东亚垂直专业化分工的发展及其影响因素的实证研究

垂直专业化分工是促进东亚区域内贸易发展的重要因素。本文以Hummels等(2001)的方法为基础,计算了1995年和2001年东亚十国(地区)的总体垂直专业化分工程度和各经济体所有产业的垂直专业化指数,并对相关的影响因素进行了检验。结果表明,各经济体间要素禀赋的差异、行业规模程度和关税壁垒是影响垂直专业化分工在东亚发展的重要因素。东亚的垂直专业化分工对区域内部关税率的反应弹性高于对区域外部关税率的反应弹性,这是东亚地区在促进垂直专业化分工方面的区位优势作用的结果。     

雾霾治理影响外资流入吗?:来自中国城市层面的经验证据

文章基于2009～2019年中国279个地级及以上城市面板数据，利用政府工作报告文本信息构建雾霾治理指标，使用双向固定效应模型实证检验了雾霾治理对外资流入的影响。研究发现：雾霾治理对外资流入具有显著促进作用；机制检验发现，雾霾治理主要通过缓解空气污染、提升产业结构高级化促进外资流入；异质性分析发现，雾霾治理对外资流入的促进作用主要发生在中国东部和中部地区的非资源型城市以及资源成熟型、资源衰退型城市；进一步研究发现，雾霾治理对周边城市外资流入具有明显的正向空间溢出效应，外资流入的增加部分来源于高技术制造业。文章拓展了外商投资区位选择理论的研究边界，为地方政府环境政策制定与合理引进外资提供了现实参考。     

中国“双向投资”的结构:阶段检验与发展趋势

伴随着经济发展水平的提高,中国"双向投资"的结构发生着阶段性变化。经历了较长期外资流入增幅高于对外投资增幅后,当前中国"双向投资"的结构呈现出对外投资增幅超过外资流入增幅的变化趋势。进一步分析表明,一系列因素正在促使和强化这种趋势的进一步发展。在继续强化外资集聚能力建设的同时,中国应不断提高企业对外投资能力,努力为企业"走出去"提供各项有效的政策与法律支持。     

中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力分析——基于BOP和FATS统计的分析

本文选择了中国等18个经济体,对跨境交付和商业存在两种模式下中国金融服务贸易的国际竞争力进行了比较分析,主要结论是:1.关于跨境交付的金融服务贸易,中国的竞争力非常差,处于18个经济体的最后一名;2.关于商业存在模式下的金融服务贸易,不论是与东亚经济体相比,还是与"金砖四国"的其他成员相比,中国的金融业都具备了较强的竞争力,但与发达经济体相比,还存在不小差距。最后,根据实证分析的结论,提出了提升中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力的对策。     

跨境资本流动与中国商业银行信贷投放——基于银行竞争视角的实证研究

跨境资本流动对中国银行系统的冲击是外部因素传导至国内金融稳定和经济运行的重要渠道。本文基于我国商业银行微观数据,深入考察了跨境资本流动对商业银行信贷规模、风险和结构的影响,并通过构建个体层面的银行竞争指数,探讨了银行竞争对资本流动与银行信贷间的作用关系的影响。实证研究表明,跨境资本流入会带来银行信贷规模扩张和信贷风险积累;在机制分析中,本文创新性地引入了银行竞争这一调节因素,实证结果表明银行竞争会强化资本流入对银行信贷规模和信贷风险的影响;对信贷结构的进一步研究发现,资本流入会使投向企业部门尤其是制造业的信贷规模显著增加,对居民部门贷款则存在挤出效应;外资背景、是否上市、是否为系统重要性银行等银行个体层面的异质性会作用于商业银行信贷对资本流动冲击的反应。     

垂直专业化分工与中国对东亚经济体的贸易逆差——兼及中国对美国贸易顺差的比较分析

在对欧美贸易顺差不断扩大的同时,中国对东亚经济体的贸易逆差也在不断扩大。本文在概述中国对东亚经济体贸易逆差的客观现实的基础上,从垂直专业化分工的角度对贸易逆差的形成原因进行了剖析。中美之间在产品价值链上没有直接的前向联系,中国对美国的贸易顺差主要源于产业间分工不同,中国对东亚经济体的贸易逆差主要源于垂直专业化分工。中国在东亚垂直专业化分工体系中处于产品制造环节的末端,从东亚其他经济体进口大量上游环节的中间品导致了中国对东亚经济体的贸易逆差。     

外国直接投资与中国出口贸易结构优化

本文通过对FDI流入中国的产业结构特征与出口贸易结构变化分析后发现:FDI流入产业分布结构与出口产业分布存在"重叠性"特征,外资企业出口结构与中国总体出口结构变动趋势大致同步,个别年份存在差异性.协整分析表明,外国直接投资对制成品出口的促进作用明显大于对初级产品出口的促进作用,这说明外资对中国出口结构的优化作用主要是通过促进工业制成品出口来实现的.     

