Measuring urban sprawl and exploring the role planning plays: A shanghai case study

Measuring the degree of urban sprawl largely depends on the local context and available data. This research establishes a multidimensional index which combines city expansion, urban compactness and urban form to measure sprawl. Urban planning, as part of the state-led growth approach, has exerted dramatic impact on city growth in China. Recent studies have discussed the role of planning in city growth. However, measuring the impact of planning on sprawl, has not been conducted. Taking Shanghai as a case study, this paper builds a multidimensional index to measure the spatio-temporal characteristics of urban sprawl in Shanghai from 1990 to 2010. It finds that urban sprawl was more serious in 2000s than in the 1990s, and the sprawl also presents spatial heterogeneity within different areas of the city. While quantifying the role of planning in urban sprawl, this study adopts the Geo-Detector based on spatial variation analysis of the geographical strata in order to assess the impact of planning on urban sprawl. It finds that planning is strongly correlated with urban sprawl, in other words, urban sprawl is kind of a "planned sprawl" in Shanghai. The research concludes with future planning policies necessary for a more sustainable and compact development pattern.     

The impact of exurban development on forested areas in Kurgan City,Russia

Exurban communities—a significant form of urban sprawl—can transform natural land cover. Exurban development refers to an expansion of communities located outside a city and its suburbs. One of the main reasons these settlements develop is a desire by residents to live closer to nature and developers’ recognition of the profitability of addressing this desire. Additionally, exurbs can become prosperous regions settled by people with high income. However, exurban development not only directly affects community patterns, but also species patterns, habitat reduction and disconnection, as well as land cover and land use alterations. The purpose of this paper is a quantitative analysis of the land cover transformation and forest fragmentation in Post-Soviet Russia, based on an empirical case study of the city of Kurgan. This case study also contributes to the overall research of urban sprawl in Russian provinces by adding to the discussion of homeowners’ behavior, regional environmental policies, and their role concerning the impacts of exurban settlements on the natural environment. This paper uses remote sensing imagery, census data, and primary data to analyze land cover change due to the emergence of exurban communities around Kurgan, Russia, with specific emphasis on the changes to native vegetation resulting from human behavior and stakeholder preferences.     

The effects of growth,shrinkage, population aging and preference shifts on urban development—A spatial scenario analysis of Berlin,Germany

We observe diverse urban development trends in European cities, with processes such as population aging, growth, shrinkage, and reurbanization having unclear consequences on land use and the urban form. The effects of these processes are especially difficult to determine when they occur quickly and simultaneously. We use varying scenarios of contrasting and exceeding variants of these urban development trends to uncover possible interactions by focusing on demographic and residential preference shifts that were simulated in a previously presented land use model (Lauf et al., 2012). Using urban form indicators and landscape metrics, we determine urban to peri-urban effects. Among other interesting results, we discovered that population aging expedited by population shrinkage greatly affects land consumption. This effect is especially pronounced in the outer city due to the residential preferences of elderly people and thereby reduces urban shrinkage. In contrast, a shift in preferences toward reurbanization reduces land consumption significantly. Population aging produces synergies in terms of urban growth and landscape fragmentation and trade-offs in terms of urban shrinkage and compactness, and the opposite holds for increasing reurbanization.     

城市更新过程中的土地集约利用研究——以武汉市为例

城市的发展不仅是城市人口的增长，产业的聚集，经济的增长过程，而且还是城市空间的拓展和用地结构的调整过程。目前，我国正处于城市化加速发展的阶段，城市经济结构发生了明显变化，社会进行着全方位的深刻变革。本文以城市化发展较快的武汉市为例，运用土地区位理论、地租地价理论和聚集效益理论分析了城市更新与土地利用变化的互动过程，探讨武汉市土地利用中存在的问题，并研究土地低效利用的原因，最后提出在城市更新过程中实现土地集约利用的措施。     

