A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London

The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity.     

Spillover effects of the development constraints in London Heathrow Airport

In this article we assess the growth impact of London Heathrow’s development constraints on other airports in the UK. To test the relationship we use a two-stage methodology yielding an estimate of a congestion spillover effect. Our data are passenger traffic from 1990 to 2012 containing both intercontinental and European air traffic. For intercontinental air traffic, our results show high congestion spillover effect between Heathrow and Gatwick airports, and significant but lesser effect to Stansted airport. We also find significant congestion spillover effects from Heathrow to the spatially more distant Manchester and Birmingham airports, showing the extensive spatial impact of Heathrow’s development constraints. For European air traffic, controlling for low-cost air carrier growth, only two airports show significant congestion spillover effects: Gatwick and London City Airports. Illustrating that low-cost carriers do not operate from Heathrow, so its limitations cannot affect the predominant low-cost air traffic in other airports. The novel methodology we present in this paper can be applied to congestion research in general to assess regional and modal spills within networks.     

The role of London airports in providing connectivity for the UK: regional dependence on foreign hubs

In a context of ongoing debate about the future UK aviation policy and its implications for regional economic development, this paper discusses the role of London Heathrow and the South East airports in providing connectivity for the UK, with particular focus on the international markets that originate from regional UK airports. Using an MIDT dataset of worldwide passenger itineraries served by the European airport network during May 2013, we first establish whether London Heathrow can currently be considered the most important hub for the UK, in terms of traffic generation, connectivity, and centrality, while also measuring the dependence of UK regions on foreign airports and airlines to remain connected with the rest of the world. Results show that, despite the competition, London Heathrow benefits from its massive traffic generation to remain the most central gateway for overall UK air transport markets. However, when only regional markets are considered, significant dependence on foreign hubs appears in many destinations, particularly to Asia–Pacific or the BRIC countries where above 80% of passengers use transfer flights. These results fit nicely with the observed trends of seat de-concentration and hub-bypassing in the airline industry. While dependence on foreign hubs can be interpreted as a sign of vulnerability, there is also the argument that bypassing Heathrow allows regional airports to develop new markets and reduce the level of congestion in the London airport system.     

Current and future noise impacts of the UK hub airport

Noise is a negative byproduct of aviation operations, the effects of which can have a significant impact on human health and welfare. In this study, we model the present day noise impacts from two London airports: Heathrow and Gatwick. We monetize perceivable and attributable impacts using a willingness to pay for abatement from hedonic pricing studies, and we monetize other health impacts by combining the value of life years lost from mortalities and a cost of illness approach. We find that noise generated by operations at these two airports impacts 255,800 people, contributing to 54 myocardial infarctions and 17 premature mortalities each year. We find annual total damages of £80.3 million and £0.87 million attributable to Heathrow and Gatwick respectively. Further, we calculate expected noise impacts in 2030. Due to capacity constraints and technology improvements, noise impacts are expected to decrease to £76.5 million per annum if neither airport undergoes expansion. However, if Heathrow expands through runway extension or construction of an additional runway, total damages increase £92.5 million or £104.6 million respectively. Expanding Gatwick with a second independent runway results in total annual damages of £78.8 million.     

Analysing and modelling some effects of solutions for matching the airport runway system capacity to demand

The paper deals with analysing and modelling some effects of three solutions for matching the airport runway system (landing) capacity to corresponding demand. These are: i) charging congestion applied to the NY LaGuardia airport (New York, USA); ii) deployment of the innovative operational procedures supported by the new technologies developing in the scope of European SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) and U.S. NextGen (Next Generation) program applied to the system of two closely-spaced parallel runways at Dubai International airport (Dubai, UAE (United Arab Emirates)); and iii) building the new additional runway(s) applied to the runway system of three London airports - Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted (London, UK).The results have shown that each of the considered solutions can contribute to more efficient and effective matching of the airport runway (landing) capacity to the current and expected (prospectively growing) airside demand under given (specified) conditions.     

