The effect of noise in a performance measure on work motivation: A real effort laboratory experiment

This paper reports the results of an individual real effort laboratory experiment where subjects are paid for measured performance. Measured performance equals actual performance plus noise. We compare a stable environment where the noise is small with a volatile environment where the noise is large. Subjects exert significantly more effort in the volatile environment than in the stable environment. This finding is in line with standard agency theory and contrasts the intuitive idea captured by a distinct element of expectancy theory that noisier performance measures would lower work motivation.     

Adjusting to not being "on top": making effective use of transitions

In today's health care environment, it is possible even for the successful health care manager to be fired or demoted. To ensure continued success, the manager must view a termination or demotion as a normal transition of life and find ways to "move on". Given today's volatile environment, anticipatory planning for job loss or job change, which includes attention to continued professional training, visioning changes in health care, and maintaining strong professional contacts, is an imperative.     

When does defection pay?

The present paper investigates cluster adjustment to changing economic environments by focussing on the role and stability of institutional arrangements in their local culture. It postulates two idealtypical local cultures where firms act in the common (collective) or in their own interest (egoistic). By comparing adjustment performance and stability for both types, the model finds that clusters in very volatile environments are unlikely to exhibit collective local cultures as these are unstable and provide only limited benefits for adjustment performance. Clusters facing more stable environments are more likely to show collective local cultures as these increase adjustment performance and are more stable against individual defection. Both findings suggest that collective local cultures in clusters can be relatively stable for limited environment volatility.     

船撞桥风险评估方法概述

船撞桥事故的发生给人们的生命财产带来了严重的损失,而船撞桥风险评估是降低船撞桥风险的重要措施。文章根据风险评估的基本思想,提出了船撞桥风险评估的基本框架,并对已有的船撞桥概率模型、后果模型和风险准则的优缺点进行了分析总结,为船撞桥风险评估及桥梁防撞设计提供了思路和方法。     

Cognitive Inertia in a Turbulent Market: the Case of UK Residential Estate Agents

Recently, a number of researchers seeking to develop cognitive approaches for understanding processes associated with the development and implementation of competitive positioning strategies have drawn attention to the notion of ‘cognitive inertia’. Once established, there is a danger that actors may become overly dependent on their mental models of competitive space, to the extent that they fail to notice changes in the material conditions of their business environment, until these changes have become so widespread, or significant in other ways, that their organization's capacity for successful adaptation has been seriously undermined. While there have been several anecdotal accounts of cognitive inertia reported in the literature, and a number of researchers have explored processes of cognitive change in organizations more generally, to date there have been virtually no studies published which have investigated this phenomenon specifically within the domain of competitor assessment. This paper reports one such investigation, a longitudinal field study which explored the extent to which actors' mental models of competitive space in the UK residential estate agency (real estate) industry, an industry characterized by high volatility in recent years, remained stable or changed over time. An initial sample of 208 respondents from 58 firms completed detailed questionnaires at the onset of the recent recession in the UK property market. The questionnaires were designed to elicit the respondents' perceptions of their own organization and various competitors on a number of key dimensions. A sub-sample of 114 respondents from 41 firms returned a further set of completed questionnaires, 12 to 18 months later, when the recession had become deeply established. The findings are entirely consistent with the cognitive inertia hypothesis. The results indicate that the respondents' individual and collective cognitions remained highly stable, despite a significant down-turn in the property market from T1 to T2.     

Measuring financial risk and portfolio reversion with time changed tempered stable Lévy processes

Given that underlying assets in financial markets exhibit stylized facts such as leptokurtosis, asymmetry, clustering properties and heteroskedasticity effect, this paper applies the stochastic volatility models driven by tempered stable Lévy processes to construct time changed tempered stable Lévy processes (TSSV) for financial risk measurement and portfolio reversion. The TSSV model framework permits infinite activity jump behaviors of returns dynamics and time varying volatility consistently observed in financial markets by introducing time changing volatility into tempered stable processes which specially refer to normal tempered stable (NTS) distribution as well as classical tempered stable (CTS) distribution, capturing leptokurtosis, fat tailedness and asymmetry features of returns in addition to volatility clustering effect in stochastic volatility. Through employing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique, the closed form formulas for probability density function (PDF) of returns, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) can be derived. Finally, in order to forecast extreme events and volatile market, we perform empirical researches on Hangseng index to measure risks and construct portfolio based on risk adjusted reward risk stock selection criteria employing TSSV models, with the stochastic volatility normal tempered stable (NTSSV) model producing superior performances relative to others.     

