Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework

In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change — the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands – both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use – are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3710 km³ year^− 1 in 2005 to 6195–8690 km³ year^− 1 in 2050, and to 4869–12,693 km³ year^− 1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in meeting future water demands, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.     

Game theory and climate diplomacy

Starting with the “New Periodic Table” (NPT) of 2 × 2 order games introduced by Robinson and Goforth (2005), we provide an exhaustive treatment of the possible game-theoretic characterizations of climate negotiations between two players (e.g., Great Powers or coalitions of states). Of the 144 distinct 2 × 2 games in which the players have strict ordinally ranked utilities, 25 are potentially relevant to climate problem. The negotiations may be characterized as a No-Conflict Game, Prisoner's Dilemma, Coordination Game, Chicken, Type Game, or Cycle, depending on the payoff matrix. Which game corresponds to the actual state of the world depends both on the severity of risks associated with climate change and the perceptions of the governments engaged in the negotiations. Nash equilibrium or Maxi-min equilibrium (or neither) may be the outcome. Achieving universal abatement of greenhouse gas emissions may require side payments or enforcement mechanisms outside the game framework, but we show how the negotiations themselves may offer opportunities to select between Nash equilibria or alter the payoff rankings and strategic choices of the players. In particular, scientific information pointing to the severity of the risks of climate change suggests characterization of the negotiations as a Coordination Game rather than a Prisoner's Dilemma.     

An application of Lotka–Volterra model to Taiwan's transition from 200 mm to 300 mm silicon wafers

In this paper, we explore the innovation growth of 200 mm and 300 mm silicon wafers from Taiwan. Using the historic data, we simulate the growth of the area of 200 mm and 300 mm silicon wafers manufactured in Taiwan by the competitive Lotka–Volterra model. The parameters in the Lotka–Volterra model estimated with the realistic data are obtained numerically. The dynamic growth of competitive relationship between 200 mm silicon wafers and 300 mm silicon wafers is then analyzed. To prove the performance of the model, we further compare the famous Bass model and the Lotka–Volterra model. We also perform the equilibrium analysis to determine the long-term stability state in the simulation trajectory. Our research exhibits that 200 mm silicon wafers and 300 mm silicon wafers show a prey–predator relationship under the assumption of natural competition in the global semiconductor market. From a managerial perspective, the coefficients in the Lotka–Volterra model of exponential growth, self-interaction and cross-interaction represent the strength of product attractiveness, niche capacity and interaction for two competition products. We also find that there exists a stable equilibrium state for 200 mm silicon wafers and 300 mm silicon wafers. The prey 200 mm generation does not disappear completely; it finally settles to a constant market alongside the predator 300 mm generation.     

Conscientious vs. ambivalent consumers: Do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour?

Energy availability and climate change are interrelated concerns with economic components. They need to be addressed by policy makers and they require changes in energy consumption. This study examines whether concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour, policy perceptions, and beliefs about future energy consumption. This question is investigated by analysing data from the Eurobarometer 75.4, a comprehensive survey of citizens from all countries of the European Union that was conducted in June 2011 (n = 26,840). The regression results show that people concerned about climate change were significantly more likely to take action to mitigate climate change, and to be more favourably disposed towards energy policies and future changes in energy consumption, than people who were not concerned about climate change. On the other hand, people who were concerned about energy availability undertook fewer actions and neither supported energy policies nor believed in future changes in energy consumption. This surprising finding raises questions regarding the adequate communication of energy availability and policies to the public in the European Union.     

Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden

Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of ? 0.9–3 billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3 billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4–5 billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.     

Property rights,mobile capital,and comparative advantage

Recent papers show that imperfect property rights to a natural resource – a sector-specific factor–can be a source of comparative advantage. In these models, weaker property rights attract labor–the only mobile factor – to the resource sector, increasing the country's comparative advantage for that sector. If capital in addition to labor is mobile, and if the benefits of capital are non-excludable or if the degree of property rights is endogenous, a deterioration of property rights has ambiguous effects on comparative advantage and on the equilibrium wage/rental ratio.     

