农地经营权流转价格扭曲的政府干预效应 ——基于边际价格理论的实证分析

研究目的：考察政府不同干预行为对农地经营权流转价格扭曲的影响效应,为完善农地生产要素配置及优化农地市场内外环境等提供政策建议。研究方法： Binary Logistic模型。研究结果：（1）当前农地经营权流转价格本应反映承包地利用产生的经济效益,由土地要素投入产出品的边际收益价值所决定;但受市场机制不完善、乡土伦理规范等多重影响,农地实际流转价格与要素价格间产生差异,表现为农地经营权流转价格扭曲。（2）政府不同的干预行为对农地经营权流转价格扭曲产生差异化效应。政府主导流转的直接干预模式会引起流转价格的高价扭曲,而通过构建流转交易平台、提供补贴等政策间接干预会缓解流转价格的低价扭曲。（3）对土地的经济诉求和保障诉求是造成流转价格扭曲的重要原因。研究结论：农地经营权流转价格的形成应交予市场,政府应避免直接干预造成价格的人为扭曲,可通过土地流转中介组织或补贴政策来间接培育优化农地市场交易环境。     

Sustainable agricultural practices,environmental risk mitigation and livelihood improvements: Empirical evidence from Northern Ethiopia

Using sustainable agriculture practices has various economic, social and environmental benefits. Determining the attitude of farmers toward risk is an important first step in understanding their behaviour and coping strategies to mitigate environmental risks. This paper investigates the dual impacts of some agricultural practices on agricultural yields and farmers’ livelihoods considering sustainable farmland. Cross-sectional data is collected from farmers in six rural villages in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia using structured questionnaires. Results show that education, labour supply, agricultural extension services, attitudes, social capital, risk mitigation attitudes, farming experience and soil conditions are factors that significantly affect farmers’ decisions to adopt these practices. The practices are adopted either in isolation or jointly of integrated sustainable practices that increase crop production, household income and asset. Therefore, government and other development actors should promote their adoptions especially in drought-prone, degraded and water-stressed areas     

The Incidence of EU Per‐Hectare Payments on Farmland Rental Rates: A Spatial Econometric Analysis of German Farm‐Level Data

This article analyses determinants for 2001 farmland rental prices from 3,819 farms in Germany. Based on specification tests we estimate a general spatial model to account for both spatial relationships among rental prices of neighbouring farmers and spatially autocorrelated error terms. A €1 per hectare higher rental price in a farmer’s neighbourhood coincides with a €0.72 higher rental price paid by the farmer. The marginal incidence of EU per‐hectare payments paid for eligible arable crop land on rental rates amounts to €0.38 for each additional €1 of premium payments. Regional livestock density, which is indirectly influenced by different policies, is also a major determinant of rental prices. Results are confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Consequently, German farmland rental rates are heavily influenced by agricultural policy instruments and therefore, these policies exhibit substantial distributional effects.     

农户认知视角下农地流转意愿影响因素研究——以湖北省京山县为例

研究目的:对农产品主产区湖北省京山县农户农地流转的认知状况进行分析,并对农户农地流转意愿的影响因素进行了探讨。研究方法:问卷调查法,二元Logistic回归模型。结果表明:(1)农户的认知水平直接影响其农地流转决策,农户作为理性经济人,其是否愿意流转土地,是基于自身经济利益最大化理性选择的结果;(2)影响农户农地流转意愿的因素中,愿意永久定居城镇,认为农地撂荒有限制,向往城镇工作机会多、收入高的农户,更愿意流转农地;(3)对农村未来生活预期程度高,认为集体福利及国家补贴重要的农户,农地流转意愿较弱。研究结论:(1)主动听取农户意见,尊重农户农地流转的意愿,在经济预期上对流转农户进行合理的补偿;(2)鼓励农业大户在农业生产中引进新的技术和耕种方法,并积极发展地方经济,促进农村闲置劳动力就近转移;(3)完善人力资源市场体系,构建高效、公开、便捷的就业信息平台,推进城乡户籍制度的改革,实现农民工的市民化;(4)健全农村农地法规制度体系,建立农村土地处置管理平台,对农地撂荒等不良现象从法律层面上严格限制。     