区域性中心城市蔓延趋势测度与控制策略 ——以山东省临沂市为例

研究目的:提出区域性中心城市蔓延趋势测度方法和蔓延控制策略。研究方法:维度分析法与实证分析法。研究结果:(1)城市蔓延是多维度现象,要综合运用单一维度测度和综合维度测度两种方法,才能全面认识和测度城市的蔓延程度;(2)临沂市城市蔓延特征总体呈现加重趋势,城市去中心度加重,城市的土地利用混合度逐渐降低,城市通达度逐渐增强,城市开敞空间逐渐减少;(3)城市蔓延是多维度共同作用的结果,要根本改变城市蔓延趋势,需要从不同维度进行综合施策。研究结论:在区域性中心城市成为城市建设用地扩展重点调控的大背景下,有效防控城市蔓延,需要科学编制区域性中心城市发展规划,并依据相关指标的测度结果,系统实施相应的城市蔓延控制策略。     

Assessing economic instruments to steer urban residential sprawl,using a hedonic pricing simulation modelling approach

Over the past centuries, cities have undergone major transformations that led to global urbanization. One of the phenomena emerging from urbanization is urban sprawl, defined as the uncontrolled spread of cities into undeveloped areas. The decrease in housing prices and commuting costs as well as the failure to internalize the real costs associated with natural land, led to households moving-out into the urban fringe – resulting in fragmented, low-density residential development patterns that has multiple negative impacts. Awareness for this problem has fed the need for the implementation of effective policies against urban residential sprawl – a subject that has received considerable attention in literature, albeit little attention has been given to economic incentive instruments. Hence, the objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of different economic instruments in steering urban residential sprawl – assessing property taxes, land taxes and public transport subsidies. To this end, the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) model is used and adapted, and a case study is provided for the medium-sized City of Aveiro in central Portugal. Results show that a flat property tax and a public transport subsidy for low and middle-income households are the most efficient instruments, leading to a decrease in urban residential area, living space and housing quantity as well as an increase in real estate values. On the other hand, a land tax results in insignificant changes in urban residential development patterns.     

Identifying the internal structure evolution of urban built-up land sprawl (UBLS) from a composite structure perspective: A case study of the Beijing metropolitan area,China

Differences in the internal composite structure during urban built-up land sprawl (UBLS) will generate different effects, and thus, a city’s spatial structure has important bearings on urban sustainability. This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of the internal structure and allocation relationship of UBLS using multivariate spatial correlation and the Weaver-Tomas composite coefficient based on site data of granted built-up land parcels. Moreover, the composite structure evolution process of UBLS and its driving mechanism are examined in this study. The results reveal that the amount structure of the three types of UBLS (i.e. industrial land sprawl, residential land sprawl and commercial land sprawl) tended to be balanced during the study period. Following the transformation and upgrade of the urban industry structure, the overall composite structure of UBLS ranged from single residential land-use structure (Res.) to industrial-residential land-use structure (Ind.-Res.) In the early period of land marketization, the marketization land granting mechanism caused low spatial correlation between the various types of UBLS and a single composite structure, i.e. Res., single commercial land-use structure (Com.), and residential-commercial land-use structure (Res.-Com.). Subsequently, a dual-driving force including the market economy and government interventions caused a relatively high degree of spatial correlation and a multiple composite structure, i.e. Ind.-Res. and industrial-residential-commercial land-use structure (Ind.-Res.-Com.). However, the evolution characteristics of the composite structure in various regions illustrate some problems, such as the spatial isomorphism phenomenon of the composite structure and the dislocation of urban built-up land allocation. The urban internal built-up land spatial layout pattern is the embodiment of two dominant driving forces, the market and the government, interacting with each other according to natural and socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, we suggest that it is necessary to reform the future urban built-up land granting mechanism based on market guidance, and the composite structure of UBLS should be adjusted according to the regional function. The government should reinforce the macro-control of land-use planning for the dispersed granted land parcels so as to optimize the urban land-use structure.     

