Tourism,terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models

This study investigates the impact of terrorist attacks and political violence on the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays in Tunisia. The dataset employed consists of monthly data that covers the period from January 2000 to September 2016, which includes several political and terrorist attacks in Tunisia and the region. Empirically, we investigate the true data generating process (DGP) of these two proxies of tourism activity by accounting for four statistical properties that characterize these series: (1) seasonality, (2) unit roots, (3) breaks, and (4) long memory behavior.Our empirical findings show strong evidence of stationarity, five breaks in the tourist arrival time series and spurious long memory behavior. By estimating a 3-state Markov switching model consisting of the mean, trend, and variance, we find that the Tunisian Jasmine revolution and two recent terrorist attacks, one at the Bardo National Museum on March 18, 2015 and the other at the tourist resort at Port El Kantaoui, Sousse on June 26, 2015, played an important role in influencing the tourism activity of the country. Our empirical findings show also that local shocks have a more important impact than international shocks in influencing tourism activity. Interestingly, we find that the effects of terrorist shocks have a long duration compared to political violence shocks. Several security, marketing, and economic policies have been proposed and discussed in the paper.     

Terrorism and tourism as logical companions

The symbiotic relationship between terrorism and tourism needs to be understood and acted on, not just in terms of security and marketing, but in terms of such factors as planning, site development, employment policies, political risk analysis and emergency management. This article looks at the relationship between tourism and terrorism from several perspectives. The political and economic impact of terrorism on tourism is assessed, including the sensitivity of the tourism industry to general political strife and the vulnerability of travellers and tourist facilities to terroristic activity. The nature of terroristic violence and the objectives of terrorist groups are evaluated to determine why and how attacks on tourists and facilities may fit the organizational and political objectives of terrorist groups. Finally, the article suggests how the industry and policy makers must proceed to reduce the vulnerability for tourists and the travel sector.     

Tourism implications of online response to terrorism

Individuals all around the world are under constant threat of terrorist attacks. Not surprisingly, terrorist attacks have a strong impact on tourism. However, tourism research is silent on how people respond online after terrorist attacks. Analyzing 154,390 tweets that were posted on Twitter after eight major terrorist attacks that occurred between November 24, 2016 and January 10, 2017, our results demonstrate that people show more anger-related compared to fear-related emotions online after terrorist attacks. We call for further research in tourism to understand how tourism managers and public policy makers can leverage social media after terrorist attacks.     

The Impact of the September 11 Attacks on Airline Arrivals and Conventions in Nine Major U.S. Cities

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to research and analyze the impact that the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks had on airline passenger arrivals and convention attendance in nine major U.S. cities. This study examined convention attendance and airline passenger arrivals from January 2000 to December 2002 of nine cities: gateway cities (Atlanta-Hartsfield International, Chicago-O'Hare International, Los Angeles-International, New York-JFK International), fly-in tourist destinations (Las Vegas-McCarran International, Orlando-International), and non-gateway cities (Houston-George Bush International, Phoenix-Sky Harbor International, and Seattle-International).     

A strategic framework for terrorism prevention and mitigation in tourism destinations

Tourism destinations and tourists have always been ‘soft targets’ for terrorist activities. Although it is widely acknowledged that it is no longer a question of ‘if’ terrorists will strike but rather a question of ‘when’, ‘how’ and ‘how prepared’ the destination is to deal with them, the crisis management frameworks proposed by the literature appear to offer little help to tourism authorities in the development and implementation of a strategy aiming at the prevention and mitigation of terrorist attacks. This paper first discusses the premise that Destination Management Organizations can and should play an active role in the co-ordination of tourism stakeholders in addressing the threat of terrorism. Then, based on the analysis of interviews with 16 experts on terrorism and tourism, it offers a framework for the development and implementation of a destination-specific anti-terrorism strategy.     