AGRICULTURAL LAND,TECHNOLOGY AND FARM POLICY

The relative importance of farmland and of agriculture in a developed economy decreases over time, largely due to the landsaving bias in technological change. In spite of this decrease, or perhaps because of it, agricultural policies have sought to transfer income to farmers from consumers and taxpayers. Since World War II, a primary instrument which the US has employed in pursuing this transfer has been a system of acreage controls that restricts the input of land as a factor in field crop production. This programme has resulted in the transfer of benefits to land owners through capitalisation into land values. Evidence from a translog cost function and share equations of the US agricultural sector suggests that government intervention has moderated the decrease in the share of land in the value of agricultural production. At the same time, land-saving bias in technological change has been reinforced by the induced scarcity of land, thereby acting to reduce the land share.     

农地流转现状及影响因素分析——以芜湖市为例

<正>确认识当前农地流转的形势,剖析农地流转的主要影响因素,并探讨规范农地流转的对策建议。文章采用安徽省芜湖市4个县和4个区的17份农业大户访谈记录、244份农户调查问卷,利用数理统计的方法,归纳总结了农地流转的现状差异;科学地选取相关指标,利用主成分分析法剖析了农地流转的影响因素。研究结论:(1)农地流转现状差异主要表现在流转方式、流转规模、流转期限和流转价格等4个方面;(2)农地流转是一项受到多方面因素影响的系统工程,其中社会经济发展、经济利益等因素对其影响较大;同时,科技进步、政策法规等因素也从侧面推动农地流转。建议综合协调各方面因素,大力发展地方经济、推广农业新技术、加强法律法规建设,对引导农地高效流转、提高农业综合生产能力,推动农村规模经济发展,具有十分重要的意义。     

The Malawi agricultural input subsidy programme: 2005/06 to 2008/09

Malawi's implementation of a large-scale agricultural input subsidy programme has attracted significant international interest. This paper reviews the programme from 2005/06 to 2008/09. Nationwide disbursement of heavily subsidized fertilizers and seed to large numbers of beneficiaries represents a significant logistical achievement and substantially increased national maize production and productivity, contributing to increased food availability, higher real wages, wider economic growth and poverty reduction. However, the latter years of the programme have been accompanied by high international fertilizer prices and costs and high maize prices, the latter undermining the programme's food security, poverty reduction and growth benefits for many poor Malawian farmers relying on purchased maize for substantial amounts of their staple food requirements. Estimated economic returns to the programme have been satisfactory, given other programme benefits not captured in cost—benefit analysis. With substantial reductions in both prices and subsidized volumes of fertilizers in subsequent years, there is considerable scope for building on achievements to raise programme effectiveness, efficiency and benefits. Any application of Malawi's subsidy experience to other countries should take into account the special characteristics of the Malawian maize economy and measures needed to raise programmes' effectiveness and efficiency and their contribution to sustainable development policies.     

农地流转区域差异及其成因分析 ——以江苏省为例

研究目的：分析农地流转发展的区域差异,以及这种差异的主要成因。研究方法：文献分析,计量经济分析。研究结果：（1）江苏省农地流转发展水平存在区域差异,苏南地区的农地流转比例最高,而苏北地区的农地流转增速最快,且已超过苏中地区的农地流转比例;（2）农地流转的区域差异是多种因素共同作用的结果,地区经济发展和农村劳动力非农就业都对农地流转具有显著的推动作用,鼓励和扶持农地流转的农村土地政策有效促进了农地流转的发展,农地产权安全性对农地流转的影响并不显著,而紧张的农村人地关系和与种植面积（承包面积）挂钩的农业补贴政策对农地流转具有一定的阻碍作用。研究结论：为了进一步促进农地流转和实现农业适度规模经营,应该因地制宜引导农村劳动力非农转移,完善农业补贴制度,并逐步探索农地流转专项补贴。     

Impacts of climate change,agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity in Bangladesh (1948–2008)

