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1.
Research on the dynamics of tropical forest land use and cover change (LUCC) has focused on the three scenarios: (1) deforestation/degradation; (2) settled, degraded areas in recovery, and (3) sparsely settled, expansive, intact forest. Through examination of a central Quintana Roo, Mexico case study we propose a fourth scenario of a ‘sustainable landscape’: an inhabited, productively used, forested landscape that nonetheless shows little change or net gains in forest cover over the last 25 years. We use Landsat images to demonstrate a low incidence of net deforestation, 0.01% for the 1984–2000 period, the lowest recorded deforestation rate for southeastern Mexico. Institutional innovations such as an agrarian reform process that established large common property forests for non-timber forest product extraction, and later innovations such as sustainable forest management institutions have driven the outcome of low net deforestation, added to multiple organizational processes that promote sustainable land use.  相似文献   

2.
    
Achieving sustainable urban development (SUD) remains one of the most important goals for many countries. Numerous nations have made attempts to attain sustainable development (SD) by fixing one or more of the problems facing urban development, which has resulted in various approaches to SUD. However, a main issue that could help decision-makers deal effectively with SD needs to be emphasized.This study covers 10 topics that have recently become highly relevant to SUD:(1) A balanced approach to SUD, (2) Socio-cultural awareness, (3) Urban sprawl, (4) Economic urban development, (5) Transportation, (6) Urban renewal, (7) Mitigating greenhouse gases (GHG), (8) Urban vegetation, (9) Assessment systems, and (10) City structure and land use. The methodology is based on an overview of these themes via a critical reading of different publications, mostly from the last five years. This study classifies these topics both quantitatively and qualitatively in order to highlight hot-button issues at the domestic and international levels. The publications that were analyzed showed that Asian countries, especially China, are making changes towards SUD more than nations of other continents. The study concludes that transportation is the most prominent challenge in the field of SUD, followed by socio-cultural awareness. The concern of transportation and socio-cultural conscious issues can propel SUD forward and improve other problems related it.  相似文献   

3.
    
Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha−1 year−1 in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.  相似文献   

4.
    
Urbanization results in increasing impervious surfaces with the potential to threaten fragile environments and heighten flood risks. In the United States, research on the social processes driving urbanization has tended to focus on the twenty-first century, but less is known about how temporal trends arose from the spatial layout of the urban land upon which this growth was founded. To address this gap, we present a novel interdisciplinary synthesis using neighborhood-level census data in tandem with a satellite-derived annual land cover change time series to assess the role of race, affluence, and socioeconomic status in shaping spatio-temporal urbanization in the Houston metropolitan area from 1997−2016. Results from cross-sectional and temporal regression models indicate that while social dynamics associated with historical versus recent urbanization are related, they are not identical. Thus, while temporal change in Houston's urbanization is driven primarily by socioeconomic status, the social dynamics associated with spatial disparities in urbanization relate primarily to race, regardless of socioeconomic status. These results are noteworthy as urbanization in Houston does not fully comport with existing theoretical perspectives or with empirical findings nationally. Instead, we suggest these findings reflect the city’s politics and culture surrounding land use. Thus, beyond its important social and environmental implications, this study affirms the utility of fusing socio-demographic data with satellite remote sensing of urban growth, and highlights the value of the socioenvironmental succession framework for characterizing urbanization as a recursive process in space and time.  相似文献   

5.
    
Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy.  相似文献   

6.
    
The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.  相似文献   

7.
    
Adapting to climate change has become a pressing and urgent issue given the alarming rapidity with which climate changes is taking place. Agriculture is strongly conditioned by climatic factors, but subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable because smallholders do not have adequate financial resources to adapt to climate change. Agrobiodiversity provides one option for smallholders to adapt to climate change. Landraces developed in the western region of Santa Catarina State, Brazil, are part of a deliberate strategy by smallholders to achieve a state of food sovereignty and independence from commercial sources of hybrid seed. The ability of smallholders to collectively conserve climate-adapted landraces indicates the depth of local knowledge and capability within local communities that can be drawn on to meet the future challenges of climate change.  相似文献   

8.
    