Macro and non-macro explanatory factors of Chinese hotel stock returns

This study investigates the link between macro and non-macro explanatory factors and Chinese hotel stock returns. Macro variables include growth rates of industrial production and imports, discount rates, yield spread and inflation rate. In addition, growth rate of total foreign tourist arrivals (ΔTA) was introduced as another critical macro factor that may affect Chinese hotel stock returns, considering a tremendous growth of tourism in China. Empirical results indicated that the impact of ΔTA was positive, but insignificant. Thus, Chinese hotel stock returns were more sensitive to general macro variables. Non-macro events that could significantly impact Chinese hotel stock returns encompass financial crises, natural disasters, wars, terrorist attacks, political events, and sports mega-events. Discussions and conclusions are provided to guide hospitality investors.     

Terrorism and travel advisory effects on international tourism

The paper applies dynamic panel modeling to investigate the impact of terrorism and travel advice on global tourism. Annual arrivals data for 49 destinations and 15 leading countries of origin for the period 2010–2014 are used. Results indicate that casualties or fatalities from terrorism, absent travel advice, significantly reduce tourism demand. However, casualties (fatalities) combined with travel advice have a relatively larger adverse impact on tourism demand. The effects identified, however, are sensitive to country characteristics. Casualties (fatalities) as well as travel advice significantly weaken tourism demand for low-income countries but have no significant effect in high-income countries.     

Tourist security,terrorism risk management and tourist safety

Tourists are easy targets for terrorist activities, especially with the rise of lone wolf attacks. Drawing on the example of the 2015 Sousse (Tunisia) shootings, and using a conceptual framework informed by tourist security, terrorism risk management including terrorism risk assessment, communication and due care, we analyse the management of the terror induced security risks, and the factors influencing this process. This is achieved through a first-in-the field tourism study that applies narrative analysis to legal discourse. The study reveals that tourist security was compromised by a lack of terrorism risk communication, poor policing, and by limited integration of counter-terrorism strategies, particularly the inadequate implementation of environmental mitigation. We discuss the implications for terrorism risk assessment, management and communication and consider key propositions around tourist security responsibilities (e.g. due care). Future avenues for research are highlighted.     

Managing the Aftermath of Terrorism

Abstract

This paper discusses the impact of official travel advisories warning citizens about the dangers of travel to countries near to those which have experienced terrorist attacks. The issues are considered within a Southeast Asian context, using the example of the bombings on the Indonesian island of Bali in 2002 which had serious implications for its neighbours. Particular attention is given to the consequences for Singapore which found its previously unchallenged reputation for safety being questioned. Advice given by selected governments and the reactions of the relevant tourism authorities are reviewed, revealing the problems confronted by the industry in these circumstances and possible response strategies. Terrorism is shown to have the potential to damage place images and visitor arrivals beyond the particular location where it occurs, and travel advisories may contribute to this process with political repercussions.     

Safety,security and peace tourism: The case of the DMZ area

It comes as no surprise that peace and tourism is an important topic today in tourism literature. Despite the strength of global tourist demand, many destinations, especially in the developing world, are facing fluctuations in tourist arrivals, due to unsafe political conditions. This study discusses the symbiosis between tourism and peace and its opposite, war, and the likely impacts of each condition on several tourist destinations. A turbulent security environment, caused by international and civil wars, coup d'etat and terrorist attacks has already demonstrated its negative impact on tourism development in many countries around the world (Taylor & Quayle, 1994). The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between safety, tranquility, peace, and successful tourism, using surveys completed by both international and domestic tourists. More specifically, it is about the effects of the absence of safety, security and peace on domestic and international tourism in the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) area. The general findings demonstrate that the subjects of the study view the implication of the existence of a peaceful environment on tourism favourably.     

