The impacts of energy insecurity on household welfare in Cambodia: Empirical evidence and policy implications

This study investigates the impacts of energy insecurity on household welfare in Cambodia. The notion of energy insecurity is not well understood in the literature as well as in local contexts. This study defines household energy insecurity as the status quo derived from the interplay of inadequate and insufficient energy consumption that prevents households from meeting basic energy needs. The notion of energy insecurity can only be well understood by investigation in the local context as it varies from place to place. Households facing insufficient energy consumption may forgo many other opportunities. Once energy security has been defined in the Cambodian context, the study employs multiple regression models using the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey Data (2015) to investigate the impacts of household energy insecurity. The study confirmed that energy insecurity has enormous negative impact on welfare of the households, with a further negative impact on the human capital formation of the children. The findings will lead to policy implications to improve household energy security, and thus impact economic, social, and environmental development.     

Natural capital, subjective well-being, and the new welfare economics of sustainability: Some evidence from cross-country regressions

The measurement of natural capital and its management during the economic development process are important aspects of the capital approach to sustainable development. However, the assessment of social welfare in terms of genuine savings (or changes in total wealth per capita) is arguably too limited. This paper tries to make a case for the incorporation of subjective well-being measures in debates about sustainable development by exploring the macro-level relationship between subjective well-being and natural capital in a cross-country setting. It is tested whether natural capital per capita is correlated with subjective well-being in a sample of fifty-eight developed and developing countries, using natural capital data from the World Bank's Millennium Capital Assessment. Bivariate regressions indicate that it is. When multiple regression models are estimated that include (a) major country-level determinants of subjective well-being (GNI per capita, social capital, income distribution, unemployment, inflation), and (b) regional dummy variables for ex-Soviet Union and Latin American countries, the positive correlation remains. The role of data outliers is carefully explored, and the sensitivity of the results to the use of alternative subjective well-being measures (i.e. life satisfaction, happiness, and a combined life satisfaction and happiness index) is investigated. This does not change the nature of the results. The findings arguably strengthen the case for a ‘new welfare economics of sustainability’ that takes subjective well-being measures into account.     

A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption,real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal

Mountain economies will have to play a central role in attaining the global pursuit of green economic growth as crucial bearers of ecosystems goods and services. However, these economies are not adequately represented in the development policy debates in spite of their fundamental importance towards global sustainable development. This study examines the inter relationships between energy consumption, output and carbon emissions in a developing mountainous economy using an augmented Vector Autoregression model. Time-series data over the period 1975–2013 is studied applying a multivariate framework using population and gross fixed capital formation as additional variables for Nepal. Testing for Granger causality between integrated variables based on asymptotic theory reveals a long-run unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from carbon emissions to GDP. We suggest that the government of Nepal can address energy poverty by accelerating the adoption energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and energy efficiency improvements to narrow the energy supply-demand gap. The opportunity to promote the uptake of decentralised off-grid renewable technologies in remote areas and the large scale development of hydropower at the national level also needs to be prioritized. Our results remain robust across different estimators and contributes to an emerging literature on the nexus relationships between energy consumption, income and carbon emissions in mountainous developing economies.     

Air conditioning and electricity expenditure: The role of climate in temperate countries

This paper investigates how households adopt and use air conditioning to adapt to climate change and increasingly high temperatures, which pose a threat to the health of vulnerable populations. The analysis examines conditions in eight temperate, industrialized countries (Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland). The identification strategy exploits cross-country and cross-household variations by matching geocoded households with climate data. Our findings suggest that households respond to excess heat by purchasing and using air conditioners, leading to increased electricity consumption. Households on average spend 35%–42% more on electricity when they adopt air conditioning. Through an illustrative analysis, we show that climate change and the growing demand for air conditioning are likely to exacerbate energy poverty. The number of energy poor who spend a high share of income on electricity increases, and households in the lowest income quantile are the most negatively affected.     

