Inflation and output volatility under asymmetric incomplete information

The assumption of asymmetric and incomplete information in a standard New Keynesian model creates strong incentives for monetary policy transparency. We assume that the central bank has better information about its objectives than the private sector, and that the private sector has better information about shocks than the central bank. Transparency has the potential to trigger a virtuous circle in which all agents find it easier to make inferences and the economy is better stabilised. Our analysis improves upon existing work by endogenising the volatility of both output and inflation. Improved transparency most likely manifests itself in falling output volatility.     

信息非对称条件下物流外包之博弈分析

在全球化和竞争日益激烈的社会里,企业为了专注于核心竞争力的需要,把物流外包给第三方物流公司。物流外包给企业带来了巨大的竞争优势,但也给企业带来新的风险,这种物流外包风险有其内在的必然性,是信息不对称条件下的委托-代理风险,采取有效措施减少物流外包风险对企业发展有重要意义。     

中国债券市场开放度的博弈分析

本文从信息是否完全的角度出发,运用博弈论和信息经济学的相关理论,对债券市场信息不对称、境外机构发行人民币债券和境外机构市场准入问题进行了静态和动态博弈分析。求解了不同情况下的纳什均衡,对债券融资中现实问题给予了理论阐述和证明,并分析了境外机构在境内发行人民币债券的各种影响。     

基于演化博弈模型的电子政务业务协同标准扩散研究

电子政务标准化是部门间业务协同的基本条件,反映了国家电子政务发展的成熟度.本文采用演化博弈的方法,研究政府部门间业务协同标准扩散中相互联系、相互作用,从而达到均衡的动态过程.结果表明,电子政务业务协同标准化扩散过程及其均衡点的主要影响因素有采纳业务协同标准采纳之前部门原有的业务基本收益、标准采纳之后所获得的部门内部价值收益、标准采纳有形成本、标准采纳无形风险等.因此,明确电子政务业务协同标准制定与推广部门的主导地位、加强电子政务与政府管理创新意识的结合以及实现电子政务业务协同与大部门体制改革的有效融合是推进电子政务业务协同标准扩散的有效方式.     

有限理性假设下供应链合作博弈的定性模拟研究

本文放宽一般博弈论中理性人的假设,运用混合建模方法构建了有限理性下的供应链合作博弈模型,模型将供应链企业的收益模糊化并扩展供应链合作博弈中局中人的策略空间,可以选择从“0”(完全不合作)到“1”(完全合作)连续区间内的任何合作程度,策略集是连续的区间.模拟结果表现为供应链合作策略的调整过程,能够提供更有效的决策支持.在此基础上,以二人合作博弈为例,用结合定性信息的定性模拟方法对博弈过程进行研究,得到结论:在供应链合作中,无论是平均分配还是按成员企业的资源投入分配,从模拟结果来看,定性模拟方法的使用,对一些不具备完备信息,无法建立精确数学模型的博弈过程也可以进行分析,并得出相对满意的结论.     

Cooperation through imitation and exclusion in networks

We study the coevolution of networks and action choices in a Prisoners' Dilemma. Agents in our model learn about both action choices and choices of interaction partners (links) by imitating successful behavior of others. The resulting dynamics yields outcomes where both cooperators and defectors coexist under a wide range of parameters. Two scenarios can arise. Either there is “full separation” of defectors and cooperators, i.e. they are found in two different, disconnected components. Or there is “marginalization” of defectors, i.e. connected networks emerge with a center of cooperators and a periphery of defectors.     

不对称合作关系的契约设计原理分析

不对称合作关系在企业合作中广泛存在。从合作产出、绩效衡量以及报酬补偿等方面分析不对称合作契约设计的原理;在构建不对称合作契约模型基础上,与完全信息下最优契约比较,说明不对称信息条件下双边道德风险对合作收益的影响;讨论不对称合作中不同绩效衡量和风险态度的契约激励效果;并据此阐释企业经济人的契约行为。     

上市公司CEO的监管机制：一个三方博弈视觉的思考

所有权与经营权的分离是现代企业的基本特征,内部人控制问题已成为制约上市公司健康稳定发展的瓶颈因素。本文通过建立一个CEO、董事会和外部监管机构三方之间的博弈模型,强调了监管的重要性;并从完善董事会职能和加强外部监管力度两个方面对上市公司CEO的道德风险之监管提出合理性建议。     

基于合作博弈下制造商主导的供应链定价决策研究

利用博弈理论,针对制造商主导的供应链,通过建立博弈模型,探讨制造商与分销商的二级供应链的定价决策,即首先通过非合作博弈模型与合作博弈模型比较分析,找出合作博弈模型的缺陷,然后在合作博弈模型的基础上进行两方面的改进:通过设计一个利润分配因子确定定价范围,然后根据讨价还价能力确定最优定价,以及通过引入时间因素,与线性函数结合起来确定最优价格以及市场需求量。最后通过实例来进一步验证定价模型的可行性。     

