The impact of a gasoline crisis on retail sales

The gasoline crises of the 1970s demonstrated the need for including gasoline prices and gasoline shortages in models explaining retail sales. In this article, a model is constructed that incorporates the aforementioned variables, other variables, and a lagged sales figure as independent variable. The results indicate a high degree of explanatory power in predicting retail sales for a specialty store chain with a preponderance of their stores in large regional malls that sell a product which lends itself to unplanned purchase behaviour.     

The impact of introducing a customer loyalty program on category sales and profitability

The authors propose and empirically investigate the effect of category-specific attributes as important factors associated with the change in pre-versus post-loyalty program introduction category sales and profits. Category penetration and frequency are positively correlated with loyalty program success with an increase in sales and profits, whereas impulse buying and ability to stockpile show negative correlations. Furthermore, although introducing a loyalty program generates immediate spikes in sales and profits in most categories; its impact is generally short-lived. It results in an initial redistribution of category expenditures during the program launch, where consumers seemingly shift consumption from lightly purchased categories to heavily purchased categories. But the effect soon erodes. Nevertheless, by modeling the diffusion process of loyalty program performance, this paper finds that penetration rate and private label share are key drivers of a category's sustainable growth. The evolution of consumer price elasticities and promotion sensitivities are tracked pre- and post-loyalty program introduction, and profit-driving categories are identified according to their category characteristics. New insights are offered on category management and long-term program planning.     

The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China

Despite extensive use of weather data to adjust replenishment and inventory strategies in the retail industry, these companies do clearly know the effect of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance. How does weather affect consumers' purchasing behavior and thus retail performance? We study empirically these questions by analyzing more than 6 million transactions made by more than 1.62 million unique consumers at 146 convenience stores in a convenience store chain in China. We choose sun, rain, temperature, and air quality index as the main weather variables. We use the average number of items per order and the average price of each item in each order as indicators of consumer behavior, and use store daily sales as an indicator of retail performance. We found that under rainy weather, people will buy more products with higher item prices in one order. When temperature rises, people will buy fewer products with a lower item price in one order. In addition, sunny weather and rainy weather have a positive impact on daily sales than cloudy weather. Air quality has a negative impact on daily sales, while temperature has a positive impact on sales. Finally, we study the impact of weather on different product categories. We find that the results depend on the product category characteristics.     

Income and time pressure: a person-situation grocery retail typology

A person-situation segmentation framework is proposed. The demographic variable 'income' and the situational variable 'time pressure' were integrated and applied to grocery retail shopping. Using a combination of individual scanning data and a mail survey, we divided a sample of moderate to frequent grocery shoppers in a large Belgian retail organization into four grocery-shopping segments - 'money-poor, time-rich', 'money-poor, time-poor', 'money-rich, time-rich' and 'money-rich, time-poor'. Significant differences existed between these segments in several demographic, behavioural and attitudinal characteristics, including: demographic - age, composition and size of household, number of children at home, marital status, location, education and occupation; behavioural - amount spent in the store, buying pattern for different product categories and different task definitions; attitudinal - overall attitude towards grocery shopping and different grocery-shopping attribute saliences.     

The role of impulsive behaviour and meta-perception in referral reward programs

This study investigates the differences in referral likelihood and referral times of customers with different impulsive purchase propensity in the context of referral reward programs. One field experiment and two lab experiments demonstrated that when consumers have higher impulsive purchase propensity, consumers provided with referrer-benefit (only referrer awarded) rewards will have a higher referral likelihood than those provided with referee-benefit (referee can get the partial or full reward). This effect is mediated by meta-perceptions that people with a higher propensity for impulsive consumption are less likely to form the negative meta-perception. In addition, this study revealed that referral contexts (private and public communication environments) might have a moderating effect on consumers’ subsequent referrals (i.e., referral times). The negative effects of meta-perceptions stemming from the referrer-benefit rewards can be mitigated in private contexts.     

