Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities

Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.     

Uncovering climate (in)justice with an adaptive capacity assessment: A multiple case study in rural coastal North Carolina

Climate change resilience is an area of praxis where efforts to enhance community adaptive capacity are informed by theory. However, there is growing evidence that ethnocentrism and privilege are shaping coastal management policies while many communities with climate justice issues struggle to build resilience. Particularly, rural coastal communities, contrasting urban areas, have limited access to centralized planning efforts, unique local contexts for outreach, compounding social vulnerabilities (job loss, out-migration, limited social services), and receive less attention from resilience researchers. Following calls to integrate climate justice into resilience praxis, we assess perceptions of adaptive capacity within predominately African American communities in a rural low-lying coastal region in eastern North Carolina. We add a climate justice lens to evaluate the previously-validated Rural Coastal Community Resilience (RCCR) framework. The RCCR is intended to improve planning efforts by providing climate change information, initiating conversations, and contributing to resilience theory. In contrast to its previous applications, engagement led to declines in perceived adaptive capacity. This result highlights that the information sharing goals of the engagement efforts were poorly aligned with community concerns and threat perceptions. Additionally, perceived climate injustices emerged revealing instances of adaptation oppression. This study recommends strategies to rethink traditional extension efforts to improve inclusiveness by deeply interrogating the inherent whiteness of standard modes of communicating climate science.     

Climate resilient urban development: Why responsible land governance is important

In less-developed countries, the major global pressures of rapid urbanization and climate change are resulting in increased vulnerability for urban dwellers. Much of the climate impact is concentrated in urban and coastal areas, as urban development spreads into areas that are hazard-prone. Often this development is dominated by poor quality homes in informal settlements or slums on informal or illegally occupied or subdivided land.Urban development needs to be more climate-resilient to meet the post millennium development goals (MDGs) agenda. One of the elements in achieving climate-resilient urban development is the degree to which climate change adaptation and risk management are mainstreamed into two major elements of land governance, viz. securing and safeguarding of land rights, and planning and control of land-use.This paper proposes ways in which the growth of human settlements can be better managed through responsible governance of land tenure rights, and effective land-use planning to reduce vulnerability, provide adequate access to safe land and shelter, and improve environmental sustainability.     

Ecosystem-based adaptation in cities: An analysis of European urban climate adaptation plans

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) measures have been increasingly promoted in the literature, as well as in policies and practices, for their environmental and socio-economic co-benefits. The recent scientific literature has shown a growing interest to assess climate adaptation plans at the urban level, in recognition of the important role played by urban areas in addressing climate change challenges. However, little information is available on the combination of these two issues, i.e., the actual inclusion of EbA measures in climate adaptation plans at the urban level. This paper addresses this gap by developing a framework to analyze the treatment of EbA in urban level climate planning, and apply it to a sample of climate adaptation plans in Europe. The framework consists of a classification of EbA measures, and a scoring system to evaluate how well they are reflected in different components of the plans. The results suggest that there is in general good awareness in plans of EbA measures, and of their potential role in addressing climate change challenges. However, their treatment in climate adaptation plans at the urban level often lacks sufficient baseline information, as well as convincing implementation actions. The paper concludes by offering recommendations to improve future practice, in terms of enhancing the baseline information to improve the proposal and design of EbA measures, improving the treatment of co-benefits associated to EbA measures, and strengthening coordination with other planning tools. Possible future development of this works include the integration of the proposed EbA classification, and the analysis of a larger sample of territorial plans.     

