Joint estimation of discount rates and willingness to pay for public goods

We analyze willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental programs whose time periods of benefit and repayment differ, using a net present value framework that identifies parameters of both WTP and personal discount rates. Respondents to a contingent valuation survey focusing on protection of critical habitat buffer zones for the endangered Steller Sea Lion in Alaska were asked their willingness to pay for 1-, 5-, and 15-year repayment periods. We jointly estimate the personal discount rates and WTP via maximum likelihood, and compare with a model assuming a fixed, market discount rate.     

Spatial discounting of ecosystem services

The impact of conservation efforts targeted at preserving ecosystem services largely depend on the welfare implications associated with spatial variations in the provision of ecosystem services. While there is ample empirical evidence of spatial discounting or decay of the valuation of ecosystem services, there are still few underpinnings based on welfare economic theory. We establish a theory of spatial discounting that closely follows the concept of time discounting pertaining to climate change, and show spatial discount rates in the consumption, ecosystem service, and willingness to pay (WTP) numeraires. We consider the role of key parameters such as pure rate of spatial preference, consumption change, ecosystem services change, population density, and elasticity of marginal utility. We find that the spatial discount rate of WTP for ecosystem services that frequently appears in the empirical literature is the difference between the ecosystem service discount rate and consumption discount rate, where the ecosystem service discount rate includes both physical distance decay and welfare effects. Finally, we use numerical simulations to illustrate how the three different spatial discount rates vary with the spatial distance from the source of ecosystem services and with consumption patterns, implying many more possible spatial variations of WTP.     

Discounting the Distant Future: An Experimental Investigation

We use a laboratory experiment to elicit discount rates over a 20-year time horizon using government savings bonds as a payment vehicle. When using a constant (exponential) discount rate function, we find an implied average discount rate of 4.9 %, which is much lower than has been found in previous experimental studies that used time horizons of days or months. However, we also find strong support for non-constant, declining discount rates for longer time horizons, with an extrapolated implied annual discount rate approaching 0.5 % in 100 years. There is heterogeneity in discount rates and risk preferences in that people with more optimistic beliefs about technological progress have higher discount rates. These findings contribute to the debate over the appropriate discount rate to use in comparing the long-term benefits of climate change mitigation to the more immediate costs.     

Does Question Format Matter? Valuing an Endangered Species

A three-way treatment design is used to compare contingent valuation response formats. Respondents are asked to value an endangered species (the red-cockaded woodpecker) and the restoration of its habitat following a natural disaster. For three question formats (open-ended, payment card, and double-bounded dichotomous choice), differences in survey response rates, item non-response rates, and protest bids are examined. Bootstrap techniques are used to compare means across formats and to explore differences in willingness to pay (WTP) distribution functions. Convergent validity is found in a comparison of mean WTP values, although some differences are apparent in the cumulative distribution functions. Differences across formats are also identified in item non-response rates and proportion of protest bids. Overall, the payment card format exhibits desirable properties relative to the other two formats.     

Eliciting Individual Discount Rates

Controlled laboratory conditions using monetary incentives have been utilized in previous studies that examine individual discount rates, and researchers have found several apparently robust anomalies. We conjecture that subject behavior in these experiments may be affected by (uncontrolled) factors other than discount rates. We address some experimental design issues and report a new series of experiments designed to elicit individual discount rates. Our primary treatments include: (i) informing subjects of the annual and effective interest rates associated with alternative payment streams, and (ii) informing subjects of current market interest rates. We also test for the effect of real (vs. hypothetical) payments and for the effect of delaying both payment options (vs. offering an immediate payment option). The statistical analysis uses censored data techniques to account for the interactions between field and lab incentives. Each of the information treatments appears to reduce revealed discount rates. When both types of information are provided, annual rates in the interval of 15%–17.5% are revealed, whereas rates of 20%–25% are revealed in the control session. Each of the treatments also lowers the residual variance of subject responses.     

