be decomposed into four terms: productivity, terms of trade, variety and curvature, where the last is a term that captures heterogeneity across varieties. We then show how a consumption subsidy, an export tax, or an import tariff allows our small economy to deal with two distortions that we identify and thereby reach its first-best allocation. We also show that an export subsidy generates an increase in productivity, but given the negative joint effect on the other three terms (terms of trade, variety, and curvature), welfare falls. In contrast, an import tariff improves welfare in spite of the fact that productivity falls.     

Does Trade Liberalisation Trigger Tax Competition? Theory and Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper aims at assessing the empirical relevance of new economic geography models of tax competition. We rely on a simple model to specify tax reactions functions, which we estimate with a panel covering (up to) 26 OECD countries over the period 1982 to 2006. We provide striking support for the two main predictions regarding the slope and the constant of the reaction function: national governments seem to adjust their corporate tax rate towards the level chosen in countries that are more populated, and they tend to set higher corporate tax rates when their country enjoys a high real market potential. Through the latter effect, trade integration exerts a positive influence on the level of corporate taxation. However, using a theoretically grounded index of bilateral trade integration, we also show that trade liberalisation gives rise to significant tax interactions in the setting of effective average tax rates in the case of European countries, thus exerting a downward pressure on corporate tax rates.     

Bilateral trade effects of fiscal devaluation: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper empirically examines the effects of a fiscal devaluation on bilateral trade. To this end, employers’ social contribution (ESC) and value-added tax (VAT), which stand as the factors that represent typical fiscal devaluation, are embodied within the framework of a gravity model. Fixed effects vector decomposition (FEVD) technique is applied to the empirical models specified within this framework, employing panel data from 22 OECD countries over the 1980–2014 periods. The findings show that the effectiveness of the fiscal devaluation policy seems to alter with respect to how ESC and VAT are measured. Considering the fiscal devaluation policy implemented unilaterally, the policy turns out to be effective in nine countries in the sample.     

绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业出口的影响与对策

随着中国加入WTO,传统的非关税壁垒被逐步削减.绿色壁垒以鲜明的时代特征日益成为国际贸易发展的主要关卡.绿色壁垒是以严格的环境标准和其他环境要求为主要内涵的一种贸易壁垒.入世以后,它取代过去的关税壁垒等贸易限制成为我国纺织服装业发展对外贸易的最大障碍.本文在深入分析绿色壁垒的定义及其特点的基础上,探讨其对我国纺织服装业的影响,进而提出相应的对策.     

The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model

This paper analyzes the Turkish export and import flows with regard to regional clusters (RCs) and bilateral trade costs (BTCs) by using a panel data gravity model. We study the role of RCs and BTCs in two complementary parts: in the first part, we use an unbalanced panel data for 180 countries over the period 1960–2012, compiled from the DOTS database. We extend these estimations by running the data at four different time intervals, each representing different economic or political regimes in Turkey. In the second part, we repeat the same exercise at sectoral level for 176 countries over the period 1994–2010, using the BACI database. Aggregate estimates show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the export and import flows of Turkey and that all close-by regions, including EU27, have a significant impact on trade flows of Turkey. We also find that the EU Customs Union has a negative effect on Turkish exports and a positive effect on imports. Estimates at selected time intervals reinforce aggregate estimates and sectoral level analyses indicate that while some regions contribute positively in all or the majority of sectors, others contribute negatively or produce mixed results.     

中国生产性服务贸易与中间产品贸易关系——基于行业面板数据的考察

文章基于Ngo Van Long等(2005)的分析框架,分析了生产性服务贸易影响中间产品贸易的内在机理。然后,运用中国中间产品贸易1998～2009年的分行业面板数据进行回归,结果显示:生产性服务的进口能促进中间产品的出口,对中间产品进口影响不显著;生产性服务进口对中、低技术密集型中间产品出口的影响较为明显;生产性服务贸易自由化程度的提高使低技术密集型中间产品的出口增加,高技术密集型中间产品的出口减少。     

2020年我国纺织品出口困境及对策分析

2020年我国外贸整体表现快速回稳、持续向好,其中纺织品出口行业表现尤为亮眼,但在增长的外贸数据背后却是纺织品出口企业利润微薄甚至负利润的尴尬局面。本文结合相关贸易数据分析了困境产生的原因,并从经营战略和金融策略两方面对我国未来的纺织品出口提出对策建议。     

Politics of free trade areas: tariffs versus quotas

In this paper we compare and contrast the political viability of bilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) Agreements in the presence of tariffs and quotas. Assuming that the government maximizes a weighted sum of welfare and producer profits, we show that the political viability of FTAs varies according to whether trade restrictions take the form of tariffs or quotas. A key result is that whereas an FTA is unambiguously rejected by one of the countries under a tariff, it may be endorsed by both trading partners under a voluntary export quota or import quota that provides equal protection as the tariff.     

取消出口退税对钢铁产品出口贸易的影响——以中韩贸易为例

本文采用HS分类的第72章钢铁产品六分位数据,用"倍差法"分别检验了出口退税政策变动对中国向世界和中国向韩国钢铁出口规模和结构的影响。实证结果表明,2010年7月中国政府取消出口退税政策显著地抑制了相关商品的出口增长:取消出口退税的四大类商品对世界的出口增长率比未取消退税的商品低了54%～98%,对韩国的出口增长率比未取消的其他商品低了30%～69%,为改善钢铁产品出口结构起到了重要的作用。由于一定时期内特定国家的贸易政策、汇率变动等影响需求的因素较为稳定,因此对韩国出口的实证研究结果更能客观地反映政策的实际效果。