Climate change,urban energy and planning practices: Italian experiences of innovation in land management tools

Climate change and energy saving are challenging the city and the territorial organization. Innovative spatial and urban planning methods and procedures are required, and new approaches and instruments must be elaborated and applied in order to shift from the building scale to the urban and territorial ones. In fact, while energy saving and emission control measures are usually applied to single buildings, plants and technological systems, the urban and territorial scales are not fully considered, although energy consumption and greenhouse gases reduction are connected to the urban form and density, to activities allocation, to mobility, etc., thus involving spatial and land-use planning decisions. It is therefore urgent to overcome the divide between energy and urban planning by elaborating and using new implementation tools. In general, the usual top-down, public-led actions are no longer politically and economically viable, whereas new methods based on public–private partnerships are being progressively adopted. This is a major change, which may set new objectives for planning practices in terms of urban quality, equity, and energy efficiency. This perspective requires redefinition of the usual methods for development rights assignment, and the activation of new planning procedures based on the assessment of actions in terms of performance instead of conformance to pre-defined rules. The expected results regard a more efficient land market and better performing development (or re-development) choices.The article focuses on the Italian case and analyzes the possibility of integrating energy planning with spatial planning, the effectiveness of plan implementation mechanisms, and the prospect of integrate public-led interventions with market tools. Recent innovations in the legislative framework support the inclusion of energy saving and climate change adaptation and mitigation goals in plan implementation procedures.     

A communication framework for climatic risk and enhanced green growth in the eastern coast of Ghana

Progresses made in global responses to climate change shows that adaptation is gradually finding its way into development planning, yet delays are generally expected from competing priorities of several sectors, policy and knowledge challenges. To understand these dynamics, a pathway for enhanced climatic risk communication, which is a form of a non-structural adaptation, was analyzed in Ghana’s coastal zones. Two learning platforms, the Community-based Risk Screening Tool for Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL), and U-Learning (Theory U-Process) were used to engage the state level policy-making process in governing development within coastal zones in the face of increased climatic risks and climate change impacts. Local livelihood priorities showed that a national level development planning framework that excluded local contexts of climatic risks face possible maladaptation. Subsequently the process that was engaged in the local contextualization of climatic risks and development in selected Districts culminated in the consensus framework, Coastal Zone Green Growth (CZGG), informed mostly by concerns over clean energy usage and ecologically compatible use of coastal resources. Therefore the CZGG potentially provides co-benefits for enhanced ecosystem services, livelihoods and adaptation. Thus, it constitutes a denominator for measuring climatic risks and adaptation to potentially inform the policy-making process towards sustainable coastal zone management practices. Except for the desired goals of CZGG being far reaching and futuristic, they overlapped with goals of the adaptation strategies of the local population, which are similar to development goals. Therefore communicating localized contexts of coastal climatic risks of which sea level rise is seen often as remote to planning, could strengthen risk management in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and enhance resilience of vulnerable communities. However, this will require the designation of a body which is accustomed to the local issues to facilitate, harmonize and coordinate multi-sector actions and diverse stakeholders’ interests for the CZGG to become a reality in contributing to ICZM in Ghana.     

Impediments to inland resettlement under conditions of accelerated sea level rise

Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) stemming from the multiple effects of human-induced climate change has potentially dramatic effects for inland land use planning and habitability. Recent research suggests that GMSLR may endanger the low-elevation coastal zone sooner than expected, reshaping coastal geography, reducing habitable landmass, and seeding significant coastal out-migrations. Our research reviews the barriers to entry in the noncoastal hinterland. Using three organizing clusters (depletion zones, win-lose zones, and no-trespass zones), we identify principal inland impediments to relocation and provide preliminary estimates of their toll on inland resettlement space. We make the case for proactive adaptation strategies extending landward from on global coastlines and illustrate this position with land use planning responses in Florida and China.     

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

Coastal zones with their natural and societal sub-systems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social preferences and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decision-making on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multi-functional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.     