Empirical and public choice evidence for hyperbolic social discount rates and the implications for intergenerational discounting

The derivation of the correct discount rate for intergenerational projects in Cost Benefit Analysis is particularly contentious. Public choice has resulted in lower discretionary exponential discount rates for many intergenerational projects in Britain and the USA. This is shown to be strong indirect evidence that the true social discount rate may be a hyperbolic (rather than an exponential) function. There is also empirical evidence for this hypothesis. The hyperbolic nature of discounting is also a standard finding in the behavioural sciences. For intergenerational time frames hyperbolic discount rates should be employed together with exponential discount rates in cost-benefit sensitivity analyses.Sincere thanks to Maureen Cropper and Paul Portney for supplying their survey results and to Elaine Barrow and Phillip Judge for graphics assistance. Two anonymous referees also provided valuable comments.     

媒体关注与公司现金股利支付*

随着中国证监会针对上市公司现金股利支付行为的一系列政策的出台,公司的现金股利支付行为成为广受热议的重点话题。本文从媒体关注视角研究了中国上市公司的现金股利支付行为。通过实证研究,本文得到如下研究结论：（1）媒体关注的增多可以显著提高公司未来股利支付意愿和支付水平;（2）媒体关注与“铁公鸡”公司、“微股利”公司的比例显著负相关;（3）与国有控股公司相比,媒体关注对民营控股公司未来股利支付意愿和支付水平的正面影响更为显著;（4）媒体关注对第一类和第二类代理问题更严重的公司的现金股利支付意愿和支付水平的正向影响更强。进一步的研究还显示,媒体关注与现金股利支付意愿和支付水平的正相关关系在管理层持股比例低、非国际四大会计师事务所审计、分析师跟踪少的公司样本中更显著。以上结论说明媒体关注是除行政治理外,另外一种督促上市公司支付现金股利的重要机制。本文除了具有丰富媒体治理和股利政策两方面理论研究的贡献外,对监管机构规范资本市场股利支付行为和保护投资者权益具有重要政策启示。     

The impact of the bird flu on public willingness to pay for the protection of migratory birds

In this paper, we present the results of a unique time series analysis of contingent values and models for migratory bird protection based on an identical contingent valuation (CV) survey carried out over a three year time period since the first bird flu outbreak in 2003. Although there exists no scientific evidence for a direct relationship, migratory birds are believed to play an important role in spreading the bird flu virus worldwide. The time series analysis allows us to test the temporal stability of stated preferences for migratory bird protection and at the same time examine indirectly the possible impact of increased media attention and public awareness levels regarding the bird flu. We test the impact of the bird flu on public willingness to pay (WTP) for migratory bird protection in the final 2005 survey whilst accounting for procedural variance introduced by sequencing and question ordering-effects, but we are unable to demonstrate a direct negative relationship. A novelty of the study presented here is that respondents in the CV surveys are given the opportunity to pay an annual money amount or a one-time-off lump-sum. Annual WTP values appear to be significantly higher than one-time-off WTP values, suggesting a negative implicit discount rate. Self-selection bias is an important reason for the observed differences. We find that respondents who agree to pay annually differ significantly from respondents who wish to pay a lump-sum in terms of their underlying preferences and motivations towards migratory bird protection.     

A NEW APPROACH TO ASSET INTEGRATION: METHODOLOGY AND MYSTERY

Abstract. This paper develops a new methodology to test financial market integration. Our technique is based on an intertemporal asset‐pricing model, and relies on estimating and comparing expected discount rates across asset markets. Expected discount rates are allowed to vary freely over time, constrained only by the fact that they are equal across assets. Assets are allowed to have very general risk characteristics, and are constrained only by a linear factor model of covariances with the discount rate over short time periods. We provide a variety of domestic and international empirical illustrations of our technique, and find surprisingly little evidence of integration.     

