青岛市土地利用变化的驱动力研究

通过遥感数据资料,获得1995～2000年青岛市土地利用类型的变化数据;借助社会经济统计软件STATISTICA的典型相关分析方法,选取与经济相关的变量,探求该市土地利用格局变化的驱动因素;分析表明,经济发展是青岛市土地利用格局变化的主要因素.     

Identifying the driving forces of non-grain production expansion in rural China and its implications for policies on cultivated land protection

The rapid expansion of non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land is of increasing concern regarding grain security in China. Characterizing the developmental mechanism of different NGP types and their responses to current policies is essential for providing critical references for the improvement of cultivated land protection policy. This study was conducted to explore the driving forces of NGP expansion in Tongxiang during three periods (2000–2008, 2008–2012, and 2012–2015). We first mapped the distributions of four types of NGP using multi-temporal high-resolution aerial photos. Then, we identified the driving forces of different NGP types at the parcel level using multinomial logistic regression modelling with geophysical, proximate, neighbourhood and policy variables. Our results showed that the total NGP area in Tongxiang increased from 31.16 ha to 2491.84 ha from 2000 to 2015. Farming conditions, such as soil type and distance to rivers, contributed more than settlements networks to the expansion of NGP in the Tongxiang region. A continuous and significant neighbourhood effect was found among pond fish farming, nursery plantations and duck rearing, demonstrating the strong stimulation of converted NGP parcels to surrounding farmers. Surprisingly, the implementation of policies such as basic farmland and standardized farmland failed to inhibit and actually encouraged NGP expansion. The planning of the main-functional region of grain production had a positive effect on inhibiting the expansion of some NGP types at certain stages. Our study provides valuable insights into the driving forces of NGP expansion at the parcel level and its response to current policies. This study supplements existing research to fully understand the phenomenon of NGP from the perspective of land use decision-making.     

晋江市土地利用变化及社会驱动力分析

利用1996年和2001年土地利用现状图,在GIS支持下对晋江市土地利用动态变化进行分析,并在统计软件DPS中对晋江市占的耕地、建设用地及其社会驱动因子进行灰色关联分析;结果表明,研究时段内土地利用变化幅度大,耕地、林地和未利用地净减,而水域、建设用地和园地净增,土地利用变化的社会驱动力依次为经济类因子、人口类因子及技术类因子,政策的干预作用也不容忽视。     

河北省近十年土地利用变化及驱动力研究

分析了河北省近10年土地利用的类型变化、数量变化、程度变化和区域变化;指出了当前河北省土地利用中存在的诸如耕地占补平衡在空间上不对称、平原地区林地减少、北部山区和平原地区未利用地增加等问题;得到了人口、经济发展、农业生产效益等影响河北省主要土地利用类型变化的社会经济驱动因子;给出了控制人口数量提高人口素质、制定和完善土地管理机制、发展经济和保护耕地并重、发展经济和保护环境并重等解决方案。     

Special issue: Environmental risk mitigation for sustainable land use development

The Special Issue (SI) “Environmental Risk Mitigation for Sustainable Land Use Development” presents seventeen interrelated papers addressing the key concept of environmental risk mitigation and sustainable land use development. The issue argues that risk mitigation depends directly on the risk assessment analysis and the quality of applied measures. Therefore, the more precise are risk assessment conclusions, the better the risk mitigation measures would be. This collection of papers follows the vision of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (Sendai Framework) which states that the integration of sustainable development objectives into disaster risk mitigation and adaptation at all levels and at all stages of policy action are of paramount importance for the sustainability of our communities. The final purpose of the issue is to address the mutual roles of land use policy on environmental risk mitigation and adaptation, especially disaster risks.     

福州市土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

从土地利用数量变化、土地利用程度变化两个方面,对福州市(1996～2004)土地利用变化情况进行了分析,并运用主成分分析法来确定影响福州市土地利用变化的主要驱动因子。研究结果表明:研究段内福州市的居民地及工矿用地、交通建设用地增幅最大,而耕地面积、未利用土地面积减幅最大,建设用地的增加主要来自耕地面积的转化;随着社会经济水平的提高,土地利用程度不断加深;人口增长、工业化和城镇化、经济的发展、土地利用宏观政策的变化是影响福州市土地利用变化的主要驱动力。     

常德市土地利用空间格局变化及驱动力分析

1997～2004年,湖南省常德市土地利用现状和空间特征入手,对比,各类土地利用空间格局的数量变化、结构变化和景观特性,可以看出:常德市土地利用变化的主要特征是林地、水域、建设用地面积的增加而耕地相应的减少;利用相关分析方法,分析了土地利用空间格局变化的主要驱动因子,揭示人口增长、农村经济发展、城建扩张、土地管理政策是常德市土地利用变化的主要驱动力。     

Key issues of land use in China and implications for policy making

The paper aims to comprehensively analyze key issues of current land use in China. It identifies the major land-use problems when China is undergoing rapid urbanization. Then, the paper interprets and assesses the related land-use policies: requisition-compensation balance of arable land, increasing vs. decreasing balance of urban-rural built land, reserved land system within land requisition, rural land consolidation and economical and intensive land use. The paper finds that current policies are targeting specific problems while being implemented in parallel. There is lacking a framework that incorporates all the policies. The paper finally indicates the current land-use challenges and proposes strategic land-use policy system to guide sustainable land use in the future.     