The protection of agricultural land and forests is a relatively new concept in Poland, and it began with forest protection in the 1920s. The first regulations on the protection of agricultural land were introduced only in the 1960s. Agricultural land and forests received comprehensive protection pursuant to the provisions of the Act of 26 October 1977 on the protection of agricultural land, forests and land recultivation. This legal act set the foundations for the protection of farmland and forests in successive decades.The aim of this study was to determine the influence of farmland and forest protection on spatial planning and to highlight the loss of agricultural and forest land resulting from conversion to other purposes. Legal regulations pertaining to spatial planning and the protection of agricultural and land forests were analysed. The scale of the problem was identified, and future land-use types were forecast based on the data developed by Statistics Poland (GUS). The existing spatial plans (municipal master plan - MMP) were analysed to determine the conversion loss index (CLI) associated with the conversion of agricultural land and forests to other uses. Legal regulations pertaining to the protection of agricultural land and forests were also analysed, and the extent of the relevant conversion measures was determined. The study demonstrated that urban development and the inevitable urbanization of rural areas contribute to the loss of agricultural and forest land that are converted to other uses.  相似文献   

9.
    
Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.  相似文献   

10.
    
Measuring the ability of a community to face climatic changes, or its adaptive capacity, is necessary in order to plan and guide development as the global climate continues to warm. One factor that has not been thoroughly addressed by previous attempts at measuring adaptive capacity is urbanization. This study looks to measure adaptive capacity in relation to urbanization, as many areas of the world are undergoing this rapid transition. An indicator system was created with land-use sensitive measures and applied to three different land use projection scenarios (A, BAU, and B − high, medium, and low growth, respectively) to 2030 and 2050 for two case study areas, Tamsui, Taiwan and West Palm Beach, USA. In Tamsui, the adaptive capacity decreased in all scenarios, but most dramatically for the high growth scenario. The low growth scenario decreased more slowly through each time slice. For West Palm Beach, the high growth scenario had the highest score in 2030, but declined in 2050. The medium growth Scenario BAU, also had a higher adaptive capacity score in 2030 than in 2050. The low growth Scenario B had a score that improved less dramatically but continued to rise through 2050. Scenario A would be ideal for short term gains, but its benefits would plateau in the long term. Scenario B, with conservation measures and more restricted growth would be the most ideal alternative. This study shows that urbanization has short term socioeconomic gains, but long term environmental consequences. The results also successfully incorporates the effect of land use change into an adaptive capacity indicator system, and can be applied in other localities expecting significant increases in urbanization.  相似文献   

11.
    
This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.  相似文献   

12.
    
This project examines the relationship between migration, population, and economic processes, and forest cover change in Mexico from 2001 to 2010. Using multiple regression analyses with remotely-sensed, significant (p < 0.10) change in woody vegetation from 2001 to 2010 as our dependent variable, we explore how environmental, migration, demographic, and economic indicators at the national and sub-national biome scales are associated with forest cover change. Results highlight the importance of international migration in forest cover change, demonstrating that international (and internal) migration processes should also be included in LU/CC research and deforestation policy.  相似文献   

13.
The EU offers a complex system of rural development interventions as part of its Common Agricultural Policy. A Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) has been developed for the programming period 2007–2013 in response to challenges faced with the evaluation of rural development measures in earlier programming periods.Statistical and multivariate analysis of CMEF baseline (regional characteristics) and input (expenditure) indicator data at the NUTS2 subdivision level is used to compare four typical expenditure allocation patterns (Competitiveness, Environment, Rural Viability, Equal Spending) in terms of associated regional characteristics and development trends.The results suggest expenditure priorities are generally in line with regional needs and that there are some positive development trends, for example higher increase of agricultural labour productivity in the Competitiveness Group, while for environmental topics the level of data required remains unsatisfactory for trend assessment. 17% of the regions have a budget allocation pattern deviating from other regions with similar characteristics, which could indicate ineffective priority setting. Consistent CMEF data over multiple programming periods would be desirable to support the relationships found and to facilitate time series analysis, but this seems questionable given that the European Commission has discontinued the CMEF in 2014 with further adaptations for the 2014–2020 programming period underway.  相似文献   

