投资项目财务评价内部收益率的比较研究

投资项目财务评价是可行性研究报告的核心内容之一,而内部收益率是判断项目财务可行性和预期盈利能力的主要指标。从内部收益率的经济含义入手,分析了项目投资内部收益率、项目资本金内部收益率和投资各方内部收益率3类内部收益率的适用条件和数量关系,认为项目投资内部收益率是项目融资前决策的首选指标,且只需计算所得税前指标;资本金内部收益率是项目融资决策分析的主要指标,当项目投资内部收益率大于银行利率时,资本金内部收益率大于项目投资内部收益率;当各股东（投资方）同股非同权或存在股权之外的收益分配时,需要计算投资各方内部收益率。     

The Internal Rate of Return Approach and the AIRR Paradigm: A Refutation and a Corroboration

This article shows that the internal rate of return (IRR) approach is unreliable and that the recently introduced average internal rate of return (AIRR) model constitutes the basis for an alternative theoretical paradigm of rate of return. To this end, we divide the paper into two parts: a pars destruens and a pars construens. In the “destructive” part, we present a compendium of 18 flaws associated with the IRR approach. In the “constructive” part, we construct the alternative approach from four (independent) economic intuitions and put the paradigm to the test by showing that it does not suffer from any of the flaws previously investigated. We also show how the IRR, as a rate of return, is absorbed into the new approach.     

Average Internal Rate of Return and Investment Decisions: A New Perspective

The internal rate of return (IRR) is often used by managers and practitioners for investment decisions. Unfortunately, it has serious flaws: (1) multiple real-valued IRRs may arise; (2) complex-valued IRRs may arise; (3) the IRR is, in general, incompatible with the net present value (NPV) in accept/reject decisions; (4) the IRR ranking is, in general, different from the NPV ranking; (5) the IRR criterion is not applicable with variable costs of capital. The efforts of economists and management scientists in providing a reliable project rate of return have generated over the decades an immense bulk of contributions aiming to solve these shortcomings. This article offers a complete solution to this long-standing unresolved issue by changing the usual perspective: the IRR equation is dismissed and the evaluator is allowed to describe the project as an investment or a borrowing at his discretion. This permits showing that any arithmetic mean of the one-period return rates implicit in a project reliably informs about a project's profitability and correctly ranks competing projects. With such a measure, which we call average internal rate of return, complex-valued numbers disappear and all the above-mentioned problems are wiped out. The economic meaning is compelling: it is the project return rate implicitly determined by the market. The traditional IRR notion may be found as a particular case.     

A Review of: “An Introduction to Mathematical Finance: Options and Other Topics By Sheldon M. Ross” Cambridge University Press,New York,New York, 1999, xv + 184 pp. ISBN ( 521-77043-2. List: $37.95. (hardback)

Surveys of businesses' capital budgeting practices reveal that the IRR is much preferred over the NPV as an investment decision making tool even though business scholars prescribe the NPV as theoretically optimal. Here practitioners' preference for the IRR is explained through ergonomics: the IRR is treated as a display method. As such it is more compatible with decision makers' expectations and therefore, is more cognitively efficient. Because the IRR is expressed as an interest rate, it more closely resembles an analog display, in which the IRR is simply compared to the required return. In contrast, the NPV is stated in dollars, resembling more a very precise digital display. Academicians should reorient their efforts from promoting the NPV to teaching methods to ameliorate the pitfalls of the IRR.     

A NEW APPROACH TO DEPRECIATION MEASUREMENT FOR PUBLIC UTILITIES: COMMENT

This paper examines the use of a simple heuristic for evaluating projects. We posit that ranking projects by IRR and rejecting marginal projects can be superior to a NPV rule if 1) project managers have incentives to overstate cash flow forecasts that occur late in a project's life, 2) project rankings determine project acceptance because not all positive NPV project's are accepted, and 3) a project's IRR is greater than the WACC. In these instances, the IRR heuristic undervalues distant cash flows and thus, reduces project managers' incentives to positively bias forecasts.     

