UK Multinationals' Effective Use of Financial Currency‐Hedge Techniques: Estimating and Explaining Foreign Exchange Exposure Using Bilateral Exchange Rates

Using a unique dataset of recently available accounting disclosures, this study examines the relationship between UK multinationals' stock returns and changes in the principal exchange rate to which each firm is most exposed. We find more firms with significant foreign exchange exposure estimates using this firm‐specific principal currency data, compared with those exposure estimates using the broad exchange rate index data prevalent in prior studies. The cross‐sectional variations in such principal‐currency exposure estimates are explained in relation to the financial currency‐hedge techniques that each firm specifically identifies as being used to manage its currency risk. In particular, we provide evidence that firms effectively use foreign currency derivatives and foreign‐denominated debt to reduce the currency risk associated with the bilateral exchange rate to which they are most exposed. This study is important to both the academic and the practitioner communities because it represents the first use of publicly available UK disclosures to improve the estimation and explanation of foreign exchange exposure.     

The euro and developing country finance: A survey

More than eight years after the introduction of the euro, impacts on developing countries have been relatively modest. Overall, the euro has become much more important in debt issuance than in official foreign exchange reserve holdings. The former has benefited from the creation of a large set of investors for which the euro is the home currency, while demand for euro reserves has been held back by the dominance of the dollar as a vehicle and intervention currency, and the greater liquidity of the market for US treasury securities. Fears of further dollar decline may fuel some shifts out of dollars into euros, however, with the potential for a period of financial instability.     

A deterministic analysis of change in international unit labor costs: Import implications for US industry

United States industry faces an import threat in the domestic market because foreign exporters achieve lower growth in their unit labor dollar cost. A deterministic analysis of the sources of change over the decade 1974–84 shows that although most foreign trade partners experienced a higher rate of growth in hourly labor compensation than the United States, they discounted this cost disadvantage by achieving more than offsetting cost reductions from growth in labor productivity and in the foreign currency to US dollar exchange rate.     

Foreign Currency Translation Reporting and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect

This study further explores a structural break in the relation between stock returns of firms with foreign currency positions and lagged exchange rate changes (exchange rate exposure effect) documented in Bartov and Bodnar (1994). We examine whether changes in the financial accounting reporting of foreign currency positions from SFAS No. 52 might have improved investors' ability to characterize firms' economic exchange rate exposures, and thus the impact of exchange rate movements on firm value. Our findings indicate that only firms reporting using the dollar as the functional currency (i.e., those reporting as if they were still under SFAS No. 8) retain a significant relation between the lagged change in the dollar and firm value in the post-SFAS No. 52 period. For firms reporting using the foreign currency as the functional currency (i.e., those who switched to the new translation method) the significant lagged relation disappears. This is consistent with the use of a foreign currency as the functional currency under SFAS No. 52 facilitating valuation of U.S. firms with foreign operations.     

Sovereign rating changes—Do they provide new information for stock markets?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of sovereign rating changes on international financial markets using a comprehensive database of 42 countries, covering the major regions in the world over the period 1995–2003. In general, we find that rating agencies provide stock and foreign exchange markets with new tradable information. Specifically, rating upgrades (downgrades) significantly increased (decreased) USD denominated stock market returns and decreased (increased) volatility. Whereas the mean response is contributed evenly by the local currency stock returns and exchange rate changes that make up the USD returns, only the foreign exchange volatility was behind the USD denominated return volatility. In addition, we find significant asymmetric effects of rating announcements. The market responses – both return and volatility – are more pronounced in the cases of downgrades, foreign currency debt, emerging market debt, and during crisis periods. This study has important policy implications for international investors’ asset allocation plans and for regulatory bodies such as the Basel Committee who increasingly rely upon Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch's ratings for their regulatory regimes.     