Multilateral negotiations and formation of coalitions

This paper analyses properties of games modeling multilateral negotiations leading to the formation of coalitions in an environment with widespread externalities. The payoff generated by each coalition is determined by an exogenous partition function (the parameter space). We show that in almost all games, except in a set of measure zero of the parameter space, the Markov perfect equilibrium value of coalitions and the state transition probability that describe the path of coalition formation is locally unique and stable. Therefore, comparative statics analysis are well-defined and can be performed using standard calculus tools. Global uniqueness does not hold in general, but the number of equilibria is finite and odd. In addition, a sufficient condition for global uniqueness is derived, and using this sufficient condition we show that there is a globally unique equilibrium in three-player superadditive games.     

制动器机电混合惯量的数学模型

通过机械惯量模拟与电惯量模拟的优缺点比较阐述了机电混合惯量模拟的优越性。根据依赖于可观测量的电流计算方法,提出了带有反馈信息的动态驱动补偿模型,并对该模型进行了离散和连续的能量误差分析来衡量模拟的可信度,同时还提供了拟合精度的评价方法。本建立的是一个从观测、电惯量的动态补偿直到模拟效果的相对能量误差分析的全面系统模型,对实践有积极的指导作用。     

定曲河正斗水电站工程水土保持设计

文章通过对定曲河正斗水电站工程概况和自然环境的分析,论述了水电站工程水土流失特性,提出切实可行的水土保持措施,为减少水土流失、保护生态环境提供科学依据。     

Availability of Mortgage Loans in Volatile Real Estate Markets

This paper presents a default model for mortgages on single-family houses implying a higher probability of negative equity and thus default in real estate markets with high price volatility. Mortgage lenders compensate for the increased default probability in volatile markets by demanding higher downpayments or increased creditworthiness of loan applicants, thus making mortgage loans more difficult to obtain. An empirical analysis finds greatly varying price volatility in single-family real estate markets in a sample of 42 cities. Consistent with the implications of the model, the empirical analysis finds that the fraction of low-downpayment loans declines in volatile markets.     

An experimental investigation of insurance decisions in low probability and high loss risk situations

This experimental study investigates insurance decisions in low-probability, high-loss risk situations. Results indicate that subjects consider the probability of loss (loss size) when they make buying decisions (paying decisions). Most individuals are risk averse with no specific threshold probability.     

Benchmarking,knowledge inertia,and knowledge performance in different network structures

ABSTRACT

A simulation approach is employed to examine the relationship between benchmarking and OKP, and how knowledge inertia in benchmarking influences OKP in different network structures. Results suggest that quick benchmarking (low knowledge inertia) and moderate mutual learning produce higher short-term OKP. Slow benchmarking (high knowledge inertia) and moderate mutual learning achieve higher long-term OKP. OKP performs better in scale-free networks than in small-world networks in the short period. However, in the long period, OKP is higher in small-world networks. Findings guide managers’ efforts in choosing the most suitable benchmarking and also suggest that managers should not ignore knowledge inertia.     

Building a Strong Foothold in an Emerging Market: A Link Between Resource Commitment and Environment Conditions*

ABSTRACT This study examines how MNEs align resource commitment with environmental conditions (challenges and opportunities) when they invest in a foreign emerging market. MNEs often face a dilemma in allocating resources to this environment: without this commitment, they cannot build a strong competitive foothold; yet with over‐commitment, there is excessive economic exposure. Our analysis of MNEs in a major emerging market suggests that resource commitment is an inverse function of market uncertainty and this inverse link is stronger for less strategically proactive MNEs. Resource commitment is also an increasing function of market opportunities and this function is stronger for firms emphasizing demand‐side (as opposed to cost‐side) gains. In addition, in a highly volatile industry, resource commitment is negatively associated with cultural distance, but in a relatively stable industry, it is positively associated with cultural distance. And finally, as foreign subsidiaries become older, the influence of cultural distance on resource commitment is weakened.     

国际环境变化对纺织品企业出口的影响

面对复杂多变的国际环境,如何保持纺织品出口平稳较快增长成为热点问题。本文分析了企业存在的成本上升,自主生产性不强,信息渠道不畅,对贸易摩擦缺乏防范等问题;提出了应对策略——维护原有出口市场,努力开拓多元出口市场,大力实施品牌战略,加强纺织品协会的作用,重视出口信用保险,大力推进走出去战略等措施。     

中国营商环境综合发展水平的测度、地区差异与动态演变研究

研究目标:构建营商环境综合发展水平评价指标体系,以此揭示中国营商环境综合发展水平的地区差异及动态演变规律。研究方法:熵权法、整体与维度分析法、核密度估计法、Dagum基尼系数、全局和局部莫兰指数、Markov链转移概率矩阵。研究发现:2008～2018年中国营商环境综合发展水平整体处于优化上升趋势,但优化进程较慢,内部指标发展不均衡,发展水平等级转移乏力;四大地区存在明显的空间非均衡分布特征,发展水平较好为东部地区;东北地区先后被中西部地区超越;中国营商环境综合发展水平存在绝对差异和相对差异,其中绝对差异在扩大,而相对差异总体上在缩小,地区间差异是造成中国营商环境综合发展水平空间非均衡的主要原因;中国营商环境综合发展水平存在显著的空间正相关关系,不同类型的集聚模式较为稳定。研究创新:基于营商开展环境和营商生活环境两个维度构建中国营商环境综合发展水平指标体系,分别从整体、分维度、绝对差异、相对差异、空间相关性和等级转移概率等角度全面分析中国营商环境综合发展水平的地区差异以及动态演变趋势。研究价值:从营商开展环境和营商生活环境两个角度评估中国营商环境存在的现状问题,为未来进一步优化营商环境...     

