我国长江、黄河流域地区棉花单产影响因素分析——基于河南省、江苏省、山东省的调查

棉花单产的增加是保证我国棉花供给的重要途径。基于我国河南、江苏、山东三省农户调查数据,本文构建了我国棉花单产影响因素模型。模型计算的结果表明,棉花的人工、化肥、农药、地膜、灌溉及其他项投入已经达到或超过最佳投入点,而技术培训与农业基础设施则远远落后于最佳投入点,这是现阶段提高我国棉花单产的潜力所在。最后,本文指出政府应加大对棉花主产区农业技术推广和农村基础设施投资力度,以提高我国棉花单产。     

基于DEA-Tobit模型的中国棉花生产技术效率分析

运用DEA-Tobit两阶段模型,对2002—2011年我国11个棉花主产省份的棉花生产效率及其影响因素进行了分析。研究结果显示:2002—2011年我国棉花生产技术效率先降后升再降;西北内陆棉区的棉花生产效率高于长江流域棉区和黄河流域棉区;财政支农资金投入和棉花种植比例对棉花生产技术效率有显著的正效应,文盲人口比重和受灾率对棉花生产技术效率存在不显著的负向影响。     

新疆棉区的划分及其发展潜力预测

本文根据新疆棉花生产条件和棉区发展条件,提出了新疆棉区发展的‘棉田优势度’,“棉田集中度”,“棉田潜力度”,“棉田规模度”,“棉田饱和度”,“棉田生产潜力”６个概念,设计了评价模型及其相应指标体系,进一步将全疆６０个产棉市县１００个产棉兵团农场分为超饱和制约型风险宜棉区,超饱和控制型风险宜棉区,未饱和潜力型最佳宜棉区,未饱和潜力型次佳宜棉区,饱和制约型不宜棉区和饱和制约型撤消棉区６个发展类型,并对     

棉花种植业对新疆农业经济发展及农民收入影响变动的量化分析

利用计量经济模型分析棉花种植业对新疆农业经济发展及农民收入的影响。研究结果表明:从长期看棉花种植面积的增加对农业经济发展的贡献是边际递减的,农民种植棉花的比较效益优势不断下降;不同的棉花主产区棉花产量的增加对棉农收入的影响作用差异较大。当前新疆在发展棉花种植业的过程中迫切需要地方政府给予一定的引导,因此,应建立完善科学的棉花市场监测体系,及时把握准确的市场信息,以期对今后的棉花生产及产业发展做出正确的指导。     

Competitiveness of Egyptian cotton exports in the international market

Cotton plays a vital role in the Egyptian economy by meeting domestic and export demands,contributing significantly to agriculture,industry,export earnings,and providing a cash income to roughly one million small farmers.This paper examines the competitiveness of Egyptian cotton exports（ECE） in the international market during the period 1990-2006.It mainly aims at investigating the trends in cotton exports over the studied period,analyzing the competitive position of Egyptian cotton by employing several economic and trade indices,and identifying the key factors that influence Egypt＇s cotton exports to the world.The results revealed that the total quantity of ECE has fallen from 196.8 thousand tons in 2003 to 87.2 thousand tons in 2006.It also shows a high degree of geographic concentration of ECE,into India,Italy,the Republic of Korea,and Japan.Together,these markets imported about 50%of ECE during 1990-2006.The competitive advantage of Egyptian cotton would appear dependent on quality not price.Japan,the Republic of Korea and Italy presented the most stable markets for ECE.Linear regression analysis suggests that a one percent increase in the Egypt-to-USA export price ratio leads to a decrease in ECE by about 27.8 thousand tons.Such analysis has also shown a positive and significant effect of the World Trade Organization on ECE.     

我国棉花期货价格的影响因素

棉花是除了粮食之外的第二大宗农产品,它对于促进农业的稳定发展和国家经济的安全具有极其重要的作用。然而,近年来棉花价格波动相当频繁,其波动原因也随之成为了社会的关注焦点。文章从供求因素、汇率因素、政策法规、投机因素等方面分析棉花期货价格波动的原因,从而提出相关对策建议。     

Are Women Less Capable in Managing Crops? Insights from Cotton Production in Northern China

Women’s performance in agriculture matters, as women are becoming increasingly involved in agricultural production worldwide. Many studies have demonstrated that women-led farms perform less well as a result of less access to production factors, but no studies focus on how women perform without this constraint. This study fills that gap by analyzing the case of cotton cropping, which is known for its high labor requirements, high production inputs, and need for technical knowledge. Using primary data collected in northern China over the 2006–9 period, it uses the concept of “Daily Crop Management” (DCM) and identifies DCM farms managed by women whose husbands were engaged in off-farm activities on a long-term basis. The study finds that one-third of all farms were female-DCM farms, that these were smaller than those of their male counterparts but had equal access to production factors and achieved equal if not better technical and economic performances.     