Measuring technological trends: A comparison between U.S. and U.S.S.R./Russian jet fighter aircraft

Measuring and forecasting technological change is a crucial issue from various points of view. This is particularly important in the case of weapon systems as this would enable technological performance and operational capabilities to be assessed in relation to potential threats. This paper measures and compares technological trends in U.S. and Soviet Union/Russian jet fighter aircraft by estimating the relationship between the first flight date and a set of performance and technical characteristics of these aircraft. From the point of view of technological advantage, we find that U.S. jet fighters were, on average, approximately 2 years ahead of the former Soviet Union/Russian jet fighters during the entire jet fighter era. Nevertheless, the technological advantage has swung from one side to the other during specific periods as particular models have been introduced. Finally, the development of 5th-generation jet fighters, in particular the development of the F-22 Raptor, has placed American technology about 20 years ahead of Russian technology, a difference that has never occurred before. This finding casts doubt on the ability of Russia, as the inheritor of the former Soviet Union aircraft industry, to match American technological progress in jet fighter aircraft.     

Observing regional divergence of Chinese nanotechnology centers

While China has emerged as one of the world's leading technological innovators, past studies have uncovered that technology centers have been overwhelmingly concentrated in Beijing and Shanghai. We take a step further to investigate whether this geographic concentration has persisted over time with nanotechnology-related patents. We apply the spatial analysis techniques and employ Gini's coefficient and global Moran's I. We additionally test the spatial patterns at four scales: the municipality, the county, the intra-metropolitan, and the distance-based.We find that while Beijing and Shanghai have remained the two dominant nanotechnology clusters, the Shanghai region, together with Jiangsu and Zhejiang, surpassed the traditionally productive Beijing–Tianjin region by 2007. We did not identify spatial autocorrelation at the province level, but at the county level, and at the scale between 20 km and 75 km. The intra-metropolitan analysis in Beijing and Shanghai further confirmed that the geographic concentration of nanotechnology is small, around 20 km. These results support the regional divergence theory and a small scale of technology diffusion, as well as the possibility of continually increasing inequality in China and its technology development.     

Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change

This paper analyzes the macro-economic costs and effects on consumption and energy demand of limiting the global average atmospheric temperature increase to 2 °C. We use a macro-economic model in which there are two competing energy technologies (carbon and non-carbon, respectively), technological change is represented endogenously, and energy is aggregated through a CES function implying positive demand for the relatively expensive non-carbon technology. Technological change is represented through a learning curve describing decreasing energy production costs as a function of cumulative experience. We find that energy savings constitutes an important mechanism for decreasing abatement costs in the short- and medium-term, while the acquisition of additional learning experience substantially decreases abatement costs in the longer-term.     

World natural gas endowment as a bridge towards zero carbon emissions

We use a global energy market (GEM) model to show that natural gas has the potential to help stabilize global carbon emissions in a span of about 50–100 years and pave the way towards low and zero carbon energy.The GEM provides a close fit of the global energy mix between 1850 and 2005. It also matches historical carbon and CO₂ emissions generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. The model is used then to forecast the future energy mix, as well as the carbon and CO₂ emissions, up to the year 2150.Historical data show relative decarbonization and an increase in the amount of hydrogen burned as a percent of fossil fuel use between 1850 and 1970. The GEM indicates that with a larger contribution of natural gas to the future energy market, the burned hydrogen percentage will increase. This decarbonization will help to advance economic and environmental sustainability.     

Tiebout equilibria in local public good economies with spillovers

This paper analyzes the effects of spillovers on the equilibrium population distribution across jurisdictions in a local public good economy with free mobility. Spillovers are parametrized by a matrix [α_ij] where α_ij ∈ [0, 1]. When spillovers are symmetric and close to 0 or 1 (pure local public goods and pure public goods), all equilibrium jurisdiction structures are symmetric. However, any population distribution can be sustained in equilibrium for some value of the spillover parameter α. In the class of utility functions with additive externalities, we identify the unique family of utility functions for which equilibria are symmetric except for an isolated value of α. This is a class of utility functions which are linear in the public good and a power function of the private good, u(c, γ) = − A(1 − c)^β + γ. With this specification of utility, we show that an increase in α results in a more fragmented equilibrium population distribution, and that when spillovers are asymmetric and large, a jurisdiction which is more centrally located (i.e. benefits more from the public goods provided in other jurisdictions) has a larger population in equilibrium.     

