Industrial strategy and technological change: Theory versus reality

What are the determinants of appropriate industrial strategy under different circumstances? There is no universally accepted answer. This paper deals with two new elements in the contemporary debate, which centers around the efficacy of the neoclassically-prescribed neutral policy regime. One element is research demonstrating that market forces alone are not responsible for the purported ‘market successes’ of the East Asian NICs. With Korea as the case in point, this research is reviewed to draw some lessons about successful industrial strategy. The other element is an evolving conceptualization that puts technological change at the heart of industrialization. The underlying firm-level case-study research is surveyed and implications are derived regarding the nature as well as the extent of market failures affecting industrialization. It is argued throughout that industrial strategy should be seen as a matter of managing technological change to achieve dynamically efficient industrialization.     

Carbon sequestration and permit trading on the competitive fringe

This paper makes two contributions to the carbon-sequestration policy literature. First and foremost, we develop a theoretical framework in which sequestration and permit-trading markets are analyzed jointly in the context of a competitive fringe model. Our framework formalizes the linkage between regulatory policy changes (as they manifest themselves in the permit market) and subsequent equilibrium allocations in the sequestration market. Second, we perform a numerical analysis demonstrating the role market structure, or market power, might play in the determination of the equilibrium sequestration allocation and carbon price. Both our analytical and numerical results demonstrate the importance of incorporating into empirical supply-side models demand-side information that is reflective of an underlying market structure.     

Diffusion of Kyoto's clean development mechanism

To date, developed countries can only tap mitigation opportunities in developing countries by investing in projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Yet CDM investments have so far failed to reach all of the high-potential sectors identified in IPCC reports. This raises doubts about whether the CDM will be able to generate an adequate supply of credits from the limited areas where it has proved successful. Our paper examines the current trajectory of potential mitigation entering the CDM pipeline and projects it forward under the assumption that the diffusion of the CDM will follow a path similar to other kinds of innovations. Projections are then compared to pre-CDM predictions of the mechanism's potential market size used to assess Kyoto's cost, in order to discern whether limits on the types of project entering the pipeline will also limit the eventual supply of certified emission reductions (CERs). The main finding of the paper is that the mechanism is on track to deliver an average annual flow of roughly 700 million CERs by the close of 2012 and nearly to 1100 million tons by 2020. Parameter tests suggest that currently identified CDM investments will exceed early model predictions of the potential market for CDM projects.     

The effect of demand-driven structural transformations on growth and technological change

The paper analyses the effect of the dynamics of consumption preferences on the dynamics of macro–economic growth. We endogenously derive micro–dynamics of consumption behavior as a result of the increase in the number of income classes. The different degrees of inertia in the adjustment of consumption levels to income changes affect firm selection and the dynamics of market structure, which is ultimately responsible for different regimes of macro–economic growth. We find, first, that higher heterogeneity in consumption preferences amplifies and accelerates market dynamics, leading to a swift shift from a Malthusian to a Kaldorian growth pattern. Second, consumption smoothing mainly affects the timing of such a take–off. Inertia in consumption delays the occurrence of a Kaldorian engine for growth.     

The European Union's potential for strategic emissions trading through permit sales contracts

Strategic market behavior by permit sellers will harm the European Union (EU) as it is expected to become a large net buyer of permits in a follow-up agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper, we explore how the EU could benefit from making permit trade agreements with non-EU countries. These trade agreements involve permit sales requirement, complemented by a financial transfer from the EU to the other contract party. Such agreements would enable the EU to act strategically in the permit market on behalf of its member states, although each member state is assumed to behave as a price taker in the permit market. Using a stylized numerical simulation model, we show that an appropriately designed permit trade agreement between the EU and China could significantly cut the EU's total compliance cost. This result is robust for a wide range of parameterizations of the simulation model.     