Double vision: Insights about the origin and interpretation of multiple IRRs

The ability of a project's internal rate of return (IRR) to quantify its economic return has been questioned by many scholars over the past 60 years, most recently by Magni (2010 Magni, C.A. (2010) Average internal rate of return and investment decisions: a new perspective. The Engineering Economist, 55(2), 150–180. [Google Scholar], 2013 Magni, C.A. (2013) The internal rate of return approach and the AIRR paradigm: a refutation and a corroboration. The Engineering Economist, 58(2), 73–111. [Google Scholar]). Although IRR is a plausible—albeit imperfect—measure of a project's economic return when the cash flow stream is conventional, IRR can be an untenable measure of an unconventional project's economic return. The goal of this article is to identify a simple, intuitive explanation of IRR, one that can be applied to any cash flow pattern. To do this, the article shows how a project's IRR systematically changes when it first crosses from the conventional into the unconventional realm (i.e., a small cash outflow is appended to a conventional cash flow stream) and then as it becomes progressively more unconventional. This process reveals that the most robust economic interpretation of IRR—for both conventional and unconventional projects—is that a project's IRRs are external benchmarks that divide the set of all plausible discount rates into positive and negative net present value (NPV) ranges, rather than internally generated returns. Because it can be difficult to estimate a project's cost of capital with precision, this information can help guide the sensitivity analysis of a project.     

Irrigation potential and investment return in Kenya

The potential for irrigation investments in Kenya is highly dependent upon geographical, agronomic and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This study analyzed large dam-based and small-scale irrigation potential and investment needs for Kenya based on agronomic, hydrological, and economic factors. The analysis of small-scale irrigation expansion shows that the potential for investment in small-scale projects in Kenya ranges from 54,000 ha to 241,000 hectares, with an internal rate of return from 17% to 32%. For the dam-based investment analysis, under low-cost assumption, 58 dams of 73 are profitable (IRR > 0). At high cost level, the number is 52. If we raise the IRR cutoff value to 12%, 32 dams are economically feasible. We showed that there is considerable scope for the expansion of both dam-based and small-scale irrigation in Kenya, and we also provided a strategic prioritization for investments in irrigation schemes and projects.     

TECHNICAL NOTE : THE VARIABLE FINANCIAL INDICATOR IRR AND THE CONSTANT ECONOMIC INDICATOR NPV

The IRR (internal rate of return) and the NPV (net present value) are the two most common and important indicators in investment decisions. These two indicators, however, have intrinsic differences between one another. The IRR is a financial indicator and the NPV an economic indicator of a capital investment. The former gives the private investor's point of view and the latter the society's point of view. The value of ERR varies with the change of Financial arrangement of an investment. The NPV, however, does not but remains constant no matter how the financial arrangement changes. This paper uses an illustrative example to show their intrinsic differences and then describes a mathematical proof to substantiate the different natures of IRR and NPV.     

TOTAL BENEFICIAL GAIN

This paper uses the projected cash flow statements (PCFS) to interpret various economic efficiency criteria used in selection of a project. In the process, the article brings out the relationships between IRR, payback period and breakeven analysis. PCFS are also used to derive an ‘internal’ indicator of riskiness of a project.     

Return on marketing investments in B2B customer relationships: A decision-making and optimization approach

The basic notion of relationship marketing entails that firms should strive for mutually beneficial customer relationships. By combining relationship marketing theory and operations research methods, this paper aims to develop and demonstrate a managerial decision-making model that business market managers can use to optimize and evaluate marketing investments in both a customer-oriented and economically feasible manner. The intended contributions of our work are as follows. First, we add to the return on marketing literature by providing a first decision-making approach that explicitly assesses the optimization of marketing investments in terms of profitability, effort, and resource allocation. Second, we show how the risk of marketing investments can be assessed using sensitivity analysis. By means of an empirical study the versatility of our decision-making approach is demonstrated by assessing various critical decision making issues for business marketing managers in detail.     