Flexible land-use and undefined governance: From threats to potentials in peri-urban landscape planning

Densification of cities is presently one of the dominating strategies for urbanization globally. However, how densification of cities is linked to processes in the peri-urban landscapes is rather unknown. The aim of this paper is to highlight the potentials in of peri-urban landscapes to be recognized as complementary providers of urban ecosystem services when green areas in cities are reduced by densification. We suggest that the way forward is to change the perceptions of peri-urban areas from being defined as located between cities and rural areas with a specific population density or a geographical distance, to become recognized as a landscape defined by its functionality. By identifying and describing the functionality in peri-urban landscapes the existing governance gaps can be recognized and thus dealt with through adaptation of existing planning tools. Although not yet articulated, peri-urban areas should be used to facilitate integration of top down and bottom up approaches and thereby closing the governance gaps. We illustrate this reasoning by two examples; one of the establishment of green wedges in Stockholm, Sweden, and the other with the establishments of international Model forests. We conclude that further densification of cities will create a lack of ecosystem services in cities by putting an even higher pressure on the peri-urban landscape and not as suggested today that densification lower pressure on peri-urban landscapes. Rethinking and reframing the peri-urban areas by adapting existing platforms will potentially contribute to a more nuanced discussion on strategies for urban development generally.     

Spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability at city scale: A study in Bangalore,India

Integrating adaptation and mitigation response actions to climate change in urban-level policies requires comprehensive information on vulnerability patterns, yet a majority of local governments and decision makers in various cities in developing nations lack spatially explicit information on climate change vulnerability and its key drivers. In addition, there is no standardised method for an all-inclusive vulnerability assessment at the local level. Results from higher broad-scale vulnerability assessments are difficult to implement conceptually and technically at the local scale. We present a climate change vulnerability assessment approach at the city scale that considers three main components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators were assessed within each component and were combined using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE). The standardisation of indicators under each component was conducted, along with weighting, at each level of the vulnerability assessment hierarchy. The vulnerability assessment approach was applied to an urban area in India; namely, Bangalore metropolitan area. The application of vulnerability assessment approach was demonstrated and a spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability patterns was presented. The spatial pattern of vulnerability identifies areas urgently requiring attention to adaptation action, while vulnerability assessment enables policy intervention and prioritization at local spatial scales. This study presents a rational to integrate vulnerability assessment approach within the urban planning realm in Bangalore metropolitan area where according to our study approximately 91% of the area is facing high degree of climate vulnerability.     

Are we all on the same boat? The challenge of adaptation facing Portuguese coastal communities: Risk perception,trust-building and genuine participation

The Portuguese coast is experiencing severe erosion and loss of beachfront, processes which are expected to become worse with climate change impacts. These additional alterations are beginning to show at a time when financing for conventional coastal protection is no longer guaranteed at scales of investment which are likely to be required if future coastlines are to be maintained. This paper looks at how residents and key stakeholders of three coastal communities in Portugal perceive such possible changes, how far they judge and trust current coastal management, and how they perceive their current participation and foresee future forms of involvement on adaptive coastal change. The evidence from these surveys and interviews suggests that there is a strong commitment in each location to maintaining current levels of coastal protection, and to preserving the integrity of local societies and economies, even though there is also recognition that adaptation in some form will eventually be required. However, our research reveals that there is not yet sufficient trust between coastal stakeholders, especially towards public institutions and policies, for any degree of progressive coastal adaptation to take place. Building trust in creative learning processes of progressive adaptation could lead to improved science and participation along with a meaningful dialogue over cooperative coastal planning and financing. The research undertaken for this paper lays the groundwork for such a process of trust-building to begin.     

黄淮海区气候变化及其对冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响

气候变化对冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响、冬小麦生产对气候变化的适应已经成为学术界研究的热点问题之一。黄淮海区是我国第一大冬小麦主产区,研究选择黄淮海区为研究区域,首先运用线性倾向率方法分析了黄淮海区近50年来太阳辐射量和平均温度在全年和冬小麦生育期两个时段内的时间和空间变化特征,运用AEZ模型计算了黄淮海区各气象站点的冬小麦光温生产潜力;在此基础上,分析了太阳辐射量和温度变化对冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响。结果表明:(1)黄淮海区全年日均太阳辐射量和生育期内日均太阳辐射量均表现为减少的趋势,且全年日均太阳辐射量减少幅度较大;(2)黄淮海区年平均温度表现为上升的趋势,而冬小麦生育期内平均温度的上升趋势极不明显;(3)黄淮海区冬小麦生育期内太阳辐射量的减少和平均温度的降低是导致冬小麦光温生产潜力下降的主要原因。     