Entry of foreign banks in Shanghai: implications for business strategies in an increasingly competitive market

This paper uses a simple mean‐variance choice model as the basis of a duration analysis of the factors determining the decision of a foreign bank to establish a branch in Shanghai, the fast developing financial centre in China. Bank attributes, namely region of origin, parent bank size, the number of international branches and their branch network in China, have a significant impact on the time to entry. A country's share of total foreign direct investment in Shanghai also significantly affects the entry decision. The attributes facilitating entry also provide the foreign bank with a competitive advantage in its foreign currency transactions in Shanghai. However, with the ensuing market liberalisations after China's WTO accession, the entrants' competitiveness may not be sustained in the local currency market, especially following the proactive business strategies of Chinese banks and the protectionist measures of the government. It is expected that only a small number of the entrants will be able to emerge as big market players in the growing domestic currency market in Shanghai. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Association Between the Level of International Diversification and Risk

This study analyzes the association between the degree of international involvement (DOI) and risk. Both systematic risk (measured by the market model beta) and total risk (measured by variance of return) are analyzed. Betas of fully diversified foreign stock portfolios are shown to be lower than betas of domestic portfolios. Therefore, if the beta of a foreign investment by a U.S. firm is equal to the average beta of an investment in the foreign market, then overall firm beta will decrease as DOI increases (hypothesis). While total risk might be decreased due to the diversification provided by increasing DOI, currency, political, and other risks could cause total risk to increase. Briefly, the results of this study suggest that (1) systematic risk is negatively related to DOI even after controlling for other factors known to be associated with systematic risk, (2) intertemporal changes in systematic risk are negatively related to intertemporal changes in DOI, and (3) in contrast to the results of previous research, DOI is not negatively related to total risk and, in fact, intertemporal changes in total firm risk are marginally positively related to intertemporal changes in DOI.
Our results suggest that increasing DOI decreases systematic risk but increases total risk. Year to year changes in both beta and variance of return appear to be related to year to year changes in DOI. While currency, political, and other risks of international operations increase total risk, these risks apparently can be diversified away resulting in a beta that behaves as a blending of its previous level and the beta of a fully diversified investment in the foreign market.     

货币反替代及其对中国股市的冲击

货币反替代是指在一国的经济发展过程中，居民在本币坚挺且存在升值趋势下，普遍看好本币的币值或在本币货币资产收益率明显高于外国货币资产收益率时，改变原来对外币的偏好，从而抛售外币资产，持有本币资产，使外币过分集中于中央银行的行为和现象。本文在封“热钱”的内涵进行辨析的基础土，分析货币反替代的目的和渠道，并封1990—2007年货币反替代率进行测度，进而实证检睑货币反替代封中国股市的冲击，研究发现：货币反替代规模较大、流动速度加快、反转性强；货币反替代与国内股票价格正相关，即货币反替代会推动国内股价上涨；当货币反替代出现反转时，则会引起国内股价下跌.     

Financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms facing foreign competition: Evidence from trade liberalization

This study examines financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms following an increase in foreign product market competition. To capture exogenous shocks to domestic firms' competitive environments, we exploit a quasi‐natural experiment from large import tariff reductions over the 1984 to 2005 period in the manufacturing sector. Using data for the years before and after large tariff reductions, our difference‐in‐differences analysis shows evidence of a significant decrease in analyst coverage for incumbent U.S. firms when they face greater entry threat from foreign competitors. We also find that analysts with less firm‐specific experience and less accurate prior‐period forecasts are more likely to stop following the domestic firm when foreign competition intensifies. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign product market competition from global trade liberalization is an important determinant of financial analysts' coverage decisions.     

企业债务期限结构配置及其治理对策——湘火矩汽车股份案例

本文认为,债务期限结构错配是我国许多高速扩张企业出现流动性财务危机的主要原因之一,但在现有商业银行信贷期限结构错配和企业债券市场不发达的金融背景约束下,我国企业很难通过增加长期债务的方式来改变债务期限与资产期限错配的问题,唯有通过降低财务杠杆的方法来降低流动性风险。在现有金融市场条件下,企业现实的选择是债务期限结构错配和低财务杠杆,不能采用高财务杠杆方式来实现企业的高速增长,否则很容易陷入财务困境。     

Did China diversify its foreign reserves?