The relative impact of advertising and referral reward programs on the post-consumption evaluations in the context of service failure

This study investigates the differences in the post-consumption evaluations of customers acquired through advertising and RRPs in the context of service failure. The three laboratory experiments demonstrated that when a service failure happens, customers acquired through RRPs will have more positive post-consumption evaluations than those acquired through advertising. This effect is mediated by customers’ attribution the failure as a one-time event. In addition, this study revealed that the buffering effect of RRPs relative to advertising only exists when the tie strength between the referrer and the referred is strong or the failure severity is low. This research not only extends the literature on the service failure and the comparative effects of different marketing methods, but also provides feasible suggestions for the enterprises to design marketing activities and do more effective failure recovery.     

Reward redemption effects in a loyalty program when customers choose how much and when to redeem

The redemption of loyalty program (LP) rewards has an important impact on LP members' behavior, particularly on purchase behavior before and after redeeming a reward. However, little is known about the interplay between members' purchase and redemption behavior when members are not pressured with point expiration and they choose for themselves when and how much to redeem. In this context, the effects of redemption are not straightforward, as little additional effort is required from an LP member to obtain the reward. Analyzing the behavior of 3094 members in such an LP, we find that the mere decision to redeem a reward significantly enhances purchase behavior before and after the redemption event, even when members redeem just a fraction of their accumulated points. Conceptually, we refer to this enhancement as the redemption momentum, which is an alternative and novel explanation of the existence of pre-reward effects that do not depend on points-pressure. In addition to the overall impact of redemption on purchases, prior purchase behavior also enhances redemption decisions. Finally, we find a number of moderating effects on purchase and redemption behavior that derive from the length of LP membership, age, income and direct mailings. Our study's most important managerial implication is that firms should avoid imposing point expiry and/or binding thresholds in order to enhance members' purchase behavior.     

Retail atmospherics: The impact of a brand dictated theme

Although retail atmospherics has been an active area of study, a glance around a typical mall indicates many retailers still do not actively differentiate their retail environment from competitors. This is likely due to retailers considering the atmospheric elements (lighting, music, etc.) individually and making decisions regarding the elements based on what is “standard” for their customers, merchandise, and format. This approach leads to very little differentiation and fails to consider that today’s consumer is often expecting a more multi-sensory, interactive, and holistic shopping experience. This paper considers an alternative approach, where a brand dictated “theme” is used to guide the manipulation of the atmospheric elements. This allows retail brands to break free from standard design to create a more interactive, immersive, and authentic environment. Outcomes include increases in shopping enjoyment, positive brand attitudes, and brand loyalty. T-tests are utilized to compare the two approaches within both the apparel (Study 1) and restaurant (Study 2) industries.     

The impact of shopper mood and retail salesperson credibility on shopper attitudes and behaviour

This paper examines the effect of shopper mood and salesperson credibility in a retailing context. It predicts that shoppers in good moods will respond positively to a high-credibility salesperson but not a low-credibility one. Using a three-way full-factorial experimental design, this notion is supported. Credible salespeople are found to have a positive effect on shoppers in good moods, but not bad moods, with respect to salesperson evaluations, to purchase intentions and to intentions to seek out the salesperson in subsequent shopping.     

When giving money does not work: The differential effects of monetary versus in-kind rewards in referral reward programs

Customer referral reward programs have recently gained popularity as beneficial customer acquisition tools. This research aims to explore the impact of reward type, specifically with regard to the differential effects of monetary versus in-kind rewards, on referral success. We find that although consumers prefer monetary rewards to in-kind rewards because of the greater economic value of monetary rewards, the higher social costs associated with money offset this benefit and even render money an inferior incentive when the recommendation is not well justified. Through four experiments, we demonstrate that monetary rewards (vs. in-kind rewards) lead to less referral generation and acceptance, especially when the recommended brands are weak (Studies 1 and 4), and that perceived social costs mediate the interactive effect of reward type and brand strength (Studies 1 and 3). Moreover, by increasing the economic benefit or decreasing the social costs associated with monetary rewards, we restore the effectiveness of monetary rewards as incentives. Compared with in-kind rewards, monetary rewards perform equally well when the reward is sufficiently large (Study 2), and they perform even better when both the recommender and the receiver are rewarded (Study 3). This research extends the literature on the psychological consequences of money and provides novel insights into the customer referral process.     

