Market-induced information disclosures: An experimental markets investigation

Abstract. This paper presents the results of 16 laboratory markets designed to test the theoretical assertion that, when disclosures are credible, managers/sellers will fully disclose private information to potential investors/buyers. Sellers are predicted to disclose all information so as not to be classified as having the worst possible information. This experiment manipulated two treatments: the number of disclosure options available to the seller and the buyers' knowledge of those disclosure options. The results show that, after repeated dealings between sellers and buyers, the sellers moved toward full disclosure. Buyers adjusted their bidding strategies in response to the seller's disclosure strategy in all markets except those that had both (1) a large number of disclosure options and (2) no knowledge by buyers of the disclosure options. These results may provide some perspective on the market-based results that show that investors do not react in a fully skeptical fashion with respect to managerial disclosures. Our results suggest that knowledge of the menu of disclosure options may increase the speed of markets adjusting to disclosures, particularly when the menu of disclosure options is large. Résumé. Les auteurs présentent les résultats de l'étude en laboratoire de seize marchés à partir desquels ils ont voulu vérifier l'affirmation théorique selon laquelle, lorsque l'information communiquée est vraisemblable, les gestionnaires-vendeurs présentent intégralement l'information privilégiée aux investissieurs-acheteurs potentiels. La décision des vendeurs de communiquer intégralement l'information serait motivée par leur désir de ne pas laisser supposer que l'information qu'ils possèdent est extrêmement négative. Dans le cadre de cette expérience, les auteurs ont abordé la question sous deux angles: le nombre d'options dont dispose le vendeur en matière de présentation de l'information et la connaissance de ces différentes options chez l'acheteur. Les résultats démontrent qu'après plusieurs séances de négociation entre vendeurs et acheteurs, les vendeurs consentaient à la présentation intégrale de l'information. Les acheteurs adaptaient leur stratégie d'offre en réponse à la stratégie de présentation de l'information du vendeur dans tous les marchés, à l'exception des marchés caractérisés à la fois par 1) un nombre important d'options de présentation de l'information et 2) aucune connaissance, chez les acheteurs, des options de présentation de l'information. Ces résultats pourraient ouvrir certaines perspectives en ce qui a trait aux résultats, fondés sur le marché, qui démontrent que les investisseurs ne mettent pas systématiquement en doute l'information présentée par les gestionnaires. Les résultats de l'étude laissent supposer que la connaissance des différentes options de présentation de l'information peut accélérer l'adaptation des marchés à la présentation de l'information, en particulier lorsque les options de présentation sont nombreuses.     

Residential rents and price rigidity: Micro structure and macro consequences

Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of the housing bubble in the 1980s? To address this question, we use a unique micro price dataset which we have compiled from individual listings (or transactions) in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. This dataset contains more than 700,000 listings of housing rents over the last 20 years. We start from the analysis of microeconomic rigidity and then investigate its implications for aggregate price dynamics, closely following the empirical strategy proposed by Caballero (Caballero and Engel, 2007). We find that 90% of the units in our dataset had no change in rents per year, indicating that rent stickiness is three times as high as in the United States. We also find that the probability of rent adjustment depends little on the deviation of the actual rent from its target level, suggesting that rent adjustments are not state-dependent but time-dependent. These two results indicate that both the intensive and extensive margins of rent adjustments are small, resulting in a slow response of the CPI for rent to aggregate shocks. We show that the CPI inflation rate would have been higher by 1% point during the bubble period, and lower by more than 1% point during the period following the burst of the bubble, if Japanese housing rents were as flexible as those in the United States.     

Interest rates, risk, and imperfect markets: puzzles and policies

Traditional theory emphasizes the key role that monetary policycan play through the manipulation of interest rates. But thereare several puzzles that cannot be reconciled with standardmodels. These include: the apparent constancy in interest ratesover extended periods, and changes at other times which appearunrelated to changes in technology and demography; the cyclicalpattern of movements in real interest rates; the impact of nominalnot real interest-rate changes on real variables; and the cyclicalpattern of movements in interest-rate spreads. This paper reachesbeyond the standard competitive equilibrium, perfect information,model of credit markets towards imperfect information models,particularly those that focus on the determinants of bank behaviour.Of the standard models, the money demand model is most deficientin understanding these puzzles. The loanable funds theory anda generalized version of real productivity theory can be reconciledwith imperfect information, and markets and the consequent creditand equity rationing regimes help to explain the puzzles. Specifically,banks may be insensitive to changes in monetary stance owingto risk aversion. There are strong policy implications; it isargued, for instance, that in East Asia raising interest ratesexacerbated economic decline and, rather than contributing toexchange-rate stability, may have induced capital flight asdefault risk increased, lowering risk-adjusted expected returns.     