Time-varying impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country

Although the relationship between uncertainties and tourism has been widely discussed, the time-varying impacts of uncertainties on tourism have been ignored. This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between two global and domestic uncertain shocks (namely, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risks (GPR)) with Chinese inbound tourism using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. The empirical results show that uncertain shocks on tourist arrivals have significantly time-varying features, and the direction of the effect changes. The impact gradually weakens with the increase in the lag period. However, the impacts are heterogeneous depending on the uncertain shocks. Additionally, the effects of major event shocks on tourism differ. The uncertainty of the 9/11 terrorist attack had the shortest impact on tourism, while the impact on tourism was greater for geopolitical risks than for economic policy uncertainty during the global financial crisis. These findings provide new insights for policy holders and relevant investors into the mentioned relationships.     

The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events

This study uses panel regression tests to examine the response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events in Taiwan. Hotel performance measures are revenue (revenue per available room and occupancy rate), profitability (return on assets and return on equity) and stock performance. The crises were the earthquake on September 21, 1999 (the 9/21 earthquake), the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the US (the 9/11 terrorist attacks) and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on April 22, 2003 (the SARS outbreak). This study makes four major contributions. First, test results confirm that international tourism development (ITD), proxied by the growth of total inbound tourist arrivals, has a more direct influence on hotel sales and profitability than it does on hotel stock performance. Second, this study identifies that the absence of a strong tie between ITD and hotel stock returns that was found in previous studies is due to the time-varying discount rate caused by investors’ changing expectations for the prospect of future cash flows from holding hotel stocks. Third, this study finds new evidence that while the poor performance of hotel stocks caused by the 9/21 earthquake and the 9/11 terrorist attacks was attributed to the loss of hotel sales revenue, the adverse effect of the SARS outbreak on hotel stock returns is attributed not only to decreased hotel sales revenue but also to the increased discount rate. Lastly, this study is the first to investigate whether the response of hotel stock returns to ITD depends on the state of economy and concludes that the response of hotel stock performance to ITD in business cycle contraction is statistically different from that in business cycle expansion. Further, although the influence of ITD on hotel stock performance is still irrelevant during expansion periods, ITD can significantly enhance hotel stock returns during contraction periods.     

Terrorism,Seasonality, and International Air Tourist Arrivals in Central Florida

The Orlando International Airport (OIA) is growing in its importance in the regional tourism of Central Florida. This study provides some explanation for the fast growth of the OIA international passenger traffic by developing a multiple regression model. Five variables are identified as significantly related to the passenger arrivals at the OIA. The positive relationship between the economic performance of other industrialized countries and the OIA international arrivals is consistence with the hypothesis that income is positive determinant in travel decision. The increasing hijacking incidents in Europe and the Middle East is found to have a destination substitution effect between Orlando and European/Middle East. Hijacking may have encouraged Canadian and European tourist to switch from European/Middle East destinations to the United States in general, and to Orlando in particular. The composite tourism supply variable, represented by the number of Orlando hotel/model rooms, is found to be positively related to the OIA international arrivals. The two dummy variables of seasonality represent the natural component of the tourism supply of Orlando, its pleasant winter and early spring sunshine. The model indicates that this natural factor contributes significantly to the international passenger arrivals.     

Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals

This paper introduces an optimized Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSS) algorithm for identifying leading indicators. Exploiting European tourist arrivals data, we analyse cross country relations for European tourism demand. Cross country relations have the potential to aid in planning and resource allocations for future tourism demand by taking into consideration the variation in tourist arrivals across other countries in Europe. Our findings indicate with statistically significant evidence that there exists cross country relations between European tourist arrivals which can help in improving the predictive accuracy of tourism demand. We also find that MSSA has the capability of not only identifying leading indicators, but also forecasting tourism demand with far better accuracy in comparison to its univariate counterpart, Singular Spectrum Analysis.     

Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism

Personal security is a major concern for tourists. Most tourists will seek safe and secure destinations and avoid those that have been plagued by terrorism. This research quantifies the relationship between terrorism and tourism in 95 different countries and territories using international tourism demand models. After controlling for income, we find there is no long run effect of terrorism on international tourism demand and the short run effect is quite limited from a global perspective using panel data models. Only nine countries out of the 95 show a long run impact of terrorism on tourism and 25 countries out of the 95 show a short run impact using time series models, implying that international tourism is resilient to terrorism. The influence of terrorism is diverse in destinations with different political instability, income levels and tourism intensities.     