气候变化对我国粮食生产系统影响的研究前沿

在全球气候变化,尤其是气候变暖和大气二氧化碳浓度增加背景下,近半个世纪以来我国主要农区(东北、华北、长江中下游和华南地区)光温水热等气候资源条件时空分布格局发生了比较明显的变化,农田土壤有机质、土壤微生物以及土壤肥力也相应地发生了不同程度的变化。气候变化也导致我国粮食主产区极端气候事件频发,促进农业生物灾害与农业气象灾害形成与发展,进而对我国粮食生产方式、栽培管理、经营方式、种植制度、结构布局产生较大影响。该文分析研究了气候变化与我国粮食生产系统之间的相互作用和相互关系,揭示其内在的影响机理和适应机制,定量模拟气候变化对我国粮食安全的影响程度和适应能力,研究提出我国农业适应气候变化的技术措施。从国家需求和学术发展的角度深入分析了气候变化与我国粮食生产之间的相互作用和相互关系,提出了气候变化对我国粮食生产影响研究领域的许多有待解决的前沿性重大科学问题,阐明了气候变化对我国粮食生产的影响研究,已经成为我国气候变化研究的重点方向之一。     

Does social capital matter in climate change adaptation? A lesson from agricultural sector in Yogyakarta,Indonesia

Climate change increases the vulnerability of agricultural sector due to the increasing threat from pest attacks. Mitigation of a threat that results from climate change requires adaptation strategies. This study investigates farmers’ willingness to participate in the process of climate change adaptation in Yogyakarta, Indonesia; particularly in facing the increasing risk of pest attacks. Using a logistic regression model, we tested the impacts of social capital on farmers’ willingness to participate. The results showed that 70% of farmers were willing to contribute financially to the adaptation process. This participation was positively correlated with high social capital, which consists of high level of trust, community engagement, and personal relations with people in other villages. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the potential roles of social capital in the process of climate change adaptation in agricultural sector.     

Negotiating climate change responses: Regional and local perspectives on transport and coastal zone planning in South Sweden

Putting climate change policy-integration into practice is challenged by problems of institutional misfit, due to, inter alia, deficient vertical administrative interplay. While most focus within the field of climate change research has targeted the national–local interplay, less is known about the interface of regional and local perspectives. Here, the aim is to study that interface with a specific focus on the relation between regional and local spatial planning actors, through a case-study of transport and coastal zone management in a Swedish municipality. The article is based on interviews (focus group and single in-depth) and official planning documents. The material reveals a tricky planning situation, replete with conflict. In practice, various institutional frameworks, claims and ambitions collide. The attempts to steer the local spatial planning initiatives from the regional level led to conflicts, which in turn seems to have hampered the overall work for climate change management through spatial planning. Furthermore, there are few traces of prospects of a smooth vertical institutional interplay able to support the overall aims related to integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation in spatial planning.     

Urban agriculture and land use in cities: An approach with the multi-functionality and sustainability concepts in the case of Antananarivo (Madagascar)

Urban planners are increasingly interested in agriculture around cities and have to decide whether to maintain or not areas of agricultural land use within and close to growing cities. There is therefore a need for researchers to design tools to guide public decision-making on land use. Various approaches, originating from different disciplines, may be adopted in this respect. We designed an interdisciplinary research program in order to test two related concepts: the “sustainability” and the “multi-functionality” of agriculture. We show that these concepts provide a useful framework for obtaining appropriate knowledge about urban agriculture, which urban planners could apply in real situations. In close collaboration with urban planners, we applied an interdisciplinary research methodology, based on common farm surveys and territorial approaches, to the Antananarivo area (Madagascar). The main functions analyzed were the food production and environmental roles of urban agriculture. Two aspects of sustainability were assessed: the farm sustainability and the territorial sustainability, with expert scores. This approach identified a wide diversity of farming systems that performed differently, depending on their intra- or suburban location. The food supply function appeared to be important not only for fresh produce but also for rice consumption. The function of protection against flooding is now important and this importance will increase with climate change. A diagnosis of sustainability was made and discussed with urban planners: several farming systems and zones were identified in which agriculture was considered important as a means of maintaining or developing the food supply, employment and incomes, and even landscape or environmental quality. We also identified other areas in which poor production conditions and/or the negative effects of urbanization on agriculture jeopardized its sustainability. This methodology appeared to be useful for determining the most appropriate role of urban agriculture in the land-use planning of this city. Our study raises new questions on the subject and should lead to more focused research programmes. We discuss several points of interest and the limitations and possible extension of this method.     

气候变化对农户生计的影响研究综述

气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一,加剧了许多国家和地区的脆弱性,对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响尤为显著,明确气候变化对农户生计的影响,对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策,增强农户的气候变化适应能力,减轻农村贫困人口生计脆弱性具有重要意义。目前,国内外围绕气候变化对农户生计影响开展了许多研究,主要集中在过去或当前气候变化对水资源、土地、农作物、病虫害、人类健康等农户生计资本的宏观影响以及局地或区域尺度上气候变化对农户生计策略选择的影响等方面。从发展趋势看,亟需开展气候变化对农户生计的影响机理及适应机制研究,建立合理的气候变化对农户生计影响的评估框架,加强对模拟、分析和预测气候变化及其与其他压力相结合对农户生计要素的可能影响进行广泛评估,科学把握农户生计对气候变化脆弱性的关键影响因素,这对人类科学地适应气候变化和促进人类福祉和恢复力的提升具有重大的科学价值和现实意义。     

Climate adaptation in ‘new world’ cultural landscapes: The case of Bay of Fundy agricultural dykelands (Nova Scotia,Canada)

North America has few cultural agricultural landscapes, and often commensurately poor governance arrangements for managing change in such settings. This research uses the Acadian dykelands of Nova Scotia, Canada, as an opportunity to explore the social and governance limits to coastal climate adaptation in ‘new world’ cultural agricultural landscapes, as well as inform local decision-making. Approximately half of Nova Scotia’s coastal wetlands were converted to dykeland in the 1600s, lowering local resilience to the increased frequency and storm severity anticipated with climate change. Today, dykelands protect a diversity of public and private interests, meanings and values, yet are controlled by the agricultural sector, which can no longer afford to maintain them all to 2050 climate projections. We report here on a representative online Q-methodology survey of 183 adult Nova Scotians in the spring of 2015. Respondents sorted 34 statements along a normal distribution about whether they prefer dykeland maintenance or wetland restoration, and under what governance arrangements. Four factors were derived: the dominant discourse was local, female and strongly pro-dykeland, indicating the likelihood for local resistance to dykeland removal on for cultural, recreational and farming reasons. The second factor was supportive of wetland restoration for reasons of efficiency, not wetland affinity, but characterized by those in positions of management power. The two minority viewpoints were less informed about dykelands, characteristic of outsiders, and concerned more with governance. More education is needed about the challenges facing dykelands, the benefits of coastal wetlands, and the management options, but this research shows proposals to change landscape should emphasize flood mitigation over cost-saving. Cultural values and status quo bias are clearly barriers to adaptation planning, even when discussing the removal of man-made structures. The factors were surprisingly polarized, suggesting the forced-normal distribution affects the space available to convey nuanced perspectives. Large p-set Q-method of this kind is likely most useful for characterizing the emergent discourses demographically, and understanding their prevalence; the same discourses had emerged within a much smaller pilot study.