Uncertainty and the macroeconomy: evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator

This article proposes a uncertainty composite indicator (UCI) based on three distinct sources of uncertainty (namely financial, political, and macroeconomic) for the US economy on the period 1985–2015. For that, we use a dynamic factor model, summarizing efficiently six individual uncertainty proxies, namely two macroeconomic and financial uncertainty factors based on the unpredictability, a measure of (micro)economic uncertainty, the implied volatility index, the corporate bond spreads, and an index of economic policy uncertainty. We then compare the effects of uncertainty on economic activity when the UCI is used instead of individual uncertainty proxies in structural VAR models. The interest of our UCI is to synthesize theses effects within one measure of uncertainty. Overall, the UCI was able to account for the most important dynamics of uncertainty which play an important role in business cycles.     

Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions

In this paper, we investigate the robustness of the relationship between trade openness and long-run economic growth over the sample period 1960–2000, utilising Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for model uncertainty issues in a systematic manner. We find no evidence that trade openness is directly and robustly correlated with economic growth in the long run. We further check the robustness of this finding by employing a battery of proxies for trade openness, namely, current openness, real openness, the fraction of open years based on the Sachs and Warner (1995) criteria and the weighted averages of tariff rates, non-tariff barriers and the black market premium. The main result is robust to the inclusion of different trade openness proxies and none of the proxies is robustly associated with economic growth. The data evidence also indicates that economic institutions and macroeconomic uncertainties such as those induced by high inflation and excess government consumption are key factors in explaining economic growth.     

Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence

This paper deals with transition mechanisms through which financial market conditions affect real economic growth in the Euro area. The informational content of financial variables for predicting real economic growth is assessed, allowing for asymmetric responses to shocks. A nonlinear framework is developed based on a smooth transition model for which the effects of shocks can vary across business cycles when financial indicators modify both the endogenous and state variables. Global financial variables are shown to significantly affect real growth in the Euro area, particularly during periods of recession. Changes in stock market index and yield slope have asymmetric effects on real growth. In recessionary periods, the slope of the US yield curve does not have a significant impact on growth in the Euro area.     

套利型创业、创新型创业与中国经济增长

在探讨套利型创业和创新型创业对经济增长效应机理差别的基础上,运用扩展的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,结合2002-2014年中国省际面板数据,实证考察市场化进程中创业类型对中国经济增长的影响及其阶段性差异。结果表明,在不考虑协同效应的情况下套利型创业尤其是技术套利型创业对我国经济增长有显著促进作用,创新型创业的影响则不显著。但在市场化协同作用下,创新型创业经济增长效应的显著性和影响系数均大幅提高,套利型创业对经济增长的促进作用则显著下降。同时,门限回归检验发现,创业类型与市场化协同效应对经济增长的影响存在显著阶段性差异。     

An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy

In this paper, we identify and estimate the dynamic effects of foreign (US) and national (Canadian) credit shocks in a small open economy. We use standard credit spreads as proxies to the external finance premium. Our first result suggests that the US and Canadian credit spreads contain substantial forecasting power for several measures of the Canadian real economic activity, especially during the recent financial crisis and its aftermath. Secondly, an adverse US credit shock generates a significant and persistent economic slowdown in Canada: the national external finance premium rises immediately while interest rates, credit aggregates, output and employment indicators decline. Variance decomposition reveals that credit shocks have a sizeable effect on real activity measures, leading indicators and credit spreads. Yet, the unexpected shocks in domestic credit spreads are not able to generate any significant dynamic response of the real activity once we control for the US credit market conditions.     

商业模式创新与技术创新匹配性对后发企业绩效的影响——来自年报文本分析的实证研究

以2014—2019年沪深A股成长期上市公司作为后发企业代表，借助Word2Vec的文本分析方法，基于公司年度财务数据度量后发企业商业模式创新水平，实证研究后发企业追赶过程中商业模式创新、技术创新以及二者匹配性与企业绩效间的作用机理。结果发现：商业模式创新对后发企业绩效具有显著正向影响；技术创新对后发企业绩效具有显著正向影响；商业模式创新和技术创新的平衡性与后发企业绩效正相关；商业模式创新和技术创新的组合性与后发企业绩效正相关。结果表明，对于后发企业而言，商业模式创新与技术创新为互补关系，而非互替关系，二者间的匹配性对后发企业绩效提升具有增强型交互作用。     

Business cycles in a two-sector model of endogenous growth

Summary. This paper analyzes the impact of cyclical volatility on long-term economic growth: does growth increase or decrease with increased cyclical volatility? We construct a stochastic two-sector model of endogenous growth to analyze this question in detail. We will show that economic growth is higher in the presence of business cycles, since people devote more time to learning activities in an uncertain economic environment. Human capital is a hedge against future income uncertainty. Hence, the rate of economic growth will be higher in a stochastic environment. Based on a calibration of the model, we find that economic growth increases by 0.46%-point as a result of observed business cycle variability. When account is taken of the interaction between the model's general equilibrium and the cycle, welfare gains (measured in units of a permanent percentage increase in consumption) from eliminating business cycle volatility are approximately 1.87%. Received: January 25, 2000; revised version: November 3, 2000     