14.
In the context of climate change, adaptation to climatic extremes, such as drought, has attracted worldwide attention, yet many practical adaptation strategies need to be examined at the local level. Based on a case study of the village of Beidian, located in a drought-prone region in northern China, this study demonstrates that when faced with multiple pressures of regional climate change, drought risk and rural poverty, reasonable adjustments in land use patterns can serve as an effective adaptation strategy in the agricultural sector. We used household questionnaires, in-depth interviews with village managers, and land use surveys at the farming plot level to quantify the relationship between land use change and drought mitigation effects. Our findings indicate that in the past decade, the farming practices in Beidian have transformed from a complete reliance on the winter wheat–summer corn rotation to a new diversified mode of apple as the main crop and corn and coarse cereals as the subsidiary crops. The current farming mode is proven to possess a stronger adaptive capacity to drought due to its higher water-saving efficiency and economic benefit, which facilitates rural poverty reduction and socio-economic development. This study presents a feasible approach to address adaptation strategies at the local level, which provides policymakers with information on how to best support farm-level adaptation and to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climatic extremes within the broader context of climate change.  相似文献   

15.
    
The Special Issue (SI) “Environmental Risk Mitigation for Sustainable Land Use Development” presents seventeen interrelated papers addressing the key concept of environmental risk mitigation and sustainable land use development. The issue argues that risk mitigation depends directly on the risk assessment analysis and the quality of applied measures. Therefore, the more precise are risk assessment conclusions, the better the risk mitigation measures would be. This collection of papers follows the vision of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (Sendai Framework) which states that the integration of sustainable development objectives into disaster risk mitigation and adaptation at all levels and at all stages of policy action are of paramount importance for the sustainability of our communities. The final purpose of the issue is to address the mutual roles of land use policy on environmental risk mitigation and adaptation, especially disaster risks.  相似文献   

16.
This study analyzes industrialization-induced agricultural land conversion (ALC) and its impact on land use change, food crop production, and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in peri-urban Gelan and Dukem, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. The study was carried out using a mixed method approach, i.e., qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected through various methods, e.g., household survey, expert interview, field observation, and focus group discussions method. Furthermore, a total of 223 interviews with farmers were conducted in Gelan and Dukem. Results show that large-scale industrial investments in the case study area led to substantial land use change, an appropriation of agricultural land, and an increase in the number of landless farmers, as well as farmers with small farmland holding sizes of less than one hectare. At the same time, the total crop production in the area decreased. The ‘development pace’ of the investments is often very slow. Only 28% and 37% of the licensed projects in Gelan and Dukem had entered their operational phases by the end of 2014, respectively. The study concludes that if the incomes of smallholder farmers are not enough to meet the needs of their families, they will need to create some income alternatives. Thus, considering the population growth and limited farmland, it is necessary to support various income-generating activities in order to improve farmers’ livelihoods rather than depending entirely on low productive methods such as traditional agricultural activities and non-mechanized production tools. It is worth mentioning that the results of this study will enhance the positive impacts of ALC and minimize the negative ones through land use planning and management tools. Furthermore, the main findings allow us to specify the gaps in access, utilization, and coverage due to wrong policy priority and institutional and technological variables.  相似文献   

17.
    
