长江经济带乡村生态韧性测度及影响因素研究

目的 测度和评价长江经济带的乡村生态韧性,实证检验其影响因素,为维持全流域乡村地域系统稳定性和可持续性、全面推进乡村振兴提供科学依据。方法 文章采用生态足迹模型、泰尔指数、核密度估计等方法对2010—2019年长江经济带11个省市的乡村生态韧性进行测度和评价,运用PCSE、FGLS方法实证检验了长江经济带乡村生态韧性的影响因素。结果 （1）在时序演变上,长江经济带的乡村生态韧性有所下降,乡村生态韧性均值从2010年的0.215下降到2019年的0.200;（2）在区域分异特征上,长江经济带乡村生态韧性并未出现明显极化现象,但各地区乡村生态韧性总体差距呈现出扩大趋势,且上游、中游和下游不同流域段之间的差距是导致全流域各地区乡村生态韧性差异的主要原因;（3）在空间格局上,全流域呈现出上游、中游、下游梯度下降态势,且空间演进呈现“东北—西南”格局,总体上空间布局的演变较小;（4）影响因素发现,农村信息化、财政支农与长江经济带的乡村生态韧性呈正相关关系,而农村经济增长、农村人力资本、城镇化发展与乡村生态韧性呈负相关。结论 建议以推进乡村经济多元化、生态化发展,构建合理的留才引才机制,深化数字乡村建设,推进绿色城镇化,构建城乡环境共同体,健全以绿色生态为导向的财政支农政策体系以提高长江经济带乡村生态韧性。     

江苏省城市洪涝韧性评价及影响因素研究

基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)框架,构建城市洪涝韧性评价指标体系,并运用基于实数编码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型(RAGA-PP)和灰色关联度分析法对江苏省各市洪涝韧性进行总体评价及影响因素分析。结果表明:13个地级市城市洪涝韧性指数由大到小排序依次为南京、苏州、无锡、常州、南通、镇江、徐州、泰州、扬州、连云港、淮安、盐城、宿迁;江苏省城市洪涝韧性呈现明显的两极分化趋势,苏南优于苏北;防汛物资储备调拨能力、公众灾害应急意识、居民人均可支配收入、第三产业占比、人均地区生产总值、排水管网长度和高等院校毕业生数等指标对城市洪涝韧性影响较大。     

辽宁省英那河流域环境资源损益分析与价值评估研究

通过对辽宁省英那河流域环境资源损失量的实际调查,分析并测算流域生态环境保护的经济收益和生态环境破坏的经济损失。针对英那河水库扩建所产生的影响和流域生态环境的恢复与保护,进行了深入细致的环境价值评估研究,充分证明了流域实施生态环境保护战略具有极好的社会经济效益和环境经济效益。只要地方政府能在生态恢复初期给予一定的资金支持和相应的政策保障,因地制宜地、科学地构建循环经济体系,早日行动起来恢复生态环境系统,流域农民就有望早日脱贫致富。该项实证研究可为政府科学地协调好流域环境资源保护与流域经济可持续发展提供决策依据。     

A fine-scale spatial analytics of the assessment and mapping of buildings and population at different risk levels of urban flood

Nowadays, urban flooding is becoming a severe issue in most of the developing and developed countries. The growth of the urbanization rate is also increasing, and the United Nations (UN) projected that 68 % of the world’s population would live in urban areas by 2050. People tend to migrate from rural to urban areas, which expose them more vulnerable to urban floods. The flood-related damages and deaths are increasing every year globally. Using the Birmingham city, Alabama (AL), USA as the study area, the objective of this research is to assess potential damage risks due to flood exposure of buildings and population in an urban area. Different social and environmental factors influence urban floods in an urban area. This paper considered elevation, slope, flow accumulation, land-use, soil types, and distance from the river as significant influential factors to urban flooding. The flood risk model hence can be developed by using an integrated GIS and cartrographic approach, in which we assessed and assigned weights to these factors and formed a GIS risk assessment model, which shows the level of flood risks in the floodplain areas of Birmingham and quantifies and maps both commercial buildings, home buildings, and populations’ exposed to flooding risks. This study found that the Valley Creek area is the highest flood risk zone in Birmingham, and about 48.85 percent of Valley Creek’s floodplain area will face very high flood risk. The findings further reveal that total number of 5602 people are living in high and very high flood risk zones in Birmingham that approximates 44.04 % of the total population in this floodplain area. The physical vulnerability is also assessed, and findings suggest that the Valley Creek zone has the highest percentage of residential (i.e., 56.14 %) and commercial (i.e., 75.34 %) buildings located in very high flood risk areas. Our study providing a GIS risk assessment approach to locating and mapping the areas, buildings, and populations from the most to the least at risks with a fine spatical scale for urban flood risk management. The numbers of vulnerable buildings and populations within each risk category are quantified and their distributions are mapped. Therefore, revealing population’s and buildings’ risks and their geographic information, this flood risk assessment can help local governments and communities prepare better to take actions against future urban flood events in Birmingham, and this integrated GIS and cartographic analysis for fine flooding assessments can be applied to other urban areas for flood mitigation and risk management.     

