Modelling inbound international tourism demand to Portugal

In this paper the Johansen cointegration analysis of time series is used to model the Portuguese inbound international tourism demand from five countries of origin—France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and UK. This approach examines the long‐run relationships between the demand for holiday visits and the variables that affect holiday travel such as income, destination prices and travel costs (airfares and road costs). Demand functions, for each country of origin, are estimated using annual data on tourism flows from 1975 to 1997. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test

One of the major objectives of macroeconomic policies in many developing countries is sustained economic growth, and South Africa has been striving to achieve and maintain this in various ways. One of these is through international tourism. Although international tourism contributes to the growth of many economies, it is in turn, impacted by growth in many developed countries. Real gross domestic product (GDP), international tourism earnings, real effective exchange rate and exports were analysed within a multivariate vector auto regressive model using annual data covering 1980–2005. The main focus of this study therefore was to demonstrate the direction of causality between international tourism earnings and long‐run economic growth of South Africa, among other variables, using Granger causality analysis. The result obtained showed a unidirectional causality running from international tourism earnings to real GDP, both in the short run and in the long run. The error correction mechanism carried out also supported this causality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism demand: a panel data approach

This paper estimates the coefficients of the determinants of international tourism demand for the period 1995–2014 in the USA using the gravity framework. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of tourist arrivals among 14 countries using autoregressive distributed lag methods. The results show real gross domestic product, consumer price index, real exchange rate and certain specific events have a significant impact on international tourism demand. The income elasticity suggests that tourism is non-luxury goods, and prices and real exchange rate have negative relation to tourist arrivals. We also find that tourism transport infrastructure is a significant determinant of tourist arrivals into USA. This implies that infrastructure to reinforce taste formation is important to attract more international tourists to USA. In addition, results also suggest implications for public and private tourism authorities.     

Temporal Granger Causality and the Dynamics Relationship Between Real Tourism Receipts,Real Income and Real Exchange Rates in Malaysia

This study applies the bounds testing approach, error‐correction modelling and persistence profile to analyse the dynamic relationship between real tourism receipts, real income and real exchange rates in Malaysia. The present study covers the annual sample period from 1974 to 2009. The results reveal that a long‐run relationship exists between the variables. In the short run, this study finds no Granger causality between real tourism receipts and real income, whereas there is bidirectional causality in the long‐run. Moreover, we also find unidirectional causality running from real exchange rates to real tourism receipts and real income in both short‐ and long‐run. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International tourism specialisation of small countries

International tourism has expanded enormously over recent decades, fuelled by changing consumer tastes, advances in transport and new holiday destinations. The present study aims at analysing the linkages between economic growth and tourism‐based economies. An econometric model for a selected number of small countries has been implemented to investigate the nature, magnitude and overall significance of the demand for tourism. Countries were selected to capture regional diversity, differences in market orientation and a range of experiences, from emerging to long‐standing industries. The results show that tourism can be a significant engine of economic growth, when the elasticity of substitution between manufacturing goods and tourism services is < 1. Finally two stylised facts emerged, namely: (i) countries specialised in tourism register good economic performances; (ii) these same countries have small dimensions as defined by international trade theory. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating Tourist Demand through Cointegration Analysis: Swedish Data

The purpose of this paper is to use co-integration analysis to estimate the long-run relationship between monthly tourist flows to Sweden from American, European and Scandinavian countries. Also, the factors that influence arrivals, such as income, price, exchange rate, the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the 1991 Gulf War are estimated. An econometric model approach of cointegration analysis is adopted to estimate the effect of the above factors on the number of visitors to Sweden and the area No.6 in Sweden (SW:6). Monthly time-series data for the period 1980-1998 were used. The estimated model does not indicate any statistically significant effect of the Chernobyl nuclear accident, or the 1991 Gulf War on international tourism demand. On the other hand, the estimated model does indicate statistically significant effect of income, exchange rate and the consumer price index (CPI) on international tourism demand. The estimation and diagnostic testing strategy supports the specification of the model.     