FDl对我国出口贸易方式影响的统计分析

随着经济全球化逐渐加强,国际贸易和FDI作为一个开放型国家参与国际分工的重要手段飞速发展。中国加入WTO以后,FDI流入和国际贸易都增长迅速,中国已成为世界第一出口大国和最大的外资流入国,论文选取中国2002年到2010年的FDI和出口贸易的数据,统计分析FDI对我国出口贸易方式的影响。结果表明,外资促进了中国出口贸易,使得中国高技术产品出口增长迅速,并带动内资出口;并且随着中国这样的新兴经济体国际地位提升,外资更加注重研发投入,促进我国附加值更高的一般贸易出口,并带动我国内资自主创新。     

中国与东亚主要国家和地区间的比较优势与贸易互补性

东亚经济贸易关系的加强将对中国经济产生影响。为了分析这一影响 ,必须对中国与东亚主要国家和地区的贸易模式进行比较。本文利用东亚主要国家和地区的进出口数据测算了1 980年至 1 997年中国与其他主要东亚经济体之间的行业比较优势和贸易互补性。结果表明 :中国的出口与印度尼西亚、韩国、泰国、新加坡、马来西亚和中国台湾的进口之间互补性较小 ,而中国的进口与中国台湾、韩国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国的出口之间具有较强的互补性 ,因此与上述经济体合作关系的加强有可能导致中国贸易顺差的减少。中国与日本之间的贸易无论在出口还是在进口上均具有互补性 ,对日经济关系的加强有利于中日两国更好地发挥现有的比较优势。     

中国在东亚－美国贸易链中的地位分析

随着经济全球化的发展，东亚与美国的贸易往来日益密切。中国作为东亚经济体的主要一员，在东亚-美国贸易链中发挥着重要的作用，正是中国这个巨大的市场把美亚贸易链顺利地连接起来。本文分析了近几年来中国对东亚主要经济体的贸易逆差和对美国的贸易顺差情况，同时对从东亚主要经济体进口的商品结构和对美国出口的商品结构进行了分析总结，得出了中国在东亚-美国贸易链中处于中低端的位置，最后指出中国向东亚国家进行产业转移和市场转移，减少对美国市场的依赖，从而提升中国在美亚贸易链中的地位。     

Foreign capital flows and economic growth in East Asian countries

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the effect of various types of capital flow on the growth process of the East Asian countries, including China. The empirical analysis was based on dynamic panel data and we found; first, that domestic savings contribute positively to long-term economic growth. Second, we confirmed that FDI is growth enhancing and that its impact is felt both in the short and long run. Additionally, FDI influence on growth is much higher than domestic savings. Third, short-term capital inflow has adverse effect on the long-term as well as short-term growth prospects and it appears to be sensitive to long-term capital inflows. Fourth, long-term debt has positive effect on growth but its effect does somewhat disappear in the long-term. By and large, the observed positive contribution of FDI in the growth process of East Asian economies is a robust finding. From policy perspective, the evidence convincingly suggests that countries that are successful in attracting FDI can finance more investments and grow faster than those that deter FDI.     

Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia

This study aims to analyze how sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South and East Asian economies respond to changes in the business cycles of the host countries, as measured by their output gaps. We focus on 15 economies during the period 1980–2011 and examine inflows of FDI in extractive industries, manufacturing and services in addition to aggregate FDI by using a dynamic panel Blundell–Bond GMM methodology. We find evidence of countercyclical behavior of services FDI and acyclical behavior of both extractive industries FDI and manufacturing FDI. The coutercyclical behavior of services FDI in South and East Asia has important policy implications.     

FDI流入对中国出口品技术结构变化的影响——一个动态面板数据分析

本文在理论考量的基础上,依据2002～2008年间中国不同技术类型的出口品数据,通过动态面板数据模型,针对中国FDI实际流入总量及分国别FDI流入量对中国出口品技术结构变化的影响进行了实证分析,并根据实证结果对流入中国的FDI的主要类型进行了判断。经分析发现,在样本期间,FDI能够有效地促进中国出口品技术结构的多样化,但对出口品技术结构的优化作用并不理想。其中,来自亚洲四小龙、中国澳门和日本的FDI对出口品技术结构存在较大影响,这在一定程度上反映了现有东亚分工体系对中国的影响;可以判断,当前流入中国的FDI主要是垂直型和出口平台型。基于此,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

Foreign direct investment and growth in East Asia: lessons for Indonesia

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been important in the growth and global integration of developing economies. Both Northeast and Southeast Asia, especially the latter, have been part of this development, with increasing inflows of FDI and greater foreign participation in local economies. However, Indonesia has been an outlier within the region. Inflows of FDI have been lower to Indonesia than to other countries, especially in manufacturing, and they have been lower than could be expected from Indonesia's size, population and other country characteristics. We show that the inflows that have occurred have benefited Indonesia, and use the East Asian experience to identify measures that are likely to increase these flows. A relatively poor business environment, inefficient government institutions, low levels of education and poor infrastructure all seem to be important explanations for the low inflows of FDI to Indonesia.     