我国企业研发组织模式创新研究：分类、现状与趋势

面对日益激烈的市场竞争,企业要建立核心竞争优势,其研发创新必不可少。研发组织模式的选择在研发环节中扮演着至关重要的角色,它直接关系到企业的研发绩效和创新潜力。本文从研发组织形态、研发组织结构以及技术资金来源及投入三个维度对企业研发组织模式进行探索,并面向北京市中关村高新技术示范区内的企业展开访谈及问卷调查,分析了研发组织模式的发展现状及创新趋势。     

Dynamic contracting under imperfect public information and asymmetric beliefs

We develop a dynamic principal–agent model to show how imperfect public information and asymmetric beliefs about payoff-relevant parameters, agency conflicts, and the agent's implicit incentives to influence the principal's posterior beliefs through his unobservable actions interact to affect optimal dynamic contracts. We make a methodological contribution to the literature by solving the continuous-time contracting problem using a discrete-time approximation approach. We obtain a simple characterization of optimal renegotiation-proof contracts in terms of the solution to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE). We then exploit the properties of the ODE to derive a number of novel implications for the dynamics of long-term contracts that alter the intuition gleaned from the previous literature. Optimism has a first-order impact on incentives, investment and output that could reconcile the “private equity” puzzle. Consistent with empirical evidence, the interaction between asymmetric beliefs, risk-sharing and adverse selection costs could cause the time-paths of the agent's incentive intensities to be increasing or decreasing. Our results also suggest that the incorporation of imperfect public information and asymmetric beliefs could potentially reconcile empirical evidence of an ambiguous relation between risk and incentives, and a non-monotonic relation between firm value and incentives. Permanent and transitory components of risk have differing effects on incentives, which suggest that empirical investigations of the link between risk and incentives should appropriately account for different components of risk.     

Agglomeration economies with consistent productivity estimates

This paper investigates the relative impact of microeconomic agglomeration mechanisms on plant's total factor productivity (TFP) using German establishment and employment-level data. Contrasting different strategies for estimating TFP from plant-level production functions reveals that unobserved output prices bias true productivity and lead to underestimated agglomeration economies. With the corrected TFP measure, the largest impact is found for labor market pooling, which is captured by the correlation of the occupational composition between one county-industry and the rest of the county. This main result is robust, even when the spatial units are resized from counties to larger labor market regions. Input linkages appear to be relevant only at this larger regional scale. Overall, agglomeration economies differ substantially across industries. Only for a subset of industries, some positive evidence is detected for knowledge spillovers.     

Why Are Concavity Conditions Not Satisfied in the Cost Function? The Case of Japanese Manufacturing Firms during the Bubble Period*

This paper examines empirically the reasons why Japanese manufacturing firms frequently fail to satisfy concavity of the cost function in input prices. We focus on the ‘bubble period’ in the 1980s when land was in great demand and land prices soared. By estimating the translog cost function with land as one of production inputs, we find that violation of concavity mainly resulted from weak bank–firm relationship and massive transactions of land. We also demonstrate that elasticities of substitution between land and other inputs are estimated quite differently if the firms violating concavity are not excluded from the analysis.     

Sources of Sectoral Growth in an Economy Wide Context: The Case of U.S. Agriculture

Growth in U.S. agriculture is linked to the non-farm economy through domestic terms of trade and factor market adjustments. With almost stable input growth, the relatively large contributions from growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) are passed on to intermediate and final consumers in the form of declining real prices for primary farm products. The resulting net growth in the real value of farm output (GDP) is relatively low (0.25% per annum). The decomposition of TFP suggests that public agricultural stock of knowledge and infrastructure are robustly associated with TFP growth, while spill-overs from private agricultural and economy wide research and development (R and D) are positive but, relatively small.     

完善我国企业研发人员股权激励税收优惠政策研究

科技研发人员肩负着科技兴国的重任,越来越多的企业研发人员作为股权激励对象为科技创新和研发产出创造价值。但现行对研发人员股权激励的税收政策却不尽完善。梳理我国股权激励情况及现行股权激励税收政策和规定,发现对研发人员股权激励适用税收政策并未体现对研发人员股权激励税收优惠政策,同时现有税收规定不甚合理,难以发挥长期激励作用。鉴于此,应建立健全研发人员股权激励税收政策体系,合理设计针对研发人员的股权激励税收政策,以列举以及实质推演的方式,按照持有时间长短等设定个人所得税税率等,发挥股权激励税收优惠政策对研发人员的长期激励作用。     

久菱牌3ZP-0.8型甘蔗中耕培土机的研发

3ZP-0.8型甘蔗中耕培土机是广西贵港动力有限公司新研发的机型。文章叙述3ZP-0.8型甘蔗中耕培土机关键部件的结构特点,并通过试验表明：该机适用于在行距为0.9～1.2 m的甘蔗行内进行中耕作业,达到碎土除草、起垄培土的目的。