The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast

Making decisions about optimal investments in green infrastructure necessitates setting social discount rates. This paper suggests a practical way for determining the discount rate for projects or programmes in which one of the options is to maintain or restore land to an undeveloped state. We propose an “equivalency principle” to derive a simple rule that sets the discount rate. The rule is based on the premise that the long term value of a piece of undeveloped land ought to be at least the same as the value of an identical piece of land in the vicinity to which permission has been granted for development. We illustrate this principle with various case studies and we apply it to a contentious investment project in the Basque Country associated with the regeneration of a large scale harbour that involves reclaiming undeveloped land that has important ecological values, including for the conservation of a marine ecosystem.     

Discrete Choice Experiments in Developing Countries: Willingness to Pay Versus Willingness to Work

A concern when conducting stated preference valuation studies in rural developing or very low income contexts is the use of monetary willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. In circumstances where cash incomes are extremely low, a significant proportion of the population are not engaged in waged labour and the exchange of goods or services is augmented through barter or work exchange, the role of money is likely to be different from that within an urban developed setting. As such, ability to pay using money may be impaired and downwardly biased when compared with other mediums of exchange. In recognition of this several studies have used hypothetical labour contributions as payment vehicles and a common finding is that households are more often willing to contribute labour than they are money. In this paper we present the results of a split sample DCE using money and labour contributions as payment vehicles for improved drinking water quality in Kandal Province, Cambodia. We find little differences between the payment vehicles in terms of attribute non-attendance, marginal utilities of attributes or derived welfare values. We argue that this provides support for the use of WTP in rural developing areas where there are functioning labour markets.     

消费者对地理标志农产品支付意愿的实证分析——以盐池滩羊为例

以农产品主销区消费者调查问卷为依据,分析了影响因素对消费者地理标志农产品支付意愿的实际影响。结果表明:消费者对农产品地理标志了解和认知程度仍处初级阶段;受教育程度正向影响购买意愿,反向影响溢价支付意愿;对农产品注册为地理标志了解程度、对农产品口感味道评价正向影响购买意愿和支付意愿;非穆斯林、已婚、羊肉占肉类消费比重正向影响购买意愿,而家庭收入水平、无羊肉忌口、无超市购物去处等则正向影响溢价支付意愿;但性别、年龄、农产品品牌了解程度、地理标志了解程度等均未显著影响消费者支付意愿。     

Convex Time Budgets and Individual Discount Rates in the Long Run

The purpose of this study is to use experimental data to estimate individual discount rates and test for hyperbolic discounting over a long time horizon. To do this, we employ the convex time budget experimental approach with cash payments over a 20 year time horizon. To date, there are few experimental studies that explore discount rates beyond a 1 year time horizon. Previous experimental studies that focus on short time horizons find high discount rates, which may not be applicable to decisions that affect outcomes in the distant future. Our findings are quite similar to the average rate of 4.9% found by Grijalva et al. (Environ Resour Econ 59:39–63, 2014), who similarly use a 20 year time horizon, but use the multiple price list elicitation method along with payment via government savings bonds. We find annual discounts rates in the range of 1.9–5.5%, depending on the specific model used. We also find evidence for declining discount rates, and that this hyperbolic pattern of behavior is related to the confidence subjects have in receiving distant-future payments.     

Are There Income Effects on Global Willingness to Pay for Biodiversity Conservation?

This paper is concerned with the empirical relationship between biodiversity conservation values and income. We use random effects panel models to examine the effects of income, and then GDP per capita, on willingness to pay for habitat and biodiversity conservation. In a meta-analysis, 145 Willingness To Pay estimates for biodiversity conservation where existence value plays a major role were collected from 46 contingent valuation studies across six continents. Other effects included in the meta-analysis were the study year; habitat type; continent; scope as presented to respondents; whether WTP bids were for preventing a deterioration or gaining an improvement in conservation, whether a specific species or specific habitat was protected; whether the questionnaire used a dichotomous choice or an open-ended format; distribution format; and the choice of payment vehicle. GDP per capita seemed to perform as well as an explanatory variable as respondent’s mean stated income, indicating that it is wealth in society as a whole which determines variations in WTP. Even if large variation, our main conclusion is, that the demand for biodiversity conservation rises with a nation’s wealth, but the income elasticity of willingness to pay is less than one.     

