Appraising the Economic Impact of the “Opening up to Mainland Chinese Tourist Arrivals” Policy on Taiwan with a Tourism-CGE Model

The purpose of this study is to establish a tourism-CGE model to appraise the “opening up to Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals” policy on Taiwan. Using the model, this study suggests that the multiplier effect of the Mainland Chinese tourists’ expenditure in Taiwan is 1.378, which is slightly lower than that for tourists from Japan and Korea. With 1,000 (3,000) Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals per day, labour demand for about 48,000 (144,000) people would be created, along with 38,146 (114,463) million New Taiwan dollars volume of product, which would account for about 0.354% (1.063%) of annual GDP growth. The results also reveal that the policy would not necessarily contribute positively to every industry, and industrial restructuring might occur. Finally, some tourism policy recommendations are discussed.     

An empirical study of inbound tourism demand in China: a copula-GARCH approach

This paper proposes new models for analyzing the volatility and dependence of monthly tourist arrivals to China applying a copula-GARCH approach. A desegregation of the top six origins of China inbound tourists from the period January 1994 to December 2013 is used in this study. The empirical results show that there is a strong seasonal effect in all cases and ?????? some habit persistence on monthly tourist arrival growth rate for South Korea, Russia, the United States (US), and Malaysia. Second, the volatilities of arrival growth rates to China are impacted significantly by their own short- and long-run effects, except for Russia and South Korea. Only short-run shock affects Russian arrivals while only long-run shocks are affecting South Korea arrivals. Third, the conditional dependence among different source countries is found to be positive and significant, but the conditional dependence for all considered pairs is low. Moreover, there is extreme co-movement (tail dependence) between the six major tourism source countries, suggesting the pairwise of international tourist arrivals shows a related increasing or decreasing pattern during extreme events. Implications are discussed and recommendations provided.     

The gloom of the COVID-19 shock in the hospitality industry: A study of consumer risk perception and adaptive belief in the dark cloud of a pandemic

As the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads globally, the hospitality industry is at the heart of implementing social distancing, a measure demonstrated to be effective in flattening the epidemic curve. Informed by the perceived risk theory, this research examines how the customer’s perception of the shock of the coronavirus pandemic impacts on their beliefs, and how their beliefs could influence their anticipated emotions (negative and positive) which could affect their future desire towards visiting restaurants. Structural equation modelling was used to understand the research constructs’ associations. This study provides two key suggestions: (i) that the hospitality industry is built on trust from their customers by supporting and resourcing consumers’ self-protection behaviour and adoptive belief, and (ii) that the economic influence and the continuous uncertainty and transformation of the restaurant business need the enhancement of localisation strategies, practices and performance.     

Tourism and Hospitality Higher Education in Taiwan

SUMMARY

The binary system of tourism and hospitality higher education in Taiwan divides into academic higher education and technical/vocational(institute/university of technology, five-year junior college and two-year junior college). The development of tourism and hospitality higher education in Taiwan is closely related to the growth in the domestic tourist market and the social development of the country. The earliest tourism education began in 1965. This long process of development has given Taiwanese tourism and hospitality education a multifaceted outlook and is generally divided into three periods: the origination period (1946–1968), the growth period (1969–1991), and the competition and adjustment period (1990–present). Over the past years, tourism and hospitality higher education in Taiwan has witnessed rapid growth in numbers, increasing diversification in program names, and with junior colleges and institutes of technology transforming themselves into universities of technology. Current tourism and hospitality programs are boosting global competitiveness for the future hospitality market in Taiwan, with careful positioning clear goals, curriculum planning, integrating hospitality/tourism curriculum, alliances and collaboration, and strengthening tourism and hospitality research.     