Is There A “New” Internal Rate of Return Literature?

Recent writing in various real estate journals appears to have become interested in an issue which a number of other journals have treated previously. Specifically, the concept known as the internal rate of return (IRR) has been examined extensively by the literatures of business finance, management science, and economic theory. This paper surveys and reviews the literature by problem, journal and date. The paper concludes that this demonstration suggests the necessity of an understanding of literature in related disciplines as well as our own.     

A review of: “APPLIED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR TECHNOLOGISTS,ENGINEERS, AND MANAGERS ” BY MICHAEL S. BOWMAN Prentice-Hall,Inc., Upper Saddle River,New Jersey, 1999, xii + 561 pp., ISBN: 0-13-375932-6, List: $76.75.

In their recent paper Tang and Tang (2003 Tang, S. L. and Tang, H. J. 2003. The variable financial indicator IRR and the constant economic indicator NPV.. The Engineering Economist, Vol. 48(No. 1): pp. 69–78. [Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar], pp. 69–78) revive a longstanding controversy—net present value (NPV) versus internal rate of return (IRR)—by characterizing the NPV as an economic indicator and the IRR as a financial one. The paper implies that this distinction justifies ranking financial alternatives by ranking their IRRs. In the current article, it is argued that the direct IRR ranking does not necessarily provide the same evaluation environment—and therefore a fair comparison—for each alternative involved, and that the incremental ranking approach is needed to remedy this shortcoming. The article also points out that Tang and Tang's numerical examples of simple projects with one sign change in their cash flow patterns do not address the problem of multiple IRRs, which consequently renders Tang and Tang's ranking approach dysfunctional. It is demonstrated that the concept of a true rate of return, substituting for the non-performing IRR and applied in conjunction with the incremental approach, provides an adequate tool for ranking mutually exclusive projects or a project's technical or financial alternatives.     

PREPAYMENT OF INCOME TAX: A “SPREADSHEET” ANALYSIS

In their recent paper ( D. Asquith &; J.E. Bethel, “Using Heuristics to Evaluate Projects: The Case of Ranking Projects by IRR,” The Engineering Economist, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Spring 1995, pp. 287-294) ), the authors propose a project ranking procedure that is supposed to mitigate the impact of cash flow overvaluation by project managers. In the current contribution, it is indicated that this procedure is based upon a project ranking approach that employs the IRR criterion in a theoretically inadequate way. The correct, incremental approach to the IRR-based project ranking is reiterated, and it is shown that if this approach is applied, then its very design reduces the impact of CF-biases on project ranking. It is also demonstrated that even if competing projects are of equal scale, they must still be ranked by incremental comparison. Finally, it is pointed out that the incremental project ranking is the proper approach regardless of which NPV-compatible profitability measure is applied.     

Ex post evaluation of PPP government-led renegotiations: Impacts on the financing of road infrastructure

Renegotiations are often claimed to be the major pitfall in public–private partnership projects. In fact, the literature and empirical evidence suggest a bias toward favoring concessionaires, although there are well-known examples of harmful unilateral decisions by governments. This article establishes a distinction between structural renegotiations (with changes in the risk-sharing agreement) and nonstructural renegotiations (without shifting risk) and analyzes the implications of structural renegotiations in a road concession by comparing the ex ante and ex post financial implications for government, concessionaire, and users. The selected project is one that started as a shadow toll and was later changed to real toll. The analysis shows that the renegotiation essentially transferred costs to the users. The financial burden for the government decreased and the internal rate of return (IRR) of the concessionaire increased slightly although the overall risk profile of the concession decreased. The users supported a 40% higher cost, and the system gained an additional cost component (the electronic tolling system). Overall the global financial costs increased 40% when compared with the initial regime. The article also sets out some discussions and implications for policymakers.     