营商环境对中国省域经济高质量发展的非线性影响——双元创新的调节效应

从市场化、便利化、法治化和国际化4个维度出发，构建我国省域层面营商环境评价指标体系，采用2012-2019年中国省际面板数据，实证检验营商环境对中国经济高质量发展的非线性影响，探讨双元创新的调节效应。研究表明：①营商环境对经济高质量发展具有非线性影响，二者之间呈现“先抑后扬”的U型关系，我国大多数东部省份和少数西部省份已经跨过拐点，其余省份均位于拐点左侧，中部和西部地区营商环境水平有待提升；②双元创新对营商环境与经济高质量发展U型关系起正向调节作用。当探索式创新水平较高时，U型曲线变得更陡峭且拐点会提前出现；当利用式创新水平较高时，U型曲线变得更陡峭且拐点会延迟出现。另外，替换双元创新测度指标对营商环境不同维度进行稳健性检验也得出类似结论。     

Managing TFT-LCDs under uncertainty: When crystal cycles meet business cycles

Understanding the correlation between the crystal cycle and the business cycle is important, because it can help managers to anticipate change, reduce environmental uncertainty, and formulate operational objectives. To this end, we focused on China and the U.S. in our analysis. We found that the economic indicators that were the most relevant in the characterization of China's huge and burgeoning TFT-LCD market are gross domestic production and industrial production. We complemented this finding by conducting similar analyses in the U.S. market using a more comprehensive list of economic indicators.     

经济政策不确定性与家族企业创新——融资约束及政府补助视角

家族企业作为社会发展的主要参与者,在促进经济增长方面发挥着不可替代的作用。家族企业若想实现长期发展,必然依靠创新。然而,我国家族企业普遍面临创新投入不足、创新产出效率低下等问题。基于2010—2018年中国上市家族企业数据,分析经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新是否存在激励作用。结果发现,经济政策不确定性提高,会对家族企业创新研发活动投入与产出产生正向激励作用,促进家族企业创新。从融资约束与政府补助视角,分析两者在上述正向激励作用中的调节作用。结果表明,对于融资约束小以及受到政府补助的家族企业而言,其受到经济政策不确定性的正向激励作用更显著,有助于其开展创新研发活动。结论不仅验证了经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新的激励作用,还揭示了融资约束以及政府补助的调节作用,可为政府制定相应补助政策,构建完善的金融市场提供理论支持和经验证据。     

Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle: Accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework

ABSTRACT

This article reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the United States using a four-variable VAR GARCH-in-mean asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global supply and demand factors that might affect the real price of oil, its volatility as well as the US economy. We find that – even after accounting for these factors – oil price uncertainty still has a highly significant negative influence on the US business cycle. Our computations show that the effect is economically important during several periods, mostly after a significant variance shift in the mid-1980s. We simultaneously estimate the effect on the global business cycle but find that it is comparatively weak. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge and channel of transmission of more general macroeconomic shocks and uncertainty. These linkages are particularly strong in case of unexpected bad news.     

ANOTHER LOOK AT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INNOVATION PROXIES*

Shortcomings in the treatment of intangible investment in company accounts imply that there is no statistical collection for innovative activity which abides by the logic used for other economic activity data. As a consequence, analysts rely on innovation proxies derived from administrative and survey data. However, it is still unclear exactly how the different proxies are correlated, and whether the choice amongst different proxies matters. In the light of the innovation measurement, this paper takes another look at the relationship between different proxies of firm innovation. The results show that firm‐level correlations between survey‐based indicators and other proxies for innovation are highest for manufacturing firms and for product innovations.     

Business investment in euro area countries: the role of institutions and debt overhang

The recovery of business investment in the euro area has been sluggish, thereby hampering aggregate demand in the short term and potential growth in the long run. While we show that business investment can be associated to cost and supply of credit, cyclical demand conditions and economic uncertainty. But we also find evidence of additional factors. We suggest that there exists a link between excess leverage and weak economic institutions on the one hand and subdued investment growth on the other hand. Moreover, in euro area countries with both larger excess leverage and weaker economic institutions, the link with business investment is found to be stronger. The link between investment and weak institutions or excess leverage highlights the importance of structural reforms aimed at easing business regulations, reducing administrative burdens and increasing the efficiency of insolvency frameworks. These reforms are thus expected to reduce distortions in the allocation of resources and be supportive of a smoother deleveraging process, hence fostering business investment.     

Money growth,uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis

The impact uncertainty has on money growth has received much attention in recent years and is an issue of critical importance to central banks, particularly for those, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), which place a strong emphasis on monetary analysis in monetary policy formulation. Some recent papers examining this issue use ad hoc estimates and measure variability rather than uncertainty. We employ a multivariate GARCH model, which measures uncertainty by the conditional variance of the data series, to investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty Granger-cause changes in real money. The estimated model also allows us to investigate how monetary uncertainty impacts economic activity. We find that macroeconomic uncertainty impacts positively on US real M2 growth over a two-year horizon but that monetary uncertainty does not cause changes in real M2. Instead, our results indicate that real money growth causes monetary uncertainty. Monetary uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on real economic activity and on macroeconomic uncertainty. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results and the methodological approach used for institutions such as the ECB that give monetary analysis a prominent role in their monetary policy strategy.     

