多元化能降低银行风险吗？——来自中国上市银行的经验证据

基于中国上市银行四维多元化指标的构建和归纳,应用动态面板GMM模型对收入、地域、资产和非传统业务活动多元化与银行风险之间的关系进行实证研究发现:收入、资产和非传统业务活动的多元化有助于降低银行风险,且国有银行获得的多元化收益多于中小银行;但在地域多元化方面,国有银行的地域多元化反而可能导致风险提高,而中小银行的地域多元化则更有利于分散和降低风险.     

The impact of bank regulations, supervision, market structure, and bank characteristics on individual bank ratings: A cross-country analysis

We use country level data and bank level data from 71 countries and 857 banks to investigate the impact of bank regulations, supervision, market structure, and bank characteristics on individual bank ratings. The results indicate that less cost efficient banks, with higher than average levels of provisions relatively to their income, and lower liquidity tend to have lower ratings. Larger and more profitable banks tend to obtain higher ratings. Higher equity to assets ratio results in higher ratings only when we do not control for bank supervision and regulations. Capital requirements, restrictions on bank activities, official disciplinary power, explicit deposit insurance scheme, higher deposit insurer power, liquidity and diversification guidelines, entry requirements, fraction of entries denied, and economic freedom have a significant impact on ratings in all of our specifications. Disclosure requirements and foreign banks entry have a significant impact on ratings only when we simultaneously control for the regulatory environment and the market structure, while auditing requirements have a significant impact only when we control for the regulatory environment alone. Finally, banks in developed countries are assigned higher ratings. However, this impact disappears when we include the regulatory and supervision variables in the models.     

The effects of revenue diversification and cross border banking on risk and return of banks in Africa

The paper analyses the implications of revenue diversification and cross-border banking for risk and return. We sample 320 banks across 29 African countries and employ System GMM estimator as a methodological approach to shed further light on the diversification-stability nexus by examining the complex interaction between three key variables: cross-border banking, diversification and bank stability. The results suggest that exploration risk reduces diversification as the level of capital increases when banks cross border to diversify across revenue generating activities. Our analyses further show that, banks in Africa derive absolute benefits from diversification if they cross border and diversify their revenue base concurrently. These results are robust to a range of controls including alternative variable specifications, regulatory environment that bank operate and methodology.     

Economic value,competition and financial distress in the European banking system

In this paper we examine the impact of a large number of factors at the bank level (liquidity and credit risks, asset size, income diversification and market power), at the industry level (banking concentration) and macro-level (real GDP growth) on bank financial distress using an unbalanced panel of 308 European commercial banks between 1996 and 2009. The observations falling below a given threshold of the empirical distribution of the Shareholder Value Ratio proxy bank financial distress. We employ a panel probit regression and, given the presence of overlapping data giving rise to residual autocorrelation, we use the Bertschek and Lechner (1998) robust estimator of the covariance matrix of parameters. We show that credit risk, liquidity risk and bank market power are the most influential determinants of distressed Shareholder Value Ratio. Finally we evaluate the model out-sample forecasting performance over the 2008–2009 crisis period.     

城市商业银行跨区域经营:信贷扩张、风险水平及银行绩效

本文使用我国城市商业银行2004～2009年跨区域经营数据,首次对城市商业银行跨区域经营的相关问题进行了实证研究。结果发现,现阶段进行跨区域经营的城市商业银行中多是资产规模大、资本水平高、资产质量好、市场势力强的"好银行"。与只在本区域经营的银行相比,跨区域经营能有效分散投资风险,避免区域经济波动的风险,有益于降低银行风险水平。此外,跨区域经营的程度越高,银行的信贷增速越快、风险水平也显著降低。本文的这些发现为城市商业银行跨区域经营战略提供了经验支持,也为监管当局进一步改革监管政策提供了相关依据。     

Bank risk in uncertain times: Do credit rationing and revenue diversification matter?

We show that bank risk rises, particularly for larger banks and those with greater interest-sensitive liabilities, during times of economic policy uncertainty through two economic channels: “credit rationing” and “revenue diversification.” The credit rationing channel shows that economic policy uncertainty increases aggregate loan spreads, exacerbating both adverse selection and moral hazard problems leading to higher bank risk. The revenue diversification channel suggests that as economic policy uncertainty reduces bank profits from traditional interest-based products, banks diversify into other non-traditional activities, thereby increasing their instability. Overall, our findings highlight the impact of economic policy uncertainty on exacerbating bank risk.     

The Competitive Impact of Commercial Bank Underwriting on the Market for Municipal Revenue Bonds

This paper examines the impact of commercial bank entry in the market for municipal revenue bonds. We show that issues underwritten by commercial banks have lower underwriter spreads but not lower yields relative to issues underwritten by nonbank investment firms. In particular, this is more significant for non-investment-grade bonds underwritten by commercial banks. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that bank entry has resulted in increased competition in the municipal revenue bond market and that the lower yields observed for bank-underwritten commercial bonds may be due to banks having private information. Overall, our results suggest that policy changes leading to the relaxation of restrictive provisions concerning bank underwriting of municipal revenue bonds have had beneficial effects.     