EU/US Open Skies – Competition and change in the world aviation market: The implications for the Irish aviation market

The EU/US Open Skies agreement became operational on March 29th, 2008. The 23% increase in flights between Ireland and the US in 2008 under the agreement is the highest expected increase under the agreement and is almost three times greater than the expected overall increase in air travel between the EU and the US. Open Skies increases the number of routes between Ireland and the US by 3 to 10 and allows airlines to fly directly to and from Dublin without a compulsory stop at Shannon. There are very strong economic, investment, visitor, political and ethnic ties between Ireland and the US and air travel between the countries per head of population in Ireland is 5.6 times greater than the EU average. The benefits from Open Skies include lower fares, new routes and direct services reducing the need to backtrack over European hubs, in addition to the abolition of the requirement to stopover at Shannon.     

The effect of LCC market entry on dominant FSC's price into long haul sector: A case of Norwegian competition on British Airways' prices on selected transatlantic routes

The concept of long-haul low-cost operations has become somewhat appealing in the airline industry in recent years. In Europe, the rapid expansion of low-cost carrier Norwegian that entered the long-haul markets from several large metropolises (London, Paris, Barcelona, etc.) imposed a burden of challenges to full-service carriers (FSCs). However, Norwegian operates a large portion of its long-haul service from London Gatwick by offering flights mainly on high-density routes. Although Norwegian's capacity and market shares on these routes are still at a low level mainly due to the carrier's “puppy-dog” strategy, it seems that its effect on British Airways, the dominant carrier on these markets, cannot be ignored. The purpose of the research is to examine the extent to which the presence of Norwegian affects the prices charged by British Airways on three selected high-density transatlantic routes performed from London area. The model applies simultaneous equation systems to determine how the emergence of Norwegian affects the price and the passenger volume of British Airways, as a traditionally dominant carrier, at the city-pair markets. The findings are consistent with the well-established view held in the literature, that a LCC's presence at a specific market would generally affect the incumbents to reduce their prices. Indeed, British Airways announced the capacity expansion as a counter-strategy to mitigate the competitive pressure induced by Norwegian and its affordable service.     

Assessing strategic flight schedules at an airport using machine learning-based flight delay and cancellation predictions

To mitigate air traffic demand-capacity imbalances, large European airports implement strategic flight schedules, where flights are assigned arrival/departure slots several months prior to execution. We propose a generic assessment of such strategic schedules using predictions about arrival/departure flight delays and cancellations. We demonstrate our approach for strategic flight schedules in the period 2013–2018 at London Heathrow Airport. Together with the development of dedicated strategic flight schedule optimization models, our proposed approach supports an integrated strategic flight schedule assessment, where schedules are evaluated with respect to flight delays and cancellations.     

Going steerage on Ryanair: cultures of migrant air travel between Poland and the UK

One of the most high profile migration movements to the UK in recent years has undoubtedly been that of A8, and mainly Polish, newcomers following the 2004 expansion of the EU. Accompanying, and perhaps fuelling, this increase in mobility has been a substantial rise in low cost air travel provision. The UK Civil Aviation Authority and the Civil Aviation Office of the Republic of Poland statistics testify to the expansion in passenger numbers between Poland and the UK since 2004, with Ryanair being one of the main carriers. Although other modes of transport, such as coach and car travel, are still important, in some senses these Ryanair flights define this new migration. Taking as a starting point that airports and airplanes are social and cultural venues in their own right, and that migration journeys are themselves at the heart of the migration experience, this article uses interviews with Polish migrants in the UK to consider this low cost air travel for migration in more depth. Firstly it briefly charts the increase in air travel between Poland and the UK, considering the narratives of mobility cultures collected with the migrants. Secondly it investigates the collective dimension of travelling for migration on these flights and the tensions which emerge around this collectivity. Finally, it reflects on the wider costs and contexts of low cost shuttle flights as a late capitalist mode of migration transport.     

The choice of air carrier, flight, and fare class

This paper reports the development and interpretation of air traveler choice models to gain insights into the tradeoffs air travelers make when they choose among different carriers, flights, and fare classes. Such insights can be used to support carrier decisions on flight scheduling, pricing, seat allocation, and ticket restrictions. This paper develops a conceptual framework and applies it to the choice of carrier, flight, and fare class as a basis for analyzing air travel demand in a competitive market. Model estimation results are used to quantify the importance of carrier preferences, market presence, quality of service, frequent flyer program membership, schedule convenience, and fares on carrier travel demand. The empirical results provide measures of the premium that business and leisure travelers are willing to pay to avoid schedule delays, to choose a carrier in which frequent-flyer program they participate, and to obtain the amenities and freedom from travel restrictions associated with higher fare classes.     

