Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed,Iran

Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.     

The consequences of changes of ownership for agricultural land use in Central European countries following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc

One of the key factors shaping contemporary land use in Central and Eastern Europe has obviously been change of ownership, with the collapse of the nationalised sector and restitution of farmland to owners giving rise to such changes. The work presented here therefore considers the main directions to ongoing changes in land use in the above region, under the influence of the processes of privatisation affecting the agricultural sector. Specifically, analyses conducted entailed assessment of the influence ownership processes have exerted on the area and structure of agricultural land, the size structure characterising farms and the situation on the market for land. The work took in five countries of the former Eastern Bloc, i.e. the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.     

快速经济发展下县级土地利用/覆被空间变化分析

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)是人类活动对自然环境施加影响的显著表现形式。本文以案例的形式,运用LUCC度量模型和LUCC转移矩阵分析研究区清新县2001-2007年的LUCC空间格局变化,并对全县土地利用/覆被进行了分区。研究结果表明,清新县2001-2007年面积增加最多的为林地,而减小最多的为耕地,期间全县综合土地利用/覆被动态度为2.77%、土地利用/覆被强度从2.163增至2.172;同时,清新县土地利用/覆被存在着较为明显的空间差异,全县土地利用/覆被区划可分为南部综合服务中心区、中部产业转移区和北部生态脆弱区三个功能区。     

Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural–urban interface

This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.     

Socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation: A comparison between different land use planning schemes and policy implications

Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy.     

Toward a systemic monitoring of the European bioeconomy: Gaps,needs and the integration of sustainability indicators and targets for global land use

The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.     

Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities

Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.     

Conversion of agricultural and forest land to other purposes in the context of land protection: Evidence from Polish experience

The protection of agricultural land and forests is a relatively new concept in Poland, and it began with forest protection in the 1920s. The first regulations on the protection of agricultural land were introduced only in the 1960s. Agricultural land and forests received comprehensive protection pursuant to the provisions of the Act of 26 October 1977 on the protection of agricultural land, forests and land recultivation. This legal act set the foundations for the protection of farmland and forests in successive decades.The aim of this study was to determine the influence of farmland and forest protection on spatial planning and to highlight the loss of agricultural and forest land resulting from conversion to other purposes. Legal regulations pertaining to spatial planning and the protection of agricultural and land forests were analysed. The scale of the problem was identified, and future land-use types were forecast based on the data developed by Statistics Poland (GUS). The existing spatial plans (municipal master plan - MMP) were analysed to determine the conversion loss index (CLI) associated with the conversion of agricultural land and forests to other uses. Legal regulations pertaining to the protection of agricultural land and forests were also analysed, and the extent of the relevant conversion measures was determined. The study demonstrated that urban development and the inevitable urbanization of rural areas contribute to the loss of agricultural and forest land that are converted to other uses.     

The role of public participation in encouraging changes in rural land use to reduce flood risk

Changes in rural land use to reduce flood risk are encouraged by governments in many countries, but they may face considerable opposition by land managers. Local participative processes are thought to help overcome opposition. This article presents an evaluation of an intensive participative process set up between land managers and governmental agencies following two severe floods in the transboundary Bowmont–Glen catchment in Scotland and England. A combination of interviews and documentary analysis is used. The research demonstrates that the participative process contributed to greater uptake of rural land use change and improved compliance with existing environmental policies. There were nevertheless low levels of social learning amongst participants. Two institutional designs for improving policy implementation are presented.     

The institutional drivers of sustainable landscapes: a case study of the ‘Mayan Zone’ in Quintana Roo, Mexico

Research on the dynamics of tropical forest land use and cover change (LUCC) has focused on the three scenarios: (1) deforestation/degradation; (2) settled, degraded areas in recovery, and (3) sparsely settled, expansive, intact forest. Through examination of a central Quintana Roo, Mexico case study we propose a fourth scenario of a ‘sustainable landscape’: an inhabited, productively used, forested landscape that nonetheless shows little change or net gains in forest cover over the last 25 years. We use Landsat images to demonstrate a low incidence of net deforestation, 0.01% for the 1984–2000 period, the lowest recorded deforestation rate for southeastern Mexico. Institutional innovations such as an agrarian reform process that established large common property forests for non-timber forest product extraction, and later innovations such as sustainable forest management institutions have driven the outcome of low net deforestation, added to multiple organizational processes that promote sustainable land use.     

Causal chains,policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

The need to enhance sustainable development of land use is more urgent than ever; specifically in developing countries where poverty and land degradation are often interlinked. To promote a common understanding of land use problems by experts, stakeholders and decision makers, it is essential to understand the system characteristics, including the complex feedbacks between drivers and impacts. To enhance sustainable development, appropriate policies need to be identified. In this paper, we analysed and compared seven case studies in Kenya, Mali, Tunisia, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, representing different biophysical and socio-economic conditions and challenges. We analysed Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) story lines of the land use problems, policy priorities and value trade-offs as identified by stakeholders and experts in National Policy Forums. Important drivers of land use change impacting main land use problems among the case studies were economic growth, technological development, immigration and agricultural intensification, in addition to existing policies. Of the latter the most important were related to domestic support through various forms of subsidies or access to credit, land tenure polices and liberalization policies. In the policy prioritization, the value trade-offs made by the National Policy Forums emphasize the environment rather than increased economic production. It is recognized that the environment needs to be improved to maintain and improve economic production in the long term, both in agriculture and in other sectors.     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

Quantifying and understanding land cover changes by large and small oil palm expansion regimes in the Peruvian Amazon