Research on regional capability constructive models of clean development mechanism

Global climate change has been identified as the first of the top ten environmental problems in the world. As climate change will have serious effects on the social and economic development and everyday, living of people in the world, many of the countries and governments are taking untiring efforts to combat climate change. As one of the important mechanisms of reducing greenhouse gas （GHG） emissions in the Kyoto Protocol, Clean Development Mechanism （CDM） has not only provided chance for developed countries to fulfill greenhouse emission reduction obligations, but also provided an opportunity for developing countries to combat climate change under the sustainable development frame. The dual objectives of developed countries＇ GHG emissions＇ reduction obligation achievement and developing cotmtries＇sustainable development will be achieved under the CDM. As a country with responsibility; China has been positively developing CDM projects and promoting energy saving and emissions reduction during the three yeors after the Kyoto Protocol came into force, and CDM projects development has always been in the front tank in the world. However; as the vast clime within China, notable differences occur in different regions. In order to promote the CDM development in China, it is necessa~T to have regional CDM capability construction in accordance with the practicality in different regions. Based on the Slat Analysis of developed CDM projects and current CDM development status in China, problems in the CDM development of China, including the inefficiency in small and medium-sized CDM Projects＇ development, over centralization of CDM development scope and especially the differentiated provincial CDM projects developing capability are pointed out in the paper： What＇s more, reasons for the problems are analyzed from fire leading.factors, including policy orient, information asymmetry and weak CDM capability, In order to promote CDM projects development in China, a new CDM capability, construction model is put forward in the paper.     

The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners

Currency depreciation is said to worsen the trade balance before improving it, hence the J-curve phenomenon. Since introduction of cointegration and error-correction modelling, researchers have tried to distinguish the short-run effects of currency depreciation from its long-run effects. A few studies that have investigated the experience of Malaysia, have relied upon aggregate trade data and have found no strong support for a significant relation between the real value of the ringgit and the Malaysian trade balance. In this article, we disaggregate the data by country and consider Malaysia's bilateral trade balance with her 14 largest trading partners. Using bound testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, we provide some support for the J-curve hypothesis.     

The relationship between top trading cycles mechanism and top trading cycles and chains mechanism

In this paper, we show that there is a relationship between two important matching mechanisms: the Top Trading Cycles mechanism (TTC mechanism proposed by Abdulkadiroglu and Sonmez, 1999) and the Top Trading Cycles and Chains mechanism (TTCC mechanism proposed by Roth, Sonmez, and Unver, 2004). Our main result is that when a specific chain selection rule proposed by Roth et al. is used, these two mechanisms are equivalent. While the equivalence is relevant for one specific case of the TTCC mechanism, it is a particularly interesting case since it is the only version identified by Roth et al. to be both Pareto-efficient and strategy-proof.     

On the mechanism of international technology diffusion for energy technological progress

As a needed methodological complement to the existing large-scale complex policy modelling for energy technology diffusion, this paper contributes to an analytical exposition of the fundamental mechanism of international technology diffusion (ITD) for energy technological progress. We offer two different and complementary perspectives to explore the dynamics of energy technology diffusion and progress. We first develop a Solow-type efficiency-improving model of energy technological progress which is described by improvements in primary energy-augmenting efficiency. We further provide a Romer-type variety-expanding model of energy technological progress which is represented by the expansion of differentiated varieties of primary energy technology blueprints. Analysis based on two different models reaches consistent results: there are potential forces in the world economy – working through ITD – that pull individual countries to advance energy technology, ensuring a cross-country convergence in the growth rates of energy technology in the balanced growth path. While ITD plays a role in a cross-country convergence in technological growth rates, cross-country differences in the efficiency of undertaking indigenous research and the capacity of absorbing foreign technology spillovers would lead to a cross-country divergence in the absolute levels of energy technology.     

The effect of derivative trading on the underlying markets: Evidence from Canadian instalment receipts trading

We examine the impact of instalment receipts (IRs) trading on the underlying stocks' volatility. IRs are a derivative security that evidences the purchase of an underlying security on an instalment basis. IRs have been commonly used to facilitate large secondary stock offerings in Canada and other commonwealth countries. We find that while the trading of IRs generally increases the underlying stocks' trading volume, it generally does not have a significant effect on the underlying volatility or systematic risk. Therefore, the use of IRs in secondary offerings will not destabilize the underlying markets and thus will not adversely affect the welfare of the buyers and the remaining shareholders.     