Growth effects of carbon policies: Applying a fully dynamic CGE model with heterogeneous capital

The paper develops a new type of computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in which growth is fully endogenous, based on the increasing specialization of sector-specific capital varieties. The model is used to simulate the effects of carbon policies on consumption, welfare, and sectoral development in the long run. The benchmark scenario is calculated based on endogenous sector-specific gains from specialization, which carry over to the simulations of a carbon policy following the 2 °C target. Applying the model to the Swiss economy, we find that carbon policy leads to growth rates of knowledge intensive sectors that are higher than in the benchmark and that all the non-energy sectors show positive growth rates. Compared to a state in which climate change has no negative effect, consumption in 2050 is reduced by 4.5% and entails a moderate but not negligible welfare loss.     

Cyclical behavior of crude oil markets and economic recessions in the period 1986–2010

For at least one century, crude oil has been one of the most important commodities for the worldwide economic activity. Important technological innovations, including chemical transformation processes and transportation systems, have been based on the availability or not of crude oil. In this way, a close understanding of the crude oil market dynamics should provide insights in important aspects related to potential directions of technological change for both improving crude oil transformation efficiency and substitution by alternative energy sources. This paper studies the dynamics of the crude oil price for the period from 1986 to 2010. To this end, the entropy time-asymmetry is computed along the price trajectory. Empirical results indicated the presence of a non-regular cyclical behavior with a dominant period of about 4.5 years. Some evidences pointing toward a comovement of entropy time-asymmetry peaks with major US economic recessions are found, suggesting a tight relationship between macroeconomy and crude oil prices. The results are discussed in terms of the major economic events that occurred in the upward and downward cycle periods and potential implications for the design of energy policies.     

REDD+and community-controlled forests in low-income countries: Any hope for a linkage?

Deforestation and forest degradation are estimated to account for between 12% and 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and in the 1990s (largely in the developing world) released about 5.8 Gt per year, which was bigger than all forms of transport combined. The idea behind REDD + is that payments for sequestering carbon can tip the economic balance away from loss of forests and in the process yield climate benefits. Recent analysis has suggested that developing country carbon sequestration can effectively compete with other climate investments as part of a cost effective climate policy.This paper focuses on opportunities and complications associated with bringing community-controlled forests into REDD +. About 25% of developing country forests are community controlled and therefore it is difficult to envision a successful REDD + without coming to terms with community controlled forests. It is widely agreed that REDD + offers opportunities to bring value to developing country forests, but there are also concerns driven by worries related to insecure and poorly defined community forest tenure, informed by often long histories of government unwillingness to meaningfully devolve to communities. Further, communities are complicated systems and it is therefore also of concern that REDD + could destabilize existing well-functioning community forestry systems.     

Wind tunnel simulation and evaluation of soil conservation function of alpine grassland in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Aiming at studying soil conservation function of alpine grassland in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, this paper simulated soil erosion changes under different degrees of human disturbance in a wind tunnel laboratory. Three types of grasslands were selected, which include alpine meadow (QH-1), alpine steppe meadow (QH-2) and alpine steppe (QH-3), and the soil erosion rate was taken as the index to measure soil conservation function. The experimental results show that the soil erosion rates of three grassland samples increase with wind velocity under different treatments but the increment of erosion rate varied greatly. Under original status, soil erosion rates are in turn QH-1 < QH-2 < QH-3, which indicates that the soil conservation services are QH-1 > QH-2 > QH-3. When the aboveground vegetation was cut, the soil erosion rate change of QH-1 is the same as that of QH-3 and compared with the original status both of them changed a little. And when the root system was destroyed the erosion rates range in turn as QH-1 < QH-2 < QH-3. So the data suggest that soil conservation service for the three types of grasslands should be QH-1 > QH-2 > QH-3. The economic values of soil conservation were estimated, which include the values of organic carbon fixation, nutrient retention and reducing soil disuse.     

