Abraham Lincoln and the global economy

Abraham Lincoln would have well understood the challenges facing many modern emerging nations. In Lincoln's America, as in many developing nations today, sweeping economic change threatened older industries, traditional ways of living, and social and national cohesion by exposing economies and societies to new and powerful competitive forces. Yet even in the midst of the brutal and expensive American Civil war--and in part because of it--Lincoln and the Republican Congress enacted bold legislation that helped create a huge national market, a strong and unified economy governed by national institutions, and a rising middle class of businessmen and property owners. Figuring out how to maximize the benefits of globalization while minimizing its disruptions is a formidable challenge for policy makers. How do you expand opportunities for the talented and the lucky while making sure the rest of society doesn't fall behind? It may be helpful to look at the principles that informed the policies that Lincoln and the Republican Congress instituted after they came to power in 1861: Facilitate the upward mobility of low- and middle-income groups to give them a significant stake in the country. Emphasize the good of the national economy over regional interests. Affirm the need for sound government institutions to temper the dynamics of the free enterprise system. Tailor policies to the national situation. Realize that a period of turmoil may present a unique opportunity for reform. These principles drove the reforms that helped Americans cope with and benefit from rapid technological advances and the fast integration of the American economy in the nineteenth century. They may be instructive to today's policy makers who are struggling to help their own citizens integrate into the fast-changing global economy of the twenty-first century.     

Strategies for regulating the global economy

Recent work in the science of cybernetics has identified four separate strategies for regulating complex systems composed of thinking participants. Using these strategies as a foundation, this article reviews the history of global development, summarizes current concerns, and then identifies several possible courses of action for regulating a global economy.     

Regional motors of the global economy

The thesis of this article is that world capitalism is moving into a phase of development marked by an intensified regionalization of production overlaid by—and rooted in—a global division of labour. In this process, a significant reallocation of economic coordination and steering functions is occurring, away from the sovereign state, up to the international and down to the regional levels. The historical development of the global capitalist system over the post-World-War-II years is reviewed. The mechanism underlying the growth and spread of large agglomerations of productive activity throughout the world are then elucidated. The combined processes of global integration and regional concentration of economic activity raise important questions about appropriate forms of regulation in the new world order, and some evolving tendencies are described. The article ends on a speculative note in which the possible emergence of something like a worldwide system of city-states at the dawn of the 21st century is contemplated.     

China''s economic reforms and the global economy

This article, written prior to the imposition of martial law in China in June 1989, considers major trends in the globalization process, describes the nature of China's decade-long economic reform, and concludes by identifying three main characteristics of the future Chinese economy and its role in the global system.     

全球经济进入新转折时代

欧洲央行行长特里谢表示：“虽然有初步迹象表明经济下滑速度正在减缓，但我们仍需保持警惕。”     

Resources, innovation and growth in the global economy

The relative performance of open economies is analyzed in an endogenous growth model with asymmetric trade. A resource-rich country trades resource-based intermediates for final goods produced by a resource-poor economy. The effects of an increase in the resource endowment depend on the elasticity of substitution between resources and labor in intermediates' production. Under substitution (complementarity), the resource boom generates higher (lower) income, lower (higher) employment in the primary sector and faster (slower) growth in the resource-rich economy. In the resource-poor economy, the shock induces a higher (lower) relative wage and positive (negative) growth effects that are exclusively due to trade.     

A paradoxical future for safety in the global knowledge economy

Governments face increasingly acute dilemmas in securing the safety of their citizens in the face of controversial technological innovations. This state of crisis results from structural features of the globalising knowledge economy, and the contradictory roles of governments, acting both as promoters of global business enterprise and also as regulators on behalf of a sophisticated and suspicious public. I explain the crisis by substituting ‘safety’ for ‘risk’ as the operative concept, and also using paradox as an explanatory tool. I produce a closed-cycle paradox, analogous to the classic Catch-22, to exhibit the contradictions in the situation. I discuss ways of resolving these, which include the recognition of policy-critical ignorance and the adoption of the perspective of post-normal science.     

