Understanding the economic dynamics behind growth-inequality relationships

In this paper, a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of growth-inequality relationships, with missing credit markets, knowledge spillover and self-employed agents, is calibrated to New Zealand data. The model explains how two distinct policy shocks involving redistribution and immigration imply, subsequently, two completely opposite outcomes. Agents’ inability to borrow aggravates a negative macroeconomic effect of heterogeneity on growth. Redistribution mitigates that effect but creates microeconomic disincentives on saving and work-effort. Consequently, immigration shocks that perturb variance of efficiency induce a negative growth-inequality relationship, while redistribution shocks, in New Zealand’s case, produce larger fluctuations in incentives than in macro benefits, implying a positive growth-inequality relationship.     

Indeterminacy in dynamic models: When Diamond meets Ramsey

We consider an aggregate two-periods overlapping generations model with endogenous labor, consumption in both periods of life, homothetic preferences and productive external effects coming from the average capital and labor. We show that under realistic calibrations of the parameters, in particular a large enough share of first period consumption over the wage income, local indeterminacy of equilibria cannot occur with capital externalities alone. It can nevertheless occur when there are only, even very small, vanishing labor externalities provided that the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and the wage elasticity of the labor supply are large enough. We also show that if labor externalities are slightly stronger, but still small enough to be plausible, and the elasticity of labor supply is larger, local indeterminacy occurs in a Cobb-Douglas economy. Finally, we show that a locally indeterminate steady state is generically characterized by an under-accumulation of capital. It follows therefore that while agents live over a finite number of periods, the conditions for the existence of locally indeterminate equilibria are very similar to those obtained within infinite horizon models and that from this point of view, Diamond meets Ramsey.     

Business cycle and level accounting: the case of Portugal

This paper studies what accounts for the recent business cycles phenomena in Portugal and why it is depressed relatively to the United States. The business accounting procedure applied here suggests that most of the changes in output per worker in Portugal over the period (mainly, from 1979 to 1991) can be attributed to changes in economic efficiency. For instance, the strong economic recovery in output per worker just after Portugal joined the European Union until the first years of the 1990s can be essentially attributed to improvements in economic efficiency. From 1979 to 2000, Portugal caught up with the industrial leader. Its output per worker is currently depressed by about 46% relative to the United States level (it was depressed by 57% in 1979). In the 1980s all of this depression in output per worker relative to the United States was due to the productivity factor. By 2000 Portugal depression relative to the United States was a mix of the French and Japanese depression. The labor factor accounted for roughly 24% of this depression, while the economic efficiency accounted by about 89%.      

Information-consistent learning and shifts in long-run productivity

Recent macroeconomic research has incorporated learning in an inconsistent manner by assuming agents learn with less information than they use in optimization. We present an information-consistent learning framework and illustrate the effects of violating information-consistency.     

Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?

Abstract.  Some recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded-in by government spending. This outcome violates neoclassical macroeconomic theory, according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption. In this paper, we develop a simple real business cycle model where preferences depend on private and public spending, and households are habit forming. The model is estimated by the maximum-likelihood method using U.S. data. Estimation results indicate a strong Edgeworth complementarity between private and public spending. This feature enables the model to generate a positive response of consumption following a government spending shock. In addition, the impulse-response functions generated by the estimated model are generally consistent with those obtained from a benchmark vector autoregression.     

Government size and macroeconomic stability: A comment

We show that in a standard, technology shock-driven one-sector real business cycle model, the stabilization effects of government fiscal policy depend crucially on how labor hours enter the household's period utility function and the associated labor-market behavior. In particular, as Galí [European Economic Review 38 (1994), 117-132] has shown, when the household utility is logarithmic in both consumption and leisure, income taxes are destabilizing and government purchases are stabilizing. However, the results are reversed when preferences are instead convex in hours worked. That is, income taxes are now stabilizing and public spending is destabilizing. Furthermore, under both preference specifications, the magnitude of cyclical fluctuations in output remains unchanged when the income tax rate and the share of government purchases in GDP are equal (including laissez-faire).     

A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions

We apply the Pesaran (2007) pair-wise approach of convergence to the per capita outputs of 195 European regions for the period 1980-2006. Pesaran's approach is based on the computation of the percentage ratio of output gaps which fulfil a given convergence criterion. A high ratio will be interpreted in favour of convergence. In a first step, we define stochastic convergence between two regions as level stationarity of their output gap. Deviations from its equilibrium value will only have a temporary effect. Results from several usual unit root or stationarity tests show us that the percentage ratio of level stationary output gaps is low, which stands against this definition of convergence. However, this convergence criterion excludes the possibility of changes in output gap equilibrium value or catching up between regions. To fit these cases, we combine the pair-wise approach with unit root or stationarity tests with structural breaks. Structural breaks are modelled by dummies (Zivot and Andrews, 1992; Kurozumi,2002) or as smooth structural breaks (Christopoulos and León-Ledesma, 2009). Overall results are not changed as convergence is not accepted more often. Finally, we consider the autocorrelation function approach of Caggiano and Leonida (2009). Autocorrelations and their confidence intervals are estimated for each output gap. Convergence between two regions is accepted if their per capita output gap autocorrelations become nonsignificantly different from zero after some lag. Results show that a high percentage of regions satisfy this convergence criterion. Contrary to the conclusions which could be made from previous results, shocks to output gaps seem to disappear as time passes.     