常德市土地利用变化及空间格局研究

依据常德市1998￣2004年土地利用详查数据,运用多种数学模型对该市的土地利用类型及土地空间格局进行了定量、全面的分析研究;研究表明:①在1998￣2004年间,常德市耕地面积每年都在减少,是研究期内面积减少最快的土地利用类型;②武陵区、安乡县、汉寿县、石门县的土地利用处于发展期,而鼎城区、澧县、临澧县、津市市的土地利用处于调整期;③研究期内,该市的多样化指数排序并没有发生变化,武陵区土地类型多样化程度最高,石门的土地类型集中化程度最高。     

泉州市土地利用／土地覆盖变化的时空特征研究

采集了泉州市的统计数据,以行政区划权属内的县(市、区)为分析单元,分析了土地利用/土地覆盖的时间演变化趋势和空间变化差异特征;研究表明,泉州市2001-2006年工业化快速推进、区域经济高速增长期间,土地利用/土地覆盖数量变化的速度高于国内平均水平,其中.交通用地与居民点及工矿用地两类土地的增长幅度最大,达6.35%和3.06%;市辖区鲤城、洛江、泉港和晋江、南安区市明显快于德化、安溪、永春西部山区3县和其他区市;泉州市土地利用/土地覆盖变化的总体特征与区域经济发展、产业布局及其工业化、城市化演变的特征十分吻合.     

Mapping mountain diversity: Ethnic minorities and land use land cover change in Vietnam's borderlands

In the complex agro-ecological conditions of Vietnam's northern borderlands, attempts by ethnic minority farmers to create sustainable livelihoods, along with the impacts of state development policies, have direct consequences for land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this paper we analyse the degree to which LULC has changed and diversified from 1999 to 2009 in Lào Cai Province and the underlying relationships with ethnic minority livelihood diversification strategies. We examine the correlation between LULC diversity and various socioeconomic and biophysical proxies using a spatial autoregressive model. Our findings indicate two major changes in LULC: an increase in closed canopy forest and substantial urban growth. LULC diversity increased between 1999 and 2009, suggesting a transition between land uses and/or a diversification of livelihood strategies. Socioeconomic proxies are significant predictors of LULC diversity in both years, while biophysical proxies are only effective predictors in 2009. In-depth interviews regarding state-led policies and ethnic minority livelihoods reveal some of the underlying mechanisms of such LULC transitions and associations.     

湖北省土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

根据1985年和1995年两个时期的土地资源调查数据，运用数理统计与定性描述相结合的方法，全面分析了湖北省13个市1985～1995年间土地利用的变化情况；揭示了该省各种土地利用类型变化的幅度、速度和区域差异；阐述了这一土地利用变化的驱动力主要是地形、自然灾害等自然因素及城镇人口的迅速增长、第二产业的发展、对土地产品的需求变化和交通条件及政府政策等社会经济驱动力。     

Socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation: A comparison between different land use planning schemes and policy implications

Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy.     

Rapid land use change by coastal wind farm development: Australian policies,politics and planning

The siting of both onshore and offshore wind farms has caused controversy in a number of countries, particularly in Europe, which currently has the world’s largest array of offshore wind turbines. Like the rest of the world there has been a dramatic increase in wind farm development In Australia over the last two decades but none of this has occurred in the offshore environment. Australian wind farms are predominantly located onshore around the southern part of the continent where wind energy is high. This has specifically affected rural coasts where it has created planning and land use policy issues along with environmental impacts and associated public and political reaction. This paper examines the geographic spread, timing and concentration of Australian wind farms around the coast. It also examines the extent to which scientific knowledge on wind farm impacts is incorporated into different state and federal land use and environmental policy and legislative frameworks. The paper concludes that the rapidity in the expansion of the Australian wind energy sector has outpaced strategic land use planning resulting in a piece-meal and cumulative wind farm development on rural coasts.     

