机构投资者异质性与IPO抑价——基于科创板的实证研究

科创板实施注册制后,机构投资者占比增多,但IPO高抑价现象仍然突出。基于2019—2021年科创板公司数据,研究机构投资者异质性对科创板IPO抑价的影响。结论显示：在科创板初期,买方报价的非市场性和二级市场投资热情高涨,机构投资者持股未能缓解科创板IPO抑价,而机构投资者异质性对IPO抑价影响差异较大,除了受IPO定价效率有限和二级市场投资热情影响外,还受其投研能力、定价能力和机构资金用途要求等因素的影响;估值分歧强化了机构投资者持股对科创板IPO抑价的促进作用,但对不同机构投资者持股与IPO抑价之间的调节效应存在差异性,这应该与企业信息披露程度有关。建议从强化监管投资者询价行为、加强上市企业信息披露质量、规范IPO企业估值体系、合理提高机构投资者权益资金配置比重和提升投资者的投研能力等方面推进科创板IPO定价机制更趋向理性、合理。     

注册制新股发行市场化改革成效及其优化研究

本文系统评估注册制新股发行市场化改革成效,深入挖掘全面推行新股发行市场化定价的内在逻辑和深层次阻力,以此探究健全注册制IPO市场化询价、定价和承销机制优化的政策路径。研究发现:(1)新股发行市场化改革有效引导了投资者询价行为,提升了IPO定价效率和市场运行效率;(2)"激励约束相容"的新股询价与定价机制仍部分缺位,市场化充分博弈的IPO定价均衡机制尚未真正形成;(3)强化保荐机构监管,提高投行执业质量,是破解IPO市场化改革"堵点"与"阻力点"的关键环节。基于注册制新股发行改革绩效的系统评估和问题剖析,本文提出加快建立市场化充分博弈均衡定价机制、完善询价机构估值定价依据管理、强化网下投资者分类监管及投行业务全链条监管等制度优化建议。     

券商声誉损失与公司IPO市场表现——来自中国上市公司IPO造假的新证据

理论研究表明声誉好的券商在公司IPO过程中能发挥认证作用,但是在实证中学者们对于券商声誉是否真的发挥了认证功能仍然莫衷一是。与国内外文献中普遍采用的券商市场份额、排名等间接声誉指标不同,本文以中国券商所承销的公司IPO过程违规造假为新的研究视角,从声誉损失的角度重新衡量了券商声誉,并以公司IPO后市场表现检验了券商声誉的认证效应。实证研究表明,相较声誉受损的券商,声誉未受损的券商确实具有更好的认证效果,具体表现在:(1)从同一时期来看,相较于那些没有被披露承销过IPO违规造假公司的券商,承销过IPO违规造假公司的券商再次承销的公司IPO发行抑价率较高,股票长期回报率较低;(2)对于同一券商,相对于在IPO违规造假披露之前,在披露之后(声誉受损)券商所承销的公司IPO表现为显著较高的发行抑价率和显著较低的股票长期回报率;(3)基于双重差分模型的结果依然支持上述结论。实证结果还表明相对于传统的券商声誉指标,基于IPO造假构建的声誉损失指标更加有效。     

IPO定价方式孰优孰劣

IPO最核心的工作就是首次对公司股份这种金融商品定价,IPO定价也是国际金融界公认的最具迷惑性的难题之一。在IPO定价过程中,首先需要承销商根据发行人的财务信息进行公司估值,由此得到一个公司估值区间,可以将此看作是IPO定价中的供给信息,而市场投资者对此供给信息有怎样的看法即需求信息的发掘,则是通过不同的定价方式来体现的。     

IPO定价方式的比较分析与我国IPO定价的市场化改革

资本市场的基本功能之一就是对资产进行合理定价。国际上常用的IPO定价评估方法主要有三大类。分别是绝对估值法、相对估值法和实物期权法,在具体运用过程中,它们各自都有优缺点。而当前我国IPO定价存在的问题表现为抑价幅度过大、机构投资者操纵新股询价、发行监管部门的权力与责任不对等以及发行公司信息披露机制不完善。改变这些不足的方法是坚持IPO定价的市场化改革方向,尤其是要引入问责机制,进一步完善IPO询价制度。     

新股询价制度考量中介机构

2004年8月30日,中国证监会公开向市场征求对<关于首次发行股票试行询价制度若干问题的通知>(征求意见稿)的意见,预示着证监会将从制度上解决在IPO定价问题,有人称之为"IPO新政".试行新股询价制度,将对我国证券市场的从业者,特别是券商、律师、顾问公司、基金公司等产生极大的影响,从经营理念、业务能力、承销能力、服务水平等方面全面考量中介机构,给他们带来机会的同时,也将带来更多的挑战.     