Evaluating impact of air pollution on China’s inbound tourism industry: a spatial econometric approach

Despite widespread concern about China’s air pollution crisis, very few studies have quantitatively explored its impact on China’s inbound tourism industry. From a spatial econometric perspective, this paper has quantified the direct, indirect and total effects of air pollution on international tourists visiting China, using panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during the period 2001–2013. The results confirm that air pollution has a significant direct negative effect on international tourists visiting China. There exists apparent spatial autocorrelation for provincial-level air pollution in China. Spatial Durbin model shows evidence that air pollution in the neighbouring provinces has a significant negative impact on international tourist arrivals in the local province. The spillover effect is even larger than the direct effect. When air pollution in the neighbouring provinces becomes serious, international tourists are unlikely to travel to the local province. The findings of this study have implications for local governments to strengthen inter-governmental environmental management to invigorate tourism market.     

Visitor perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk: The case of Table Mountain National Park,Cape Town

This paper investigates tourist perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk whilst visiting Table Mountain National Park (TMNP) in Cape Town in June and July 2008. The study examined survey data of 303 domestic and international tourists during their visit to TMNP. A linear regression analysis revealed that although visitors had concerns about their personal safety they are still likely to return to TMNP and recommend it to other people. In addition, visitor attitudes towards risk did not influence perceptions of crime-safety and its effect on their intentions to revisit or recommend TMNP. The results also show that respondent's individual characteristics such as age, nationality, and purpose of visit influenced their perceptions of crime-safety. Perceptions that TMNP is unsafe tended to increase with respondent's age. Respondents on holiday were more likely to perceive TMNP as safer than those on business or visiting friends and relatives. The study's findings add to the literature by offering more insight on tourist perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk and their impact on tourist behaviour. Various tourist-crime prevention measures to enhance visitor safety at national parks are also recommended to the tourism industry and law enforcement agencies.     

Impact of unexpected events on inbound tourism demand modeling: evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea

This paper attempts to evaluate how South Korea’s inbound tourist arrivals from China have been affected by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak. Using quarterly data, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) is performed to capture the influence of the MERS outbreak. Estimation results of the general ADLM reveal that the MERS outbreak has a significant adverse impact on the total inbound tourist arrivals from China, as well as on tour arrivals; however, for business, official, and other types of tourist arrivals, its influence is insignificant. Furthermore, the error correction model is estimated to demonstrate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics among the underlying variables. Our analysis not only provides empirical evidence on evaluating the impact of the MERS outbreak on different types of tourism demand, but also identifies main determinants and suggests appropriate model specifications for each type of tourist arrivals.     

Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.     

Corporate brand strategy: Drivers and outcomes of hotel industry’s brand orientation

The MNC resellers are vastly competitive and capital-intensive. Based on the corporate brand orientation, the objective is to investigate how the individual dimensions of hotel industry’s brand orientation can improve a corporate experience and subsequently create superior hotel performance and retailer preferences. A model of the integration of the hotel industry’s brand orientation was tested in a survey conducted among MNC resellers from hospitality industry. Structural equation modelling was applied to gain insight into the various influences and relationships. The research makes two main contributions. It makes a theoretical contribution by classifying the integration of the hotel industry’s brand orientation for hospitality industry and from this extrapolate key suggestions for further study. The continuous evolution and economic influence of the hospitality industry require the application of innovative marketing practices.     

Taking the Classroom into the Real World

Abstract

The increase in number of international tourist arrivals, the holding of the Olympic Games in Sydney in 2000, and a solid domestic tourism industry has had an effect on the meetings, incentive, convention, and exhibition (MICE) industry in Australia, worth A$7 billion in 1996/1997. To meet this increasing demand from the industry to train professionals for the tourism and hospitality industry, some institutions are offering specialized subjects to prepare students for employment in the MICE industry. One of the inherent problems in teaching such a subject is to introduce a practical and experiential element. This has been addressed successfully over the past two years by offering students an opportunity to take part as delegates attending a specifically designed conference while spending a night at one of the many 5-star international hotel properties with convention facilities on the Gold Coast. In 1999, 135 students stayed at an international 5-star hotel, with the hotel cooperating with the university to provide a full-day conference on conference management, including hotel inspections and workshops. Students were assessed on their experiences at the hotel with the completion of a semester report and a questionnaire on the perceptions of their stay. Almost three-fourths of the students surveyed responded that they had benefited from the visit by being able to apply theoretical concepts to real life scenarios and that this enhanced their individual understanding of the subject.     

