The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal

Within only a few years, the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has emerged as a potential rival to the Mundell-Fleming framework, as modified by Dornbusch and others in the 1980s and 1990s using linear-quadratic models, as the dominant analytical framework in the study of open economies. This paper reviews some of the main developments in this literature. It offers a critical appraisal of its contributions to date and discusses potential pitfalls of taking a pure NOEM approach by dismissing work not based in explicit utility maximization as ad hoc. The paper proposes broadening the NOEM literature to include consideration of heterogeneities within and across open economies. In light of the complexities involved in modeling heterogeneous agents or structures, the field of open economy macroeconomics may stand to gain from the pursuit of an impure NOEM. Work along these lines would de-emphasize dynamics, general equilibrium, and explicit optimization in favor of a focus on the true innovation of the NOEM literature, which has been highlighting the crucial importance of accounting for imperfect competition and price and wage rigidities in macroeconomic theories of open economies.     

Chaotic Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux

This article generalizes the results shown in De Grauwe, Dewachter, and Embrechts (1993) in a more sophisticated framework. In their model, the speculative dynamics resulting from the interaction between chartists and fundamentalists are incorporated into a Dornbusch-style model to generate a chaotic nominal exchange rate. Here the model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995, 1996) replaces the Dornbusch model, and chaotic solutions are still shown to be possible for sensible parameter values.     

Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy

This paper describes a simple framework for monetary policy analysis in a small open economy where bank credit is the only source of external finance. At the heart of the model is the link between banks’ lending rates (which incorporate a premium over and above the marginal cost of borrowing) and firms’ net worth. In contrast to models in the Stiglitz-Weiss or Kiyotaki-Moore tradition, the supply of bank loans is perfectly elastic at the prevailing rate. The central bank sets the refinance rate and provides unlimited access to liquidity at that rate. The model is used to study the effects of changes in official interest rates, under both fixed and flexible exchange rates. Various extensions are also discussed, including income effects, the cost channel, the role of land as collateral, and dollarization.

The Response of Trade Prices to Exchange Rate Changes

The present paper examines export and import pricing behavior following exchange rate changes in small, open economies. Using a monopolistic model, this study reveals that export and import prices should change but not in proportion to exchange rate movements. The policy implication of the results is that the pricing to market phenomenon could be a critical factor in explaining the evolution of the external trade balance with strategic interaction present in the case of prices on tradable goods. Consequently, the use of an exchange rate policy in the case of external imbalances should be a central issue within the broader context of how market structure and conduct affect the optimal traded goods prices.     

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Small Open Economy: A Stochastic Analysis

This article employs a rational expectations IS-LM model with price adjustment to study the effect of domestic monetary and fiscal policy and world interest rate disturbances on the real and nominal small open economy term structure of interest rates. The impact of both temporary and permanent shocks are investigated. Notable results include the fact that monetary expansions lead to positive yield curves, while the implications of fiscal expansions and increases in the world interest rate depend crucially on the duration of the shock.     

The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy

This paper analyses interactions between the real exchange rate and business cycles in a small open economy like Norway. Using a structural vector autoregression model, the role of different shocks are analysed, to investigate to what extent the real exchange rate is absorbing shocks, or a source of shocks itself. The results are ambiguous. Output and the real exchange rate are mainly explained by separate shocks, so that relinquishing exchange rate independence should come at little cost. However, the importance of nominal shocks in the business cycle emphasises that stabilisation is possible. Hence, remaining monetary independence may be attractive.     

Fiscal policy and direct crowding-out in a small open economy

This paper analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the ‘pure waste’ case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. In any case, the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption is a key parameter in governing the welfare effects of fiscal policy.

Welfare Effects of Capital Taxation in a Small Open Economy

In a small open economy, the welfare effect of capital taxation depends on the allocation of the tax revenue as well as the tax system. If tax revenues are used to finance debt or government spending, an increase in either residential or territorial capital taxation will reduce the welfare of the representative individual. If tax revenues are transferred intergenerationally, an increase in the residential capital tax rate will increase the steady-state welfare when the after-tax interest rate is greater than the growth rate. If the revenue is rebated to the tax payer, an introduction of territorial capital taxation may increase welfare when the growth rate is relatively high. In the case where either the revenue from residential capital taxation is rebated to the tax payer or the revenue from territorial capital taxation is transferred intergenerationally, the welfare-maximizing tax rate appears to be zero.     

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate

We study the empirical effects of fiscal policy in Denmark since the adoption of a fixed exchange rate policy in 1982. Denmark’s fixed exchange rate implies that the nominal interest rate remains fixed after a fiscal expansion, facilitating a substantial impact of the fiscal stimulus on the real economy. On the other hand, the large degree of openness of the Danish economy means that a sizeable share of the fiscal stimulus will be directed towards imported goods. Our results suggest that the ‘monetary accomodation channel’ dominates the ‘leakage effect’ in the short run. We demonstrate that fiscal stimulus has a rather large impact on economic activity in the very short run, with a government spending multiplier of 1.1 on impact in our preferred specification. We also find that the effects of fiscal stimulus are rather short-lived in Denmark, with the effect on output becoming insignificant after around two years. The fiscal multiplier is above 1 only in the first quarter, and drops to 0.6 one year after the shock. We also find that in the short run, the government spending multiplier is larger than the tax multiplier. Finally, we demonstrate that exogenous shocks to government spending account for less than 10 % of the movements in output over the business cycle in Denmark.     