Employing resilience in the United States Forest Service

The concept of resilience has permeated the discourse of many land use and environmental agencies in an attempt to articulate how to develop and implement policies concerned with the social and ecological dimensions of natural disturbances. Several distinct definitions of resilience exist, each with its own concepts, focus and contexts related to land use policy and management. This often makes understanding the inherent objectives of policies and related principles challenging. The United States Forest Service (USFS) is one example where ambiguity and uncertainty surrounding the use of resilience permeates the content of documents in various areas of the agency. The objective of this paper is to investigate how the USFS employs the term resilience as a means to communicate strategies for managing forest lands. We perform a content analysis of 121 USFS documents including budgetary justification reports, research findings (i.e., journal articles, book chapters and technical reports), public releases, and newsletters to analyze both the rise and specific use of the term resilience in the USFS. Our analysis, which is guided by definitions of resilience in the social-ecological systems literature, reveals that the ambiguity surrounding the use of resilience in the academic literature is reflected in the content of USFS documents. However, we also find that often criticized versions of resilience (namely engineering resilience) are minimally employed by the USFS, and instead the agency focuses on the notion of ecological resilience in which natural disturbances are seen as an important component of the landscape. In some cases, the USFS employs notions of social-ecological resilience, however, the extent to which specific components of social-ecological resilience are integrated into management strategies appears minimal. The findings from this study suggest that clarity regarding the type and function of resilience needs to improve in USFS documents, and that the agency should evaluate the existing question in the SES literature of resilience of what to what?     

基于SRTM DEM的汾河流域特征提取研究

河流特征提取是流域生态恢复与农业生产活动的基础数据资料,是领域综合利用和开发必要自然地理要素获取的主要途径。文章以基于SRTM DEM数据对汾河流域特征提取为主要研究内容,主要涉及汾河流域范围提取、汾河流域水系特征提取、划分汾河流域子流域要素提取3个核心层次。利用Arc GIS水文模块分析工具,通过对汾河流域的SRTM DEM数据进行处理、填洼,水流定向的方法,提取出汾河流域地理要素特征;再通过计算汇流累积量,确定集流阈值,提取河网等路径,进而提取出汾河流域水系特征、流域子流域划分,以及进行其他流域水文分析处理;最后对提取精度进行检验和分析。研究表明90m分辨率的SRTM DEM数据提取汾河流域特征精度可靠,构建出基于SRTM DEM数据的流域特征提取的优化路径和方案,具有省时高效的优势,对于水资源的勘察、评价、管理,流域生态环境保护和区域农业资源调查等方面都具有重要价值,对数字流域建设具有极强的借鉴作用。     

漳卫南运河德州市城区段防汛形势分析与对策

漳卫南运河是海河流域南部防洪骨干水系,担负着保护京津的防汛职责;而素有"神京门户"的德州市,扼据漳卫南运河四女寺枢纽及其下游的减河、岔河、南运河三条河流。采用辩证思想,论述在城市化进程中,既要利用原有河道美化城市,更要牢固树立"安全第一"的防汛思想。就漳卫南运河德州市城区段在利用河道美化城市的过程中,出现的人河争地、跨河工程、景区建设以及防汛队伍建设等方面出现的诸多问题展开分析,提出从信息工程、分洪工程、堤坝工程等工程措施和防汛队伍建设、防汛安全宣传教育等非工程措施方面寻求解决对策。     

