新技术进步会阻碍传统技术创新吗——来自汽车产业的实证检验

在新旧技术竞争过程中,传统企业会适时调整研发策略,以应对新技术进步对传统技术造成的冲击。然而,新技术对传统技术的影响究竟表现为创新替代效应还是创新互补效应,至今依然没有得到确切结论。以汽车产业为研究对象,比较传统燃油汽车和电动汽车两种新旧技术的发展路径,并结合产业生命周期理论提出汽车产业的三阶段演化模型。进一步基于1995—2021年省级专利数据和面板向量自回归模型,从产品创新和工艺创新两个维度实证检验各阶段电动汽车技术进步对传统汽车企业创新的影响。结果表明,在电动汽车产业的范式导入期(1995—2008年),新技术通过产品创新和工艺创新两方面促进传统技术发展;在电动汽车产业的范式构建期(2009—2021年),新技术依然对传统技术有显著推动作用,但仅通过工艺创新促进传统技术发展。     

AUTOMOBILE FUEL ECONOMY: WHAT IS IT WORTH?

The marginal value of increased automobile fuel economy is estimated using a hedonic model of 2001 model year automobiles sold in the United States. This value is then compared to the average expected lifetime fuel savings attributable to increased fuel economy. Results indicate that automobile buyers fully internalize fuel cost savings attributable to improved fuel economy at low discount rates, and may partially internalize other perceived benefits of improved fuel economy such as reduction in global warming or fossil fuel dependence.     

Swedish CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions 1993–2006: An Application of Decomposition Analysis and Some Methodological Insights

This study undertakes a decomposition analysis to identify the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions change in the Swedish business and industry sectors 1993–2006. On aggregate, energy intensity decreased, but this does not seem to have been very important for reducing emissions. Rather, fuel substitution seems to have been more important, which is in line with findings from the decomposition literature on Sweden. However, at the sectoral level, we find no clear pattern of the effect of fuel substitution and energy intensity on emissions. We also draw some methodological conclusions: decomposition analysis should be undertaken at the most disaggregate level possible; assessing decomposition results by summing results over several time periods leads to biased results; and decomposition analysis should not be based only on some initial and final years of a long time period. Furthermore, we address the problem of double counting energy flows in decomposition analysis of aggregate effects when the energy sector is included, and point out potential problems related to output measured in monetary terms.     

Russian exports of emission permits under the Kyoto Protocol: The interplay with non-competitive fuel markets

The paper analyses optimal strategies for a country that has market power in an international market for emission permits at the same time as a domestic fuel producer participates in a non-competitive fuel export market. In particular, the effects of coordinating fuel and permit exports are explored. We show that such coordination may either increase or reduce the optimal mark-up on permits, depending on the degree of substitution between alternative fuels.When the fuel market is oligopolistic, coordination of permit and fuel exports may lead to a strategic disadvantage in the fuel market, which makes such coordination unprofitable. However, illustrative numerical simulations suggest that Russia will benefit from coordinating its permit exports with its oil and gas exports during the Kyoto commitment period.     

广西特色经济分析与确认研究

应用比较优势理论,通过对各产业、各行业区位商的计算与分析,得出广西的现代农业、旅游、有色金属、非金属及建材、食品加工、医药制造、林浆纸、电力、汽车及工程机械等行业具有一定的优势,因此,广西要大力发展这些具有地方特色的产业经济,使之成为广西的五大特色经济,即特色农业经济、水能矿产资源经济、汽车与机械制造业经济、旅游经济和海洋经济。     

Elasticity of substitution and technical efficiency: evidence from the US electricity generation

ABSTRACT

The implications of national or regional energy policies for technical efficiency and environmental outcomes in electricity generation depend on fossil fuel input substitution. This study uses state level data to examine fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) substitution in electricity generation under increased availability of natural gas in the United States. We observe that changes in elasticities of substitution from pre-2009 to post-2009 differ across states suggesting that the effects of increased availability of inexpensive natural gas on electricity generation have been spatially heterogeneous. We rely on the observed heterogeneity to assess the effects of fossil fuel input substitution on technical efficiency and CO₂ emissions. The results reveal that state level elasticity of substitution between natural gas and coal has a positive effect on technical efficiency and a negative effect on CO₂ emissions. Therefore, future policy design and analyses should reflect the implications for regional elasticities of fossil fuel substitution and associated environmental outcomes.     