Varying Elasticities and Forecasting Performance

This study assumes that tourists' demand reactions to income and price changes are asymmetric at different phases of the business cycle. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed the demand for international tourism in five source markets using a modified growth rate (MGR) model. The empirical evidence demonstrates that income elasticity is indeed asymmetric across the business cycle in four source markets. In addition, asymmetric price effects were found for one source market. To compare forecasting performance, we also estimated a time‐varying parameter (TVP) model. The results show that the MGR model generally outperforms the TVP model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dynamic panel analysis of urban metro demand

A dynamic panel model is used to estimate the effect that fares, income and quality of service have on demand for a sample of 22 urban metros. The estimated price elasticity is −0.05 in the short run and −0.33 in the long run. The estimated long run income elasticity is small but positive (0.18), indicating that metros are perceived as normal goods. The quality of service elasticities are positive and substantially higher than the absolute value of fare elasticities. The implication is that quality of service improvements, rather than fare reductions, may be more effective in increasing metro patronage.     

Modelling tourism flows through gravity models: a quantile regression approach

Gravity models are widely used to study tourism flows. The peculiarities of the segmented international demand for agritourism in Italy are examined by means of a novel approach: a panel data quantile regression. We characterize the international demand for Italian agritourism with a large data set, by considering data of 33 countries of origin, from 1998 to 2010. Distance and income are the major determinants, but we also found that mutual agreements and high urbanization rates in countries of origin are associated with larger flows of incoming tourists.     

A nonlinear approach to the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of the MERCOSUR

This paper analyses the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the four countries of the MERCOSUR regional trade block. By applying nonlinear techniques, we explore whether tourism activity leads – in the long run – to economic growth, or, alternatively, economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bidirectional relationship exists between the two variables. To this end, non-parametric cointegration and causality tests are applied to quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We show the existence of a cointegrated relationship between real per capita gross domestic product and tourism expenditure for all countries. Moreover, the linearity of this relation is rejected for both Argentina and Brazil (economies with a relatively diversified structure). The non-parametric causality tests confirm in all cases the causality from tourism to growth. Meanwhile, only for Uruguay and Argentina causality also goes in the inverse direction (from growth to tourism). Finally, the paper compares the results of the nonlinear approach with those obtained by using the traditional linear methodology.     

Dynamic linkages between tourism transportation expenditures,carbon dioxide emission,energy consumption and growth factors: evidence from the transition economies

Tourism transport profoundly affects economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This study is an attempt to examine the impact of international tourism transportation expenditures, energy demand, foreign direct investment inflows, trade openness and urban population on carbon dioxide emission and per capita income for the panel of 11 transition Economies, over the period of 1995–2013. The results show that per capita income escalates the carbon dioxide emission (CO₂), which deteriorates the natural environment. International tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures for travel items are associated with the intensifying CO₂ emission and per capita income in the region. The study confirmed the energy-led emissions, FDI-led emissions, FDI-led growth, income-led emissions, income-led energy demand, trade-led growth and trade-led energy demand. The causality results further substantiate the the tourism-led growth and FDI hypothesis in the region. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis confirmed the following results, that is, (i) per capita income is the contributor that least influences CO₂ emissions, (ii) urban population influences per capita income and (iii) international tourism transportation expenditures will influence CO₂ emissions and per capita income for the next 10-year period.     

Tourism,health and income in Singapore

This paper employs Granger causality test to investigate the long‐run and the short‐run dynamic interactions among tourism, economic development and health care development in Singapore. The test reveals that there is long‐run unidirectional Granger causality from health care development to economic development and from tourism to economic development. Both health care and tourism have positive effects on economic development in the long run. In the short run, there is a unidirectional Granger causality from economic development to health care development and a bidirectional causality between health care development and tourism. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: a panel data analysis

Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.     

