我国商品期货价格指数与宏观经济指标关系的实证研究简

通过考察我国商品期货价格指数与主要宏观经济变量之间的相互影响关系,发现商品期货价格指数对物价、国内生产总值、利率、人民币汇率均有明显的引导作用和直接影响,并且能够领先CPI指标约5-7个月。商品期货价格指数作为CPI的先行指标具有一定的可行性。     

中国期货市场有效性研究

本文介绍了期货市场有效性理论，利用Johansen市场拟合检测方法分析国内两个主要农产品期货品种——大豆和小麦的期货价格和现货价格表现，结果显示大豆的期货价格和现货价格较长时间是一致的，大豆期货市场是有效的．但大豆期货市场仅仅短期有效，小麦期货市场则是无效的。     

玉米期货价格的波动分析

本文基于玉米期货价格数据,运用ARCH类模型和马尔科夫机制转换模型分析玉米期货价格的波动规律和特征。研究表明,玉米期货价格存在一阶ARCH效应和＂杠杆效应＂,玉米期货价格收益率具有显著的波动集簇性;TARCH和EGARCH模型估计结果,玉米市场中价格上涨信息引发的波动比价格下跌信息引发的波动要大,玉米价格波动具有显著的非对称性。我国玉米期货价格确实存在马尔科夫机制转换;在样本研究期间,我国玉米期货价格存在比较明显的三个上涨和下跌阶段,在波动中保持上涨趋势。     

ON DECREASING MARGINAL IMPATIENCE*

One of the most controversial assumptions in endogenous time preference theory is that the degree of impatience is marginally increasing in wealth. We examine the implications of an empirically more relevant specification whereby time preference exhibits decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). With DMI, there are multiple steady‐state non‐satiated and satiated equilibria. In a constant interest rate economy, the non‐satiated steady‐state point is necessarily unstable. In a capital economy with decreasing returns technology, both the non‐satiated and satiated steady‐state points can be saddlepoint stable. The model is used to examine policy implications for the effects of capital taxation and government spending.     

期货市场与现货市场之间的价格研究--中国农产品市场的经验

本文借助于信息共享模型与波动溢出效应模型对我国大豆和小麦的期、现货市场之间的价格发现进行了多层次的实证研究,定量描述了期、现货市场在价格发现中作用的大小,深入刻画了我国农产品期、现货市场之间的动态关系.研究结果显示:大豆期、现货价格之间存在双向引导关系,小麦仅存在期货对现货的单向引导关系;期、现货市场均扮演着重要的价格发现角色,且期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位;期、现货市场之间均存在双向波动溢出关系,但现货市场来自期货市场的波动溢出效应均强于期货市场来自现货市场的波动溢出效应;并且,随着期货市场的发展,期、现货市场之间的波动溢出程度均呈逐渐增强态势.     

Beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour? The welfare effects of monetary policy

This paper examines whether monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) show that monetary expansion under producer currency pricing increases domestic and foreign overall welfare, in cases where the cross-country substitutability is high. If the cross-country substitutability is low, then monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself policy that reduces domestic welfare and increases foreign welfare (Corsetti & Pesenti 2001; Tille 2001). In this paper, we will show that regardless of whether the cross-country substitutability is high or low, monetary expansion is always a beggar-thyself policy in the short run.     

期货市场价格操纵行为与监管——基于演化博弈理论

从演化博弈理论的视角,基于微分方程的稳定性理论,通过分析中间参数的变化对博弈系统的最终演化均衡的影响,论证了期货市场联合操纵行为演化的方向和路径,并结合"有限理性"个体的假设进行模拟。最后,对期货市场价格操纵行为的监管提出了相关建议。     

Globalization, the output-inflation tradeoff and inflation

This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the relation between inflation and globalization, defined here as trade and financial openness, using a large cross-section of 91 countries over the period 1985-2004. We establish two main empirical regularities: both higher trade and financial openness (i) reduce central banks’ inflation bias, yielding lower average inflation and (ii) are associated with a larger output-inflation tradeoff. This evidence is at odds with the standard Barro-Gordon framework, which would require globalization to have a negative effect on the output-inflation tradeoff to yield lower equilibrium inflation, but it is consistent with a recent strand of new Keynesian models emphasizing the role of imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Our findings also support the relevance of the time-inconsistency hypothesis, which underlies the theoretical models predicting a relation between globalization and inflation. For the OECD subsample, however, we do not find an effect of openness on inflation (the output-inflation tradeoff), suggesting that these countries have created an institutional framework for central banks that eliminates distortions due to the time-inconsistency problem.     

中美白糖期货市场价格发现功能的比较研究——基于2006—2008年的时间序列数据

本文运用协整分析、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型、信息共享模型、方差分解模型和脉冲响应函数,对2006—2008年中美两国白糖期现货市场价格之间的长短期变动关系进行了计量分析与横向对比。研究发现,我国白糖期货市场价格发现功能已初步显现,但我国白糖期货市场中期货价格对现货价格的引导作用与美国的成熟市场还存在较大差距,我国白糖期货市场价格发现功能的发挥水平还有待提高。     

International transmission of environmental policy: A New Keynesian perspective

In this paper we examine the international transmission of environmental policy using a New Keynesian model of the global economy. We first consider the case in which the quality of the environment affects utility, but not productivity. This allows us to look at the trade-off between environmental quality and output. We then consider the case in which the quality of the environment increases productivity but does not affect utility. Our main results show that in both cases a unilateral implementation of a more stringent environmental policy by the domestic country raises foreign welfare under a benchmark parameterization. Our modeling strategy allows an analysis of how nominal rigidities interact with the implementation of environmental reforms, by allowing the domestic country to shift, through exchange rate depreciation, parts of the costs of more stringent environmental policies to the foreign one.     

Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?

External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. This paper quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector auto-regression approach and determines their contributions to output volatility in low-income countries. We find that they can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Other factors, most likely internal causes, are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.     

股票市场发展与经济增长——从流动性的视角

基于前人的重要结论,从流动性的角度,将流动性分为成交量、换手率两个方面。通过向量自回归（VAR）建立模型进行进一步的研究,得出股票交易成交量与经济增长的长期均衡关系,并通过VECM模型与Granger因果关系检验对所建立的模型进行进一步验证。研究结果显示,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在显著的关系。进一步研究换手率对股票流动性的影响可得出的结论是,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在长期的均衡关系,并且流动性中,成交额与经济增长存在正向关系,而换手率与经济增长存在负向关系,两者都是通过影响股票市场的总市值来进一步影响经济增长的。