More reforms,less innovation? The impact of structural reform histories on innovation-oriented cultures in public organizations

The environments of public organizations have become substantially volatile due to economic and societal changes, requiring organizations to continuously adapt and to develop an innovation-oriented culture. In response to the multitude of challenges posed by this volatile environment, politicians in inter alia the executive and parliament impose structural reforms upon public organizations, implying that these organizations might be confronted with a series of structural reforms over their lifetime. This paper advances that a history of repeated and frequent structural reforms, irrespective of the underlying drivers of these reforms, has a negative effect on the innovation-orientedness of the organizational culture. We explore the link between an organization’s history of structural reforms and the degree to which the culture within these organizations is innovation-oriented. Results indicate that organizational turmoil generated by repeated structural reforms reduces innovativeness and suggest that too many structural reforms imposed in a too short time span will have detrimental side effects.     

Inferring trader behavior from transaction data: A trade count model

We present a model that uses trade counts to infer the arrival of private news and the probability of informed trading (PIN). Although similar in approach, our model avoids problems with factor-driven biases and standard errors associated with estimating the buy-sell model of Easley et al. (1996). In particular, tests using the probability of informed trading may suffer from spurious correlations between the Easley et al. (1996) PIN and firm or market characteristics. Results for our model suggest that trade counts, independent of trade direction, are able to capture important features of a firm’s information environment. (JEL C51, D82)     

对象I/O技术的模拟实现

C++对象是存活于内存中的,但是由于RAM的易失性,需要将存活于内存中的对象,通过I/O技术及时地交换到外存中,以保证对象的持久存在(对象I/O技术也称为对象的持久化,即Persistence),所以对象I/O技术也成了C++中的一个重要操作。对象I/O技术的实现需要为对象增加一些额外的运行时信息,即RTTI,技术上的复杂性增加了开发人员所理解对象I/O的难度。本文通过对一个对象I/O技术的模拟实现,深入探讨了对象I/O技术的实现机制。     

Historicizing Urban Sustainability: The Shifting Ideals Behind Forus Industrial Park,Norway

Urban sustainability interventions must always contend with the built environment––the historically accumulated materialization of previous rounds of city building. In this article we argue for a historicized perspective on urban sustainability that allows us to consider how ideals of the past, materialized in the urban built environment, constrain current sustainability interventions. Drawing on the policy mobility literature, science and technology studies, and assemblage thinking, we examine the recursive relationship between mobile ideas on the one hand and urban materiality on the other. Empirically we analyse the historical development of Forus Industrial Park in Stavanger, Norway, and current attempts to transform this into a compact, ‘post‐fossil’ space. We focus on two phases: the late 1960s, following the discovery of oil, when Forus started developing into the core oil cluster in Norway, drawing on ideals from Houston and Milton Keynes; and the current preoccupation with sustainable mobility and density, drawing on ideals from compact European cities like Copenhagen. We show how the inertia of the built environment exercises a form of distributed agency constraining interventions towards sustainable urbanism. Therefore, we argue, truly powerful interventions in urban sustainability are those that effectively reconfigure and retrofit, and reassemble existing materialities into new formations.     

Co-evolutionary Dynamics Within and Between Firms: From Evolution to Co-evolution

abstract The extensive selection–adaptation literature spans diverse theoretical perspectives, but is inconclusive on the role of managerial intentionality in organizational adaptation. Indeed this voluminous literature has more to say about selection and sources and causes of structural inertia than about self‐renewing organizations that might counteract such inertia. In this introductory essay, we identify four co‐evolutionary generative mechanisms (engines) – naïve selection, managed selection, hierarchical renewal and holistic renewal – which illustrate the extensive range of evolutionary paths that can take place in a population of organizations. In particular, the managed selection engine provides the foundations of the underlying principles of co‐evolving self‐renewing organizations: managing internal rates of change, optimizing self‐organization, and balancing concurrent exploration and exploitation. However, it is altogether clear that empirical co‐evolution research represents the next frontier for empirically resolving the adaptation selection debate. The essay concludes with a discussion of requirements for co‐evolutionary empirical research and introduces the empirical papers in this Special Research Symposium.