Economic rents, the distribution of gains from mineral exploitation, and mineral development policy

The ‘once-and-for-all’ character of mineral exploitation introduces a unique element into the analysis of mining and the formulation of mineral policy, making issues of mineral ownership, questions of the interests of producers and consumers, and of the timing of exploitation particularly important. Developing countries account for a considerable, though by no means dominant, proportion of the world's mineral output, but the bulk of consumption is in high-income industrialized countries, and these countries also own the major corporations with mineral exploitation expertise. The high degree of horizontal and vertical integration among these corporations, and their participation in mineral processing, is a further complication. This paper argues that the resource rents inherent in mineral exploitation, and the other monopolistic rents associated with mining and processing, are essential to an understanding of past trends and to the formulation of future policies. The difficulties of measuring these rents adds to the problems of determining their equitable distribution among mineral-rich countries, mineral exploitation companies and mineral consumers. The proper timing of mineral exploitation in relation to national economic development is a further complication. It is thus perhaps not surprising that in high-income, no less than in developing countries, mineral exploitation and use policies are in disarray. The paper concludes with a discussion of the principal mineral development policy options emerging from the debate on the distribution of gains from mining.     

Lead markets, innovation differentials and growth

This article suggests that the specialization of countries in international trade is determined by the lead-lag market pattern of national markets. Many internationally successful innovations have been adopted first in one country while other countries initially either preferred other designs or an established product. A model for the international diffusion of innovations is presented in which nationally preferred innovation designs compete to become a globally dominant design. In this model, there are country-specific market attributes that increase the likelihood that the choice a country makes among alternative technologies is followed around the world. It is argued that technological knowledge gaps are not the origin of an international competitive advantage. Instead, a country gains a competitive advantage because a specific innovation design was adopted earlier than in any other country. This gives local firms a head start in producing, gathering marketing intelligence and securing the property rights of a globally successful innovation. In countries with lag market characteristics, domestic innovations are less likely to get adopted worldwide. Lag markets often switch from a domestic innovation design to a foreign innovation design, which increases imports. The lead-lag market explanation of trade specialization has implications for national policies. In this model domestic innovations do not always foster exports; idiosyncratic innovations induced by lag market contexts can hamper the export chances of local firms and in the end lead to an increase in imports. It is suggested that in order to increase exports, national policies have to distinguish between a domestic lead and lag market context in each industry. While in a lead market context, traditional policy instruments that enhance the rate of innovations are effective, in a lag market situation national follower strategies are more appropriate.     

China's Non-Performing Bank Loan Crisis: the role of economic rents

Various reasons have been put forward to explain the massive accumulation of non-performing loans in China. This paper applies the financial-restraint model as the analytical framework and argues that failure to create sufficient economic rents is the chief reason underlying the current dismal performance of banks. While the formal financial system is less important than the informal system—especially for financing the private enterprises that are playing a crucial role in economic growth—not addressing the non-performing loan crisis in the formal financial system will likely invite an economic slow-down.     

Male wages and female welfare: private markets, public goods, and intrahousehold inequality

We show how an apparently welfare improving phenomenon likean increase in the wage of the male member of a family can resultin a seemingly paradoxical result where the entire family isworse off. There is male and female specialization in activitiessuch that the female member is involved in a community levelpublic good. A rise in the male wage leads to adjustment ofhousehold time allocation with the male working more in themarket and less on household activities. In turn, the femaleworks more on household activities and less on the communitypublic good, failing to internalize the negative externalityimposed on other members of the community. Under quite generalconditions the implied negative effect can more than offsetthe positive effect of the male wage raise, and the entire familyis worse off. The theoretical results are consistent with empiricalfindings in the literature.     

