Derivatives holdings and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector

This paper studies the impact of the banks’ portfolio holdings of financial derivatives on the banks’ individual contribution to systemic risk over and above the effect of variables related to size, interconnectedness, substitutability, and other balance sheet information. Using a sample of 95 U.S. bank holding companies from 2002 to 2011, we compare five measures of the banks’ contribution to systemic risk and find that the new measure proposed in this study, Net Shapley Value, outperforms the others. Using this measure we find that banks’ aggregate holdings of five classes of derivatives do not exhibit a significant effect on the bank’s contribution to systemic risk. On the contrary, the banks’ holdings of certain specific types of derivatives such as foreign exchange and credit derivatives increase the banks contributions to systemic risk whereas holdings of interest rate derivatives decrease it. Nevertheless, the proportion of non-performing loans over total loans and the leverage ratio have much stronger impact on systemic risk than derivatives holdings. Therefore, the derivatives’ impact plays a second fiddle in comparison with traditional banking activities related to the former two items.     

The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks

This paper investigates the relationship between the two major sources of bank default risk: liquidity risk and credit risk. We use a sample of virtually all US commercial banks during the period 1998–2010 to analyze the relationship between these two risk sources on the bank institutional-level and how this relationship influences banks’ probabilities of default (PD). Our results show that both risk categories do not have an economically meaningful reciprocal contemporaneous or time-lagged relationship. However, they do influence banks’ probability of default. This effect is twofold: whereas both risks separately increase the PD, the influence of their interaction depends on the overall level of bank risk and can either aggravate or mitigate default risk. These results provide new insights into the understanding of bank risk and serve as an underpinning for recent regulatory efforts aimed at strengthening banks (joint) risk management of liquidity and credit risks.     

Measuring systemic risk in the European banking sector: a copula CoVaR approach

We propose a new methodology based on copula functions to estimate CoVaR, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on an institution being under financial distress. Our Copula CoVaR approach provides simple, closed-form expressions for various definitions of CoVaR for a broad range of copula families and allows the CoVaR of an institution to have time-varying exposure to its VaR. We extend this approach to estimate other ‘co-risk’ measures such as Conditional Expected Shortfall (CoES). We focus on a portfolio of large European banks and examine the existence of common market factors triggering systemic risk episodes. Further, we analyse the extent to which bank-specific characteristics such as size, leverage, and equity beta are associated with institutions' contribution to systemic risk and highlight the importance of liquidity risk at the outset of the financial crisis in summer 2007. Finally, we investigate the link between macroeconomy and systemic risk and find that changes in major macroeconomic variables can contribute significantly to systemic risk.     

Systemic risk in an interconnected banking system with endogenous asset markets

We analyze the emergence of systemic risk in a network model of interconnected bank balance sheets. The model incorporates multiple sources of systemic risk, including size of financial institutions, direct exposure from interbank lendings, and asset fire sales. We suggest a new macroprudential risk management approach building on a system wide value at risk (SVaR). Under the SVaR metric, the contribution of individual banks to systemic risk is well defined and can be approximated by a Shapley value-type measure. We show that, in a SVaR regime, a fair systemic risk charge which is proportional to a bank's individual contribution to systemic risk diverges from the optimal macroprudential capitalization of the banks from a planner's perspective. The results have implications for the design of macroprudential capital surcharges.     

Assessing systemic risk using interbank exposures in the global banking system

This paper contributes to the literature on systemic risk by examining the network structure of bilateral exposures in the global banking system. The global interbank market constitutes a major part of the global banking system. The market has a hierarchical network structure, composed of the national or jurisdictional area's local markets and the cross-border interbank market. First, we estimate the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate financial data on loans and deposits from Bankscope and analyze the interconnectedness in the market using network centrality measures. Subsequently, for the model analysis, we apply the Eisenberg–Noe framework to a multi-period setting. In this framework, bank defaults are classified into stand-alone defaults and contagious defaults. The banks in our sample (i.e., the top 202 banks with more than $50 billion in total assets) comprise a major part of this global banking system. The main findings are as follows: The theoretical network analysis using network centrality measures showed that most of the banks designated as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) play a central role in the global interbank market. The theoretical default analysis showed a few contagious defaults triggered by the basic defaults during and after the global financial crisis. Our stress test proved that many G-SIBs theoretically caused 1–6 contagious defaults. Our methodology would assist in the development of a monitoring system by the respective supervisory authorities as well as in the implementation of bank-internal stress tests of default contagion.     

Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies

We use a simple agent based model of value investors in financial markets to test three credit regulation policies. The first is the unregulated case, which only imposes limits on maximum leverage. The second is Basle II and the third is a hypothetical alternative in which banks perfectly hedge all of their leverage-induced risk with options. When compared to the unregulated case both Basle II and the perfect hedge policy reduce the risk of default when leverage is low but increase it when leverage is high. This is because both regulation policies increase the amount of synchronized buying and selling needed to achieve deleveraging, which can destabilize the market. None of these policies are optimal for everyone: risk neutral investors prefer the unregulated case with low maximum leverage, banks prefer the perfect hedge policy, and fund managers prefer the unregulated case with high maximum leverage. No one prefers Basle II.     

Systemic risk in the European sovereign and banking system

We investigate the systemic risk of the European sovereign and banking system during 2008–2013. We utilize a conditional measure of systemic risk that reflects market perceptions and can be intuitively interpreted as an entity’s conditional joint probability of default, given the hypothetical default of other entities. The measure of systemic risk is applicable to high dimensions and not only incorporates individual default risk characteristics but also captures the underlying interdependent relations between sovereigns and banks in a multivariate setting. In empirical applications, our results reveal significant time variation in systemic risk spillover effects for the sovereign and banking system. We find that systemic risk is mainly driven by risk premiums coupled with a steady increase in physical default risk.     

A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation

Systemic risk is modeled as the endogenously chosen correlation of returns on assets held by banks. The limited liability of banks and the presence of a negative externality of one bank’s failure on the health of other banks give rise to a systemic risk-shifting incentive where all banks undertake correlated investments, thereby increasing economy-wide aggregate risk. Regulatory mechanisms such as bank closure policy and capital adequacy requirements that are commonly based only on a bank’s own risk fail to mitigate aggregate risk-shifting incentives, and can, in fact, accentuate systemic risk. Prudential regulation is shown to operate at a collective level, regulating each bank as a function of both its joint (correlated) risk with other banks as well as its individual (bank-specific) risk.     

Heterogeneous market structure and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems

This paper investigates how banking system stability is affected when we combine Islamic and conventional finance under the same roof. We compare systemic resilience of three types of banks in six GCC member countries with dual banking systems: fully-fledged Islamic banks (IB), purely conventional banks (CB) and conventional banks with Islamic windows (CBw). We employ market-based systemic risk measures such as MES, SRISK and CoVaR to identify which sector is more vulnerable to a systemic event. We also compute weighted average GES to determine which sector is most synchronised with the market. Moreover, we use graphical network models to determine the most interconnected banking sector that can more easily spread a systemic shock to the whole system. Using a sample of observations on 79 publicly traded banks operating over the 2005–2014 period, we find that CBw is the least resilient sector to a systemic event, it has the highest synchronicity with the market, and it is the most interconnected banking sector during crisis times.     

An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market

This paper compares the pricing of credit risk in the bond market and the fast-growing credit default swap (CDS) market. The cointegration test confirms that the theoretical parity relationship between the two credit spreads holds as a long-run equilibrium condition. Nevertheless, substantial deviation from the parity can arise in the short run. The panel data study and the VECM analysis both suggest that the deviation is largely due to the higher responsiveness of CDS premia to changes in credit conditions. Moreover, it exhibits a certain degree of persistence in that only 10% of price discrepancies can be removed within a business day.     

Model uncertainty and systematic risk in US banking

This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to examine the driving factors of equity returns of US Bank Holding Companies. BMA has as an advantage over OLS that it accounts for the considerable uncertainty about the correct set (model) of bank risk factors. We find that out of a broad set of 12 risk factors only the market, real estate, and high-minus-low Fama–French factors are reliably related to US bank stock returns over the period 1986–2010. Other factors are either only relevant over specific subperiods or for subsets of bank holding companies. We discuss the implications of our findings for empirical banking research.     

我国对外贸易的FDI与国内银行信贷促进效应的比较分析

关于对外贸易与FDI之间关系的研究有很多,但对于FDI与国内金融部门特别是国内银行信贷在对外贸易的不同影响这个问题上却很少有人作出比较,而本文就是以这个作为研究主题,尝试解决以下几个问题:改革开放以来我国FDI流入与国内银行信贷对对外贸易的作用有何不同?在不同时期内,两者又具有怎么样的不同关系?等等.     

Tail dependence and indicators of systemic risk for large US depositories

In this study, we investigate the extreme loss tail dependence between stock returns of large US depository institutions. We find that stock returns exhibit strong loss dependence even in their limiting joint extremes. Motivated by this result, we derive extremal dependence-based systemic risk indicators. The proposed systemic risk indicators reflect downturns in the US financial industry very well. We also develop a set of firm-level average extremal dependence measures. We show that these firm-level measures could have been used to identify the firms that were more vulnerable to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Additionally, we explore the performance of selected systemic risk indicators in predicting the crisis performance of large US depository institutions and find that the average stock return correlations are also good predictors of crisis period returns. Finally, we identify factors predictive of extremal dependence for the US depository institutions in a panel regression setting. Strength of extremal dependence increases with asset size and similarity of financial fundamentals. On the other hand, strength of extremal dependence decreases with capitalization, liquidity, funding stability and asset quality. We believe the proposed indicators have the potential to inform the prudential supervision of systemic risk.     

Exploring the nexus between banking sector reform and performance: Evidence from newly acceded EU countries

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between banking sector reform and bank performance – measured in terms of efficiency, total factor productivity growth and net interest margin – accounting for the effects through competition and bank risk-taking. To this end, we develop an empirical model of bank performance, which is consistently estimated using recent econometric techniques. The model is applied to bank panel data from ten newly acceded EU countries. The results indicate that both banking sector reform and competition exert a positive impact on bank efficiency, while the effect of reform on total factor productivity growth is significant only toward the end of the reform process. Finally, the effect of capital and credit risk on bank performance is in most cases negative, while it seems that higher liquid assets reduce the efficiency and productivity of banks.     

Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network

We propose a framework for estimating time-varying systemic risk contributions that is applicable to a high-dimensional and interconnected financial system. Tail risk dependencies and systemic risk contributions are estimated using a penalized two-stage fixed-effects quantile approach, which explicitly links time-varying interconnectedness to systemic risk contributions. For the purposes of surveillance and regulation of financial systems, network dependencies in extreme risks are more relevant than simple (mean) correlations. Thus, the framework provides a tool for supervisors, reflecting the market's view of tail dependences and systemic risk contributions. The model is applied to a system of 51 large European banks and 17 sovereigns during the period from 2006 through 2013, utilizing both equity and CDS prices. We provide new evidence on how banking sector fragmentation and sovereign-bank linkages evolved over the European sovereign debt crisis, and how they are reflected in estimated network statistics and systemic risk measures. Finally, our evidence provides an indication that the fragmentation of the European financial system has peaked.     

银行信贷与股票价格关系研究--基于后金融危机时代数据的再检验

本文以08年次贷危机以后的变量月度数据为基础,综合运用向量自回归模型以及误差修正模型来研究后金融危机时代我国银行信贷与股票价格之间的关系,实证结果表明,在金融危机后的中国,银行信贷与股票价格的关系在短期内存在一定的正向关系,但在长期内存在负向关系。通过格兰杰因果检验发现,股票市场的变化是信贷市场波动的格兰杰原因,而反之不成立。     

Research on the Dynamic Relation between Chinese Real Estate Price and Bank Credit

本文运用矢量误差修正模型（VEC）,对2000-2011年我国房地产价格与银行信贷的动态关系进行实证分析,结果表明,银行信贷余额变动是导致实际房地产价格变动的原因,但反之并不成立。当期房地产价格变动对未来房价变动具有持续影响,短期内房地产价格可能背离银行信贷余额的变动趋势,但长期内二者的变动趋势是一致的。