Modeling migration barriers in a two-sector framework: A welfare analysis of the hukou reform in China

The present paper constructs a two-sector labor market model for China featuring endogenous internal labor mobility and heterogeneous costs of migration induced by the Chinese household registration system (hukou). The main novelty of our model is to divide migrants into those with more family responsibilities and those with fewer to explain the empirical fact that almost all young people with rural hukou have migrated to cities, while people who stay in the rural area are older and have more family responsibilities. We conduct two policy experiments using the model: one experiment concerned with reducing costs of living for younger migrants and the other for older migrants. The main results are that the first policy would unambiguously increase social welfare, while the reduced-cost policy for older migrants would reduce poverty and inequality although some urban natives may experience a wage reduction.     

Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in environmental quality: An empirical analysis of deforestation

We use a panel data set of 59 developing countries over the 1972–1994 period to study the deforestation process. Relying on both parametric and semiparametric models, we examine nonlinearities and heterogeneity in the deforestation process. We first study the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and then analyze determinants of deforestation. Our data sample provides no evidence of an EKC. We also find that political institution failures may worsen the deforestation process in developing countries.     

Precautionary motivation and consumption insurance: Empirical analysis of household consumption behavior in rural China

Based on a household survey in rural China, this paper discusses parameters such as precautionary motive, excess sensitivity, consumption insurance, and inter-temporal substitution in the household consumption function in rural China. The conclusions of the paper indicate that there is a significant precautionary motive in household consumption in rural China, but the function of consumption insurance is very limited, and the consumption is also excessively sensitive to the income change. Such parameters are different among consumers within different groups. __________ Translated from Zhongguo Nongcun Jingji 中国农村经济 (Chinese Rural Economy), 2006, (4): 12–19     

Financial constraints and investment: assessing the impact of a World Bank credit program on small and medium enterprises in Sri Lanka

Abstract.  This paper examines the investment behaviour of a sample of small, credit-constrained firms in Sri Lanka. Using a unique panel data set, we analyze and compare the activities of two groups of small firms distinguished by their differential access to financing; one group consists of firms with subsidized loans from the World Bank, while the other group consists of firms without such subsidies. The paper shows that the program led to higher levels of investment for financially constrained firms. However, the evidence is inconclusive on whether the program improved economic efficiency.     

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia: Evidence of state‐specific heterogeneity

This paper estimates country‐wide and state‐level income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia for the period 1999Q1–2013Q2 using the National Electricity Market data and the autoregressive‐distributed lag model. The results suggest that the long‐run income and price elasticities are inelastic and are statistically significant with theoretically consistent signs. The country‐wide income and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.41 and ?0.38, respectively. It is also found that there exists state‐specific heterogeneity in both speed and magnitude of the electricity consumption adjustment in response to changes in income and electricity price. These results have important policy implications, including the need to use state‐specific elasticities in the scenario analysis of the energy pricing policy.     

From family security to the welfare state: Path dependency of social security on the difference in legal origins

We provide a new framework to analyze law and public finance from the perspective of difference in legal origins. The size of the welfare system differs from country to country. The security net provided by the family and other informal institutions also varies. Our two-sector model links these phenomena. We consider two cases of security. The first considers security achieved through intra-household resource redistribution in the traditional sector. The second case considers the welfare state, which taxes the modern sector. Switching from intense family security to an extensive welfare state model enhances growth because state taxation on the modern sector harnesses the potential productivity of the entire economy. In contrast, countries with low levels of family security should transition to a small welfare state model to sustain growth. This finding explains the different trends of welfare benefits in civil law and common law countries. The different sizes of the welfare state have their origins in family law, which differently stipulates family security between civil law and common law countries.     

