Presidents, Justices, and Deference to Administrative Action

This article examines the effect of the relationship betweenthe president and Supreme Court Justices on justices' votingin administrative law cases. I evaluate Cohen and Spitzer'stheory that justices tailor the pro- or antideference signalsent to the lower courts based on their relationship with thesitting president. The results show, contrary to the theoryof Cohen and Spitzer, that justices' votes in administrativelaw cases are influenced by the ideology of the president underwhom the administrative decisions were made rather than by theideology of the president in office at the time of the Court'sdecision.     

Comparing Fuzzy and Probabilistic Approaches to Preference Uncertainty in Non-Market Valuation

In seeking to value environmental amenities and public goods, individuals often have trouble trading off the (vague) good or amenity against a monetary measure. Valuation in these circumstances can best be described as fuzzy in terms of the amenity being valued, perceptions of property rights, and the numbers chosen to reflect values. In this paper, we apply fuzzy logic to contingent valuation, employing a fuzzy clustering approach for incorporating preference uncertainty obtained from a follow-up certainty confidence question. We develop a fuzzy random utility maximization (FRUM) framework where the perceived utility of each individual is fuzzy in the sense that an individual’s utility belongs to each cluster to some degree. The model is then applied to a Swedish survey that elicited residents’ willingness to pay for enhanced forest conservation and to a Canadian survey of agricultural landowners that elicited their willingness to accept compensation for a tree planting program. Both the WTP and WTA measures we obtain using the fuzzy approach are well below those obtained using standard probability methods. Based on goodness of fit measures and Monte Carlo experimentation, a case can be made for using a fuzzy preference approach for modeling preference uncertainty as opposed to incorporating respondent uncertainty within the random utility maximization framework.      

Preference Anomalies,Preference Elicitation and the Discovered Preference Hypothesis

There is wide-ranging evidence, much of it deriving from economics experiments, of ‘anomalies’ in behaviour that challenge standard preference theories. This paper explores the implications of these anomalies for preference elicitation methods. Because methods that are used to inform public policy, such as contingent valuation, are based on standard preference theories, their validity may be called into question by the anomaly data. However, on a new interpretation, these anomalies do not contradict standard theory but are errors in stated preference that can be expected to disappear as people become more experienced in relevant decision environments. We explore the evidence for this interpretation and what implications follow for preference elicitation methodology. JEL classifications: C91, D01, D60, D81, D83, H40     

偏好、技术与工业化

Krugman(1 991b)的两地区模型解释了报酬递增的制造业企业为实现规模经济和降低运输成本而定位于需求较大的市场区域。本文通过引入部门间人口流动成本和地区间技术差异 ,认为新兴制造业可以在外围地区形成 ,并缩小地区间差异。     

Rent, risk, and replication: Preference adaptation in winner-take-all markets

We study the evolution of an economy where agents who are heterogeneous with respect to risk attitudes can either earn a certain income or enter a risky rent-seeking contest. We assume that agents behave rationally given their preferences, but that the population distribution of preferences evolves over time in response to material payoffs. We show that, in particular, initial distributions with full support converge to stationary states where all types are still present. Although rents are perfectly dissipated in material terms at a steady state, efficiency is greater than if everybody had been risk neutral, since risk lovers specialize in rent seeking.     

Imports, Status Preference, and Foreign Borrowing

This paper considers the implications of consumption and borrowing externalities in a small open economy framework. The former reflect the assumption that status conscious agents care about the relative consumption of imported goods, while the latter arise because agents do not take into account the effects of their borrowing decisions on the interest rate on debt. We analyze in the paper the impact of an increase in the degree of status preference on the saddlepath adjustment of the decentralized economy. In addition, the contrasting steady‐state and dynamic properties of the social planner’s economy are derived, along with the corresponding optimal tax and subsidy policies.     

贴现因子、偏好和行为经济学

本文讨论了影响人们跨时选择的重要因素--贴现因子的最新进展以及他们在经济学和金融中的重要应用,给出了目前关于改变贴现因子的模型.     

Australia, Japan and the OECD: GDP Rankings and Revealed Preference

Data on volumes and prices of consumption and investment are used to compare Australian real GDP for 1990 with the other OECD countries. Australian consumption patterns, including leisure, and price structure are very different from most other countries and especially from those of Japan. The Australian bundle of consumption, investment and leisure is revealed preferred to that of Japan and a number of other countries which are conventionally ranked above Australia in comparisons of real GDP per capita at international prices.     

Scientific Numerology,Preference Anomalies,and Environmental Policymaking

Recently an abundance of experimental evidence has been gathered that is consonant with the notion that individual preferences are inconsistent and unstable. These empirical results potentially undermine the theoretical foundation of welfare economics, as the degree of preference lability claimed suggests that perhaps no optimization principles underlie even the most straightforward of choices. Yet policymakers in the environmental arena continue to prescribe policies based on economics-based methods that are constructed on the very principles that have been directly refuted. Are policymakers creatures of habit that move at glacial speed or is there something deeper behind their inertness? In this study, I explore this issue within the U.S. context and argue that there is some rationality behind current public policy decisionmaking. I then explore whether the empirical evidence supports the view that policymakers should take preference anomalies seriously. As a case study, I focus on some of my recent findings on preference inconsistencies in the marketplace.     