跟投制度提高新股定价效率了吗

跟投制度是注册制下开创性的改革实践,旨在保护高度市场化程度下的投资者利益。本文从IPO定价的视角出发,研究跟投制度对新股定价效率的影响,为分析跟投制度的有效性提供了经验证据。本文以2019年7月22日—2021年12月31日1074家A股上市企业为主样本进行实证研究后发现,相较于保荐券商未跟投的IPO企业,券商跟投的IPO企业抑价率更低。机制检验发现,降低市场信息不对称程度和扩大投资者意见分歧,是跟投制度降低IPO抑价率的两种渠道。拓展性研究发现,券商跟投提高了市场短期和中期回报率,但也加剧了后市波动风险,并增加了IPO承销费用。本研究对评价注册制下跟投制度效果和新股定价效率具有一定参考价值。     

券商跟投意愿、询价制调整与IPO定价偏误——来自中国科创板市场的经验证据

本文以科创板跟投制度和9.18询价新规为背景,选取2019年7月22日至2022年5月1日上市的420家科创板公司为研究样本,实证检验了券商跟投意愿、询价制调整与IPO定价偏误三者之间的关系。结果显示,券商跟投意愿对承销保荐公司的IPO定价偏误具有显著的抑制效果。科创板询价制调整同样起到了抑制IPO定价偏误的效果,并且对券商跟投意愿与IPO定价偏误的关系具有显著的调节作用,该调整强化了券商跟投意愿对IPO定价偏误的抑制效果。鉴于规定跟投数额对跟投意愿存在直接影响,本文按照规定跟投比例开展异质性分析,结果显示,5%的规定跟投组中券商跟投意愿的信号作用最佳。建议通过区间化跟投强化券商跟投意愿的信号作用,将询价制中最高报价剔除比例由“不超过3%”明确为“1%左右”。     

香港市场基石投资者制度的实践与借鉴

基石投资者是香港IP O市场引导合理定价、提高发行效率的一项重要制度安排。本文对2013―2019年港股I P O进行实证分析,发现引入基石投资者可以提高IPO定价效率,帮助体量较大或估值较难的企业顺利上市,在低迷行情中起到市场稳定器的作用,但同时也存在个股流动性不足、利益输送等风险隐患。考虑到国内外形势复杂严峻,市场不确定性增强,注册制改革加速推进,新股稀缺性优势减弱,有必要借鉴香港基石投资者制度经验,进一步优化A股现行战略配售制度,合理稳定市场预期。同时,建议加强对参与战略配售投资者的信息获得、持股限售期以及信息披露等方面的监管力度。     

IPO价值定价与公允价值计量选择

引入公允价值计量是公司IPO价值评估方法的发展趋势。公允价值计量方法有利于增强IPO公司会计信息的解释能力,能够为新股投资者提供更高效率的决策信息。公允价值的估值技术在IPO定价方面需要有层次地逐级使用,IPO定价就是投资者投入价值和发行人产出价值的均衡结果。以公允价值计量IPO资产,是买卖双方自愿交换资产和权益。因此,推行公允价值计量的IPO定价,应该寻找具有可靠性的估值技术,视企业特征、行业属性和资产类别的不同情形而采取相应办法。     

IPO限价发行与新股二级市场价格泡沫——论股票市场“弹簧效应”

本文通过对比2009年7月1日至2014年6月30日IPO市场化定价发行阶段与2014年7月1日至2018年6月30日IPO限价发行阶段共1950个IPO样本,发现IPO限价发行对于新股在二级市场股价表现具有“弹簧效应”:即抑制股票一级市场发行价格会造成新股在二级市场价格短期内超涨,限价发行新股的二级市场定价显著高于市场化定价发行新股的二级市场定价。限价发行引起的过高二级市场定价最终导致股票长期回报率低下。另外,创业板公司“弹簧效应”显著强于主板公司。这些实证结果都可以被本文提出的一级市场价格压抑造成二级市场非理性投资者上涨预期一致、盲目追涨的理论模型所解释。本文的研究指出抑制股票一级市场定价虽然形式上可以解决新股发行价过高问题,但是却造成二级市场更大的价格扭曲。这一发现为进一步完善我国IPO发行定价机制提供了依据。     

The IPO corporate social responsibility information disclosure: Does the stock market care?

We create textual information indices using corporate social responsibility (CSR) information extracted from IPO prospectuses in China. We use the indices to measure the issuers’ corporate social performance (CSP) and corporate environmental performance (CEP) and assess how the stock market reacts. We find that CSP disclosure is significantly related to the post‐market performance of the firm. Specifically, better CSP disclosure is correlated with higher post‐IPO listing holding period returns among firms that do not disclose donations or environmental expenditures, although the association does not hold for firms that make donations and environmental expenditures. In addition, institutional investors seem to care more about the CEP information for a firm than the CSP information.     