国家政策对农产品价格波动的影响分析——以棉花为例

2003年以来,我国一些主要农产品开始减产,价格开始逐渐回升,到2007年快速上涨,引发全国物价总水平不断攀升。以棉花为例,阐述了农产品价格形成机制的变迁,分析了国家政策对农产品价格波动的影响,在此基础上,提出了稳定农产品价格的对策。     

The costs and benefits of refuge requirements: The case of Bt cotton

Refuge requirements have been the primary regulatory tool to delay pest resistance to Bt crops. This paper presents a simple method to estimate the annual cost of refuges to producers, applying it to Bt cotton. It also examines broader welfare impacts, estimating how Bt cotton acreage restrictions affect producer surplus, consumer surplus, seed supplier profits, and commodity program outlays. The implications of grower adoption behavior — partial adoption, aggregate adoption, and refuge choice — for regulatory costs are examined. Empirical examples illustrate how providing multiple refuge options significantly reduces regulatory costs.     

Catch-up strategies and the latecomer effect in industrial development

Since 2003, the West and Central African (WCA) cotton initiative in the World Trade Organization has stood as an ambitious case of Africa's desire to be integrated into the trading system and yet also receive reparations for past injuries. This article seeks to explore how and why the initiative debuted through close attention to the interdependence between power and language in diplomatic practice. It takes the concept of cognitive framing to explore the relationship between political legitimacy and mobilisation capacities. The genesis of cotton as ‘an issue’ is critically examined, focusing on how the WCA countries constructed a novel ‘competitive victim’ frame to define themselves and the problem. While this opening move was effective, it also featured tensions that were exploited by Northern actors who were threatened by the campaign. I argue that what followed was the introduction of a politically driven ‘counterframe’, which divided the problem into a ‘trade-related’ component and a ‘development-related’ component. It is important to understand why and how this distinction was constructed and monitored. By scrutinising the relationship between framing and institutional power, I suggest that the counterframe won over the original frame, leading to a re-positioning of the demanders and a re-calibration of their expectations.     

The economics of biotechnology under ecosystem disruption

Economic analysis of chemical pesticide use has shown that the interactions between plants, pests, damage control technology and state of the ecosystem are important variables to be considered. Hence, a bio-economic model was developed for the assessment of Bt variety and pesticide-based control strategies of the cotton-bollworm in China. The model simulates plant growth, the dynamics of pest populations and of natural enemies. The model predictions are used as major inputs for a stochastic micro-level profit model of alternative control strategies.Results show that: (1) productivity effects of Bt varieties and pesticide use depend on the action of natural control agents, and (2) the profitability of damage control measures increases with the severity of ecosystem disruption. The findings highlight the importance of the choice of the counterfactual scenario in the assessment of the impact of agricultural biotechnology. Also, some doubts are raised whether the high benefits of Bt cotton varieties claimed by previous studies based on cross section comparisons are realistic.     

Why the Industrial Revolution Started in 18th Century Britain,Not China,from the Perspective of Globalization

The research examines the role of market expansion and international labor division in the British Industrial Revolution from the perspective of globalization. The research shows that British cotton textile output in pieces grew 275 times from the 1770s to the mid-1850s and documents that such growth would never have happened without a vast overseas market for the supply of raw cotton and the sale of products. The paper argues that the continuous and dramatic expansion of overseas markets allowed the British cotton industry to expand greatly without hitting the ceiling of marginal returns, leading not only to the great expansion of production, but also to technological and institutional innovations, and that international labor division made it possible for the industry to import ample amounts of raw cotton and export large amounts of cotton textiles. In contrast, foreign demand for Chinese cotton textiles increased significantly in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, but accounted for only 0.3% of production capacity, which was too little to lift the law of diminishing marginal returns and to induce either technological or institutional changes. As a result, only Smithian growths could be achieved through optimal resource utilization and specialization in production.     

棉花生产、国际贸易与纺织业的动态影响分析

纺织业的发展高度依赖于棉花。在纺织业持续增长的背景下,我国由棉花的净出口国变成最大的净进口国,全球经济的复苏将促进我国纺织业的增长,并进一步凸显棉花供给和需求之间的矛盾。以1978～2009年的数据为基础,在统计分析的基础上,利用协整模型检验棉花生产、国际贸易与纺织业的长期均衡关系,并通过脉冲响应模拟了在外部因素冲击下三者的动态响应态势。最后,从稳定纺织业长期发展的角度提出若干建议。     