The paper examines the impacts of climate change, agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity (ALUD) using a panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61 year period (1948–2008) by applying a dynamic panel GMM estimator. Results revealed that ALUD and total rainfall have actually increased @ 0.19% and 0.02% per year whereas variability in temperature has declined @ 0.06% with significant differences across agroecological zones (AEZs). Among the climatic factors, total rainfall significantly increases ALUD. ALUD is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. ALUD is significantly higher in Ganges River Floodplains but lower in Meghna River Floodplains and Chittagong Coastal Plain. Among the socio-economic factors, ALUD increases significantly with increase in the prices of vegetables, jute and phosphate fertilizer and R&D investment. ALUD significantly decreases with increase in the prices of lentil, onion, sugarcane, nitrogen and potassium fertilizers and extension expenditure. Policy implications include price policies to improve vegetable and jute prices, stabilise/reduce fertilizer prices and investments in R&D to develop crops that are suitable for high rainfall areas as well as specific AEZs in order to promote ALUD in Bangladesh.     

基于竞租理论的退耕还林工程最优补助标准研究

从农户视角出发,基于竞租理论,对退耕还林工程决策集进行分析比较,确定了农户收益最大化决策,进而根据政府财政支出最少的政策目标,确定最优补助标准。通过对陕西省退耕还林工程的典型代表——延安市的4种经营类型的主要作物品种进行实证分析发现:退耕还林工程政策将会激励农户参与经济林建设。政府若要调整农户的决策类型,则需进一步提高相应类型的补助标准。     

Evaluating Agricultural Energy Policies Under Uncertainty: The Case of Electricity in South India

Farmers' attitude towards risk associated with the availability of energy inputs will influence their investment behavior and demand for energy inputs. In order to analyze policies that reduce the risk in energy availability, some modifications in methods are required. This study, using a mean-variance framework, demonstrates how cross-sectional data and time-series data on crop yields and prices can be used to analyze agricultural energy policies under uncertainty in a developing country context. It is argued that the farmers risk attitudes, their crop allocation behavior, changes in the demand for energy inputs and the stochastic relationship between various forms of energy inputs can be explained by the various energy constraints faced by them. Furthermore, using the same methods the impact of policies which affect these constraints, can be analyzed.     

Can structural adjustment work for women farmers

This article discusses the impact of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) on women farmers in developing countries. SAPs aim to improve economic efficiency and promote more rapid economic growth. SAPs are introduced in two phases. The first phase involves short-term loans with the condition that the country adopt monetary restraints and currency devaluation measures. In the second phase, long-term loans are given with the provision that the country deregulate their economy and open up markets. The agricultural sector is affected by SAPs because of their importance in employment, income generation, and export earnings. SAPs result in lower farm commodity prices due to currency devaluations and in removal of subsidies, which results in market-sensitive pricing or higher food prices. The impact of SAPs on agriculture vary between countries. In Morocco and Algeria, agriculture expanded under SAPs. In Indonesia, Bolivia, Costa Rica, and Mexico, the agriculture stagnated or declined. Agricultural growth was slowest in Africa. SAPs were somewhat successful in increasing agricultural exports. Food production grew slowly in many adjusting countries. Blame for failures of SAPs has been placed on government failure to implement reforms properly and overly optimistic assumptions about the timing of productive gains. Little attention has focused on the constraints facing women farmers, who are a large proportion of farmers, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This article focuses on the issues of limited access to resources, credit, agricultural extension and information, land ownership, education, and time as constraints to women farmers. Women also must ensure household food security. For SAPs to work effectively, complementary policies must be implemented that reallocate available productive resources and new technologies to women and that deal with women's constraints.     

Integrated assessment of cropping patterns under different policy scenarios in Quzhou County,North China Plain