The Impact of Sports Events on Inbound Tourism in New Zealand

Sports events are an instrument of destination marketing for host countries. Over the past 40 years, New Zealand has held sports events such as the Commonwealth Games and the America's Cup and many international tourists have visited New Zealand during these events. While past studies have examined the economic value of such tourism at a generic level, the impact of mega sports events at more specific levels is unknown. Thus, this study examines not only the impact of eight mega sports events upon New Zealand's international tourist arrivals over the 1983–2005 period at the overall level, but also the number of tourist arrivals from participating countries for each event. Results suggest that the 1990 Commonwealth Games, the 2000 America's Cup (yachting) and the 2005 British and Irish Lions Tour (rugby) had a significant impact on tourist arrivals overall and on arrivals from each participating country.     

Impact of unexpected events on inbound tourism demand modeling: evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea

This paper attempts to evaluate how South Korea’s inbound tourist arrivals from China have been affected by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak. Using quarterly data, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) is performed to capture the influence of the MERS outbreak. Estimation results of the general ADLM reveal that the MERS outbreak has a significant adverse impact on the total inbound tourist arrivals from China, as well as on tour arrivals; however, for business, official, and other types of tourist arrivals, its influence is insignificant. Furthermore, the error correction model is estimated to demonstrate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics among the underlying variables. Our analysis not only provides empirical evidence on evaluating the impact of the MERS outbreak on different types of tourism demand, but also identifies main determinants and suggests appropriate model specifications for each type of tourist arrivals.     

The Role of Market Orientation in Managing Crises During the Post-Crisis Phase

SUMMARY

The tourism business around the world, as one of the most susceptible and vulnerable sectors, must often manage and survive global crises. In recent years the global tourism industry has experienced major crises, such as terrorist attacks, political instability, economic recession, biosecurity threats and natural disasters. The most well-known cases bear testimony to the fact that crises are not new to the tourism industry. However, tourism management capabilities and abilities to deal with complex and critical situations are limited. The time has come to develop an understanding of factors that can help tourism businesses prepare a way of getting through such crises by examining the role of market orientation and its antecedents during a post-crisis phase. This paper is concerned with the effects of several organizational factors on market orientation in airlines during the post-crisis phase of the terrorist attacks of “9/11.” The results indicate that top management factors, interdepartmental factors and organizational systems have a positive effect on market orientation after a crisis has occurred.     

The impact of terrorism on European tourism

This paper estimates the influence of terrorist attacks on European tourism through the short-term post hoc response of the airline industry and passengers. We use a seasonally-adjusted ARMA-GARCH methodology on unique datasets that examine changes in tourism as measured by ASKs, seats filled and changes in both fares and revenues. Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions; however, this response varies substantially based on the flight origin and ticket-type purchased. We found that business travel slows substantially due to duty of care legislation for corporate transport. While we found evidence indicating substantial airline fare reductions, in the majority of investigated cases this response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand and flows across varying ticket types.     

The impacts of temporary but anticipated tourism spending: An application to the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games

An extensive literature attempts to identify the economic impact of tourism expenditure. While Input-Output methods have been widely applied these may not always be appropriate for such applications and there is a growing use of more flexible Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approaches. This paper uses a multi-period Scottish CGE model to estimate the system-wide effects of the temporary tourism expenditure related to the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. We quantify the sensitivity of our results to model specification, focusing in particular on how investment and consumption decisions are made and shifted over time to accommodate the temporary tourism shock. As part of this analysis we identify the pre-announcement period that optimises the present value of the economic impact. Whilst the empirical results apply to a specific event, our results have implications for similar analyses applied to mega events and other temporary phenomena affecting tourism expenditure, such as terrorism attacks or epidemics.