Diversification of geographic risk in retail bank networks: evidence from bank expansion after the Riegle‐Neal Act

The 1994 Riegle‐Neal Act (RN) removed restrictions on branch‐network expansion for banks in the United States. An important motivation was to facilitate geographic risk diversification (GRD). Using a factor model to measure banks' geographic risk, we show that RN expanded GRD possibilities in small states, but only some large banks took advantage. Using our measure of geographic risk and an empirical model of branch‐network choice, we identify preferences toward GRD separately from other factors possibly limiting network expansion. Counterfactuals show that risk negatively affected bank value but was counterbalanced by economies of density/scale, reallocation/merging costs, and local market power concerns.     

Does competition influence the bank lending channel in the euro area?

This paper examines how competition influences the bank lending channel in the euro area countries. Using a large panel of banks from 12 euro area countries for the period 2002–2010 we analyze the reaction of loan supply to monetary policy actions depending on the degree of bank competition. We find that the effect of monetary policy on bank lending is dependent on bank competition: the transmission of monetary policy via the bank lending channel is less pronounced for banks with extensive market power. Further investigation shows that banks with less market power were more sensitive to monetary policy only before the financial crisis. These results suggest that bank market power has a significant impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore, wide variations in the level of bank market power may lead to asymmetric effects of the single monetary policy.     

Does Diversification Improve the Performance of German Banks? Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolios

Should banks be diversified or focused? Does diversification indeed lead to increased performance and therefore greater safety on the part of banks as traditional portfolio and banking theory would suggest? Recently, Acharya et al. (J Bus, 79:1355–1412, 2006) have found that for Italian banks the answers to these questions depend on the level of risk that a bank has taken. In this paper we investigate whether this result is robust to the choice of the sample and to the calculation of the risk variable. To this end we use a unique data set of the individual bank loan portfolios of 983 German banks for the period from 1996 to 2002 and calculate a Value-at-Risk based risk variable. We then investigate the link between banks’ profitability and their portfolio diversification across different industries, broader economic sectors and geographical regions. We find little evidence of large performance benefits associated with diversification: For the majority of our data, diversification tends to be associated with reductions in bank returns, even after controlling for risk. Only in a few cases (e.g., high-risk banks and industrial diversification) do we find statistically significant positive relationships between diversification and bank returns. Our findings contradict both the empirical findings of Acharya et al. (J Bus, 79:1355–1412, 2006) and the theoretical findings of Winton (Don’t put all your eggs in one basket? Diversification and specialization in lending. Working Paper No. 00-16, University of Minnesota, 1999).     

Noninterest income mix and bank performance: Generalized propensity score fractional dose–response function evidence

This paper investigates the impact of different levels of noninterest income on the risk-adjusted profitability and financial stability of banks in the Middle Eastern and North African banking industry from 1988 to 2020. We apply a program impact evaluation analysis, using the generalized propensity score-fractional dose–response function method, and assess the effect of each level (or dose) of noninterest income mix on bank performance (the dose–response function). Splitting the sample into Gulf Cooperation Council- and non-Gulf Cooperation Council-based banks reveals that while higher levels of revenue diversification are beneficial for the former, a focus on traditional banking activities is preferable for the latter to achieve the best performance. The findings could serve as an early warning flag for bank managers, policy-makers, and regulators in dealing with these strategic shifts.     

Interest margins and bank regulation in Central America and the Caribbean

This paper examines empirically the determinants of bank interest margins in Central America and the Caribbean over the period 1998–2014. A particular focus is set on the impact of differences in the regulatory environment and market structure across countries in explaining the interest margins of individual banks. Our results suggest that bank market power, operating costs, credit risk, and liquid asset holdings increase the margin between loan and deposit rates, while increased income diversification and GDP growth are associated with lower loan-deposit spreads. When considering information on banking regulation, we find strong evidence to support our main hypothesis that improvements in market quality and liberalization have a significant effect on interest margins. More specifically, reductions in entry requirements to banking, higher involvement of foreign banks, and increased financial statement transparency are associated with significant reductions in interest margins.     

Risk-adjusted profitability and stability of Islamic and conventional banks: Does revenue diversification matter?

Revenue diversification in banking offers opportunities and threats. Recent academic research shows that disadvantages may outweigh advantages, in terms of both volatility of profitability and bank riskiness. Literature on this topic in emerging countries and in the field of Islamic finance is limited: our aim is to empirically test if revenue diversity affects Islamic banks differently than conventional institutions. We analyze the impact of income diversification on profitability and firm-risk of banks in selected OIC countries, in the period 2007–2016, using a comprehensive dataset of 47 Islamic and 154 conventional banks, through diverse measures and econometric approaches. We find that diversification provides lower rewards for Islamic banks than conventional banks, with effects that are stronger for accounting-based measures rather than market-based metrics. Shares of non-interest income positively contribute to profitability regardless of the business model, whereas income diversification shows a not significant effect on the risk-adjusted profitability of Islamic banks. Moreover, we do not find any relationship between income diversification and stability for both conventional and Islamic banks.     