新能源二甲醚的应用前景展望

文章指出二甲醚作为替代燃料对保护环境和解决能源缺乏具有重要意义,介绍了二甲醚的主要生产方法和国内外生产消费情况,对二甲醚的市场前景进行了预测,重点分析了二甲醚在清洁能源领域的应用前景,到2010年,我国用于替代液化石油气和城市煤气的二甲醚需求量将达约700万t,用于替代柴油的二甲醚需求量约1000万t。最后指出我国二甲醚在替代液化石油气和城市煤气技术上和经济上已经可行,二甲醚作为汽车燃料替代柴油是二甲醚最主要的消费领域,有广阔的发展前景。     

Money Illusion and the Double Dividend in the Short Run

Abstract. In their seminal paper, Bovenberg and de Mooij (1994) elucidate why an ecological tax reform will not yield a double dividend, i.e. fails to increase the efficiency of the tax system. The present paper slightly modifies the Bovenberg and de Mooij model by introducing money illusion. With this modification, an environmental tax reform that raises the price level may generate a double dividend, since the additional tax on the dirty good does not reduce labor supply. A prerequisite for the double dividend to occur is a sufficiently small elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty consumption. Moreover, accounting for money illusion always reduces the intertemporal gross cost of the tax reform.     

Fuel Economy Standards, New Vehicle Sales, and Average Fuel Efficiency

The average fuel efficiency of new automobiles sold in the United States increased substantially from 1975 to 1981. This trend stagnated in 1981, however, and average fuel efficiency has actually fallen since 1987. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards—the major policy tool in the United States directed at improving fuel efficiency—may have contributed to the stagnation and decline of average fuel efficiency by shifting automobile sales toward lower mileage vehicles. This paper illustrates how changes in vehicle sales act to dilute the intended effects of CAFE standards, and can actually lead to a decrease in average fuel efficiency.     

Carbon Taxation, Fuel Substitution and Welfare in Australia

This paper examines the potential role for fuel substitution in electricity production in reducing carbon dioxide emissions over a ten-year time horizon. This is achieved by adding fuel substitution to output changes resulting from demand responses arising from a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. A time profile of adjustments is developed. The tax required for Australia to meet a 20 per cent reduction in emissions from 1993 levels is calculated and effects on inequality and social welfare are examined. The paper also examines the potential effect of a subsidy towards the use of low-emission fuels, financed from the carbon tax. A subsidy produces an improvement in emissions abatement and a lower tax required to reach the emissions target.     

消费税和燃油税的有效性比较分析

本文以消费税和燃油税为主要研究对象,运用BLP模型分析汽车需求和供给,然后利用估计出的参数对消费税调整和燃油税征收进行情景模拟,得到了这两种税收对汽车消费、社会福利和能源消耗的影响。结果表明消费税确实能够使汽车消费向小排量车倾斜,新车的燃料利用率提高。而燃油税对汽车消费起到了抑制作用,大大减少了燃油消耗。两种税收都会造成社会福利损失,而消费税造成的损失较小。     

我国汽车财务公司与汽车金融公司的比较

汽车金融服务不仅可以促进汽车制造集团销售,还能成为汽车制造集团的重要利润来源。在我国,汽车制造集团主导的汽车金融服务专业机构有两种形式：一是汽车金融公司;二是汽车财务公司。本文通过对两者的比较,详细阐述了对汽车财务公司现阶段在法律规定的业务范围内存在的优势,并指出汽车金融公司与汽车财务公司的业务在汽车产业价值链上分布的不同。汽车财务公司有很大一部分金融业务集中在汽车生产制造环节,这将阻碍汽车财务公司在汽车金融服务领域的长远发展。我国自主品牌汽车制造集团应当充分重视汽车金融服务在汽车产业中的重要地位,充分认识汽车财务公司模式的优点与不足,正确把握汽车金融服务发展的方向,制定汽车金融服务的发展战略。     