基于空间效能的城市生态网络构建*——以亳州市为例

［目的］随着我国城镇化进程的不断加快,城市生态要素不断受到侵蚀,构建城市生态网络对城市生态系统保护和修复具有重要意义。［方法］文章基于空间效能的视角,以亳州市为研究对象,运用生态网络连接性、渗透性以及均衡性评价,从生态保护和生态修复两个层面构建城市生态网络。［结果］对“网络本体—影响区—辐射区”不同空间层次的效能进行分析,研究结果表明：在“网络本体”的连接性评价中,生态连接应将河流水系等进行贯通连接,形成城市的生态骨架,并整合破碎的生态斑点,形成规模较大的斑块。“本体—影响区”的渗透性分析表明亳州大部分绿地斑块形状呈现出规则且较为离散的状态。“本体—辐射区”的均衡性评价显示亳州河流水面及沟渠较多且均匀,但是连通性较差。［结论］因此,亳州市应构建包含4个重要生态保护点、3个主要生态修复点和三级廊道体系的生态网络,同时要维持其生态廊道的自然形态,处理好现状保护与建设的关系等方面内容。     

中俄界河黑龙江生态环境保护与治理的对策研究

首先从黑龙江多处河段水质污染、流域内森林和湿地资源受到破坏、野生动物及鱼类资源锐减等方面阐述黑龙江流域生态环境出现恶化不容忽视的现状;然后分析指出黑龙江生态环境保护与治理存在缺少指导保护工作的整体规划、缺少统一联合指挥与协调的专门机构、缺少健全完善的两国联合的生态环境监测治理体系、界河黑龙江部分江段堤岸缺少抵御特大洪灾的滞洪设施等亟待解决的问题;最后提出加强中俄界河黑龙江生态环境保护与治理的建议:⑴把界河黑龙江的生态保护与环境治理纳入政府议事日程;⑵协商签订中俄界河黑龙江生态环境保护和综合治理的合作协定;⑶中俄联合制定界河黑龙江生态环境保护与治理的科学规划;⑷科学合理开发利用黑龙江的资源;⑸成立中俄界河黑龙江生态环境保护与治理的统一指挥和协调机构;⑹借鉴国际经验建立中俄界河黑龙江生态环境保护及治理多层面合作模式;⑺加强生态文明道德建设,构建和谐流域文化。     

The introduction of catchment-wide co-operations: Scalar reconstructions and transformation in Austria in flood risk management

The management of flood risk in Europe is changing. In several European Member States there are significant ongoing processes to shift certain flood risk management duties and responsibilities from the national to the local level. Previously, national authorities dominated the discourse about national flood risk management policy, but increasingly, local and private stakeholders have become responsible for flood risk management. This has greatly influenced the governance structure and arrangements for flood risk management policy. As a result, the co-operation among various stakeholders has become increasingly important. The consequences of this shift toward local stakeholders can be understood in the context of rescaling. This paper analyses the rescaling processes through catchment-wide management plans in the Austrian flood risk management system. Therefore, we selected three different Austrian study sites (Aist in Upper Austria, Triesting-Tal in Lower Austria and Ill-Walgau in Vorarlberg). New management ideas required new dynamics within the current scales and allowed changes in the interaction of local, regional, and national stakeholders in terms of negotiation, funding, and strategy development. The new policy direction demonstrates not only the importance of network connections between stakeholders at the same scale, but also networks between stakeholders at different scales, especially between local and national levels. However, engagement at the local level strongly depends on social capacities, such as knowledge, motivation/self-interest, networks at various levels, and procedural capacity. The theoretical framework of politics of scale helps in understanding and analysing the impact of the new decentralisation policy and practice.     

A game of give and take: The introduction of multi-layer (water) safety in the Netherlands and Flanders

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Netherlands and Flanders introduced a risk-based approach to flood risk management (FRM), labelled as multi-layer (water) safety. In contrast to a flood defence approach, risk-based management stresses the need to manage both the consequences and probability of a flood. The concept has developed differently in the two countries, as we conclude from a discursive-institutionalist research perspective. The Netherlands is characterised by a high institutionalization of the traditional flood defence discourse and a more closed policy arrangement, whereas in Flanders, the flood defence discourse is less institutionalized and the arrangement is more open. In both countries we see an opening of the arrangement preceding the establishment of multi-layer (water) safety, but at the same time, actors stress different aspects of the concept in order to increase its compatibility with the existing policy arrangement. In the Netherlands, the focus is on probability management, in Flanders on consequence management. In the Netherlands, multi-layer (water) safety as a concept could be established because it stabilises the system in the short-term by reinforcing the importance of flood defence, whereas in Flanders, policymakers were receptive to the concept because it supports a shift of responsibility towards actors outside traditional water management.     