Preference Structures, Property Rights, and Paired Comparisons

The method of paired comparisons was used to determine the structure of survey participants' value expressions for Australian native forests. The same participants were also surveyed using the contingent valuation method (CVM). Data from the paired comparisons were used to construct preference maps which enabled identification of participants whose value expressions were structurally incompatible with economic welfare theory – in particular, those participants who expressed their values according to lexicographic preferences. For some of these participants, CVM results did not provide appropriate measures of WTP. The surveys also demonstrated the importance of allowing participants' own views on property rights to dictate the valuation context offered.     

Endogenous Time Preference, Inflation, and Capital Accumulation

In an infinitely lived, representative agent model with the Becker-Mulligan (1997) endogenous time preference, this paper reexamines the effects of monetary growth. An increase in the inflation rate reduces the resources spent on imagining the future, which increases the rate of time preference and decreases the steady-state value of capital stock. This model relates inflation and consumer patience, and shows that inflation will make people less patient. Finally, Friedman's optimal monetary growth rule is also investigated and found not to hold.     

Time Preference, Stock Externalities and Strategic Reactions

This paper examines the relationship between the rateof time preference and strategic reactions in dealing with climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Treating climate change as stock externalities, the RICE model (Nordhaus and Yang [1996]) is employed in this paper for simulation studies. The simulation results show that when regions' rate of time preference in evaluating climatechange is sufficiently low, the paths of efficient GHGemission reduction measurement and the inefficient Nash equilibrium outcome are close. The paper also provides general interpretations of such phenomena. Finally, the implications of a low rate of time preference on GHG emission reduction policies are discussed.     

收入、偏好与居民食物安全

本文利用中国营养与健康调查提供的9省区面板数据,采用Probit模型,分析了2004—2009年收入不确定性、偏好对居民食物安全的影响,同时对城乡差异和区域差异进行比较。结果发现:收入不确定性对居民食物安全产生的负面影响要明显强于收入水平提高产生的促进作用;科学、合理的饮食消费习惯有待进一步养成;东部居民食物安全状况要明显好于中西部,城乡居民食物安全水平的差异主要体现在蛋白质摄入的营养需求上;我国总体食物安全框架的重点应该是在保证食物供给能力的基础上,平衡差距。     

资本形成、融资偏好与经济发展

中国企业资本形成的演变经历了计划经济体制下财政主导型模式、转轨体制下银行主导模式和市场经济下多元化阶段。我国的资本形成比率和经济增长率形成了显著的剪刀差,资本-产出比率与经济增长率之间存在着一个显著的负相关关系,而出现这个负相关关系的主要原因是资本的形成对经济增长表现出不敏感。这意味着,缺乏一个有效率的投资体制和金融体系是中国经济未来持续增长的严重制约。     

Preference Evolution,Two-Speed Dynamics,and Rapid Social Change

We present a dynamic analysis of the evolution of preferences in a strategic environment. In our model, each player's behavior depends on both the game's payoffs and his idiosyncratic biases, but only the game's payoffs determine his evolutionary success. Dynamics run at two speeds at once; while natural selection slowly reshapes the distribution of preferences, players quickly learn to behave as their preferences dictate. We establish the existence and uniqueness of the paired trajectories of society's preferences and behavior. While aggregate behavior adjusts smoothly in equilibration games, in coordination games aggregate behavior can jump discretely in an instant of evolutionary time. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73.     

Habit,Decision-Making,and Rationality: Comparing Thorstein Veblen and Early Herbert Simon

The article aims to contribute to the convergence between institutional and neo-Schumpeterian evolutionary economics. It intends to help unify the behavioral foundations of these two strands of thought by returning to the original views of their main historical inspirations. It thus proposes a comparative analysis of the theory of human behavior developed by Thorstein Veblen and Herbert Simon, respectively. The article notably discusses how Simon’s early work links together the notions of habit, rationality, and the decision-making process, and explores the extent to which his views are consistent with, complementary to, or divergent from Veblen’s. The article highlights several commonalities between Simon and Veblen’s views on habits. However, Simon departs from Veblen in developing a dual model of human behavior which clearly differentiates habit-based from decision-based behaviors. The article argues that neo-Schumpeterian evolutionary economists should go beyond this binary model and build on the pragmatist-Veblenian approach, in which these two dimensions are intimately entangled. This process could allow the economists in question to take advantage of the most valuable insights of institutional economics regarding the interactions between individual choices and habits and institutions.     

Sex Preference, Marriage of Heirs and Bequest Behaviour

This paper discusses some economic implications of sex preferences and the bequest behaviour of parents. A simple two-period model with general assumptions is developed. It is shown that a Nash equilibrium does not exist unless constraints are imposed. However, such an equilibrium exists if bequests are non-negative, if bequests to sons and daughters are equal or if preferences are heterogeneous. The model thus explains why such institutional constraints on bequests are observed in the real world, and why in some (developing) countries male children inherit the major wealth from parents. It also has useful implications for the debt neutrality proposition.
JEL Classification Numbers: D1, J12, J13, J16.     

制度效率、家族化途径与家族投资偏好

文章以家族企业投资决策为研究对象,考察了转轨与新兴双重特征下家族控制影响企业投资决策的机理。研究发现,家族控制人的风险规避偏好在投资决策中占主导,家族企业的长期投资规模小于非家族企业,其偏好于实体资本投资而限制高风险的R&D投资活动;家族风险规避偏好的短期投资行为在通过并购重组实现家族控制和职业经理人担任CEO的家族企业中更为显著;较高的制度效率可以减少家族控制人的风险规避动机,促进企业投资活动增加。