Branching,lending and competition in Italian banking

With the liberalization of legal barriers to the opening of bank branches in 1990, both market structure and competitive conditions in Italy changed profoundly as banks expanded their branching networks. This paper provides novel empirical evidence on how changes of the branch network structure at the province level affect the performance and lending activity of banks across the period 1993–2011. In particular, we adopt two modes of analysis. The first focuses on the impact of diversification strategies on performance, lending and funding strategies at the province level. The second one examines how the increase of big banks' local presence affects single-market bank performance and lending strategies. Our results show that geographical diversification strategies can reduce performance, the adjusted Lerner Index of banks and lending activities, but increase the Lerner Index in deposit markets. Furthermore, we find that the expansion of branches by large-medium sized banks in concentrated markets can reduce the Lerner Index for the deposit market and the amount of loans offered by single-market banks.     

The regulations–risk taking nexus under competitive pressure: What about the Islamic banking system?

Does market power condition the effect of bank regulations and supervision on bank risk taking? We focus on three regulatory tools: capital requirements, the restriction of activities, and official supervisory powers. Employing 10 years of unbalanced panel data on 123 Islamic and conventional banks operating in the Middle East and Asia, we arrive at the following conclusions. First, banking market power strengthens the negative impact of capital regulation on bank risk taking. Second, our empirical results suggest that the negative effect of activity restrictions on stability is diminished when banks have greater market power. Finally, we do not find strong evidence that the negative effect of supervisory power on banks’ risk taking is conditioned by their competitive behavior. In further analysis, we differentiate between Islamic and conventional banks regarding their competition, as well as their risk behavior. The results differ according to the banking business model. These findings could be useful for bank regulators in light of the accomplishment of Islamic banks’ regulatory framework. Indeed, the adoption of Basel III represents a significant regulatory challenge, given that it does not take into account the specificities of Islamic banks.     

Bank size, market concentration, and bank earnings volatility in the US

We examine whether bank earnings volatility depends on bank size and the degree of concentration in the banking sector. Using quarterly data for non-investment banks in the United States for the period 2004Q1-2009Q4 and controlling for the quality of management, leverage, and diversification, we find that bank size reduces return volatility. The negative impact of bank size on bank earnings volatility decreases (in absolute terms) with market concentration. We also find that larger banks located in concentrated markets have experienced higher volatility during the recent financial crisis.     

Does the stock market value bank diversification?

This paper investigates whether or not functionally diversified banks have a comparative advantage in terms of long-term performance/risk profile compared to their specialized competitors. To that end, this study uses market-based measures of return potential and bank risk. We calculate the franchise value over time of European banks as a measure of their long-run performance potential. In addition, we measure risk as both the systematic and the idiosyncratic risk components derived from a bank stock return model. Finally, we analyze the return/risk trade-off implied in different functional diversification strategies using a panel data analysis over the period 1989–2004. A higher share of non-interest income in total income affects banks’ franchise values positively. Diversification of revenue streams from distinct financial activities increases the systematic risk of banks while the effect on the idiosyncratic risk component is non-linear and predominantly downward-sloping. These findings have conflicting implications for different stakeholders, such as investors, bank shareholders, bank managers and bank supervisors.     

The impact of revenue diversification on bank profitability and risk: evidence from MENA banking industry

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of revenue diversification on bank performance while shedding light on the impact of the shift towards non-interest income sources. To this end, we use a sample of 275 banks from fourteen MENA countries over 1990–2011. The model estimation using the GMM system reveals that diversification, when taken as a whole, improves bank profitability. We also split the non-interest income and we find that trading-generating business lines contribute the most to boosting profitability and stability. Engaging in non-interest-related activities worsens the benefit-cost trade-off of diversification, induced by the increased insolvency risk.     

Foreign Ownership and Market Power in Banking: Evidence from a World Sample

The nexus between ownership and competition in the banking sector is a major concern to policymakers around the world but one that is rarely comprehensively examined. For 131 countries and 13 years we match bank ownership with over 50,000 bank‐year estimates of individual bank market power. We find that ownership does not explain market power at the individual bank level. However, at the country level, foreign bank ownership has a positive and significant impact on market power mainly because foreign banks enter through mergers or acquisitions and not through greenfield investments. The observed increases in market power primarily originate from decreases in the marginal cost.     

Why do banks choose to finance with equity?

A majority of U.S. banks between 1973 and 2012 held equity capital significantly beyond the required minimum. We study the risk-return tradeoff in connection with a bank’s capital structure, and identify several new significant market factors that drive the level of equity capital in banks. During normal growth periods, bank leverage is negatively related to a level of competition and loan portfolio diversification, while high bank leverage is associated with low past liquidity. During recessions and expansions, the roles of those factors change following distortions in risk-return tradeoff. In distress, when banks approach regulatory capital requirements, market determinants of book leverage lose their significance; however, leverage does not decrease until a bank is within 1% of the minimal capital threshold.