This paper takes a novel approach to detect the latent currency portfolio of Chinese foreign exchange reserves and the underlying portfolio management strategies during 2000 and 2007. Based on a portfolio accounting identity and the budget constraint of the Chinese central bank's holding of foreign assets, the monthly growth rate of reserves can be decomposed into monthly rate of return, valuation effects of exchange rates, and monthly net purchase rate. The valuation effect reveals the value share of each currency. Bayesian inference is adopted to estimate the state‐space model with a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The results show that China significantly and dramatically diversified its reserves out of the US dollar in 2002: both the euro's value and quantity shares increased from 5% to more than 20%. By the end of 2007, China held about (at most) 67.3% of its reserves in the US dollar, 22% in the euro, 2.5% in the Japanese yen, 4.7% in the Australian dollar, and 3.5% in the British pound. The average annual rate of return was about 3%. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Plant Scale and Exchange‐Rate‐Induced Productivity Growth

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate movements on firm‐level productivity through changes in the scale of production. We employ plant‐level data to examine whether, and in what direction, exchange rate movements affect the scale of production, and how these changes in scale influence productivity. The paper finds that a real appreciation of the domestic currency reduces shipments and this negative effect is larger for exporters (both domestic and foreign owned). The paper also finds evidence that the appreciation‐induced reduction of scale negatively affects productivity at the plant level. This scale effect more than offsets any potential gains from the appreciation‐induced reduction in the price of imported inputs.     

Do the differences in legal systems hinder international enterprises’ debt financing?

This study examines the impact of the differences in the legal system concerning obligation claim rights between host and multinational enterprises' (MNEs) home countries on bank credit financing by constructing a legal system distance index including four dimensions. Using 57,526 firm-year panel observations of 7,257 firms from 53 countries operating in China, the results find that legal system distance has a negative impact on foreign firms' debt financing. The influential mechanism is due to the increasing transaction costs. Further test finds that the negative effect declines as the cultural differences increase. The heterogeneity analysis finds that the negative impact of the legal system distance on the debt level is more pronounced for those foreign firms with a large scale, short operating age, not enough collateral, and sales in the domestic market, but shows no significant differences between a sole proprietorship and joint ventures. This study not only expands the literature on “Law and Finance” but also provides an implication for foreign firms' debt financing in the emerging host country.     

Firm Characteristics and the Pricing of Foreign Earnings of US Multinational Firms

Prior research finds a positive relation between current changes in foreign earnings of USmultinational firms and future stock returns. The cause of this relation is either (1) investors' mispricing of securities by underestimating the persistence of foreign earnings or (2) research design misspecifications (e.g., the researcher failing to control for cross‐sectional differences in risk). The purpose of this study is to determine which of these two competing explanations is more likely. If the anomalous results are due to market mispricing, then the anomalous results should be more pronounced for firms that are followed by fewer well‐informed, sophisticated investors and for firms that have foreign earnings that are more persistent than domestic earnings. If the anomaly is related to research design misspecification, then the existence of the anomaly is not expected to vary across these firm characteristics. The results are more consistent with the market mispricing hypothesis. Predicting the existence of the foreign earnings anomaly based on these firm‐specific characteristics increases our understanding of the true nature of the anomaly. In addition, relating the foreign earnings anomaly to firm‐specific characteristics provides relevant information to investors for firm valuation and helps to promote future academic research in the market's valuation of multinational firms' operations.     

International tenders and futures hedging

This paper examines the optimal bidding and hedging decisions of a risk‐averse firm that takes part in an international tender. The firm faces multiple sources of uncertainty: exchange rate risk, risk of an unsuccessful tender, and business risk. The firm is allowed to trade unbiased currency futures contracts to imperfectly hedge its contingent foreign exchange risk exposure. We show that the firm shorts less (more) of the unbiased futures contracts when its marginal utility function is convex (concave) as compared with the case that the marginal utility function is linear. We further show that the curvature of the marginal utility function plays a decisive role in determining the impact of currency futures hedging on the firm's bidding behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the firm bids more or less aggressively than in the case without hedging opportunities are derived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Securitization, liquidity, and the Brady plan

Securitization of bank loans is proposed as a solution to the ongoing debt difficulties for emerging market nations. This paper analyzes the effects of the Brady plan for four participating countries. In addition to resolving repayment problems, the plan had a statistically significant effect on prices due to its positive impact on liquidity. Previously, the market for traded bank debt was illiquid and dominated by a few large traders who depressed the price by exerting oligopsony power. By using Perron’s method of discerning breaks, it is found that the introduction of bonds led to structural change in the LDC secondary debt market. These effects are in addition to those of debt resolution and domestic reform.     

Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure: Risk Reduction from Transaction and Translation Hedging

Using a sample of Swedish firms we investigate the risk reducing effect of foreign exchange exposure hedging. Further, we investigate risk reduction from using different hedging instruments, and particular interest is directed towards the impact of transaction exposure hedges and translation exposure hedges respectively. We find that firms' foreign exchange exposure is increasing with the level of inherent exposure, measured as the difference between revenues and costs denominated in foreign currency, and that it is decreasing with firm size. We find a significant reduction in foreign exchange exposure from the use of financial hedges. The evidence suggests that the usage of foreign denominated debt as well as currency derivatives reduce firms' foreign exchange exposure. Further, we find that transaction exposure hedges significantly reduce exposure, and that translation exposure hedges also reduce exposure. A possible explanation for the latter is that translation exposure approximates the exposed value of future cash flows from operations in foreign subsidiaries (i.e. economic exposure). If so, by hedging translation exposure, economic exposure is reduced.     

Strategic R&D Location by Multinational Firms: Spillovers, Technology Sourcing, and Competition

This paper develops a model of strategic interaction in R&D internationalization decisions between two multinational firms, competing both abroad and in their home markets. It examines different incentives for foreign R&D faced by a technology leader and a technology laggard. The model takes into account the impact of local inter firm R&D spillovers, (noncostless) international intra firm transfer of knowledge, and the notion that internal R&D increases the effectiveness of incoming spillovers. Analytical results suggest that greater efficiency of intra firm transfers and greater R&D spillovers increase the attractiveness of domestic R&D for the technology leader if the technology gap with the laggard is large. The lagging firm, in contrast, increases the share of foreign R&D as foreign technology sourcing becomes more effective. Competition encourages the leading firm to engage in foreign R&D to capture a larger share of profits on the foreign market, whereas the laggard concentrates more R&D at home to defend its home market position.     

关于国际本位货币历史沿革与发展趋势研究的文献综述

从布雷顿森林体系建立开始,美元就一直在国际货币体系中占据核心位置,本轮全球性金融危机中亦深刻体现了现有体系难以有效"约束"美元,并最终酿成了世界性的恶果。有关美元垄断地位的可持续性以及未来的国际本位货币格局再次成为关注的焦点,成为摆在我们面前非常值得研究的课题。文章试图系统梳理百年发展史中国际本位货币的基本特征、运行机制、演变过程,引出对国际本位币历史沿革的全面了解。并归纳总结国内外学术界关于国际货币体系改革的几种主流观点,以基于演变规律的基础上,探讨国际本位货币的未来走向、拟遵循什么样的改革原则和改革方案以顺应国际本位货币的发展趋势。     

The economic effects of a stronger dollar

• A stronger dollar might help exports for some emerging markets, but through other channels it could have a negative impact on growth and financial stability. Our analysis suggests a re‐run of the crisis conditions of 1998-99 is unlikely, but there are areas of significant vulnerability. The dollar's strength reinforces our view that emerging growth will slow in 2015, to the slowest pace since 2009 – with risks to the downside.
• Dollar strength may be negative for emerging markets via several channels – by increasing the burden of dollar‐denominated debt, by lowering key commodity prices, by choking off capital inflows and forcing up interest rates and by triggering private sector deleveraging. These channels will operate to different degrees in different countries, though overall emerging markets look less risky than they did at the end of the 1990s.
• Highly indebted countries with inflation problems and high commodity dependence are the most at risk from dollar strength. Looking across the various indicators of vulnerability we see Malaysia, Chile, Turkey, Russia and Venezuela as most vulnerable. Among the countries better placed to weather a strong dollar are China and India.