Evolution of retail formats: Past,present, and future

In this paper, the authors review current literature on retail formats and propose a new customer-centric framework for retailers to focus on as they continue to innovate and evolve. Specifically, they review the literature on how formats compare in their attributes and compete with each other; the role of customer behavior in format choice; and developments in multichannel and omnichannel retailing. They propose a framework for retail formats suggesting two paths – either reduce friction in the customer journey or enhance customer experience. They discuss the challenges faced by offline (physical store-first) and online (digital-first) retailers and elaborate on strategies each type of retailer is pursuing to address these challenges. Finally, they offer directions for future research in this domain. They conclude by calling for newer digital-first and physical-first players to continue coming up with different customer-centric formats, which they predict will slowly morph into integrated retailers, leaving space for newer players to enter the market and hence keep the wheel of retailing spinning.     

The provenance of loyalty card data for urban and retail analytics

The deployment of loyalty card and other consumer data in geographic research brings opportunities to explore and understand patterns of purchasing behaviour in unprecedented detail. However, valid generalisation requires thorough evaluation of their potential bias. We argue that, in competitive markets where consumers can choose to shop across competing retailers, loyalty card data from just one of these may not represent a ‘complete’ view of all purchases, and that this ‘completeness’ must be controlled for when assessing bias. To this end, we undertake a UK wide analysis of loyalty card data assembled by a major UK grocery retailer and provide guidelines for their effective deployment in the domains of urban and retail analysis. We assess, for the first time, the ‘completeness’ of circa 500 million customer transactions recorded by a major customer loyalty programme in representing the overall purchasing patterns of circa 16 million consumers across the entire UK, and develop a method by which to do this. Moreover, no operator has complete national store coverage, and so we suggest ways of accommodating this when conducting analysis using loyalty card data. We illustrate the importance of these issues before providing recommendations for the wider use of consumer loyalty card data.     

Spatial diffusion of a new loyalty program through a retail market

Retailers who wish to launch new innovations into their markets can be much more effective if they understand the geographic forces which affect consumer adoption of those innovations. A research field which studies this process is spatial diffusion. This paper explores and models the processes and driving forces of spatial diffusion across a market area following the launch of a new loyalty card program by a national retailer. Event history modeling is used to estimate the effects of distance, the impact of the firm’s marketing efforts, and the role of previous adopters in influencing the speed and spatial pattern of the adoption process. The results, in addition to yielding new insights into the processes involved in spatial diffusion, support previous findings on the importance of targeting the Innovator adopter group in a new product launch.     

Challenges and opportunities of new retail horizons in emerging markets: The case of a rising coffee culture in China

Economic growth and a rising middle class consumer base make emerging markets an attractive prospect for many international businesses. Changing patterns of retail in these countries present opportunities for business expansion that many are keen to capitalize on, but also present challenges for reaching their ambitions. This article examines the growth of the coffee shop industry in China—considering its key dynamics and drivers—in order to address questions about successful retail expansion in emerging markets. We aim to explore how changing consumer cultures have contributed to a rapidly growing industry and what strategies businesses have used to enter the market and maintain growth, as well as considerations for potential retail success in the future.     

Cross-reward effects in a coalition loyalty program: The impact of a point currency devaluation

While single-brand reward programs encourage customers to remain loyal to that one brand, coalition programs encourage customers to be “promiscuous” by offering points redeemable across partner stores. Despite the benefits of this “open relationship” with customers, store managers face uncertainty as to how rewards offered by partners influence transactions at their own stores. We use a model of multi-store purchase incidence and spend to show how the value of points shared among partner stores can explain patterns in customer-level purchases across them. We also allow reward spillovers to be moderated by three measures of store affinity that characterize a coalition’s portfolio: the relative popularity, geographic distance, and overlap in product categories between each pair of stores.For the coalition studied, popularity affinity was the main determinant of the valence of cross-reward effects, both before and after the devaluation. In contrast, category and geographic affinity had a smaller and more heterogenous impact. Through the use of an event where the loyalty program uniformly devalued the entire coalition’s value of reward points, we show that cross-reward effects changed (lessened), leading to larger financial losses for the most popular stores. While we do not observe changes to the composition of the coalition’s portfolio, our results also suggest that the value of a shared reward currency may be driven by the inclusion of smaller partners.     