The Right to Organize in the Philippine Business Process Outsourcing Industry

Abstract

There has been some concern over the past few years that nations with emerging economies are sacrificing human dignity over economic progress. An emerging market such as the Philippines has to deal with a host of economic, social, and political issues as its economy develops. One of the issues that concern those who are involved in human rights advocacy is labor rights. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the labor rights issues surrounding the Philippine business process outsourcing (BPO) industry, specifically the right to organize. It also aims to investigate how the changing structure of the Philippine economy has affected the labor rights of its people. This paper will use the BPO industry in the Philippines as a case study. This paper will also try to compare the Philippine experience with those of other countries in order to put its findings in context. Finally, the paper shall examine the effects of globalization on workers’ ability to organize and advocate for their rights.     

Productive and Unproductive Capital: A mapping of the New Zealand system of national accounts to classical economic categories, 1972‐95

New Zealand has gained considerable international attention for the neo-liberal economic reform programme it enacted from the mid-1980s; this programme has served as a model for similar reform elsewhere. Within the neoclassical framework of the reformers, the programme has produced many improvements to the economy. Such fundamental indicators as lower inflation, lower budget deficits and higher economic growth are cited as evidence of the improved economic conditions. Yet unemployment remains high, real interest rates are among the highest in the world, nominal interest rates and business confidence fluctuate considerably, and the balance of payments is deteriorating. Using a classical framework, this paper examines the neo-liberal reform of the New Zealand economy to see if there are alternative explanations for the persistence of these problems. The methodology developed by Shaikh & Tonak (1994) is used to map official national accounts data to classical economic categories for the 1972 to 1995 period. This approach is compared with earlier attempts at estimating classical economic categories for New Zealand. This classical view of the economic reforms is compared with the conventional view. The paper's main results are that there was a large increase in unproductive economic activity associated with the economic reforms in New Zealand; that the improvement in economic fundamentals emphasised by the reformers reflects this growth of unproductive activity; and that the persistence of other economic indicators is related to the ongoing weakness of productive activity.     

数智化如何赋能经济高质量发展——兼论营商环境的调节作用

数智化如何赋能经济高质量发展，是近年来实务界和学术界共同关注的焦点。从理论上分析数智化对经济高质量发展的影响机制，并探讨营商环境对两者关系的调节作用，然后以2009-2018年我国内地31个省、市、自治区数据为样本，实证检验上述影响机制和调节作用。研究发现，数智化转型与应用对经济高质量发展具有积极促进作用，营商环境在数智化与经济高质量发展之间具有显著调节作用，营商环境越优良，数智化对经济高质量发展的促进作用越显著。同时，营商环境的调节作用在我国存在显著的区域差异性，其在东部和中部地区的调节作用显著高于西部地区。     

Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?

We investigate the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on some Euro area macroeconomic aggregates via Structural VARs. We model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by  Baker et al. (2013) jointly with the aggregate price indexes and alternative indicators of the business cycle for the two above indicated economic areas. According to our SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant fall in the European industrial production and prices of −0.12% and −0.06%, respectively. The contribution of the US uncertainty shock on the European aggregates is shown to be quantitatively larger than the one exerted by an Euro area-specific uncertainty shock.     

Microdata imputations and macrodata implications: Evidence from the Ifo Business Survey

A widespread method for forecasting economic macro level parameters such as GDP growth rates is survey-based indicators that contain early information in contrast to official data. But surveys are commonly affected by nonresponding units, which can cause biased results. Many papers have examined the effect of nonresponse in individual or household surveys, but less is known in the case of business surveys. For this reason, we analyse and impute the missing observations in the Ifo Business Survey, a large business survey in Germany. The most prominent result of this survey is the Ifo Business Climate Index, a leading indicator for the German business cycle. To reflect the underlying latent data generating process, we compare different imputation approaches for longitudinal data. After this, the microdata are aggregated and the results are compared with the original indicators to evaluate their implications at the macro level. Finally, we show that the differences between the original and imputed indicators do not lead to substantial changes in the interpretation and the forecasting performance of the indicators.     

Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The case of Hong Kong

This paper studies the extent to which economic policy uncertainty shocks in major economies affect real economic activity in small open economies. We use Hong Kong as a case study. Following Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), we construct a newspaper‐based economic policy uncertainty index for Hong Kong for the period 1998 to 2016. We estimate international spillovers of uncertainty and find large spillovers of uncertainty from major economies to Hong Kong. Furthermore, using a structural vector autoregressive approach, we show that a rise in domestic economic policy uncertainty leads to tight financial conditions, and lower investment and vacancy posting, dampening domestic output growth.