Are prior restrictions on factor shares appropriate in growth accounting estimations?

Several studies make different prior assumptions on the magnitude of factor shares and scale of production when accounting for economic growth. The initial Solow estimations for instance assumed a capital share of 0.3 and constant returns to scale. Most authors have subsequently used the same restrictions just because they were used in previous studies even when production in the countries under study may not necessarily be taking place under constant returns to scale and capital share may be a value not any close to 0.3. This is likely to distort growth accounting estimation results. This study investigates whether these prior restrictions on factor shares and scale of production as commonly used in the literature are appropriate and whether the Solow assumptions are likely biased even in developed countries. Using Kenyan data and structural vector autoregressions, the main findings are; first, in all cases of the unrestricted estimations, the share of physical capital is less than 0.16. An estimation which imposes 0.3 as the share of physical capital in this case would therefore not be in line with the data generating process leading to biased results. Secondly, in all cases, the explanatory power of the model decreases when the restrictions are imposed implying that the restrictions are not appropriate in growth accounting exercises. The paper further disputes the “styled fact” in growth studies that the Solow assumptions may be relevant for developed countries but not developing countries and concludes that the Solow assumptions may be biased even in developed countries.     

Firm taxation and the endogenous distribution of markups

Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) predicts a monotonic relation between productivity and markups. When including revenue taxes, however, this relation is non-monotonic and depends on taxes. Even without taxes, productivity and markups can be non-monotonic depending on how non-homotheticity is modeled.     

Balanced-budget rules: Chaos and deterministic sunspots

Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe [11] illustrate that a balanced-budget rule can lead to aggregate instability. In particular, under such a rule it is possible for a steady state to be locally indeterminate, and therefore sunspot equilibria are possible. In this paper, I extend their analysis to investigate the possibility of chaotic equilibria under a balanced-budget rule. A global analysis reveals Euler equation branching which means that the dynamics going forward are generated by a differential inclusion of the form . Each branch alone will not imply interesting dynamics. However, by switching between the branches, I show that the existence of Euler equation branching in an arbitrarily small neighborhood of a steady state implies topological chaos in the sense of Devaney on a compact invariant set with non-empty interior (the chaos is “thick”). Moreover, the chaos is robust to small C¹ perturbations. This branching under a balanced-budget rule occurs independently of the local uniqueness of the equilibrium around the steady state(s).     

Fiscal policy and the Spanish business cycle

A main result of the RBC literature is that technological factors drive fluctuations of macroeconomic variables around its long-run growth path. Nevertheless, it has been shown that in some countries fluctuations of some fiscal variables may explain some of the business cycle fluctuations. In this paper I show that a result of this sort can be obtained for the Spanish economy. Specifically, I use both technological and fiscal shocks to reproduce the observed volatility of hours of work to output, hours of work to average productivity, and the negative correlation between hours and average productivity.     

QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy

This paper develops a DSGE model for an open economy and estimates it on euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features nominal and real frictions, as well as financial frictions in the form of liquidity-constrained households. The model incorporates active monetary and fiscal policy rules (for government consumption, investment, transfers and wage taxes) and can be used to analyse the effectiveness of stabilisation policies. To capture the unit root character of macroeconomic time series we allow for a stochastic trend in TFP, but instead of filtering data prior to estimation, we estimate the model in growth rates and stationary nominal ratios.     

A model with endogenously determined cycles, discounting and growth

Summary. This article reexamines the role of consumption in growth and emphasises the external effects of aggregate consumption, viewed as consumption standards, as an additional impediment in the growth process. These external effects raise the productivity of the individuals and are positively related to their valuation of the future. Conditions are established under which this results in a marginal value of wealth that is an increasing function of consumption. This brings new types of multiple steady states, local indeterminacies and cyclical motions. Imposing extra homogeneity restrictions, balanced growth solutions with endogenous impatience emerge. The possibility of multiple convergent paths is univocally related to endogenous discount effects. A comparison with a benchmark planning economy indicates an excessive value for the rate of time preference and emphasises its insufficient adaptation to future utility in a stationary setting. Discrepancies along the transition path that rest on endogenous impatience versus fixed discount appear in a non-stationary environment when the competitive balanced growth solution is indeterminate. Received: May 5, 1996; revised version: May 19, 1997     

Imperfectly competitive cycles with Keynesian and Walrasian features

We consider a multi-sector overlapping generations model with oligopolistic firms in the output markets and wage-setting trade unions in the labour markets. A coordination problem between firms creates multiple temporary equilibria which are either Walrasian or of the Keynesian unemployment type. There exist many deterministic and stochastic equilibrium cycles fluctuating between Keynesian recession and Walrasian boom periods with arbitrarily long phases in each regime. The cycles are in accordance with certain empirical regularities. Money is neutral and superneutral, but appropriate countercyclical fiscal policies stabilize the cycles in a textbook Keynesian way.