Are Visitor Arrivals to China Stationary? An Empirical Note

The tourism industry is one of the earliest industries in China to be opened up to the world, with a more open market and relatively sufficient competition. In this article, we use the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey–Fuller (SURADF) tests advanced by Breuer, McNown, and Wallace [(2001). Misleading inferences from panel unit-root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity. Review of International Economics, 9(3), 482–493] to investigate whether visitor arrivals to China are stationary for the period 1995–2010. The empirical results from numerous conventional unit root tests indicate that tourist arrivals from 18 countries studied are non-stationary; however, when Breuer et al.'s (2001) panel SURADF tests are conducted, evidence of a unit root in visitor arrivals is found in only 13 countries. From these results, one particularly important policy implication for China emerges.     

Tourist arrivals,energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism

Sustainable tourism management policies should aim at maximising economic benefits from tourist arrivals while minimising associated adverse impacts on the environment. This study assesses the short-run and long-run relationships between tourist arrivals, per capita economic output, emissions, energy consumption and capital formation, citing Nepal as a specific case study. We developed four hypotheses and tested them using time-series econometrics based on the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality tests. The results provide strong evidence of an economy driven tourism sector where expansion in economic output leads to expansion in tourist arrivals. More tourist arrivals, in turn, generate positive impacts on gross capital formation. Energy consumption negatively affects tourist arrivals, calling for increased attention towards improving energy efficiency and energy diversity. We conclude that national policies to increase tourist arrivals should be integrated with national energy and environmental policies in order to facilitate the transition towards a sustainable tourism sector.     

State dependence in the influence of monetary policy regime shifts on hospitality index returns

Previous research studies reveal that changes in monetary policy can significantly affect hospitality stock returns. This paper makes another contribution by showing that the impact of shifts in the Fed monetary policy regime on US hospitality index returns varies to a great extent in the different stages of business cycle and under different credit market conditions. Shifts in the Fed monetary policy regime are measured by directional changes in the discount rate (DR) and directional changes in the federal funds rate (FFR). In particular, the significant influence of monetary policy regime shifts on hospitality index returns depends on the state of economy. The significant influence of DR exists only during periods of business cycle contraction. In addition, although US hospitality index returns respond significantly to FFR under both business cycle expansion and contraction, the size of the response is substantially larger and more statistically significant during periods of business cycle contraction. Finally, the impact of both DR and FFR on hospitality index returns depends on the credit market conditions, especially when the credit market is tight.     

Marginal economic impacts of inbound tourism to Taiwan and policy evaluation†

This paper presents the economic impact estimation for international visitors to Taiwan using an Input–Output Model to demonstrate the differences of economic contribution by market segments. Economic impacts are compared based on visitor segments by country of residence and travel purpose. The results indicated that high spenders contributed two to three times more expenses in Taiwan than low spenders. In 2000–2001, excluding airfares, business visitors from North America (US$1,360), Japanese sightseers (US$1,323) and Singapore/Malaysia sightseers (US$1098) were the top three segments in terms of per person per trip expenditure, whereas tourists from Korea with a purpose of visiting friends and relatives spent approximately US$314 per party per trip. Type I multipliers on sales, personal income and value added were similar across all visitor segments. Type I jobs to sales multiplier, however, had stronger variation by segments, depending on the relative composition of different items/services that visitors consumed during the trip. Policy implications are proposed for the Taiwan national tourism policy, “Doubling Tourist Arrivals Plan”, which aimed to increase inbound tourism from 2.7 million person visits in 2002 to 5 million person visits by 2008. It is suggested that multiple indicators, such as length of stay, segment shares, and daily spending by individual visitor segments, should be concurrently incorporated in the policy formulation and evaluation process. Relying on one measurement objective, such as 5 million yearly visits, is inadequate in determining the overall achievement and efficiency of tourism policies.     

