Determinants of Entry in Turkish Manufacturing Industries

The entry of new firms into markets plays an important role in efficient resource allocation and evolution for long term economic growth. Employing dynamic panel data techniques, this paper investigates entry behavior in 66 four-digit Turkish manufacturing industries for the 1993–1999 period. The results of this paper suggest that potential entrants observe the market before the entry takes place; entry is, in general, a follow-up process; and incumbent firms seem to collude to prevent entry in Turkish manufacturing industries. In addition, the real interest rate appears to be a very important determinant of entry decision.     

中国出口企业的“生产率悖论”与“生产率陷阱”——基于2008年中国制造业企业数据实证分析

在Melitz提出从企业异质性角度分析生产率对出口影响以后,国内学者运用实证检验认为我国制造业企业出口存在"生产率悖论"即出口企业的生产率低于未出口企业,也检验得出出口企业存在"生产率陷阱",即出口对企业生产率具有阻碍作用。本文首先提出一个数理模型研究企业出口与生产率的相互联系,再运用2008年中国工业企业数据库实证检验"生产率悖论"与"生产率陷阱",并讨论它们存在的原因,为了使结论更加可靠,本文对出口企业与国内企业分别进行了全国、分行业、分省份的实证检验。最后在模型分析与实证检验的基础上提出我国出口制造业企业走出"生产率陷阱"的途径。     

‘Entry Thresholds and Actual Entry and Exit in Local Markets’

Bresnahan and Reiss (1991) derive entry thresholds for local markets but do not investigate actual entry and exit flows. This paper investigates for thirteen Belgian retail and consumer service industries whether markets with actual numbers of firms higher (lower) than the thresholds display exit (entry) in subsequent periods. The results confirm that over a three-year period the rate of (net) entry is positively affected by the presence of ‘market room’. The exit rate, however, does not show a negative relation with ‘market room’.      

Business Survival and the Decision to Exit

The decision to exit is examined for a cohort of over 12,000 plants established in 1976. Using a longitudinal data base, the performance of the establishments is analysed over the subsequent 10 years. The empirical evidence suggests that start-up size, ownership status, and the industry environment affect the likelihood of a start -up subsequently exiting. Plants with more employees during the start -up year are found to have a lower likelihood of exit than do smaller plants. Similarly, establishnwnts which are independent are found to have a lower likelihood of exit within the following years than do newly created establishments belonging to a multi-plant firm. However, the determinants of exit apparently vary along with the age of the establishment. Innovative activity is found to raise the likelihood of establishment exit in the short run but lower it in the longer run.     

我国出口企业的“生产率悖论”及其解释

本文用1998-2007年的中国工业企业数据,选取近300万家企业,分20个行业检验了我国企业出口与生产率的关系,结果显示:只供应国内市场的企业生产率反而高于出口企业;并且企业出口与生产率呈现负相关关系,即生产率越低的企业出口越多。此结论与新-新贸易理论的结论相悖,我们称之为生产率悖论。进一步检验还发现,企业规模是影响出口的主要因素,而出口贸易对于企业生产率的影响是不显著的。笔者认为,导致我国出口企业出现生产率悖论的原因可能在于我国加工贸易较多,且占据了出口贸易的主体。     

出口与企业绩效:主要论题与最新进展

异质性企业贸易模型将企业的异质特征作为研究变量,加之企业层面数据的日益丰富和可用性,使对国际贸易问题的研究由宏观产业层面转向更加微观的企业层面。本文以企业异质性为焦点,对近年来大量关于出口与企业绩效之间关系的理论研究和实证研究的文献进行系统梳理,厘清了出口与企业绩效之间的因果关系,并做出简要评述。     

The Determinants of Firm Exit in Japanese Manufacturing Industries

This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of firm exits that occurred in Japanese manufacturing industries over the period 1981--1989. Gross-number measure is used for exits. Many structural factors have exerted a definite influence on the extent of exit; across industries, capital intensity and subcontracting relationships have an exit-promoting effect, while profits, industry growth, concentration, and R&D opportunity have a negative relationship with exit. In addition, the minimum efficient size has an inverted-U-shaped relationship. However, export opportunity has only a marginal effect. These results are likely to reflect exits of small business.     

Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity

This paper provides evidence on the monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous productivity. We show that this model has a well-defined GDP function where relative export variety enters positively, and estimate this function over 48 countries from 1980 to 2000. Average export variety to the United States increases by 3.3% per year, so it nearly doubles over these two decades. The total increase in export variety is associated with a 3.3% average productivity improvement for exporters over the two decades. Overall, the model can explain 31% of the within-country variation in productivity (or 52% for the OECD countries), but only a very small fraction of the between-country variation in productivity.     

企业出口影响因素的研究述评——基于异质性企业贸易理论的视角

通过对国际贸易理论发展脉络进行梳理,从生产率、创新、汇率和贸易政策等四个方面归纳了关于企业出口影响因素的实证研究,针对大量实证研究进行了述评,指出中国的主要研究方向,以及对中国经济贸易政策制定的重大意义。     

The Convergence of Labour Productivity in British and German Industries

When a Galtonian cross-section regression model is used to analyse data on the relative labour productivity of 30 British and German manufacturing industries 1960-1989, it is found that there are strong tendencies for labour productivity in the two countries to converge. This is particularly true for 1960-73 and for 1979-89, when there was Galtonian regression towards the (geometric) mean level of relative productivity. There was no tendency for the relative advantage or disadvantage of an industry to persist over time. When an errors-in-variables model is used, it is found that reverse regression and lagged value instrumental variable estimators do not indicate that the OLS estimators in the Galtonian model are usually biased downwards and in fact confirm the direction of the Galtonian regression.     

The Determinants of and Interaction between Entry and Exit in Taiwan's Manufacturing

Based upon substantial high firm turnover rates, various policy incentives, and developed subcontracting-networks, this paper investigates structure and firm-specific factors that determine the entry and exit rate across industries. The interaction between entry and exit rates of the industry is incorporated in the study, namely the "displacement", "replacement" and "instantaneous causal" effects. The regression results indicate that entry and exit rates are determined by different measures of entry or exit barriers but the effects are not fully symmetric. It is also evident that underlying entry or exit sunk- costs introduced the instantaneous movement of entry and exit rates. In addition, the entry of new plants has a moderate effect to facilitate the displacement or market selection process to displace the inefficient producers but no significant replacement effect is found. The policy implication being that the government support encourages entry it also increases the industry failure rates.     

中国制造业物流外包的生产率效应分析

文章利用1997、2002、2007年投入产出表对我国28个制造业行业的物流外包率进行计算,以面板数据模型对我国制造业物流外包生产率效应进行实证检验,探讨技术进步对制造业物流外包生产率增长效应及外包行为的影响.研究结果表明,物流外包对制造业生产率的总效应为负,带来的是资本节约型技术进步及中性的技术退步;劳动密集型和高技术行业的生产率受物流外包的负向影响小于资本密集型和低技术行业;制造业技术进步促进了物流外包的生产率效应,同时技术进步减少了大规模行业的物流外包,其主要是通过改变内外部成本结构,扩大了大型企业的边界.     

浙江省外贸出口的特点、问题与对策

改革开放以来,浙江的外贸出口迅猛增长,成为我国外贸出口大省。通过归纳浙江的外贸出口在商品结构、市场结构、贸易方式和经营主体等方面的特点,分析当前存在的一些问题和困难,提出持续发展的对策。     

出口专业化、空间依赖与我国地区经济增长

基于我国222个地级以上城市2001-2008年期间的样本数据,本文实证检验了出口结构与地区人均GDP增长率之间的关系。结果显示,出口集中度与地区经济增长之间存在显著正相关性,出口结构的专业化程度越高,地区人均GDP增长率相应越高。无论是采用经典OLS方法,还是采用控制空间依赖性的空间计量分析方法,这一结果均成立,其背后机制在于专业化导致生产活动的集聚,通过集聚经济提高生产率,从而促进人均产出的提高。本文政策含义在于,在当前发展阶段下,促进地区产业的集群化、专业化发展,充分发挥集聚经济,这对于扩大出口规模、推动地区经济增长具有积极意义。     