企业与机关事业单位离退休人员养老待遇差异研究

企业与机关事业单位离退休人员的养老金存在差距已是不争的事实。研究发现,1999—2009年它们之间的差距呈不断扩大趋势,但差异扩张的速度在下降。造成企业与机关事业单位养老金差异的原因主要是二者之间养老金的计发基础不同,替代率差异较大,养老金调节机制不同。如果不及时解决二者的差异,将产生不可估量的社会风险。建议构建全民统一的基本险加强制性补充险构成的双层次养老保险制度,调整现有的养老金替代率政策,优化企业退休人员基本养老金补助政策。     

A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles

Alternative vehicles powered by electricity or hydrogen hold the potential to solve a number of challenges that relate to automobile use, such as climate change, deterioration of local air quality, security of energy supply, and high fuel prices. This article addresses the question as to how a transition to vehicles powered by hydrogen or electricity could take place. Recognizing that transitions result from joint development of technology and society, a co-evolutionary, multi-level perspective is adopted. The perspective is used to analyze the dynamics of the relationship between car manufacturers and consumers and developments that put pressure on this relationship. Building on the analysis, two sets of scenarios for a transition to battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles are identified. In one set of scenarios, tightening emissions regulation stimulates carmakers to scale up experiments with alternative vehicles, moving them into the commercialization phase. In the other set, rising fuel prices prompt carmakers to first extend their current product line-up with plug-in versions, and later with battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. The two scenarios have different implications for the actors involved and for the requisite supporting infrastructure.     

The Spanish automotive industry: scale economies and input relationships

This paper investigates the existence of economies of scale in the Spanish automobile industry as well as the substitution possibilities between input pairs and the direct and cross price elasticities of demand for the various inputs by estimating a translog cost function for both a three input model involving capital, labour, and intermediate goods as well as a four input model where energy is separated from other intermediate goods. The results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis of economies of scale in the Spanish automobile industry, particularly at the low and mean levels of output. These results also are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for the other inputs, but that labour and intermediate goods are complements. Labour and energy also appear to have a complementary relationship over most of the data points in this study. The significance of a complementary relationship between labour and intermediate goods is that any attempt by the Spanish government to restrict imports of these inputs, resulting in higher domestic prices for them, may aggravate an already serious domestic unemployment problem.     

The effect of annual changes in automobile fuel economy standards

Since 1978 the Federal government has regulated the fuel economy of new cars sold in the United States. The purpose of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards is to lessen the national dependence on foreign oil. Through the use of theoretical and empirical models this paper examines the impact of CAFE standards on the automobile industry and on energy consumption. It is shown that CAFE standards may or may not save energy. If CAFE does save energy, it does so at a prohibitive cost to the economy. CAFE standards are also shown to have a number of perverse impacts on the automobile industry as well as consumers.     

Market Power with Interdependent Demand: Sale of Emission Permits and Natural Gas from Russia

With implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, Russia will most likely be able to exert market power in the emission permit market. But, as Russia is also a big exporter of fossil fuels, the incentives to boost the permit price may be weak. However, a significant share of Russia’s fossil fuel exports is natural gas. If a high permit price boosts the demand for natural gas through substitution from more polluting fuels and thus increase gas profits, this may increase the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, a large fossil fuel exporter may use its market position to influence the effective demand for permits. Hence, the relationship between permit income and fossil fuels exports runs in both directions. In this article, we explore the interdependence between the revenues from permit and fossil fuel exports both theoretically and numerically. A computable general equilibrium model suggests the fact that Russia as a big gas exporter has small effect on the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, Russia’s monopoly power in the permit market has a small, but non-negligible impact on the optimal level of Russian gas exports.     

Innovation Process 'Fuel Cell Vehicle': What Strategy Promises to be Most Successful?

Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers' strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure.     

Foresight in innovation policy: Shared visions for a science park and business–university links in a city region

Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers’ strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure.     

汽车产业模块化进程及制造模式的战略选择

模块化技术在汽车生产过程中的应用,将会引起产业分工、制造模式发生深刻的变革,对产品的研究开发、生产制造、供应链结构,直至企业发展战略产生较大的影响。从模块化技术在信息产业成功的应用,以及对汽车产业发展的实践分析认为,模块化生产是必然的趋势,这对于后发展的我国汽车制造企业来说,是一个有利的战略机遇。