Do media connections help? Evidence from IPO pricing in China

This study examines how social connections between media executives and firms affect initial public offering (IPO) pricing using manually collected Chinese data. We find media-connected firms receive more frequent and more positive coverage than their unconnected peers, resulting in reduced IPO underpricing. However, media-connected firms have worse post-IPO market performance. Although media-connected firms have better pre-IPO accounting performance, they conduct more earnings management under the cover provided by their connected media. Additional results show that the negative effect of media connections on IPO underpricing is more pronounced for media that are not controlled by the central government and are based in the same city as the firm. It is also more pronounced for firms with less institutional ownership and non-state-owned enterprises. Our results remain valid after various robustness tests, such as alternative proxies for IPO underpricing, eliminating alternative hypotheses, matching analysis, instrumental variable analysis, as well as placebo tests. Collectively, our findings suggest that media connections compromise IPO pricing efficiency.     

卖空者与内幕交易——来自中国证券市场的证据

本文研究上市公司内部人减持、年报、诉讼、分析师评级、停复牌以及高送转等重大公告前后卖空交易行为的变化,系统考察卖空者是否参与内幕交易以及何种因素影响卖空者参与内幕交易,发现卖空率较高的股票具有较低的未来收益,表明卖空者拥有信息优势,属知情交易者;卖空者拥有非常精确的择时交易能力,在重大利空公告前显著增加卖空量,而在利好公告前则显著减少卖空头寸,表明卖空者作为知情交易者的信息优势源自内幕消息;公司内、外部投资者的信息不对称程度越低或公司所在地的法治水平越高,卖空者参与内幕交易的行为就越少。因此,监管机构应密切关注公司重大消息发布前后卖空量的异常变动,同时,完善信息披露规则、健全证券分析师制度并强化法律法规的执行力度,才能有效防范卖空者参与内幕交易。     

Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?

Research optimism among securities analysts has been attributed to incentives provided by underwriting activities. We examine how analysts’ forecast and recommendation optimism varies with the business activities used to fund research. We find that analysts at firms that funded research through underwriting and trading activities actually made less optimistic forecasts and recommendations than those at brokerage houses, who performed no underwriting. Optimism was particularly low for bulge underwriter firm analysts, implying that firm reputation reduces research optimism. There is also evidence that analysts at retail brokerage firms are more optimistic than those serving only institutional investors. We conclude that analyst optimism is at least partially driven by trading incentives.     

Institutional affiliation and the role of venture capital: Evidence from initial public offerings in Japan

The presence of venture capital in the ownership structure of U.S. firms going public has been associated with both improved long-term performance and superior “certification” at the time of the initial public offerings (IPOs). Many of the major venture capital firms in Japan are subsidiaries of securities firms that may face a conflict of interest when underwriting the venture capital-backed issue. In Japan, we find the long-run performance of venture capital-backed IPOs to be no better than that of other IPOs, with the exception of firms backed by foreign-owned or independent venture capitalists. When venture capital holdings are broken down by their institutional affiliation, we find that firms with venture backing from securities company subsidiaries do not perform significantly worse over a 3-year time horizon than other IPOs. On the other hand, we find that IPOs in which the lead venture capitalist is also the lead underwriter have higher first-day returns than other venture capital-backed IPOs. The latter result suggests that conflicts of interest influence the initial pricing, but not the long-term performance, of IPOs in Japan.     

证券市场会计信息披露问题探讨

会计信息披露制度是证券市场制度体系的重要组成部分.规范的会计信息披露,对我国证券市场健康有序地发展至关重要.探究证券市场财务会计信息披露过程当中存在的问题及原因,以期寻求解决的方案和对策.     

科创板运行中相关风险点与防范研究

科创板试点注册制改革,突出科创定位,通过一系列制度创新以期更有效地促进科技创新,但其功能发挥因现实局限性受到制约。基于逻辑梳理、风险分析与国际经验借鉴,本文提出科创板发展中相关风险防范与顶层设计优化的建议:一是核心目的上,要以增强市场定价机制的功能发挥为核心,促进科技创新;二是监管思路上,要以提升信息披露质量为抓手,构建良好的信息披露生态;三是从长远看,要以优化交易制度和投资者结构为重点,促进二级市场运行行稳致远。     

Competing for underwriting market share: The case of commercial banks and securities firms

This study analyzes changes in the underwriting market share of securities firms and commercial banks over a 20-year period that encompasses the deregulation period of 1989–1999. The study finds that, after controlling for firm combination effects, there is no evidence that commercial banks gained share at the expense of ranked traditional underwriters. There is strong evidence that market breadth helps both securities firms and commercial banks to gain market share, whereas greater share in the underwriting of a specific security has the opposite effect on next year's market share. There is supportive but limited evidence that high-volume years favor commercial banks, whereas low-volume years favor prestigious underwriters. The influence of firm-specific factors is limited to a few markets, which may explain the stickiness of underwriting market share of ranked firms over time.