The state of technological and social change: Impressions

As the long-wave theory has predicted, we are seeing a period of consolidation in which the pace of radical technological innovation seems exceeded by the pace of social change. Peter Drucker's dictum, that technology changes faster than society, appears now to have been reversed. The article offers research and anecdotal support for these assertions, linking them to specific trends and trend interactions, including patents and intellectual property litigation, new product development, and politics and revolution.     

Measuring intensity of technological change: The seismic approach

The abundance of typologies, within the economics of innovation, has resulted in the same name being used for different innovation types and the same innovation being classified under different typologies. The present research introduces the Scale of Innovation Intensity (SIIN) based on metataxonomy that subsumes other, less comprehensive taxonomies. The SIIN is similar to the seismic Mercalli's scale used to measure the intensity of earthquakes. The impact of technological change is measured by an indicator, called magnitude, based on the impact of technological innovations on the economic system. The theory is applied to some product and process innovations such as agricultural mechanization, aircraft technology, muffler catalytic, aluminum processing, etc. The results show that some innovations have a higher technological intensity and energy (economic impact) on well-being than others. Some concluding remarks are discussed in the final part of this research.     

Endogenous technological change: a note on stability

Summary. This paper demonstrates that the steady-state solution of the optimal-growth problem in Romer's (1990) model of endogenous technological change is globally saddle-point stable. Surprisingly, the proof of this result is trivial. Interest in the optimal growth path is justified by the fact that there is a (unique) combination of production and R&D subsidies by means of which the optimal growth path is attained as a market equilibrium. Received: October 6, 1998; revised version: April 19, 1999     

The dynamic of innovation networks: a switching model on technological change

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model where heterogeneous firms compare and modify their innovation strategies, so generating an evolving network structure. By implementing dynamic behavioral switching via a fitness mechanism based on agents’ performance, companies can endogenously modify their tactics for technological change and switch among three groups: stand-alone innovators, collaborative innovators and imitators. On the one hand, we study the properties of the emerging networks and we show that they reproduce the stylized facts of innovation networks. Moreover, we focus the analysis on the impact of these three innovation categories on the macro economic aggregate, finding that collaborative companies are those having the highest positive impact on the economic system. On the other hand, we use the model to study the effect of different economic innovation policies in increasing macroeconomic performance.     

The bilateral J‐curve: Canada versus her 20 trading partners

There is a common belief that currency depreciation worsens the trade balance in the short run and improves it in the long run resulting in the so called J‐curve phenomenon. Early studies employed aggregate data and provided mixed results. Recent studies, however, have employed disaggregated data to remove any aggregation bias from their analysis. In this article we consider the Canadian experience and test the phenomenon between Canada and her 20 major trading partners. Using quarterly data and the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error‐correction modelling we were able to provide support for the J‐curve in 11 out of 20 cases.     

清洁发展机制在黑龙江省的应用前景及对策建议

清洁发展机制是<京都议定书>框架下三个灵活的机制之一,也是唯一与发展中国家密切相关的机制,是促进碳收入和碳技术向发展中国家转移的主要手段.通过对CDM机制在黑龙江省的应用前景分析,进而从产业政策、技术支持、项目储备和组织保障等方面提出加快黑龙江省CDM项目建设的对策建议.     

Recent approaches to development,and population growth and technological change

"This paper will attempt to study the question of the relationship between population growth and technological change in recent approaches to development." The focus is on the relative merits of the private sector approach to development over the public sector approach. The geographical focus is on developing countries.     

The impact of market trading mechanism on A-H share price premium

After the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy was launched, markets become integrated, while A-H premium rises. This phenomenon is contrary to the existing market segmentation hypotheses. We provide a supplementary explanation for the A-H share price premium based on stock market trading mechanism. As margin trading and securities lending mechanism in Chinese mainland stock market is still immature and incomplete, limited arbitrage and asymmetric margin buying power amplifies the A-H premium even after markets are integrated. Our findings complement the financial microstructure researches on how trading mechanism may influence the dynamic price discovery process, especially those related to issues of short constraints and levered investing.