Welfare implications of international financial integration

Focusing on technology spillover from foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, this paper investigates the welfare implications of financial integration. Calibrations of a neoclassical growth model with international technology diffusion show that when technology catch-up due to FDI inflows is considered, the welfare gains from financial integration substantially increase, which contrasts with the small gains from additional, capital-accumulation effects of financial integration. The estimates suggest that by further enhancing financial integration, emerging Asian economies, such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the largest four Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, will experience substantial welfare gains.     

China–Japan–United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Using a global general equilibrium trade model, this paper assesses the long-term implications of global rebalancing for Asian economies and explores the benefits of China–Japan–United States (US) integration. The analysis suggests that consumption evaporation, a growth slowdown in the US, and the consequent current account correction would force China, Japan, and other East Asian economies to undergo substantial structural adjustments. A combination of domestic reform aimed at boosting service sector productivity and external liberalization aimed at fostering broader economic integration will be critical for East Asian economies to facilitate their economic rebalancing and sustained growth. Our global computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis suggests that China and Japan need to strengthen their economic ties with the US while at the same time bringing other East Asian economies into this integration process.     

Has China Crowded out Foreign Direct Investment from Its Developing East Asian Neighbors？

This paper applies a gravity model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in East Asia. Economic fundamentals, such as market size, per capita income and country risk indicators, economic and cultural ties, exchange rate volatilities and information asymmetry are found to be important determinants for FDI. Globally, the inward FDI among high-income OECD economies declined significantly on average over the period of 1990-2003, whereas the inward FDI of the high-income OECD economies in emerging market economies gained substantially. In the East Asian region, the ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) received above-average inward FDI from the high-income OECD economies after controlling for their economic fundamentals. By contrast, China's FDI from the high-income OECD economies is below average relative to its economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is difficult to establish that China has crowded out FDI from its developing ASEAN neighbors.     

Investigation of the “China effect” on crowding out of Japanese FDI: An industry-level analysis (1990–2004)

This paper applies a dynamic panel model to investigate whether China is crowding out Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) from other economies of Asia. We examined this with industry-level data on Japanese FDI flows into Asian economies. In order to deal with possible problems of serial correlation and endogeneity, we estimated coefficients using a difference and system generalized method of moments to examine the “China effect” on industries. We found a significantly high degree of crowding out effect by China on its Asian counterparts. Among twelve industries, a crowding out effect was found in nine industries, including electrical &; electronics—the biggest industry for Japanese FDI. However, a complementary effect was found in two industries, one of them being transport, which is the second biggest industry for Japanese FDI. We conclude that while China's rise is a prominent threat for the region, it could be transformed into an opportunity in vertically fragmented industries.     

A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors

This paper analyzes one of the features of the Chinese economic transition, namely, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) accruing to advanced services sectors. To that aim we use an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes, in a multi-regional setting, foreign multinationals operating in monopolistic competition. The model is based on data that split the world economy in 2016 into 11 regions (China - US - EU27 - Great Britain -other advanced economies - India - Japan - South East Asia - Latin America - Middle East - Sub Saharan Africa) and 21 sectors. We provide quantitative evidence on several characteristics of the 21 sectors in China, EU27 and the US, as well as other data on the role of China in the global stage, including its evolution since 2004. Several scenarios focusing on the increase of FDI inflows in services, because of the reduction of its FDI barriers, are simulated deriving short and long run results. We find that the impact of more foreign multinationals in services is positive for China but smaller than the one that had been obtained in other previous studies on FDI in manufactures. This is due to the still limited role of services in the Chinese economy and to a crowding out effect that domestic firms experience after the entry of foreign multinationals. On the whole the impact is, however, slightly positive for China, because manufactures benefit from the entry of foreign services multinationals. The rest of regions are unaffected or benefit very slightly, due to the fact that services production is less export oriented and more devoted to private consumption than in the case of manufactures. However, their manufacturing sectors are slightly harmed by the stronger Chinese competition. Many of them manage to more than offset this latter trend through higher exports or FDI in services directed to China.     

Foreign Investment in East Asia: A Survey

This article updates the May 1989 literature survey on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the East Asian region published in this journal. Following an overview of trends of FDI in the 1990s, it focuses on three key issues: the impact of the recent Asian economic crisis on FDI inflow relative to other forms of capital inflows; the link between FDI and trade; and technology transfer and adaptation. It is too early to discern the implications of the crisis for host-country policies and investment decisions of multinational corporations, but the indications are that FDI will continue to play a pivotal role in economic transformation, and in regional and global economic integration.