British airways’ move to Terminal 5 at London Heathrow airport: A statistical analysis of transfer baggage performance

This paper investigates transfer baggage performance when British Airways’ occupancy of Terminal 5 at London Heathrow Airport took place. Operational data on transfer baggage performance are collated from BA performance scorecards and the Gini coefficient is used as a measure of consolidation of flight operations within a single terminal and in the investigation of correlation of consolidated flights in Terminal 5 with transfer baggage performance variation. The relationship between consolidation of operations in the terminal and improving transfer baggage performance is found to be significant. In addition, there is evidence of significant changes in transfer baggage performance on switch phases of flights as they were moved to Terminal 5 in steps. The exclusive use of a terminal gives improved performance.     

Network competition in the open aviation area

In 2008 the ‘joint open aviation area’ between the US and EU will become reality. It is expected that competition will increase. The reaction of the airlines depends on the possibility to make profits in ‘new’ markets (markets that can now be entered). This, in turn, depends on network characteristics. In this paper we find that full liberalization of international markets by means of a bilateral agreement results in higher welfare than the formation of an alliance. Carriers, however, will also in fully deregulated aviation markets most likely opt for an alliance. This is a result of a built-in competitive effect of hub–spoke networks. Only in markets where the reservation price is very high (e.g. to London Heathrow), hub–spoke airlines may enter a competitive game. Low-cost airlines, which do not operate extensive hub–spoke networks, may find it profitable to enter new markets.     

Measuring imported case risk of COVID-19 from inbound international flights --- A case study on China

With COVID-19 spreading around the world, many countries are exposed to the imported case risk from inbound international flights. Several governments issued restrictions on inbound flights to mitigate such risk. But with the pandemic controlled in many countries, some decide to reopen the economy by relaxing the international air travel bans. As the virus has still been prevailing in many regions, this relaxation raises the alarm to import overseas cases and results in the revival of local pandemic. This study proposes a risk index to measure one country's imported case risk from inbound international flights. The index combines both daily dynamic international air connectivity data and the updated global COVID-19 data. It can measure the risk at the country, province and even specific route level. The proposed index was applied to China, which is the first country to experience and control COVID-19 pandemic while later becoming exposed to high imported case risk after the epidemic centers switched to Europe and the US afterward. The calculated risk indexes for each Chinese province or region show both spatial and temporal patterns from January to April 2020. It is found that China's strict restriction on inbound flights since March 26 was very effective to cut the imported case risk by half than doing nothing. But the overall index level kept rising because of the deteriorating pandemic conditions around the world. Hong Kong and Taiwan are the regions facing the highest imported case risk due to their superior international air connectivity and looser restriction on inbound flights. Shandong Province had the highest risk in February and early March due to its well-developed air connectivity with South Korea and Japan when the pandemic peaked in these two countries. Since mid-March, the imported case risk from Europe and the US dramatically increased. Last, we discuss policy implications for the relevant stakeholders to use our index to dynamically adjust the international air travel restrictions. This risk index can also be applied to other contexts and countries to relax restrictions on particular low-risk routes while still restricting the high-risk ones. This would balance the essential air travels need and the requirement to minimize the imported case risk.     

Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union

This study analyses the structure of air traffic and its distribution among the different countries in the European Union, as well as traffic with an origin or destination in non-EU countries. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions data. The segmentation of air traffic in terms of distance permits an assessment of air transport competition with surface transport modes.The results show a clear concentration of traffic in the five larger countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), in terms of RPKs. In terms of distance the segment between 500 and 1000 km in the EU, has more flights, passengers, RTKs and CO₂ emissions than larger distances. On the environmental side, the distribution of CO₂ emissions within the EU Member States is presented, together with fuel efficiency parameters. In general, a direct relationship between RPKs and CO₂ emissions is observed for all countries and all distance bands. Consideration is given to the uptake of alternative fuels. Segmenting CO₂ emissions per distance band and aircraft type reveals which flights contribute the most the overall EU CO₂ emissions. Finally, projections for future CO₂ emissions are estimated, according to three different air traffic growth and biofuel introduction scenarios.     