Agricultural land use is affected by government policies and leads to different consequences of regional sustainability. In this work, changes in cropping patterns including acreage, cropping locations and management-related environmental impacts were simulated under various policy scenarios for Quzhou County, China. This county is in China's major agricultural region, the North China Plain. Four dominant crop systems were categorized (winter wheat/summer maize, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize, cotton, and vegetables) and analyzed, following two alternative policy scenarios that either prioritized government funding to subsidize crop production (“subsidy” scenario) or promoted advanced irrigation techniques (“technique” scenario). Input–output coefficients for all four crop systems were determined, mainly irrigation demand, yield, and price of produce, but other factors like a limited area of arable land and scarce regional water resources were also considered. For the simulation, a LINDO Inc. system was linked with the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model. Temporal changes of crop systems were simulated with the LINDO system, whereas spatial dynamics of cropping patterns were simulated with the CLUE model, based on land suitability maps. The results show that crop patterns changed variably with time under the two scenarios, and water availability was the primary constraint on sustainability of land use. Under the subsidy scenario, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize became dominant across the entire county, replacing other crop systems. In contrast, the vegetable system gradually occupied farmland surrounding the township under the technique scenario. The different policies produced opposite consequences for regional sustainability. Although a “subsidy” policy contributed to farmers’ income, it did not encourage water conservation for sustainable crop production, leading to land abandonment because of water shortage. In contrast, the “technique” policy partially cut direct financial benefits to farmers, but promoted water conservation and made a substantial contribution to agricultural sustainability.     

Socioeconomic determinants of farmland value in India

Developing countries have achieved remarkable overall economic diversification and growth during the last few decades, but farmland has remained a prime pillar of the livelihood support system of resource poor people in the rural areas of these countries. For these people, land is still the most important resource as it has multiple utilities such as a symbol of social standing, collateral value and a reserve capital asset for emergencies. Agricultural land assumes different values for different owners. This study establishes the criticality of age, education level, size of family workforce, dependency on agricultural income, productivity of land and location of farmland in influencing perception of value of farmland. Ignoring these factors creates a gap in the value of farmland as perceived by the farmland owner and the government. Knowledge of these factors may help in making appropriate adjustments in government declared prices of farmland for determining appropriate land compensation rate for a specific location.     

Economic Liberalization and Smallholder Productivity in Tanzania. From Promised Success to Real Failure, 1985–1998

In the mid-1980s, Tanzania adopted a programme for economic liberalization of the entire economy, including agriculture. After pressure from the IMF and the World Bank in particular, but also from most of the bilateral donors, agricultural producer and input prices were decontrolled, panterritorial prices were abolished, subsidies were removed and trade in agricultural products and inputs was to a large extent taken over by private traders. The international donor community promised that economic liberalization would provide a strong stimulus to Tanzanian agriculture, resulting in increasing yields, increased labour productivity, rising agricultural production and higher incomes. However, available data show that, as far as food crop production is concerned, this promise has not been fulfilled. Even compared to the 'crisis years' 1979–1984, labour productivity, yields and production per capita of food grains stagnated or declined up to the end of the 1990s. Some causes of this failure are discussed.     

The estimation of agricultural policy effects on soil erosion—An application for the bio-economic model MODAM

As agricultural policies affect land use, they have effects on the amount of soil erosion in agricultural regions through changes of the economic conditions of agricultural production. Prices of inputs and outputs, regulations and incentives can change, forcing or encouraging farmers to adopt new crop rotations. This paper shows how a bio-economic model can be used to describe and estimate the effects of policies on agricultural production and the risk of soil erosion at the example of a region in North-Eastern Germany. The model uses both an assessment tool that is based on a fuzzy-logic approach for the estimation of soil erosion risk of cropping practices, and a linear programming model, that simulates farmers’ economic behaviour under the assumption of gross margin maximisation being the main goal of farmers’ actions.The analysed policy options were both a targeted and an untargeted incentive programme for reduced tillage, and a restriction option where high erosive crops are not allowed on high erodible field types. The results show that policy changes can have an impact on soil erosion. Furthermore, soil conservation policies are shown to have different levels of efficiency in terms of reduced soil erosion related to the costs of the policy. In the case of this study, a restriction option was more efficient than the incentive options. The results of such simulations can serve as a decision support for the development of soil conservation policies and help to foresee the effects of general changes of agricultural policies.     