Travel patterns and environmental effects now and in the future:: implications of differences in energy consumption among socio-economic groups

Travel patterns among different socio-economic groups in Sweden are investigated. It is shown that elderly persons, persons with low incomes and women in general do not travel extensively. Middle-aged persons, persons with high incomes and men travel much farther. Cars are the dominant transportation mode for all population groups. Aeroplanes are used mostly by high-income earners and men, while public transportation is mostly used by young people and women. Energy consumption for the different travel patterns differs substantially. Men with high incomes consume the most energy, with 94 000 MJ during one year, while elderly women consume 12 000 MJ. When compared to a calculated sustainable level of energy consumption for travel, most population groups are in excess. The level for sustainable energy consumption is calculated based on an assumed global potential for renewable energy of 360 EJ per year, divided equally among the global population. A certain share of this energy potential is supposed to be used for travelling. A scenario for 2020 is presented in which vehicle energy efficiency has increased and travel patterns have changed from what they are today. Sustainability can only be reached when both travel patterns and vehicle technology have changed radically. Differences in energy consumption for travel due to age and gender are likely to remain in the future. Scientific knowledge from the social domains seems to be important for devising efficient strategies for a sustainable society. Current focus on policy measures has been mainly on technical issues.     

Empirical research on time-varying characteristics and efficiency of the Chinese economy and monetary policy: evidence from the MI-TVP-VAR model

Based on the general time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and data mining technology, this study proposes a new extension mixed innovation time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregressive model and investigates time-varying characteristics and efficiencies of different shock effects on China’s monetary policy towards inflation and GDP. Using sample monthly data for 1979–2014, we utilize typical time points to illustrate the mechanisms between different economic variables via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and impulse response function. The empirical results show that the monetary transmission mechanism in China can be effective in the real economy, but with delay and efficiency leakage. The average delay and maximum efficiency can be measured through the MI model, which can capture accurate information of economic variables, effectively improving the precision of macroeconomic regulation and control. Meanwhile, the difference between the impacts of different channels is obvious; while the impact of interest rates is not significant, the impact of stock market is significant. The action mechanism between GDP and the inflation rate undergoes a gradual structural change, evidently displaying time-varying characteristics and a gradually weakening impact over time.     

Assessing the price and output effects of monetary policy in Vietnam: evidence from a VAR analysis

Using monthly data, we perform a vector-autoregressive analysis to measure the effects of monetary policy on the Vietnamese economy. We concentrate our attention on the period following the introduction of the Law on Central Bank in January 1998 (which brought the national monetary policy and its objectives in line with international practices). Contrary to previous studies on Vietnam, we find evidence suggesting that monetary policy (through the manipulation of interest rates) is an effective policy tool in stabilizing prices. However, credit growth tends to induce inflationary pressures. In addition, we find that an expansion of broad money supply leads to an increase in industrial production.     

Industrial development environment and innovation efficiency of high-tech industry: analysis based on the framework of innovation systems

This present paper studies the relationship between the industrial development environment (IDE) and the innovation efficiency (IE) of China’s high-tech industry. First, drawing upon insights from research on regional innovation systems and sectoral innovation systems, the paper proposes a definition of the IDE within which China’s high-tech industry exists. Then, by a factorial analysis, three main components reflecting the IDE are obtained: regional development conditions, regional consumption potential, and interactions between innovation actors. Furthermore, the impacts of various facets of the IDE on three kinds of IE are investigated through the DEA-Tobit regression approach. Based on the results, our analysis can provide information for policymakers to create a favourable environment for China’s high-tech industry.     

An empirical investigation of the balance of embodied emission in trade: Industry structure and emission abatement

By constructing the world panel dataset for the pollution emission embedded in international trade of 132 countries for the period between 1988 and 2008, we investigate whether the balance of embodied emission in trade (BEET) is consistent with the implication of pollution haven hypothesis (PHH). By using two differently constructed datasets, we are able to distinguish between the composition (i.e., changes in industry structure of international trade) effect and the technique (i.e., improvement in emission abatement) effect. We find that the composition effect is neither related with the income level nor the democracy level of countries. However, the empirical evidence, with consideration for the technique effect, provides a partial support that income level is negatively related with the BEET. Therefore, the BEET in fact has worsened for developing countries, but not by the composition effect assumed in the PHH.     