开放条件下中、美货币政策博弈分析

货币政策和国际合作一直以来都是经济学界研究的重要内容,本文根据2002年Obstfeld和Rogoff的文章所得出的结论来分析中、美之间货币政策的问题。参考其结论货币政策的合作虽然能够在一定程度上给双方带来一定的好处,但是国内经济的稳定性会下降,由此会大大降低本国的福利水平。中国是一个经济大国,不应该与美国进行货币政策合作。虽然与美国的货币政策合作会在一定程度上提高中国的福利,但是中国货币政策会丧失独立性,由此会在很大程度上降低本国的福利。     

Lending Rate Spread Shock and Monetary Policy Arrangements: A Small Open Economy Model for ASEAN Countries

We investigate the welfare implications of monetary policy arrangements in a small open economy, considering firms' bank‐based finances that are widely observed in emerging ASEAN countries. The impact of an unexpected change in the lending rate spread, or a lending rate spread shock, depends on the presence of banking activity in the economy. This presence is important in Malaysia and Vietnam, where welfare effects of this type of shock are at least comparable to those of foreign monetary policy shocks. We also find that a rigid exchange rate arrangement amplifies the effect of a shock.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector

The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks.     

浅谈出口退税政策调整对我国财政和经济的影响

出口退税政策的调整对促进我国的出口增长发挥了重要的作用,出口退税率的高低波动会改变出口商品的总成本,使商品在国际上的价格竞争力发生变动,影响出口商品的出口量。文章对影响我国财政和经济的出口退税的含义、特点、模式选择、合理性和调整的必要性等方面进行了阐述。     

Exchange Rate Cycles and Canada/US Manufacturing Prices

The paper examines the industry characteristics that are related to the shifts in competitiveness, measured as the relative common-currency price ratios between Canadian and US manufacturing prices. We find that relative input costs and relative productivity growth are the two most important factors influencing changes in relative Canada/US prices. Competitive pressures emanating from trade are important determinants of the extent to which relative productivity differences are passed through to cross-country relative prices. We also find that the magnitude of domestic market competition and export intensity affects the short-run relative price shifts over the cycle of exchange rate. JEL no. E30, F31, L60     

基于超调模型和虚拟经济视角的汇率动态分析

汇率决定及其动态调整分析是汇率理论的研究内核。文章以汇率超调模型为基础,突出虚拟经济与实体经济双轮驱动及其与宏观经济总供给和总需求关联运行的作用机理,结合非线性宏观金融理论在货币供需分析中引入可交易金融资产,尝试构建新的分析框架。在虚拟经济与实体经济视角下分析美元名义汇率的动态变化,并以此为基础进行实证研究,考察美元汇率及经济失调。     

新兴市场体的出口结构与汇率稳定

本文介绍了汇率对出口价格传递机制的模型。该模型中描述了汇率对出口价格的传递机制与出口结构有关:在进口的投入品比例高时,或出口产品与外国产品相似、竞争激烈时,出口变化对汇率的变动不敏感。由于以东亚为代表的新兴市场体普遍采取了出口导向型战略,因此出口结构决定了该地区对汇率稳定的钉住汇率制度有着偏爱本质。而对于不可避免地增加汇率弹性的中国而言,只有使出口结构高级化,才是人民币升值坚实的基础。     

东亚经济体的汇率稳定与出口结构因素

本文从理论视角描述了汇率对出口价格传递机制:在进口的投入品比例高时,或出口产品与外国产品相似、竞争激烈时,出口变化对汇率的变动不敏感。而东亚地区出口结构符合这一特性。对于不可避免地增加汇率弹性的中国,也只有使出口结构高级化,才是人民币升值坚实的基础。     

人民币汇改后汇率对不同贸易方式进出口的影响

人民币汇改以来,人民币汇率已升值20％,文章通过实证分析研究人民币升值对不同贸易方式的影响。研究结果表明,人民币升值贸易顺差继续扩大,而加工贸易是我国贸易顺差的主要来源,汇率对一般贸易的影响大于对加工贸易的影响,文章从几个方面分析了原因,并提出了建议。     

Analysis of the Interactive Linkages Between Gold Prices,Oil Prices,and Exchange Rate in India

This study investigates the co-movements and linkages among gold prices, oil prices, and Indian rupee–dollar exchange rates for the time span of 12 January 2004 to 30 April 2015 to investigate whether Indian economic policy-makers should detach financial policies from energy policies. Various econometrical methods such as Johansen’s cointegration test, vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test, and impulse response were used to explain the co-movements among the variables. We find that gold prices, oil prices, and rupee–dollar exchange rates stay substantially independent from each other, which denotes energy policies and financial policies must be detached.     

开放经济条件下中国泰勒规则及其拓展形式的实证研究

文章从标准泰勒规则的内涵和适用条件出发,应用中国1995年第1季度到2010年第1季度的数估计了标准的线性泰勒规则,逐步从利率平滑、前瞻性变量、汇率因素和资产价格等方面放宽适用条件,根据开放经济条件下的货币政策数据对泰勒规则的拓展模型进行实证检验并验证泰勒规则在我国的适应性。