Balance sheet in the REDD +: Are global estimates measuring the wrong costs?

This article challenges some of the assumptions underpinning the UN programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD +) in developing countries. Firstly, it argues that the cost-effectiveness of REDD + may have been exaggerated as current estimates ignore some cost categories as well as the evolution of drivers. Whilst REDD + remains a ‘low-hanging fruit’ for climate mitigation, if all costs were included estimates would be at the high end of the currently accepted range. Secondly, the article highlights that REDD + will be affected by a large funding gap at least until the entry into force of a new climate protocol in 2020. This gap is due as much to the poor status of public finances in donor countries as to the languishing state of carbon markets, and it calls for a revision of the assumptions regarding the design of the programme. Finally, it is advocated that, in order to contribute to the development of the programme, economic research on REDD + should consider different policy options, assessing their efficiency and identifying measures that increase their cost-effectiveness.     

Catch-up in ICT standards: Policy,implementation and standards-setting in South Korea

Korea is home to the world-first introductions of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) and subsequent third generation (3 G) mobile technologies. In addition to increased contributions to global ICT standards, Korean players gained prominence recently by proposing standards for homegrown systems. This paper takes stock of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) policy design, implementations of projects and standards-settings during the Korean catch-up in ICT sectors and attempts at highlighting their commonalities during three different phases: Implementation, Participation, and Definition of standards. The co-evolution of two types of policies and implementations – ‘generic’ and ‘targeted’³ – affect the rate, direction and processes of catch-up. The patterns of raising standards-setting capabilities are generally in line with traditional technological catch-up. However, the evidence implies latecomers must address a few issues related to standards in order to sustain their rates of learning and continued growth in the ICT industry, namely: 1) Clarity of focus on over-arching industry and standards policy and their timely integration, 2) managing the balance between targeted and generic projects to gain both technological and non-technological capabilities for standards-settings, especially implementation, and finally 3) embedding necessary institutional flexibility within a national system catering to multiple standards-setting strategies and processes.     

The amenity value of the climate: the household production function approach

A basic assumption of the hedonic technique is that there are no barriers to mobility that prevent prices changing to reflect the net benefits of a given location. But climate variables are undeviating over relatively large distances and the absence of a common language coupled with the existence of political boundaries may prevent the net advantages associated with a particular region from being eliminated. Apart from in a handful of countries, methods alternative to the hedonic approach may therefore be required to estimate the amenity value of climate. Adopting the household production function approach this paper undertakes a systematic examination of the role played by climate in determining consumption patters using data from 88 different countries. Given certain assumptions the paper then proceeds to calculate the constant utility change in the cost of living for a 2.5 °C increase in globally averaged mean temperature. It is determined that high latitude countries benefit from limited climate change whereas low latitude countries suffer significant losses.     

The corporation as a tax shelter: Evidence from recent Israeli tax changes

Shifting of income between the corporate and the personal income tax bases in response to tax incentives is the premise of the literature on taxation and organizational form. Empirical evidence of income shifting is, however, merely circumstantial. Using a unique panel of high-frequency VAT data from Israel, we trace the footprints of income shifting through incorporation by high-income individuals who convert their labor income into less-taxed dividends. A rise in the personal income tax rates resulted in more than 4500 companies–a 5% addition to the corporate sector–being registered in the 12 months following the tax change, mainly by self-employed professionals in the industries of business activities and health services; behavioral response to taxation was found only in the top percentile of the income distribution.     

Using patent analysis to establish technological position: Two different strategic approaches

Discussions on business strategy formation in the past 50 years can be separated into two categories: the inside-out and the outside-in approach. Technology is a critical factor when manager formulate their business strategy, and patents have served as an important indicator of technology. A patent portfolio can be used to understand the capabilities of a firm, as an inside resource pattern; and the patent citation of firms can be used to find the relationship of a firm, as an outside dependency. This study uses patent information to establish an effective model for the technological position of business methods. The 5 by 6 matrix was generated and four situations between firms were induced. Researchers and managers can use that matrix and situations to recognize the real competitors or cooperators, and formulate the technological strategies which include competition, cooperation, or complementary cooperation.