重庆梁平县土地利用变化与空间格局研究

分析了梁平县1996～2005年土地利用变化情况和空间格局:①林地面积变化幅度最大,其次是耕地,未利用地得到了一定开发,土地利用率提高;交通用地变化速度最快,全县土地利用变化速度最近3年明显加快;土地利用程度呈现整体下降的斜"W"型变化;②在浅丘、平坝区,土地利用多样性及破碎化程度较高,而集中化程度较低;低山丘陵区,土地多样性低,集中化程度高;全县土地利用以耕地和林地为主。     

崇明东部土地利用变化及景观格局分析

本文选择崇明东部为研究区域,利用GIS和RS技术对1988、1997年和2005年卫片和航片进行了提取、分类和分析,并计算了景观格局指数,分析了近20年来土地利用及景观格局变化.结果表明:耕地基本没有变化,河流水体、农村居民点等不断增加,潮滩大大减少,城镇发展缓慢,随着人类活动程度的加剧,景观多样性稍有下降,均匀度上升...     

Toward a systemic monitoring of the European bioeconomy: Gaps,needs and the integration of sustainability indicators and targets for global land use

The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.     

Evaluation and simulation of the impact of land use change on ecosystem services trade-offs in ecological restoration areas,China

To restore China’s degraded environment and improve ecological balance, the government launched a land use policy known as the Grain for Green Program (GFGP), which is the largest ecological construction project in China or anywhere else. It has greatly increased the vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau but occupied the space of agricultural development (AD) over the years. Research on the impact of policy implementation on ecosystem services (ESs) and their trade-offs can support scenario analyses that provide realistic guidance for decision makers to formulate future regional ecological restoration planning. Our focus is Ningwu County and Jingle County on the Loess Plateau, a typical ecologically fragile and impoverished area where expansion of vegetation cover has driven extensive loss of farmland and its benefits to farmers.In this study, soil conservation (SC), water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and food supply (FS) were selected to assess the change of ESs and their trade-offs in different scenarios that represent ecological restoration and land reclamation policies. The results revealed that overall ESs had the largest increase but there were more trade-offs among ESs under the GFGP scenario. For a single ESs, SC and HQ were increased while FS and WY were decreased under the GFGP scenario. From the view of trade-offs, the GFGP scenario exhibited more trade-offs than the AD scenario. Furthermore, compared to the GFGP scenario, the numbers of sub-watersheds with trade-offs of ESs decreased under the AD scenario. With more concern about the contradiction between implementing GFGP and protecting farmland, we confirm that it is extremely unwise to incessantly implement GFGP to improve overall ESs without considering the trade-offs among ESs. Given the certain sub-watersheds mainly developing agriculture, the AD scenario appears to best reduce trade-offs among ESs and ensure the improvement of ESs. Therefore, it is of great significance to realize the win-win situation of regional ecological and resource demand to find the most suitable development direction in the future.     

近25年来黑龙江省生态系统服务价值对土地利用变化的响应

本文以黑龙江省为例,以1985年土地概查、1996年土地详查、2009年二次土地调查为数据源,参考Costanza和谢高地2007年修订的中国生态系统服务价值当量因子表,系统分析了黑龙江省生态系统服务价值与土地利用变化的响应关系.研究结果表明:1985-2009年全省生态系统服务价值增加了8110340.48万元,其中...     

Reorienting paradoxical land use policies towards coherence: A self-adaptive ensemble learning geo-simulation of tea expansion under different scenarios in subtropical China

The expansion of cash crops has raised contradicting interests between two bureaucratic bodies (the economy-oriented one that advocates cash crop production and the conservation-oriented one that focuses on natural resources protection) in many places around the world. Recent past has saw growing efforts on the theoretical linkages between cash crop production and conservation, but the solutions to the cash cropping −related land use conflicts remain as violent controversy. Using a geo-simulation approach, this paper models the tea expansion under different policy scenarios and evaluates the effectiveness of these policies in Anji County (China), as a contribution to the scientific basis for formulating sustainable cash cropping practices and alternative land use policies. In particular, a new self-adaptive cellular automaton model based on ensemble learning (EL-CA) is developed and three policy scenarios (economy-over-conservation (EOC), conversion-over-economy (COE), and economy-balance-conservation (EBC)) are set to predict the tea expansion patterns in 2025. Results show that the EL-CA model significantly outperforms the traditional CA models based on empirical statistics. We find that the tea expansion under the EOC scenario is much more intensive than that under the COE and EBC scenarios. The most outstanding ecological consequence of tea expansion is the occupation of forests. Employing an equivalent coefficient approach, we further quantify the trade-offs between economic incomes (from tea expansion) and ecological loss (due to ecosystem service value (ESV) declines) under the three policy scenarios. In the EOC scenario, the loss in ESV far exceeds the benefit of tea expansion. Net change of ESV is higher than that of economic return under the COE. The economic benefit is approximately equal to the ecological loss in the EBC scenario. The EBC should be a socially preferred scenario, since it leads to sustainable tea expansion and minimal ecological impacts. Though the EBC scenario is a desirable choice, how to enforce these policies is an important consideration. Given the complexity in the Chinese policy context, we finally propose several possible measures to promote the coherence of paradoxical policies involving the allocation of land for cash crop cultivation.