流域合作治污与环保宣传动态协调策略

为提高流域环境治理效果并完善跨行政区流域环境管理机制,采用多主体微分博弈方法,以投入污染治理成本的上游地方政府和进行环保宣传的下游地方政府组成的流域系统为研究对象,研究上、下游地方政府治污减排与环保宣传的合作问题。结果表明:中央政府的补贴政策和地方政府间的生态补偿政策可以有效提升流域环境治理,但提升效果受到地方政府的边际收益等多重因素的影响;科学合理的分配契约可使补偿方与受偿方利益平衡,有利于提高各利益主体进行合作环境治理的积极性;中央政府可以根据不同的博弈策略和收益分配协议,制定差异化的补贴方案,以更好地提升流域环境治理效果。     

The combined use of Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation and stakeholders analysis for supporting the ecological planning of a river basin

River basin planning and management constitute complex decision problems, characterized by many actors and stakeholders with conflicting objectives and values, ranging from the protection of local flora and fauna and the enhancement of the recreational value of the river, to the preservation of the water resources for industrial purposes and human activities. In the light of the aforementioned complexity, specific evaluation methods are needed for supporting decision-making processes in this context. The present paper proposes an evaluation approach based on the combined use of two different evaluation techniques, the Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation and the stakeholders analysis, for supporting the definition of policies and actions for a river basin. In particular, alternative predictive scenarios are generated through the Ordered Weighted Average method in order to explore different solutions. Starting from the Pellice river basin (Italy), the study presents the results of the integrated evaluation approach, focusing on the potentialities of the methodology for supporting the definition of future policies and plans for the area.     

Discourse and practice of participatory flood risk management in Belfast,UK

The introduction of the Floods Directive signals a move from flood protection towards flood risk management in the European Union. Public participation is highlighted in the Floods Directive as being instrumental to effective implementation of this new approach. This study utilised document analysis, non-participant observation, a questionnaire survey, and interviews to evaluate the discourse and practice of participation in the implementation of the Floods Directive in Belfast, United Kingdom. Flood risk management processes in Belfast are found to be high on participatory rhetoric but low on meaningful engagement. The participatory process is lacking in transparency, does not encourage the active participation of interested parties and has not been clearly communicated to key publics. Opportunities to increase meaningful public participation in the process remain underutilised, and the establishment of local flood forums has provided little opportunity for meaningful engagement. Some actions of governance agencies could be best characterised as facilitating the responsibilisation of risk and are designed to manage risk to agencies rather than address flooding issues.     

长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性评估——以南京、武汉和成都为例

在全球气候变暖和海平面上升的背景下,随着城市化水平的不断提高,城市系统面临洪涝灾害的风险形势也更加严峻。构建长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性评估模型,采用熵权法确定权重,运用模糊集对分析法判断样本所属等级,对南京、武汉和成都的城市洪涝脆弱性进行评估。结果表明:2012—2016年,南京市平均洪涝脆弱度最低,受低人口密度、建成区高绿化率以及较高经济密度作用,洪涝脆弱性整体呈下降趋势;武汉市平均洪涝脆弱度最高,由于人口密度过高、建成区绿化率过低导致洪涝脆弱性呈现恶化态势;成都市平均洪涝脆弱度位于中等,受人口密度下降、经济密度和排水管道密度上升的影响,洪涝脆弱性呈下降趋势;提出了大力发展当地经济、合理调整城市化速度、兴修排水基本设施等降低长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性的建议。     

干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发生态风险评价及预测*——以开都河流域为例

[目的]探析开都河流域在未利用地开发过程中生态风险指数的变化特征,为西北干旱区内陆河流域土地利用结构调整与生态保护修复协调发展提供建议。[方法]文章采用PSR模型构建基于14个指标框架的流域未利用地开发生态风险评价指标体系;通过测度综合生态风险指数法进行时空视角的特征变化与格局划分评价;并运用灰色预测模型前瞻性模糊预测该区域未来4年的生态风险变化态势。[结果]2009—2016年开都河流域未利用地开发生态风险整体呈波动上升趋势,生态风险程度由较低下降至低生态风险水平,随后上升至一般程度。这是因为土地开发利用对生态环境造成压力,但在政府相应生态保护政策的出台落实下又逐步缓解,生态系统结构和功能好转明显,抵御风险能力得以提升。预测结果显示2017—2020年开都河流域生态风险将由一般生态风险程度上升至较高程度,因此需要采取适当的管理措施来消减生态风险发生的可能性。[结论]开都河流域作为沙漠中典型的绿洲生态系统,生态环境较为脆弱,通过未利用地的差别化开发、鼓励零星分散的开发模式以及细分不同地类开发的生态补偿设置等方式路径,以期缓解降低干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发带来的生态风险。     