我国棉花短期价格波动研究——基于时间序列

采用ARCH模型对我国国内短期棉花价格波动的影响因素进行了研究。结果显示:棉花流通体制改革和市场宏观调控政策对棉花价格波动分别表现为正向影响和负向影响;棉花当期价格受一期和八期滞后价格影响,这显示出市场主体预期对市场变动趋势具有一定影响;国内持续上涨的需求对棉花市场价格波动的影响相对不显著,而供需缺口的变动是影响国内棉花价格波动的重要因素;棉花进口量的增加有利于减弱国内棉花价格波动;国际市场棉花价格波动对国内价格波动存在显著的正向影响。短期内棉花价格呈现出明显的季节特征,这种季节特征与市场预期、供需变化有较大关联。     

新疆南部地区棉农生计变化影响因素分析——基于阿克苏地区阿瓦提县400户棉农的调查数据

为保证棉花这一国家战略性资源的数量和质量,确保新疆南部地区棉农生计的可持续性改善,本文试图对南疆棉农生计变化的影响因素进行深入分析。本研究运用阿克苏地区阿瓦提县实地调研和访谈数据,从户主的个人特征、家庭经营特征、家庭经营方式、自然灾害影响和政府补贴与资助五个方面对影响棉农家庭经营收入和生计变化的因素进行分析,进一步运用因子分析法等数学模型进行定量分析,得出南疆棉农生计变化影响因素的综合排名。研究结论表明：家庭经营规模,种子、农药及地膜投入,政府补贴资助量和套种数量四种因素对棉农生计变化影响较为显著。最后,建议通过政府补贴、政策制定、土地利用以及产业结构优化等方面的完善以促进南疆棉农生计变化的良性作用机制的形成。     

Endogeneity in panel stochastic frontier models: an application to the Japanese cotton spinning industry

We present a panel stochastic frontier model that handles the endogeneity problem. This model can treat the endogeneity of both frontier and inefficiency variables. We apply our method to examine the technical efficiency of Japanese cotton spinning industry. Our results indicate that market concentration is endogenous, and when its endogeneity is properly handled, it has a larger negative impact on the technical efficiency of cotton spinning plants. We find that the exogenous model substantially overestimates efficiency in concentrated markets.     

棉纺织业与城市化进程：1921—1990年——以石家庄市为例

关于石家庄城市的崛起,一般认为是由于近代京汉和正太铁路在石家庄市附近修筑,建国以后则由于石家庄成为河北省的省会城市所具有的政策优势。但毋庸置疑的是,棉纺织业发展在石家庄市人口聚集、产业振兴及推动城市化进程等方面发挥了作用。     

Annual Meeting of the Catholic Economic Association

This paper attempts to demonstrate that Keynes's practical writings on the crisis in the Lancashire cotton spinning industry in the 1920s were consistent with the 1930s theoretical conceptualisation of user costs in the General Theory. It is suggested that the key (common) link between these analyses is Keynes's concern with how uncertainty is distributed, in specific historical circumstances, between institutions at the levels of the firm, industry, the industry-financial institution interface, and the local and global economies. It is this concern which still has important, if not more, research and policy relevance today.     

Examining crop price effects on production decision and resource allocation: an ex-ante approach

This article examines the output price effects on the US crop production, employing an ex-ante approach to the differential systems of input demand and output supply. The estimation results of the differential input demand show that the expansion of crop production leads to an increase in acreage (i.e. extensive margin) and a proportional rise in input usage improving yield per acre (i.e. intensive margin). The substitutable relationship between fertilizer and land supports that crop producers have an option to choose either intensive or extensive margin in response to changes in their relative prices. In addition, the estimation results of the differential output supply highlight that the composition of crop supply can be altered by changes in ex-ante crop prices. The estimation results suggest that crop producers substitute corn supply for the supply of cotton, wheat and soybeans or vice versa. Based on the estimated elasticities, the decompositions of profit-maximizing input demand are conducted, which reveals that a change in ex-ante crop prices is associated closely with resource reallocation.     

Impact of Bt cotton on pesticide poisoning in smallholder agriculture: A panel data analysis

While substantial research on the productivity and profit effects of Bt cotton has been carried out recently, the economic evaluation of positive and negative externalities has received much less attention. Here, we focus on farmer health impacts resulting from Bt-related changes in chemical pesticide use. Previous studies have documented that Bt cotton has reduced the problem of pesticide poisoning in developing countries, but they have failed to account for unobserved heterogeneity between technology adopters and non-adopters. We use unique panel survey data from India to estimate unbiased effects and their developments over time. Bt cotton has reduced pesticide applications by 50%, with the largest reductions of 70% occurring in the most toxic types of chemicals. Results of fixed-effects Poisson models confirm that Bt has notably reduced the incidence of acute pesticide poisoning among cotton growers. These effects have become more pronounced with increasing technology adoption rates. Bt cotton now helps to avoid several million cases of pesticide poisoning in India every year, which also entails sizeable health cost savings.