Ranking investment projects

Summary. This paper describes conditions under which one investment project dominates a second project in terms of net present value, irrespective of the choice of the discount rate. The resulting partial ordering of projects has certain similarities to stochastic dominance. However, the structure of the net present value function leads to characterizations that are quite specific to this context. Our theorems use Bernstein's (1915) innovative results on the representation and approximation of polynomials, as well as other general results from the theory of equations, to characterize the partial ordering. We also show how the ranking is altered when the range of discount rates is limited or the rate varies period by period. Received: January 5, 2002; revised version: October 29, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Robert Driskill, Andrea Maneschi, Roy Radner, and participants of seminars at NYU, Notre Dame, Purdue, and Washington University for helpful comments. The present version of the paper has benefited from comments by a referee and the editor. Foster is grateful for support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation through its network on Inequality and Poverty in Broader Perspective. Correspondence to: T. Mitra     

WILLINGNESS‐TO‐PAY FOR SPORTING SUCCESS OF FOOTBALL BUNDESLIGA TEAMS

This study shows that fans and people living in the region of 28 Football Bundesliga teams from all three divisions are willing to support their team financially. Survey respondents were asked for their willingness‐to‐pay to avoid a negative outcome (e.g., relegation) and to achieve a positive outcome (e.g., promotion). Fan bonds are applied as an alternative payment vehicle within the contingent valuation method. The results show that different factors affect the decision to support the team and the actual amount of willingness‐to‐pay—for attendees and nonattendees. Public goods are particularly relevant for reporting a positive willingness‐to‐pay. (JEL Z23, L83, H41)     

EQUIVALENT OPTION PRICE WITH SUPPLY UNCERTAINTY

This paper compares two ex ante measures of the benefits of a project with supply uncertainty: compensating option price, the willingness to pay for a project, and equivalent option price, the willingness to accept to forego a project. The paper shows that compensating option price does not generally rank three or more projects correctly, even when the projects only impose a change in a single good. Equivalent option price, like equivalent variation with certain outcomes, always ranks three or more projects correctly. This paper also presents a method to empirically estimate equivalent option price using estimates of the benefits of certain changes. This approach is practically important so that the same study results can be used to estimate equivalent option price even as new projects are developed or as changes occur in the scientific information regarding the probabilities of various project outcomes. An application of the empirical method estimates the benefits of a policy to improve air and water quality when there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the policy.     

Trading Taxes vs. Paying Taxes to Value and Finance Public Environmental Goods

The potential sensitivity of environmentalresource valuation to payment vehicles is ofinterest to researchers and decision-makersinvolved in estimating and applying thesenumbers. A conceptual model is developed whichprovides insight into how the different paymentvehicles of a special tax and a taxreallocation affects the willingness to pay(WTP) for environmental goods. Hypothesistesting using contingent valuation datasuggests WTP with a tax reallocation is higherthan WTP with a special tax for ground waterquality protection in Georgia and Maine, USA.Technical measurement and welfare analysisimplications and limitations of valuing andfinancing public environmental goods using taxrealloactions are discussed.     

The Impact of Direct Cash Payments on Whole Blood Supply

This paper investigates the impact of monetary incentives on whole blood donations. We take advantage of a quasi‐natural experiment in Germany, in which one blood donation site changes its payment scheme from remunerated to non‐remunerated. All other donation sites maintain their payment schemes. We show that donation volumes drop significantly after the pay drop and do not recuperate. At the same time, donation volumes increase at other paid donation sites, which is partly due to donor migration to these sites. We do not find any impact of the changed payment scheme on blood quality. Our results offer additional insight into the complex question whether it is efficient to ensure blood supply by paying donors a direct monetary compensation.