Risk management in the global economy: A review essay

This paper provides a review of developments in the area of risk management at both the firm level and the macro-economy. We review rationales regarding why firms choose to manage risk, as well as new developments in measuring and managing risk in a dynamic setting. We also consider current risk sharing arrangements in light of the theory regarding optimal risk sharing. The paper concludes with some suggestions for additional research that emphasizes the importance of incorporating market incompleteness in an equilibrium setting. We also discuss the role of incompleteness at the macro-level and speculate on how derivatives markets may influence macro-economic stabilization policy.     

Knowledge, skill, and education in the new global economy

This paper deals with three main topics. The first is the nature of post-industrial, service-based economies in which human capital has special importance. In the new global economy, sharp distinctions between services and goods become more difficult to draw, as exemplified by computer software, perhaps the purest embodiment so far of a knowledge-based industry in which human and organizational capital account for nearly all value added. Where does this intangible capital come from? That is the subject of the second section of the paper, which discusses the meanings attached to knowledge, skill and other components of human capital, sketching out a view emphasizing tacit know-how and the lessons of experience. This sets the stage for a third section outlining a number of implications for higher education.     

Private equity in the global economy: Evidence on industry spillovers

Using a novel dataset on global private equity investments in 19 industries across 52 countries, we find that labor productivity, employment, profitability, and capital expenditures increase for publicly-listed companies in the same country and industry as private equity investments. Our results show that positive externalities created by private equity firms are absorbed by other companies within the same industry. Consistent with prior literature on competitive spillovers, these effects are more pronounced in country-industries with higher levels of competition, stronger institutions, and moderate levels of technological development suggesting that the competitive pressures from private equity-backed firms cause industry peers to react.     

全球经济确定性和不确定性

全球经济在低位运行 2017年全球经济依然在低位运行,自2008年全球金融危机以后,除了2010年经济有一个非常强烈的反弹,以后经济增长速度缓缓地往下走,2016年全球经济增长速度是3.1%,这是非常低的速度,是从来没有发生过的事情,因为以往危机以后经济会反弹,反弹以后会下跌,再次反弹然后持续增长.过去的三年里,无数的机构预测经济会强烈地反弹直至强烈的增长,但并没有发生.     

Driving forces and barriers to a sustainable global economy

The major drivers of globalness are presented here from the perspective of the global economy as an emerging macrosystem. Key driving forces include not only technology, but also ideas and events. Special attention is given to ideas that have created more globalness in recent years and those that may be powerful in the future, and on possible macroevents that could act positively or negatively. Finally some barriers to further globalness are discussed.     

Thousands of models,one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy

The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. The chance that current accounts were aligned with fundamentals prior to the financial crisis appears to be minimal.     

世界经济复苏缓慢中国需改革创新谋出路

今后的改革重点就是要将政府作为改革的对象,要转变全能型政府为服务型政府     

次贷危机下的美国经济走势及其对全球经济的影响

从指标趋势看,引发此次次贷危机的美国房地产市场调整仍未结束,美信贷紧缩状况的持续对房地产市场和整体经济的复苏构成压力,巨额资金的救市措施从短期看更在于提振信心,从长期看其效果有待观察。全球经济亦将受到美经济衰退的拖累,但与其他经济体相比,美国经济仍显得更有弹性。     

Soft commodities and the global financial crisis: Implications for the economy,resources and institutions

Over the past decade, soft commodities have been subjected to increasing speculative price fluctuations. Following the 2008 financial crisis, most studies have highlighted causal relationships between price volatility, derivative and future markets for underlying financial assets as well as agricultural and mineral commodities. This article investigates the multifaceted effects of unrestrained financialization of the resources and goods markets and its implications for agricultural markets and soft commodities for purposes other than direct human consumption. We place a particular emphasis on the process of commodification of food and non-food crops and their use as green source of liquid fuels (i.e. soy, sugar cane, palm oil, jatropha, and canola). It is argued that speculation in financial markets has led to spillover effects across commodity and resource markets. More importantly, speculation and price volatility in the commodity markets has had a direct bearing on the resource markets and organization and appropriation of common-pool resources. The article sheds further light on the causal relationship between derivative markets, hedging techniques, financial yields and price volatility and spillover effects in the market for food and soft commodities.     

The world economy and the German economy in the spring of 1992

The world economy and the German economy in the spring of 1992     

加快科研成果推广 促进交行繁荣发展—首届“交通银行科研成果推广转让会”侧记

交通银行首届科研成果推广转让会于2002年11月21日至22日在上海举行.