Aviation and the environment in the context of the EU–US Open Skies agreement

We examine the impacts of the EU–US Open Skies agreement on the environment on emissions from the aviation sector. We use the Hamburg Tourism Model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows, to estimate these impacts. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between carriers and falls in the cost of transatlantic flights. This will not only have implications for the size and structure of the industry but also for climate policy. The paper assesses what effects the expected increases in passenger numbers will have on CO₂ emissions and tests whether this increase in travel will result in a corresponding rise in emissions. Simulations show that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by between 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions because of substitution between destinations, the percentage increase in global emissions is much smaller (max. 1%) than the increase in cross-Atlantic traffic.     

A dynamic demand analysis of the United States air-passenger service

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of various determinants on the demand for US air passenger-services using the Johansen cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction (VEC) model. Results show that, in the long-run, airfare, disposable income and NASDAQ have significant effects on US air travel demand. The combined short-run dynamic effects of disposable income, NASDAQ, population and airfare jointly explain changes in air passenger-miles. Finally, we find that the 9/11 terrorist attacks drop air passenger demand by 5% during 2001:Q3-2002:Q2, which in turn pushes down the seat capacity by 4%. However, it has little impact on airfare.     

Is increasing aircraft size common practice of airlines at congested airports?

If the overall demand for air transport grows, but additional airport capacity is not available at congested airports, we could assume that airlines will offer flights with more seats in order to cope with the demand. An analysis of frequency and average seat capacity developments at congested, and not yet congested airports, has shown that the hypothesis of bigger aircraft being used in congested situations is valid in most instances, although not at all airports. The objective of this paper is to report on an analysis of the development of average seat capacity at congested airports, in contrast to the situation at not yet congested airports, and to find out the reasons for airlines increasing the number of seats at congested airports, by means of a statistical model using variables including the degree of airport congestion and average flight distance.     

An exploratory examination of additional ground access trips generated by airport ‘meeter-greeters’

A significant share of airport passengers are accompanied to and/or from the airport by friends and relatives to wave them off or greet them when they land. At some airports the number of these ‘meeter-greeters’ can be substantial, which can have important ground access planning, economic and environmental implications for the airport operator. Yet this group have received comparatively little attention in either the academic or industry literature. Consequently, to some extent ‘meeter-greeters’ have remained something of a ‘hidden’ element of ground access user. In an attempt to address this, the paper uses secondary data analysis of the UK CAA Passenger Survey Report to explore ‘meeter-greeters’ at five UK airports; Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester, Stansted and Luton. Focus is given to assessing the scale of ‘meeter-greeter’ journeys and the role of a passenger's trip purpose (business/leisure) and resident status (resident/non-resident) in this process. A key finding from the analysis relates to the disproportionate impact of multi-person trips, where a number of different ‘meeter-greeters’ accompany a passenger to the airport. The implications of these findings are discussed and a number of recommendations for decision makers proposed. Namely, it is suggested that airport monitoring and assessment procedures should incorporate a measure of the additional trip generation by ‘meeter-greeters’ in order to present a more complete picture of the number of people accessing/egressing an airport.     

Airline fuel usage and carbon emissions: Determining factors

Using annual data on individual US airlines over the 1995–2015 period, this paper presents regression results relating an airline's total fuel usage to seven variables: the available ton miles of capacity (passengers plus freight and mail) provided by the airline; the average seat capacity of its aircraft, average stage length (flight distance); average load factor (measured by weight); the average vintage (construction year) of its aircraft; the percentage of the airline's flights that are delayed; and the average annual fuel price. The results show how fuel usage and carbon emissions depend on a small set of crucial variables. The estimated fuel-price effect allows the emissions impact of an optimal emissions charge to be computed, and the estimated delay effect shows the emissions impact of an industry-wide reduction in flight delays. The regression model is generated from a theoretical framework.     

Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air transportation in China

This study investigates the impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) on domestic air transportation in China using a new comprehensive modeling framework utilizing both demand and supply perspectives. For the first time the assessment was conducted using an improved panel regression model by taking into account of the detailed opening schedules of various HSR services during the period 2001–2014. The research findings reveal that the deployed HSR services have a significant substitutional effect on domestic air transportation in China, but the effect varies across different HSR routes, travel distance and city type. Specifically, the research found a decrease in domestic passengers of 28.2%, in flights of 24.6% and in seat capacity of 27.9% after the introduction of HSR services. The impacts are found much stronger among those air routes that connect major hub within a distance range of 500 to 800 km. The uneven nature of the impact can be seen in the different experiences of selected cities. For example, air travel declined approximately 45% after commencement of the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR, whereas it fell by 34% after the opening of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR.