2020年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2021年展望

研究目的：总结2020年国内外土地科学研究的重点进展,展望2021年中国土地科学的发展趋势及《中国土地科学》重点关注方向。研究方法：文献调查法。研究结果：2020年国内研究主要涉及土地治理理论、土地要素市场化改革、国土空间生态安全、国土空间用途管制和国土空间规划等方面;国外研究主要涉及土地再分配制度、土地可持续利用、土地利用情景模拟等方面;土地管理体制改革、土地产权保护、土地市场与政府行为、土地利用评价与生态保护等议题是国内外共同关注的重点。研究结论：2020年土地科学研究在农村土地制度改革、土地产权保护、土地利用转型、国土空间优化、自然资源资产产权制度改革等方面取得了一定进展,但在土地资源利用管理、国土空间治理、自然资源资产管理等基本理论与关键技术方面还有待加强。2021年,将重点关注面向国家战略的土地制度创新、耕地保护转型与保障措施、自然资源资产产权制度与治理体系、国土空间用途管制与生态保护修复等相关研究问题及选题方向。     

基于CLUE-S和GMOP模型的青龙满族自治县土地利用情景模拟

[目的]对青龙满族自治县未来土地利用格局进行多情景预测模拟,并探索土地经济和生态综合效益双提升目标下的土地利用发展格局,以期为区域土地资源优化配置和国土空间规划的编制提供参考。[方法]基于土地利用现状数据和社会经济统计资料,分别利用CLUE-S单模型、灰色多目标优化(GMOP)+CLUE-S模型对研究区进行了土地利用情景模拟。[结果](1)所选驱动因子对土地利用类型的解释能力较好,ROC值均大于0.7,满足Auto-Logistic回归要求,模拟检验的Kappa系数为91.03%,模拟效果比较理想;(2)到2020年,基于CLUE-S单模型的自然发展情景,研究区建设用地扩张占用耕地和林地现象突出,土地经济效益提升较大,但生态效益却呈现负增长;基于GMOP+CLUE-S模型的多目标优化情景,研究区建设用地扩张趋势得到控制,耕地、林地面积有所增加,未利用地得到较大程度开发,实现了土地经济和生态效益双提升,分别比2015年提升了3.12%和1.96%。[结论]GMOP+CLUE-S模型能够发挥两个模型各自在结构优化和空间分配方面的优点,有利于实现区域土地利用数量结构、空间布局和综合效益的协同优化。     

规划情景约束下山地丘陵区土地利用空间格局模拟*——以重庆市綦江区为例

[目的]以重庆市綦江区为研究对象,通过模拟预测2010—2020年规划调控影响下研究区的土地利用空间格局变化特征,以期为目标情景下土地利用规划的空间实施提供技术支持。[方法]文章通过构建Dyna-CLUE模型分别模拟研究区在自然增长和规划约束引导下的土地利用空间格局,并对照自然情景进而分析规划约束下土地利用空间格局的表现特征。[结果]比较AutoLogistic模型与传统Logistic模型回归结果发现,除建设用地外,其他地类的ROC值都有显著提升;对比两种情景模拟结果发现,到2020年,研究区内耕地、农村居民点、未利用地较自然情景显著减少,林地、园地显著增加,城镇建设用地增长规模较自然增长情景减少171.86hm~2;规划情景约束下,2010—2015年研究区地类转移以耕地转建设用地为主,2015—2020年以耕地转林地为主,耕地转建设用地次之,再次为农村居民点转耕地。[结论]Dyna-CLUE模型模拟中,运用添加自相关因子的AutoLogistic模型代替传统Logistic模型进行空间驱动力分析,能够显著提升模型模拟精度;规划约束下,退耕还林、农村居民点复垦和农业结构调整等工作的开展是耕地减少、林园地显著增加,建设用地规模得以控制的重要原因;退耕还林成果在规划约束情景中得到较好体现,表明规划目标对于引导土地利用空间格局定向变化有重要作用,但是丘陵山地的耕地减少态势也需得到足够重视,建议推进耕地产能建设从而协调生态保护与粮食安全间的用地需求。     

黑龙江省煤炭资源型城市土地生态安全评价研究——以黑龙江省双鸭山市为例

在对双鸭山市土地利用状况和生态环境现状分析的基础上,基于"压力-状态-响应"概念框架模型,以土地生态压力、生态状态和生态响应为子系统,共选取了23项指标,构建土地生态安全评价指标体系。采用综合评价法和协调度分析法,对研究区2002—2007年土地生态安全进行定量评价及分析。结果表明,研究区土地生态安全综合评价值在0.2～0.5之间波动上升,土地生态安全处于危险状态,但总体仍呈上升趋势。由此可见,区内土地生态安全水平还有很大的提高空间,并可以通过提高土地生态安全协调度的方式来提高区域土地生态安全。     

Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development

The concepts of Land Sharing (LSH) and Land Sparing (LSP) shall help to manage trade-offs between land use and biodiversity conservation but applications in real world contexts are scarce. We review the literature on scenario and stakeholder processes and present a participatory approach to translate the LSH/LSP concept into practice. It is based on a scenario definition process harmonized across five case studies in Europe and resulted in semi-quantitative participative LSH and LSP scenarios. Harmonization eases comparability among case studies despite fundamentally different scenarios due to heterogeneous conditions across the regions. A key challenge was the right level of standardization for the scenario process to reach a common understanding across case study regions while acknowledging regional peculiarities. The resulting scenarios support for regional specific planning recommendations and can be input to quantitative ecosystem service and biodiversity models.     

Uncertainty awareness in urban sprawl simulations: Lessons from a small US metropolitan region

Land use change modeling and simulation is a popular tool in land use planning and policy formulation. However, the outputs of land use change simulation are not always accompanied with information on uncertainty. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the inherent uncertainty in sprawl simulation, which is attributable to error in the input parameters and to limitations in our understanding of land use systems. To reach this goal, the paper determines sprawl simulation accuracy and uncertainty for a small US metropolitan region as produced by the CLUE-S modeling framework. The model simulates sprawl location in the region accurately, but the certainty of sprawl location projections decreases with time. This uncertainty in the simulation suggests that modelers should report uncertainty with their output over all time horizons so that, on the one hand, land use planners and decision makers do not place too much confidence in any single sprawl simulation (which could lead to unwarranted and expensive urban growth management policies) and, on the other hand, do not place too little confidence in sprawl models (which could have severe socioeconomic and environmental consequences). Thus, reporting uncertainty with simulation output provides planners and decision makers with a platform for more informed land use policy.     

政策与学术互动发展：从《中国土地科学》载文分析中国土地科学发展

研究目的：从《中国土地科学》期刊载文情况分析土地科学研究热点变化轨迹,并进一步探究土地政策与土地学术研究互动发展的关系。研究方法：文献计量学和主题热度计算。研究结果：（1）耕地保护研究是《中国土地科学》期刊持续关注的核心话题,且随政策变化经历三个发展阶段,目前仍处在中高位平稳发展;（2）土地节约集约利用研究随着国家级政策的颁布在2009年后成为热点,之后保持在中位发展水平;（3）土地资产相关研究随着社会主义市场经济的发展和完善,在20世纪90年代经历了快速发展,目前逐渐淡出学术关注;（4）土地整治相关研究进入21世纪以来受到高度关注,2010年后开始进入高位发展阶段。研究结论：《中国土地科学》未来关注重点应为耕地资源有效保护与高质量管理、土地资源节约集约利用、国土空间规划实施评价及监测、自然资源资产管理及其市场体系建立、土地整治与生态保护修复协调发展等。同时,《中国土地科学》未来应坚持行业特色,继续做好土地政策与学术研究的桥梁,为政策的科学化制定提供学术支持,为学术研究转化为政策支持提供平台。     

Reorienting paradoxical land use policies towards coherence: A self-adaptive ensemble learning geo-simulation of tea expansion under different scenarios in subtropical China

The expansion of cash crops has raised contradicting interests between two bureaucratic bodies (the economy-oriented one that advocates cash crop production and the conservation-oriented one that focuses on natural resources protection) in many places around the world. Recent past has saw growing efforts on the theoretical linkages between cash crop production and conservation, but the solutions to the cash cropping −related land use conflicts remain as violent controversy. Using a geo-simulation approach, this paper models the tea expansion under different policy scenarios and evaluates the effectiveness of these policies in Anji County (China), as a contribution to the scientific basis for formulating sustainable cash cropping practices and alternative land use policies. In particular, a new self-adaptive cellular automaton model based on ensemble learning (EL-CA) is developed and three policy scenarios (economy-over-conservation (EOC), conversion-over-economy (COE), and economy-balance-conservation (EBC)) are set to predict the tea expansion patterns in 2025. Results show that the EL-CA model significantly outperforms the traditional CA models based on empirical statistics. We find that the tea expansion under the EOC scenario is much more intensive than that under the COE and EBC scenarios. The most outstanding ecological consequence of tea expansion is the occupation of forests. Employing an equivalent coefficient approach, we further quantify the trade-offs between economic incomes (from tea expansion) and ecological loss (due to ecosystem service value (ESV) declines) under the three policy scenarios. In the EOC scenario, the loss in ESV far exceeds the benefit of tea expansion. Net change of ESV is higher than that of economic return under the COE. The economic benefit is approximately equal to the ecological loss in the EBC scenario. The EBC should be a socially preferred scenario, since it leads to sustainable tea expansion and minimal ecological impacts. Though the EBC scenario is a desirable choice, how to enforce these policies is an important consideration. Given the complexity in the Chinese policy context, we finally propose several possible measures to promote the coherence of paradoxical policies involving the allocation of land for cash crop cultivation.     

Modeling of ecosystem services informs spatial planning in lands adjacent to the Sarvelat and Javaherdasht protected area in northern Iran

Dynamic models of ecosystem services supply and scenario analysis of changes in multiple services are being increasingly used to support land use planning and decision making. This approach reduces potential and real conflicts among various stakeholders potentially creating win–win solutions for all. It is particularly applicable in areas where insufficient land for agriculture and settlements is resulting in high rates of conversion of natural forest and grasslands. We quantified and mapped multiple ecosystem services, including habitat provision as a proxy for biodiversity, carbon storage and sequestration, and water balance and supply in the Sarvelat and Javaherdasht region of the globally-significant Hyrcanian (Caspian) forests in northern Iran using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs tool. This region is experiencing a rapidly increasing rate of forest conversion and as a result, the protected area located within the study landscape is threatened by human encroachment. Plausible future landscapes were modeled under three scenarios: (i) business as usual; (ii) protection-based zoning which reflects an expansion of the protected area boundary to prevent land use changes; and (iii) collaborative zoning through redefining the protection boundary simultaneously with an adjustment to meet local stakeholders’ objective of expansion of anthropogenic cover. The results showed that the collaborative zoning scenario would best contribute to effective policy because it presents a more rational spatial configuration of the landscape maintaining the provision of ecosystem services. This scenario may lead to reduced environmental impacts while achieving less conflict between the government and local communities. These results will help to inform and shape natural resource management policies in Iran and is applicable elsewhere in the world.     

Developing land use scenarios for stakeholder participation in Russia

Land use change, climate change, and the politics of accelerated agricultural growth shape contemporary land use in Russia. This factor combination urgently calls for exploring viable opportunities for sustainable land management in rural areas, which remains low on the political agenda. We address this task by bringing together various dimensions of future land use and state regulation and develop land use scenarios for the Tyumen region in Western Siberia up to 2050. Schematised maps of future land use make the scenarios spatially explicit and stakeholder-engaging. As part of the scenario process, we conducted stakeholder interviews and organised two scenario workshops on the ground. We present the scenarios as a tool that could be used to support participatory processes in a post-Soviet context.     

Integrated assessment of cropping patterns under different policy scenarios in Quzhou County,North China Plain

Agricultural land use is affected by government policies and leads to different consequences of regional sustainability. In this work, changes in cropping patterns including acreage, cropping locations and management-related environmental impacts were simulated under various policy scenarios for Quzhou County, China. This county is in China's major agricultural region, the North China Plain. Four dominant crop systems were categorized (winter wheat/summer maize, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize, cotton, and vegetables) and analyzed, following two alternative policy scenarios that either prioritized government funding to subsidize crop production (“subsidy” scenario) or promoted advanced irrigation techniques (“technique” scenario). Input–output coefficients for all four crop systems were determined, mainly irrigation demand, yield, and price of produce, but other factors like a limited area of arable land and scarce regional water resources were also considered. For the simulation, a LINDO Inc. system was linked with the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model. Temporal changes of crop systems were simulated with the LINDO system, whereas spatial dynamics of cropping patterns were simulated with the CLUE model, based on land suitability maps. The results show that crop patterns changed variably with time under the two scenarios, and water availability was the primary constraint on sustainability of land use. Under the subsidy scenario, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize became dominant across the entire county, replacing other crop systems. In contrast, the vegetable system gradually occupied farmland surrounding the township under the technique scenario. The different policies produced opposite consequences for regional sustainability. Although a “subsidy” policy contributed to farmers’ income, it did not encourage water conservation for sustainable crop production, leading to land abandonment because of water shortage. In contrast, the “technique” policy partially cut direct financial benefits to farmers, but promoted water conservation and made a substantial contribution to agricultural sustainability.     

基于土地利用功能最大化的多情景土地利用优化研究

目的 基于土地利用功能价值最大化对自然发展情景、农业生产功能优先情景、经济发展功能优先情景及生态保育功能优先情景下的土地利用结构及布局进行优化,得到2026年保定市土地利用合理结构与布局。方法 文章利用MOP模型优化各情景土地利用结构、FLUS模型优化各情景土地利用空间布局、耦合协调模型分析各情景功能协调性。结果 各情景下草地面积都减少,建设用地及水域面积都增长。除农业生产功能优先情景外,耕地面积都呈下降趋势。经济发展功能优先情景土地利用功能总价值最高,农业生产功能优先情景最低;各情景下建设用地都以外延式增长;林地都以外延式及填充式在山地丘陵地区扩张;农业生产功能优先、经济发展功能优先及生态保育功能优先情景的土地利用结构耦合协调度高于自然发展情景,经济发展功能优先情景下功能间关系最协调。结论 在现行土地利用变化趋势下,未来保定市土地利用功能将严重失调,需严格落实耕地及生态用地保护政策、推动建设用地高效利用,实现土地利用功能协调及价值最大化。     

典型岩溶地区生态用地研究——以清镇市为例

研究目的:为典型岩溶区土地利用总体规划提供参考意见。研究方法:土地利用布局方案制定采用灰色多目标规划模型,土地利用转换的空间数据处理和分析采用GIS技术。研究结果:清镇市在各生态用地类型面积配置下,土地生态服务价值2010年为58.96、2020年为64.16,较2004年的生态服务价值有较大的提高。研究结论:生态用地概念是管理岩溶山区生态环境的新理念,为协调土地利用和生态环境的要求,对生态环境敏感区域一般只能用作生态用地。     

2021年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2022年展望

研究目的：总结 2021 年国内外土地科学研究的重点进展,展望 2022 年中国土地科学的发展趋势及《中国土地科学》重点关注方向。研究方法：文献调查法。研究结果：2021年国内研究重点关注百年土地制度变迁、土地要素市场化改革、自然资源资产产权制度改革、宅基地“三权分置”、农地产权制度改革、耕地资源保护、国土空间规划与生态修复、土地利用生态环境效应与低碳转型等科学问题;国外研究重点关注土地产权市场与农业生产效率、土地权利平等、农田保护与粮食安全、土地信息提取方法优化、土地利用的跨学科拓展等问题。研究结论：围绕土地资源服务乡村振兴、保障粮食安全、维护生态安全、落实“双碳”目标等战略需求,2022年《中国土地科学》将重点关注土地市场体系建设与制度变革、耕地资源用途管制与保护转型、国土空间格局优化与修复治理、自然资源资产管理与低碳利用等相关研究问题及选题方向。     

土地整理中的生态安全问题研究

土地整理在协调人地关系,实现土地资源优化配置方面具有重要的作用和巨大的发展潜力。然而由于我国的土地整理发展比较迟,还存在很多问题,尤其是大多数地区将增加耕地面积作为土地整理的主要目标,而忽略了生态安全建设,进而引发了一些生态问题。本文主要运用分析比较、定性与定量相结合等方法分析当前土地整理对生态安全产生的影响,找出土地整理对生态安全负面影响的根源,并针对这些问题结合实际施工过程提出一些对策和建议。     

土地整理中的生态安全问题研究

通过分析土地整理对生态安全的正面效应以及它对生物资源、水资源、土壤资源和大气资源等的负面影响,提出在科学发展观的大前提下如何以生态安全为宗旨促进土地整理事业健康持续的发展;认为在土地整理中实现生态安全保护应以科学发展观为主导树立正确的土地整理观、伦理道德观,以及通过从整体出发,因地制宜地建立生态补偿机制等措施来引导未来的土地整理方向.     

保护资源和保障发展双重目标下土地利用规划实现研究

土地利用规划是一项多目标规划,又是信息不完全的灰色系统。编制规划具有许多不确定性。在保护资源和保障发展双目标约束下,土地利用规划实现必须解决规划理念、规划目标、规划基础、规划思路、规划方法和用地配置等方面的难点,在科学的规划理念引领下,规划目标指导规划思路,规划思路制约规划方法,规划基础直接影响规划的科学性和可行性。     

The interrelations of land ownership,soil protection and privileges of capital in the aspect of land take

The novelty of this study lies in the analyses of legislation concerning land use policies by examining the specific boundary between land ownership and land take. The basic motive was that the European Commission (EC) withdrew the Soil Framework Directive (SFD) in 2014 following the objections of certain Member States (MS) who countered that as most lands are privately owned, they should not fall under the remit of public governance. Since the withdrawal of the SFD land take is an issue receiving more attention. The legal content of ownership rights has been subjected to constant debate in the context of land-use policies and planning practices, which raises the questions of who decides how the land can be used and whether administrative authorities give priority to non-agricultural uses. Our study seeks to explore these issues through the lens of property law by comparing different legislations on access to land on three levels of policy implementation: the EU, the national, and the local levels. MS legislations are highlighted through the example of Hungary in two aspects: (1) regulation regarding Access to Land and Land Ownership Rights (ALOR), and (2) legislation and results of the LANDSUPPORT decision support system concerning Land Take Changes (LTC). We designed figures to demonstrate how policymakers can use the new LANDSUPPORT platform to show the gaps and inconsistencies among the above aspects. We found that the legislative regulations concerning private land use to achieve soil protection objectives remain the weakest link in the environmental protection legislation of the EU. Anxieties concerning built-in legal guarantees on each of the studied levels actualise our research. Currently, global land management is not on the political table although common European legislation might be able to preserve land for agricultural use.     

2018年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2019年展望

研究目的：总结2018年国内外土地科学研究的重点进展，展望2019年中国土地科学的发展趋势以及《中国土地科学》重点关注方向。研究方法：文献调研法。研究结果：（1）土地经济领域重点关注城乡土地价格与农地流转影响因素、土地市场化改革与政府行为、土地产权制度变迁与征地冲突等；（2）土地管理领域研究热点主要围绕自然资源管理体制改革、农村土地制度改革与土地法律完善、土地权籍与耕地保护管理等实践问题；（3）土地资源、利用与规划领域研究以探索土地资源资产负债表编制、重视土地生态状况评估、深化土地利用视角下的碳排放研究、创新土地利用模式、探讨国土空间规划体系构建及村级规划为热点；（4）土地工程与技术领域在农地综合整治、复垦技术革新、土地污染修复方法等方面研究逐渐深入，土地信息采集、处理技术不断完善。研究结论：2019年，《中国土地科学》将重点关注国家战略实施下的土地制度改革与土地利用转型、自然资源统一管理下的空间治理体系构建、生态文明建设背景下的土地资源系统科学、信息通讯技术驱动下的土地资源智能管控等研究问题及相关选题方向。     

呼伦贝尔地区耕地集约利用与生态安全协调发展研究

[目的]分析呼伦贝尔地区耕地集约利用与生态安全协调发展水平,分别建立耕地集约利用与耕地生态安全指标体系,从耕地投入强度、耕地利用程度、耕地产出水平、耕地可持续利用水平等4个方面及耕地生态资源利用、耕地生态环境压力、耕地生态安全响应等3个方面共确定18个指标进行深入研究。[方法]运用频度统计与理论分析相结合的方法进行评价指标的获取与筛选,运用变异系数法确定指标权重并借助协调发展度与相对发展度模型计算,分析协调发展水平。[结果]呼伦贝尔地区耕地集约利用与耕地生态安全发展水平均呈逐步上升趋势,整体来看前者发展状态要优于后者,两者协调发展水平呈"先升后降再升"趋势,2009年为变化转折点,原因是该时期耕地生态安全的严重滞后性。[结论]整体看来,呼伦贝尔地区耕地集约利用与生态安全协调发展水平呈稳步上升趋势,受到当地人口、经济、政策等因素的影响。