The Assessment: labour markets and welfare

Rapid and radical changes in the labour markets of developedeconomies have had profound implications for the welfare andwell-being of their citizens. This Assessment argues that thereis still considerable divergence in labour-market processesand outcomes across countries. This is likely to remain thecase. Nevertheless, there is a range of common problems. Importantamong these are what is happening to the rights of people atwork and how they should be protected. Views about appropriaterights have altered in recent years. In the future, debate aboutthis is likely to be even more closely linked to debate aboutlabour-market flexibility. The Assessment goes on to discussa variety of distributional problems related to joblessnessand low pay, and evaluates policy interventions designed totackle them. Although there has been progress in terms of policyeffectiveness, interventions are fragile in helping people toescape from cycles of repeated misfortune and long-term disadvantage.     

The value of institutions for financial markets: evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets view election years negatively.     

Bribes,tribes and markets that fail: Rethinking the economics of underdevelopment

Conventional economic approaches to ‘underdevelopment’ tend to overlook some pernicious problems. Among them are corruption, ethnic discrimination and conflict, and markets that may work well enough for the privileged but not well enough for the poor. Fortunately, new work in economics promises practical insights into how to deal with these problems. It also suggests a rethinking of the causes of underdevelopment     

Stuart London's standard of living: re‐examining the Settlement of Tithes of 1638 for rents,income, and poverty

The Settlement of Tithes of 1638 can be tested for biases in its London rents. Even so, it proves to be a relatively good source for seventeenth‐century London, and for calculating associated median and mean rents, as well as a Gini coefficient of inequality for the distribution of resources. Through other evidence in the Settlement, rent/income ratios for London can be approximated, and from them estimates made of London's median income. Median rents and income also allow estimates of the percentage of Londoners in poverty. Though the last is inevitably disputable, the estimate holds up well to testing by other evidence.     

Trends in office rents in the City of London: 1867-1959

This paper details the construction and analysis of a dataset of office lettings, which is used to produce a rent index for the City of London spanning the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It advances prior research through application of a modern version of the repeat measures technique and in coverage of years where office rents have not been previously measured. Results show that there has been no real growth in rents over the period as a whole. However, there have been distinct phases of rental growth and decline that correspond with the wider economic fortunes of the City.     

Of markets,might and mullahs: a case for equity,pluralism and tolerance in development

This paper tries to confront the ‘puzzlement’ of the development profession regarding the ‘best’ alternative strategies aimed at increasing employment, reducing poverty and promoting equity at the same time as fostering economic growth — and the ‘advocacy’ role that should or should not be played by that profession. The author argues that the issue lies in achieving a workable ‘meaning’ of development and then moving on to the moral ‘questions’ of value judgments and to the specific ‘problems’ that can be dealt with by science and social science. He suggests that a possible meaning of development is ‘to create more options for more people’ — ‘to achieve that the greatest number of people have the greatest number of options.’ He discusses the need for improving ‘life chances’ and considers the development policies which may or may not assist in this process. He tries to tie together conceptually the ideas of power and social change, consensus and conflict. Also in this context, the roles of participation, organization and mobilization are explored, especially their impact on different political systems. The analysis concludes with a plea for social, cultural and political pluralism — and thus, a commitment to tolerance. The author argues that these goals should be addressed by the development community without the hesitation sometimes attached to ‘protection of expertise’.     

Housing markets and the economy: the assessment

Housing markets have multiple interactions with the rest ofthe economy and these are surveyed in this paper. The driversof house prices include income, the housing stock, demography,credit availability, interest rates, and lagged appreciation,the latter a potential mechanism for overshooting. There israther less agreement on the determinants of new construction,though planning constraints are widely seen as a major issueand one of the causes of the UK housing affordability problem.The paper argues that housing collateral and downpayment constraintsare the key to understanding the role of house-price variationsin explaining medium-term consumption fluctuations. Institutionalvariations between countries and over time account for majordifferences in linkages between house prices and economic activity.This illuminates debates about how monetary and other policyshould react to house-price variations. The paper also discussesthe role of housing markets in explaining regional migrationand location decisions, intergenerational inequality, and restrictingaccess of the less affluent to public goods, such as good schools,which are capitalized in local house prices.