美国农地保护方法及其借鉴

研究目的：探讨美国农地保护方法及其对中国的借鉴。研究方法：逻辑分析,对比分析。研究结果：中国现行农地保护政策存在不足。美国农地保护的启示：（1）农地保护目标应包括保证粮食安全、农业产业发展、环境、城乡土地的合理利用,实现数量、质量、生态的综合保护;（2）发挥中央政府、地方政府、农地保护组织和农民的主体作用,促进农地的保护和保持;（3）完善法规调控体系,改革政府参与方式,减少土地套利,完善市场配套设施、引入市场激励机制,根据地区资源和经济发展情况实行差异化方法。研究结论：美国农地保护目标、管理体系及具体方法等对中国有借鉴作用。     

Economic development, institutional change, and the political economy of agricultural protection An econometric study of Belgium since the 19th century

This empirical study uses 100 years of annual data on 11 agricultural commodities from Belgium to measure the impact of structural changes coinciding with economic development and changes in political institutions on agricultural protection. The analysis shows that changes in agricultural protection are caused by a combination of factors. Governments have increased protection and support to farmers when world market prices for their commodities fell, and vice versa, offsetting market effects on producer incomes. Other economic determinants were the share of the commodities in total consumer expenditures (negative effect) and in total output of the economy (positive effect). With Belgium a small economy, there was no impact of the trade position. Changes in political institutions have affected agricultural protection. Democratic reforms which induced a significant shift in the political balance towards agricultural interests, such as the introduction of the one‐man‐one‐vote system, led to an increase in agricultural protection. The integration of Belgian agricultural policies in the Common Agricultural Policy in 1968 coincided with an increase in protection, ceteris paribus. Both institutional factors, related to changes in access to and information about the decision‐making at the EU level, and structural changes in the agricultural and food economy may explain this effect.     

中国耕地问题的症结与治本之策

研究目的:揭示中国当今耕地问题的深层原因,寻求治本之策.研究方法:归纳推理法,现象溯因法.研究结果:不合理占用耕地的问题之所以一再得不到根本解决,是因为对问题的症结缺乏认识,因而相应的政策基本上是治标不治本.问题的症结是土地产权不明晰,农民没有掌握主动权,所以虽然采取"世界上最严格耕地保护政策",实际上农地却最容易被征用.产权不明晰又必然导致土地市场化不充分,地方政府很容易滥用征地权,损害农民的利益和全社会的利益.此外,发展城市和工业在一定程度上以牺牲农民和农村为代价的传统计划经济思路仍未扭转,被征用土地的农民得不到合理的补偿;对耕地价值的认识不足,耕地的外部性价值被忽略.对症下药的治本之策是:真正实现"耕者有其田";将"征地"制度改革为"购地"和"征购"制度;重建耕地资源价值评价体系,把耕地的社会、生态价值和对后代的价值纳入农业效益;逐步全面实行农业补贴.研究结论:中国问题的核心是农民问题,农民问题的核心是土地问题,土地问题的核心是产权问题.明晰土地产权是中国耕地问题的治本之策,也是"三农"问题的治本之策.     

中国农户在农地流转市场上能否如愿以偿?——流转市场的交易成本考察

农地流转是实现规模经营的重要途径,尽管中国农地流转市场发展迅速,但农户在流转市场上能否转入自己想要转入数量的土地尚无人关注。本文利用全国6省1200户2000年和2008年追踪调查数据实证分析农户的流转意愿多大程度上可以在流转市场上得以实现,进而考察流转市场交易成本的存在性、对称性和动态性。研究表明,中国农地流转市场存在明显的交易成本,因此流转市场是不完善的。具体结论:第一,流转市场存在明显进入门槛,进入市场后农户也无法实现完全调整,转入户2000年和2008年分别能实现调整意愿的24%和37%,高于转出户的19%和18%;第二,流转市场的交易成本存在非对称性,转入户比转出户面临的交易门槛高,但进入市场后转入户调整意愿实现程度高于转出户;第三,从2000年到2008年,流转市场的交易门槛显著降低了,但进入市场后调整意愿实现程度并没有显著提高;第四,农资设备和劳动力等要素市场的不完善程度更严重,因此农地流转市场发挥了将土地这种"不能移动"的要素移动起来以迎合那些"本该移动"的要素功能,提高了资源配置效率。政府应进一步提高农地产权稳定性,降低流转市场交易成本,加快农业生产社会化服务业发展,完善农村劳动力市场。