With rapid increases in global food demand and production, oil palm expansion constitutes a major emerging challenge for forest conservation in Amazonia and other tropical forest regions. This threat is evident in the Peruvian Amazon, where local and national incentives for oil palm cultivation along with growing large-scale investments translate into accelerated oil palm expansion. Environmental sustainability of oil palm cultivation in the Peruvian Amazon is contingent on policy incentives for expansion onto already-cleared lands instead of biodiverse, high carbon primary rainforests. Previous research indicates that while industrial plantations use less land area than local smallholders, companies have a higher tendency to expand into primary rainforests. However, the motivations behind these differing expansion scenarios remain unclear. In this study we combine data from optical and radar satellite sensors with training information, field discussions, and review of public documents to examine the policy incentives and spatial patterns associated with oil palm expansion by smallholders and industries in one of Peru’s most rapidly changing Amazonian landscapes: the Ucayali region of the city of Pucallpa. Based on our satellite-based land cover change analysis, we found that between 2010 and 2016, smallholders utilized 21,070 ha more land area for oil palm than industries but industrial expansion occurred predominantly in old growth forests (70%) in contrast to degraded lands for smallholders (56%). Our analysis of national policies related to oil palm expansion reveal policy loopholes associated with Peru’s “best land use” classification system that allow for standing forests to undergo large-scale agricultural development with little government oversight. We conclude that both sectors will need careful, real-time monitoring and government engagement to reduce old-growth forest loss and develop successful strategies for mitigating future environmental impacts of oil palm expansion.     

The effect of land use regulations on farmland protection and non‐agricultural land conversions in China

This paper examines the effect of the Prime Farmland Protection Regulation in protecting high quality farmland from urban development and the subsequent effect on non‐farmland conversion in China in the first decade after the Regulation came into effect (1995‐2005). The empirical evaluation is conducted with geo‐referenced panel data for the entire country. Results indicate that the rate of farmland conversion was reduced during 1995‐2000. About two‐fifths of the reduction results from the protection of farmland with high grain productivity. There is no evidence of the effectiveness of the Regulation in protecting farmland during the period 2000–2005, regardless of land quantity or quality. Farmland development was accompanied by a reduction in forests and grasslands during the period from 1995 through to 2005.     

Toward the sustainable development of urban areas: An overview of global trends in trials and policies

Achieving sustainable urban development (SUD) remains one of the most important goals for many countries. Numerous nations have made attempts to attain sustainable development (SD) by fixing one or more of the problems facing urban development, which has resulted in various approaches to SUD. However, a main issue that could help decision-makers deal effectively with SD needs to be emphasized.This study covers 10 topics that have recently become highly relevant to SUD:(1) A balanced approach to SUD, (2) Socio-cultural awareness, (3) Urban sprawl, (4) Economic urban development, (5) Transportation, (6) Urban renewal, (7) Mitigating greenhouse gases (GHG), (8) Urban vegetation, (9) Assessment systems, and (10) City structure and land use. The methodology is based on an overview of these themes via a critical reading of different publications, mostly from the last five years. This study classifies these topics both quantitatively and qualitatively in order to highlight hot-button issues at the domestic and international levels. The publications that were analyzed showed that Asian countries, especially China, are making changes towards SUD more than nations of other continents. The study concludes that transportation is the most prominent challenge in the field of SUD, followed by socio-cultural awareness. The concern of transportation and socio-cultural conscious issues can propel SUD forward and improve other problems related it.     

Changes in land use, land tenure, and landscape fragmentation in the Tijuana River Watershed following reform of the ejido sector

Changes in land use and land tenure can influence both physical fragmentation and ownership fragmentation of landscapes, with implications for biodiversity. In this study, we evaluated changes in land use and land tenure in the Tijuana River Watershed, a region of high biodiversity and endemism, following the implementation of a new Agrarian Law which allowed for privatization and sales of communal land (ejidos) beginning in 1992. In order to understand changes in land use and cover, we constructed maps from aerial photographs and Aster images and measured changes between 1994 and 2005. In order to understand changes in land tenure, we collected data from Mexican government sources on ejido land size, ownership, and sales, and we conducted 55 structured interviews with ejidatarios in the watershed. Our results demonstrate that land-use/cover change between 1994 and 2005 was dominated by an increase in urban area and grasslands, and a decrease in coastal sage scrub, chaparral, and, to a lesser degree, agriculture. In particular, the conversion of coastal sage scrub has left a far more fragmented landscape than existed in 1994. In addition, most of the ejidos in the watershed, as well as individuals interviewed, had participated in some stage of the land certification and titling process allowed by the new Agrarian Law, resulting in substantial changes in land tenure. However, land tenure security appeared to play a larger role than a desire to sell land and, contrary to studies from other regions, full title to the land was obtained in a range of urban and rural settings, rather than primarily on land closest to urban zones. Our results suggest that past predictions regarding future urban growth and fragmentation of native vegetation in the region have proven accurate and highlights regions of change that merit further study.     

The impact of urban expansion on agricultural land use intensity in China

China's urbanization has resulted in significant changes in both agricultural land and agricultural land use. However, there is limited understanding about the relationship between the two primary changes occurring to China's agricultural land – the urban expansion on agricultural land and agricultural land use intensity. The goal of this paper is to understand this relationship in China using panel econometric methods. Our results show that urban expansion is associated with a decline in agricultural land use intensity. The area of cultivated land per capita, a measurement about land scarcity, is negatively correlated with agricultural land use intensity. We also find that GDP in the industrial sector negatively affects agricultural land use intensity. GDP per capita and agricultural investments both positively contribute to the intensification of agricultural land use. Our results, together with the links between urbanization, agricultural land, and agricultural production imply that agricultural land expansion is highly likely with continued urban expansion and that pressures on the country's natural land resources will remain high in the future.     

The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.