The impact of flood dynamics on property values

There is evidence that environmental amenities and dis-amenities may be nonlinearly related to property valuation. This would bring inconsistency in estimating environmental variables of the hedonic price model. To explore the linearity of the relationship this study analyses spatial and temporal variation impacts of the 2011 Brisbane flood on property markets using semi-parametric estimation. The results show that most environmental variables impacts on property values nonlinearly, and in particularly distance to the river, indicating that the amenity value of being close to a river outweighs the flood risks. The estimation of the combined impact of elapsed time and neighbourhood income indicates that the flood risk impact on property markets disappears over time.     

潭江流域森林生态资产估算及其动态变化研究

以潭江流域为例估算生态资产:(1)流域森林生态资产持续增长,但增长速度较慢;(2)按主要林种生态资产总价值排序分别为:湿地松>马尾松>阔叶林>桉树>杉树>针阔混林>相思>针混林>木麻黄>南洋楹>黎蒴,而单位面积生态价值排序为:木麻黄>相思>杉树>湿地松>针混林>阔叶树>马尾松>桉树>针阔混林>黎蒴>南洋楹与目前造林采用的以耐酸耐贫瘠的先锋林种为主有关;(3)潭江流域生态资产空间分布存在明显差异,按县级行政区排列,台山最大,依次为恩平>开平>鹤山>江门市区;(4)潭江流域单位面积生态资产为全球热带/亚热带单位面积生态资产的44.22%,说明流域现有森林结构生态效益较差,在造林过程中过应以地带性植被为主,逐渐替代目前林种.从总体来看,潭江流域以先锋林种进行造林营林不利于流域生态效益的充分发挥.     

基于多智能体的城市生态保护红线多情景模拟

生态红线划定是城市可持续发展的基础,目前的生态红线划定主要采用国家生态红线划分标准来进行,没有考虑与城市建设用地空间的相互协调,为了解决这一问题,以多智能体系统理论为基础构建"城市建设用地—生态保护红线"协调的决策模型,协调城市建设发展与生态环境保护的现实需要,确定不同保护和发展模式下的城市生态红线。以鄂州市作为研究区域进行实验,模拟了不同生态保护模式下的生态保护红线划定情况,结果表明在生态红线划定中考虑多主体的决策因素有助于协调优化城市生态环境保护与城市发展的矛盾。     

Assessment of social–ecological transitions in a peri-urban Ethiopian farming community

In a peri-urban poverty-stricken community in the outskirts of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 15 years of development efforts were undertaken by establishing an enterprise, which initially consisted of a horticultural farm and finally was composed of a multifunctional farm and a restaurant with a shop. The enterprise collaborated with BioEconomy Africa, which was charged with administrative, monitoring and facilitation tasks, and provided a training, demonstration and research facility. In the innovation process, the enterprise selected technologies and implemented them within the context of local economic and market conditions. The project benefitted from a flexible allocation of modest funds. This paper assesses the sustainability of the enterprise and the community on the basis of social–ecological system transformability and resilience. The scheme of the Food and Agriculture Organization is used to evaluate the transformability, while resilience is evaluated through self-organization capacity, disturbance absorption capacity, and learning and adaptability. The project period was divided into five Macro-phases. The transformability assessment of the enterprise revealed nonlinear and asynchronous dynamics of environmental sustainability, economic resilience, social well-being and governance that after reaching a minimum attained a maximum at the end of the period under observation. The resilience assessments showed that the self-organization capacity, the disturbance absorption capacity, and learning and adaptability slowly changed to reach a satisfactory level at the end of the observation period. The changes in transformability and resilience profoundly affected the livelihood of the community. The paper demonstrates the important role of agricultural in the development of poverty-stricken peri-urban communities and indicates that innovation processes and the efficiency of facilitation extension model implementation can be enhanced by applying adaptive project execution procedures. It can be concluded that the continuous monitoring and assessments of transformability and resilience are a prerequisite for efficiently moving the socio-ecological system on a smooth road towards a socially acceptable standard of living.