Agricultural land expansion is a prominent feature in today’s developing countries. It is associated with a structural pattern of land use in many remote land-abundant regions where large-scale commercial primary product activities coexist with increased concentration of smallholders in more marginal areas. The result may be boom-bust cycles of development. If these phenomena are widespread across developing countries, then long-run expansion of agricultural land could be associated with lower levels of real income per capita, which may also fluctuate with prolonged expansion. A panel analysis conducted over 1961–2015 for 98 developing economies fails to reject this hypothesis. Policies should aim to decouple socio-economic gains through agricultural development from continued land expansion, and greater investments are needed to support smallholder agriculture, land distribution and livelihoods in these areas.  相似文献   

18.
Over the last two decades, extensive literature has examined the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP), a program that was launched in late 1990s to mitigate the environmental effects of agricultural production and reduce rural poverty. However, little empirical evidence exists with regard to the impact of SLCP on rural households' sensitivity to nature-induced changes and environmental challenges. In this study, household-level data covering the period 1995–2010 from five Chinese provinces were used to examine the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity to climate change. The empirical results show that participation in SLCP significantly reduced farmers' sensitivity to climate change by reducing their dependency on land and natural resources for income, and by diversifying their livelihood options. Spatially, the results reveal that the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity vary across regions. Specifically, SLCP was found to have a ‘rate effect’ on farmers in the Northern regions and a ‘level effect’ on farmers in the Southern regions. Likewise, we found that the effect of SLCP differs considerably across income groups, with the effect on low- and middle-income groups being most significant. The results indicate that subsidy is the main pathway through which SLCP reduces farmers' sensitivity to climate change. In contrast, we found inclusive evidence about the indirect effect of SLCP farmers' sensitivity through the promotion of non-agricultural employment. These results carry major implications with regard to the effectiveness of ecological conservation programs and their mitigation potential through building farmers' resilience in China and ecologically fragile environments.  相似文献   

19.
This article investigates land transactions in relation to intended land use change from a micro-scale perspective. A better understanding of land transactions is important for understanding and influencing how land is used. The aim is to explore how the different aspects and their interrelations influence landowner behaviour during land transactions initiated by the government. The study draws on 42 explorative interviews with land purchasers, land policy experts, planning professionals and local farmers.The study shows that uncertainty, and feelings of justice are pivotal aspects during land transactions. Moreover, land transactions are co-evolving with the planning process. Landowners exhibit strategic behaviour based on their personal situation and their expectations on uncertain aspects. The strategies are strongly interrelated with the evolution of land use change. Land use changes are both input on which actors base their strategies, as well as the outcome of those strategies. The aspects found in this study were strongly interrelated and changed over time. Some aspects were context dependent, while others are expected to influence land transactions in general. In this light, the strength of a successful planner is twofold: on the one hand a planner needs to be a good communicator; on the other hand a planner should be able to deal with uncertainty and expectations during plan processes.  相似文献   

20.
    
Land use change is strongly modifying the traditional landscape of hilly productive Mediterranean sites. An example of these circumstances is the Langhe region (Piemonte, NW Italy), where woody plantations such as vineyards and orchards have been cultivated on hillslopes for centuries. In this paper we assess landscape changes occurred in the Diano study area (2651 ha) in the 1954–2000 period and we ascertain land use transition paths and rates of this rural ecosystem. Land use mapping obtained from object-oriented analysis of aerial photographs was used to quantify land use changes between 1954 and 2000. To examine the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change over time, a set of spatial statistics capturing different dimensions of landscape change was identified. An increase of landscape heterogeneity from 1954 to the present was observed due to the expansion of orchards and the fragmentation of field crops. A significant portion (55%) of current orchards surface is represented by former field crops, 24% by vineyards and 15% by forests. The strong expansion of hazelnut orchards concurred to the fragmentation of traditional rural landscape was dominated by vineyards, field crops and forests. Hazelnut orchards expansion was mainly located in places where grapes cultivation was less remunerative. A further expansion of hazelnut in the area should be planned, discussed and carefully monitored through change detection studies in order to avoid potential unsustainable use of the land.  相似文献   

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