产业转移类型与承接地环境的耦合分析--基于泛长三角制造业的经验证据

以泛长三角地区的制造业为研究样本,探寻产业转移类型与承接地环境之间的内在耦合规律。研究发现,不同产业转移类型与承接地环境的相关性存在明显的差异,主要表现为：承接地的市场化水平对成本推动型产业转移呈现出显著的负影响,承接地的市场化程度越高,越不利于产业的承接;区域梯度差异不是所有类型产业转移的必要条件,在资源推动型产业转移中转移地和承接地间的产业梯度差异表现并不显著;此外,市场推动型产业转移的关联程度要显著高于成本推动型和资源推动型的产业转移。     

经济刺激计划与农村消费启动——基于我国农村居民收入分解的实证分析

文章在对我国农村居民收入构成进行分解的基础上,利用协整等计量工具时影响我国农村居民消费的各种因素进行了量化分析,并由此对照我国政府为应对世界经济危机而出台的一揽子经济刺激计划,分析经济刺激计划中各项具体政策措施在促进农村消费方面的作用.实证分析和政策分析的结果表明:(1)当前对农村居民消费具有显著影响的因素主要是农村居民经营性收入、工资性收入及国家财政农村救济费支出;(2)已出台的经济刺激计划,既有消费价格补贴等短期措施,也有旨在提高农村居民收入、完善农村社会保障、优化农村消费环境的长期性政策,时于促进农村消费具有很强的针对性;(3)未来促进农村居民消费仍需继续着眼于各种长期性政策.国家在加大财政支农力度时,应注重提高农林水事业费以外的支农支出比重;(4)县域经济是启动农村消费的关键.未来的政策着力点可以考虑将启动农村消费与发展县域经济、推动城乡一体化发展相结合.     

Inflation dynamics in open economies: Empirical evidence for G7 countries on the role of import prices and the cost channel

The supply side effects of both the nominal interest rate (i.e., the cost channel) and import prices on inflation are very important for the design of monetary policy. However, the empirical identification of the cost channel (traditionally associated with the advance payment of wages) has ignored import prices. We start by deducting a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) which shows that ignoring import prices in the estimation of the cost channel may lead to incorrect results. Taking this into account, we study the empirical relevance of the cost channel and import prices using the NKPC for the G7 countries. We test whether the estimation of the cost channel is affected when the price of imported inputs is considered; if it is relevant to extend the cost channel given that imports of final consumption goods are also paid in advance; if imports should be treated as inputs and/or consumption goods, and if there is an immediate or slow exchange rate pass-through. Empirical results indicate that the cost channel is present in imported consumption goods in particular, and import prices play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics.     

Analysis on demand‐ and supply‐side responses during the expansion of health insurance coverage in Vietnam: Challenges and policy implications toward universal health coverage

This study examines how the demand and supply of healthcare services have responded to the expansion of health insurance coverage in Vietnam by using biyearly provincial panel data from 2006 to 2014. The results of our analysis indicate significant progress towards universal health coverage (UHC) in Vietnam, with the expansion of health insurance coverage being accompanied by increases in admissions and inpatient days. However, some concerns remain. Our findings show a positive response of supply capacity only in terms of doctors and nurses at higher‐level hospitals (provincial hospitals), and none in other relevant aspects. Moreover, we find no positive response of the number of outpatient visits. Another concern is the issue of financial protection. The decline in out‐of‐pocket payments is not significant throughout our observation period, suggesting that lowering the cost of healthcare is not straightforward and that the expansion of health insurance coverage alone cannot achieve this. We believe that the Vietnamese experience has valuable implications for other emerging and developing countries, considering that the expansion of health insurance coverage is likely to increase utilization of healthcare services significantly and that the supply side needs to be prepared for the increase.