A study of the non‐economic determinants in tourism demand

Traditionally, many studies have attempted to use economic demand models. This paper stresses on the influence of non‐economic factors on tourism demand. Some researchers have suggested that tourists from different origins have various cultural and nationalistic backgrounds, and they may interpret visual imagery and experiences differently. Aligning with this suggestion, we have investigated different underlying factors of tourism demand from four continents (Asia, the Americas, Europe and Oceania). Statistical data are collected from international organisations and 135 countries were covered. Our results showed that there are differences and similarities among the factors in determining the tourism demand. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does Tourism Really Lead to Peace? A Global View

There has been much rhetoric about tourism's role in promoting world peace. This research takes a global perspective examining the relationship between peace and tourism across 111 different countries using a panel data model using two indicators, international tourist arrivals and the Institute for Economics and Peace's Global Peace Index. The results indicate that tourism is the beneficiary of peace rather than grounds for peace. Peace is most important to tourism in medium income destinations but still important for high income nations. No relationship exists between peace and tourism arrivals for low income nations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is tourism just another staple? A new perspective on tourism in remote regions

According to recent research, countries may have a positive image from a tourism perspective, but they may be seen as lacking from an economic or political viewpoint. As governments and destination management organisations spend large sums of money in promoting tourist attractions, the question of whether these activities also influence other aspects of a country's image becomes relevant. The objective of the research is to determine the effect of tourism promotions on the image of the country and that of the destination as two separate concepts, in the case of Israel, a country subject to continuous conflicts. A 2?×?2 quasi-experimental design is utilised to investigate the influence of tourism promotional brochures. Additionally, a comparative perspective is used to determine whether people from diverse countries and backgrounds may be affected differently by the same information. The findings confirm that tourism brochures influence not only the image of the destination, but also that of the country. These effects are found to be different for respondents from the two different countries compared. The article focuses on understanding how tourism communication strategies may also be used to improve the image of a country, with potential benefits for international marketing and international relations.     

Taiwan's international tourism: a time series analysis with calendar effects and joint outlier adjustments

In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the USA between January 1971 and December 2008. Our purpose is to find events or variables that affect Taiwan's international tourism. We find that the Chinese New Year has a positive effect on tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, but negative effects for other countries. Through outlier detection, we obtain a better understanding of the effects of non‐recurring events that have impacted Taiwan's international tourism. Using transfer function model with automatic outlier detection and adjustment, we find that the exchange rate influences tourist arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is blockchain technology a watershed for tourism development?

ABSTRACT

The rise of blockchain technology could radically disrupt the global economy. As an emergent technology, blockchain is of broad and current interest in the tourism industry. Small island economies are at the forefront of adopting this digital asset and technology. For instance, the Caribbean economies are launching their first digital legal tender, and Aruba is developing a blockchain platform to boost tourism revenue. Given the velocity of adoption, blockchain technology holds significant implications for tourism development. This research letter provides a discourse on the adoption of blockchain technology among small island economies concerning the opportunities and potential challenges faced and offers practical implications for tourism stakeholders.     

Multinational hotel development in developing countries: an exploratory analysis of critical policy issues

Multinational hotel companies, often integrated with tour operators, travel agencies and other businesses in tourist‐generating or tourist‐receiving countries, play a key role in the development and continuity of an international tourism industry in developing countries. In order to take advantage of benefits and minimise the unwanted adverse effects from multinational hotel involvement, developing countries need the planning, implementation and evaluation of carefully designed policies linked to their particular objectives. This paper reviews the potential benefits and costs of multinational hotel companies and brings together previously scattered critical policy issues in relation to them, while suggesting possible options for developing countries to follow. Seven critical policy areas are identified: establishment of the need for foreign investment; deciding on forms of involvement; deciding on the scale of hotel development; supporting sectoral linkages; supporting indigenous employment/training; monitoring business practices; and determining foreign investment incentives and regulations. It is argued that policies should be worked out in these areas and co‐ordinated in order to achieve a balance between the benefits and costs of multinational hotel involvement in developing countries. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.