从产业结构关联看江苏省产业结构的调整方向

在经济活动中,各产业部门之间存在着既广泛复杂而又密切的技术经济联系。投入产出分析中,运用影响力系数和感应度系数来反映一个产业影响或受其他产业的波及程度。本文利用江苏省2007年和2002年投入产出资料实证分析了该省目前的产业关联现状及其特点,并据此提出江苏省产业结构调整的政策建议。     

我国跨境油气管道管输费制定模式

从中亚、中哈和中俄陆上油气管道的管输费制定模式上可以看出,管输费的制定并没有统一的模式,但都符合成本回收和投资回报的基本原则;管输费的制定应充分考虑管道所在国政府的相关管理规定,并按照其管输费制定模式对国际通用的财务内部收益率（IRR）方法进行调整。在对外合作项目的商务交流活动中,谈判需要一定的灵活性,不宜一味坚持国内适用的财务内部收益率法的管输费制定模式。建议国内相关部门和单位,参照已经运行的跨境管道的管输费制定模式,对今后海外管道项目的经济评价和管输费制定公式进行调整与完善,以便更好地适应对外项目合作的需要。     

Graduated Flood Risks and Property Prices in Galveston County

Our hedonic property analysis approach in Galveston County, Texas aims at estimating the impacts of flood risks and water‐related amenities in a more systematic way. First, we interact distance to the nearest coastline and flood risk in order to account for these impacts acting together on housing sales prices in our coastal community. Second, we use more granular flood risk measure in the analysis compared to the existing literature. Results show that the hedonic price effect is dependent upon the distance to the nearest coastline, and as expected the distance effect varies by flood risk type. We find that in this coastal housing market properties located in the highest risk flood area, for up to nearly a quarter mile from the nearest coastline, actually command a price premium. A recent movement toward risk‐based flood insurance premiums in the United States was deeply opposed by the real estate sector for fear of causing property values to steeply decline. This analysis sheds some further light on this depressed property value assertion highlighting its sensitivity to distance to the water.     

Workplace Flexibilities,Job Satisfaction and Union Membership in the US Workforce

Using individual‐level data from the 2008 National Study of the Changing Workforce, we quantify how workers' job satisfaction levels correlate with five schedule‐based workplace flexibilities. The data permit us to control for numerous variables that might otherwise explain variation in the probability of job satisfaction, including, but not limited to, income, benefits, stress, depression, job control and individual preferences over flexibilities. Conditional on this control set, we find that workplace flexibilities correlate with an 8.1 per cent increase in job satisfaction. The relationship between job satisfaction and workplace flexibilities prevails through several sensitivity analyses, bias assessments and a propensity score matching analysis. We also explore how job satisfaction, union membership and workplace flexibilities intermix; we find that workplace flexibilities may function as a partial substitute for union membership.     

RANKING MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE PROJECTS: THE ROLE OF DURATION

This paper develops a new measure of cash-flow timing called “return duration.” Numerically quite close to Macaulay duration, return duration is a straightforward function of a project's net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). When comparing mutually exclusive projects, differences in return duration can explain ranking conflicts between NPV and IRR. The paper also clarifies the conditions under which a manager should consider duration or generalized NPV before making investment decisions when faced with such ranking conflicts.     

非常规人才发现、培养和使用的战略思考

以非标准化和个性化的＂非常规人才＂为研究对象,认为需要建立一种机制以确保非常规人才的发现、培养和使用,并视其为一个过程连续体的三个环节。基于这三个环节作者提出了建议性的认知逻辑和分析方法：在发现环节应遵循察举路径;在培养环节要去功利导向,采用农业生产模式;在使用环节,要坚持人文导向和理性启蒙并举。非常规人才的培养不仅是一个教育问题,更是一个复杂的社会问题。