反向服务外包对我国生产率的影响——生产性服务业的实证分析

本文在服务外包的背景下,在生产性服务业中定量分析了反向服务外包对我国生产率的影响。数据样本选择2004-2009年18个行业的面板数据,并利用2002年和2007年的投入产出表定量计算了我国生产性服务投入以及反向服务外包和当地服务外包的规模。本文的结论是:由于我国服务外包尚处于初级阶段且规模较低,因此反向服务外包对我国生产率产生了负向影响,同时本文也证明了反向服务外包对未来生产率的负向影响会逐渐减少,甚至可能为正;反向服务外包的变化对未来生产率变化的影响为正,因此扩大其规模有助于降低目前的负向影响。同时,本文也得到了行业层面的结论,这些结论有助于我国进一步发展服务外包。     

Managerial Firms,Entry, and Switching Costs

Empirical evidence shows that switching costs are important in many industries. We analyze the welfare effects of entry into markets with switching costs when firms can be run by managers and the entrant may be partially foreign-owned. We find that with profit-maximizing firms, the welfare effect of entry depends crucially on the ownership of the entrant firm. We also show that entry is less likely with managerial firms than it is with profit-maximizing firms. In the latter case, entry always reduces welfare if the share of the entrant firm owned by foreign investors is high. However, with managerial firms, entry always increases welfare.     

许可证制、进入壁垒与北京市土地经济绩效

本文指出,土地出让制度是一种许可证制,是由政府创造的一种进入壁垒.以协议出让为主的土地出让制度不仅导致了垄断,而且还导致了严重的"圈地运动"和寻租行为.因此,对土地市场而言,一方面要反垄断,改协议出让为拍卖出让,使许可证竞争;另一方面要鼓励竞争,使大的土地开发项目拆分为众多小的土地开发项目.     

出口、集聚与全要素生产率增长——基于制造业行业面板数据的实证研究

运用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算了2000-2007年我国制造业28个行业的全要素生产率(TFP)及其分解指标,并将出口、集聚与TFP放在统一的框架下分析出口与集聚对TFP及其分解指标的影响。研究发现,制造业TFP年均增长4.3%,其中90%以上是由技术进步贡献的;行业之间的技术进步差距较小,技术效率变化差异较大,而后者是TFP增长差异的主要原因。出口和集聚的相互作用削弱了对TFP增长的影响,即便如此,出口仍显著促进了TFP增长,集聚对TFP及其分解指标均有明显的正向影响。市场化程度是制造业TFP增长和技术进步的最主要影响因素。     

出口贸易与全要素生产率增长的动态效应分析——基于中国省际面板数据的角度

大量的研究表明,出口贸易通过出口学习效应、出口溢出效应、出口规模效应和出口竞争效应促进了生产率的发展。我国省际面板数据的动态实证研究表明,出口量的增长不能促进我国全要素生产率的发展;人力资本和研发活动作为衡量一国吸收能力的指标,是发挥出口—生产率效应的关键因素;我国鼓励出口政策和引进外资政策的实施,使得出口—生产率效应具有明显的区域色彩。     

跨国零售商进入与中国消费品制造业绩效

基于零售商产业链地位日益增强的背景,提出有关跨国零售商对中国上游消费品制造业绩效影响的相关假说,进而利用中国省级区域消费品制造业2002-2010年的面板数据进行实证检验.结果表明,跨国零售商绩效因素对各消费品制造业产生了积极的正向溢出效应,但是其受跨国零售商数量的影响而存在差异,其中食品制造业绩效随跨国零售商数量增加而提高,但纺织品制造业绩效与跨国零售商数量呈显著负相关关系,其是遭受利益侵害风险最大的行业.