The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events

This study uses panel regression tests to examine the response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events in Taiwan. Hotel performance measures are revenue (revenue per available room and occupancy rate), profitability (return on assets and return on equity) and stock performance. The crises were the earthquake on September 21, 1999 (the 9/21 earthquake), the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the US (the 9/11 terrorist attacks) and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on April 22, 2003 (the SARS outbreak). This study makes four major contributions. First, test results confirm that international tourism development (ITD), proxied by the growth of total inbound tourist arrivals, has a more direct influence on hotel sales and profitability than it does on hotel stock performance. Second, this study identifies that the absence of a strong tie between ITD and hotel stock returns that was found in previous studies is due to the time-varying discount rate caused by investors’ changing expectations for the prospect of future cash flows from holding hotel stocks. Third, this study finds new evidence that while the poor performance of hotel stocks caused by the 9/21 earthquake and the 9/11 terrorist attacks was attributed to the loss of hotel sales revenue, the adverse effect of the SARS outbreak on hotel stock returns is attributed not only to decreased hotel sales revenue but also to the increased discount rate. Lastly, this study is the first to investigate whether the response of hotel stock returns to ITD depends on the state of economy and concludes that the response of hotel stock performance to ITD in business cycle contraction is statistically different from that in business cycle expansion. Further, although the influence of ITD on hotel stock performance is still irrelevant during expansion periods, ITD can significantly enhance hotel stock returns during contraction periods.     

What determines international tourist arrivals in India?

Using data for 18 major tourist originating countries to India from 2001 to 2015, this study examines the major determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. The results indicate that past experiences of the tourists, per capita income in the tourist originating country, relative costs of living between India and the country of origin, and the level of infrastructure development in India are key determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. Furthermore, both transportation and communication infrastructure are important in attracting tourists to India. In particular, evidence suggests that availability of road and air network and telephone connections has favourable impacts on international tourist arrivals in India. These results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables. These results have important policy implications.     

The internet and tourism‐part IV: TravelWeb

Abstract

The sporadic domestic political instability during the last decade, compounded with the ongoing international war on terrorism in Afghanistan and beyond, has created a substantial decline in tourist visits to Nepal. Safety and security are important aspects of travel destination choice and the perceived risk within Nepal and the South Asian region has mired the pace of international tourist arrivals. The objectives of this paper were to examine the state of tourism in Nepal and the negative repercussions of the political instability and international conflict that has thwarted the potential for growth.     

Understanding corporate philanthropy in the hospitality industry

This study makes a unique contribution to the corporate social responsibility literature, both from a theoretical perspective and corporate philanthropy (CP) perspective that has been under-researched so far. Specifically, it extends the investigation of the motives of CP to the hospitality industry in the emerging country of Taiwan and is the first examination of the determinants of CP in the hospitality industry based on the value enhancement (VE) and agency cost (AC) theories. Previous studies found that either AC or VE determinants, not both, play a major role in making philanthropy decisions. This study reveal new and interesting findings using the data from 13 publicly traded hospitality companies in Taiwan collected between 1996 and 2011. Panel regression test results show that both VE determinants (labor intensity and profitability) and AC determinants (board size and the ratio of independent directors to total directors) were found to be significant factors in explaining the discretionary behavior of CP in the hospitality industry. Furthermore, the lagged philanthropy-to-sale ratio was also significantly related to CP decisions in the hospitality industry in Taiwan, suggesting that the behavior of CP in the Taiwanese hospitality industry is persistent. The possible explanation is that changing philanthropy pattern may lead to market-adverse expectations and reactions and damage the reputation of companies.     

Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals

This paper introduces an optimized Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSS) algorithm for identifying leading indicators. Exploiting European tourist arrivals data, we analyse cross country relations for European tourism demand. Cross country relations have the potential to aid in planning and resource allocations for future tourism demand by taking into consideration the variation in tourist arrivals across other countries in Europe. Our findings indicate with statistically significant evidence that there exists cross country relations between European tourist arrivals which can help in improving the predictive accuracy of tourism demand. We also find that MSSA has the capability of not only identifying leading indicators, but also forecasting tourism demand with far better accuracy in comparison to its univariate counterpart, Singular Spectrum Analysis.