The competitive impact of service process improvement: Examining customers’ waiting experiences in retail markets

In this paper, we investigate the impact of a service process improvement in front-end retail operations on the waiting experiences of shared customers, that is, those customers who patronize a retailer as well as its competitors. Our findings from two studies—a field study and a controlled laboratory experiment—suggest that while customers’ waiting time perceptions are independent across competing firms, their waiting time satisfaction is interdependent. As a result, the impact of a retailer's service improvement initiative that reduces waiting times is not merely local to the retailer but propagates to its competitors through its shared customers. Specifically, such an improvement not only raises shared customers’ satisfaction with the focal retailer, it also concurrently lowers their satisfaction with the retailer's competitors. By implication, current approaches that assess the impact of a service process improvement by just measuring the difference in customer satisfaction before and after the improvement may be underestimating the true impact of such improvements.     

Comfort in brick and mortar shopping experiences: Examining antecedents and consequences of comfortable retail experiences

This paper explores the comfort construct in brick and mortar retail settings. As a psychological construct, consumer comfort reflects a sense of ease and peace of mind during a shopping experience. Previous research suggests comfort carries a number of positive consequences for managers, such as strengthening customer relationships and increasing customer satisfaction (Gaur and Xu, 2009). However, these studies take a more interpersonal relationship theory approach and have not considered the impact of non-social aspects of retail environments on consumers' comfort. Moreover, these extant studies have not considered how comfortable environments create value for consumers. Consequently, this study examines how atmospheric elements contribute to creating consumer comfort, and how comfort impacts consumers' perceptions of shopping value. Findings from survey data demonstrate that not all atmospheric elements influence consumers' comfort levels. Moreover, comfortable environments were found to increase both utilitarian value and hedonic value. The implications of the findings for academics and managers are discussed.     

The importance of importance: Its impact on decision-making in mall retail categories during an economic downturn

The study examines how, during an economic downturn, the perceived importance of the value offering of retail store categories, as identified by a major international mall operator based in Australia, influences the relationship between consumers’ shopping attitudes and likelihood of purchasing in those categories. The findings show variance in the importance pertaining to retail store categories between those that have and those that have not altered their shopping behaviour. Different mediating effects were found in the major, mini-major, leisure, apparel, and mobile phone categories, suggestive of each group having differing levels of self-interest in the value offerings of each category, thus, symptomatic of dissimilar decision-making strategies for each group. Contributions to theory and practice are discussed.     

The impact of daily weather on retail sales: An empirical study in brick-and-mortar stores

In this study, we examine the influence of weather on daily sales in brick-and-mortar retailing using empirical data for 673 stores. We develop a random coefficient model that considers non-linear effects and seasonal differences using different weather parameters. In the ex-post analysis using historic weather data, we quantify the explanatory power of weather information on daily sales, identify store-specific effects and analyze the influence of specific sales themes. We find that the weather has generally a complex effect on daily sales while the magnitude and the direction of the weather effect depend on the store location and the sales theme. The effect on daily sales can be as high as 23.1% based on the store location and as high as 40.7% based on the sales theme. We also find that the impact of extreme bad and good weather occurrences can be misestimated by traditional models that do not consider non-linear effects. In the ex-ante analysis, we analyze if weather forecasts can be used to improve the daily sales forecast. We show that including weather forecast information improves sales forecast accuracy up to seven days ahead. However, the improvement of the forecast accuracy diminishes with a higher forecast horizon.     

The impact of store hours and redistributive income effects on the retail industry: some projections for Germany

In this paper, the impact of the relaxation of Blue Laws on the retailing industry structure will be examined with regard to the 1996 store-hour expansion in the Federal Republic of Germany.The first part will deal with the historical development of Blue Laws in the US, Canada and the UK. The assessment of Germany's trading time situation and proponents' and opponents' previous arguments about whether or not to implement the proposed legislation will lead to an analysis of relevant conceptual and empirical research to evaluate expected restructuring effects on the German retailing industry.The impact of redistributive effects is determined, predictions with regard to the projected development are established, and directions for future research are generated.