太原城市边缘区建设用地扩展研究

城市边缘区,是城市地域结构的一个重要组成部分,在城市郊区化和乡村城镇化的双重催化下,经济发展迅速,土地利用不断变化,成为土地利用/土地覆被变化最为激烈的地区之一。本文以1990年、2000年、2006年和2010年的TM遥感影像为基础信息源,提取四个时相的建成区范围,并对近20年来的太原市城市扩展过程进行动态监测研究,结果表明:1)1990~2010年,20年间太原市边缘区建设用地共扩展了191.81 km2;2)从时间上看,2006~2010年的扩展速度最快,强度最大;3)从景观格局上看,1990~2006年以斑块数增加,紧凑度减小的分散扩展模式为主,2006年后以斑块数减少,紧凑度增大的规模扩展模式为主;4)从空间发展上看,具有明显的空间分异特征,且在不同的时间段,这种特征表现不同。     

兰州市城市建设用地结构演变及影响因素分析

为了对土地资源进行合理的配置,达到可持续发展的要求,本研究对城市建设用地的使用状况以及演变趋势进行分析,并对影响其演变的因素进行研究.选取2012～2017年兰州市城市建设用地数据对其进行分析,并在此基础上应用灰色关联度分析法分析土地利用与经济水平、产业结构、人口发展3个一级指标以及12个二级指标的关联程度,找出主要的...     

Comparing states with and without growth management analysis based on indicators with policy implications comment

In a recent volume of this journal, Nelson (Land Use Policy 16 (1999) 121) defines and computes several statewide indicators designed to evaluate the effectiveness of growth management efforts in Oregon and Florida. Two indicators are intended to measure how well states have contained urban sprawl and preserved farmland. They are computed using US Census of Population and US Census of Agriculture data. In this comment, I highlight potential problems associated with using these data to evaluate urban sprawl and farmland preservation, and recompute Nelson's indicators using alternative land use data. Differences and similarities between my indicators and those computed by Nelson are discussed.     

Managing urban growth in a transforming China: Evidence from Beijing

Managing urban growth in the current rapid urbanization process has become a key issue for land use policy in transformation China. This paper maps and assesses the performance of urban containment strategies in China, looking at the case of Beijing over a 19-year period (1990–2009). The analysis shows that to a large extent containment strategies perform well in terms of concentrating urban growth in planned suburban areas and promoting compact development. However, the unexpected growth in the rural–urban fringe and the decreased compactness of the fringes of the mixed urban areas and planned peripheral constellations caused by dispersed and illegal development suggest that the municipal containment strategies are being challenged by local development activities. Most sprawling developments at the local level are favoured by the new trend towards local autonomy and fiscal responsibility in the current transformation process. The results reveal that municipal growth control might not be achieved by all local jurisdictions when local economic motivations are involved. Particularly, urban sprawl has been fuelled by the development of urban real estate which can create significant revenues for local government and private developers. In the interest of future policy development, the management capacity of current containment strategies should be enhanced to mitigate the negative effects of market-led development in the present transformation context.     

Toward a systemic analysis of city-agriculture interactions in West Africa: A geography of arrangements between actors

Despite the importance of urban agriculture in developing countries, urban agriculture is not well understood by public authorities. This lack of knowledge impedes its inclusion in public policies of urban planning. A substantial body of literature deals with urban agriculture but little research has analyzed the multidimensional city-agriculture interactions facilitating its enduring presence within the city. We suggest the hypothesis that informal processes are at the core of the persistence of urban agriculture and propose the concept of socio-spatial arrangements (SSAs) between the actors. To study urban agriculture in Bobo-Dioulasso, a West African city, we propose to develop a geography of arrangements to understand the social and spatial characteristics of SSAs and the way they influence urban agriculture development. Taking the example of market gardeners and pig breeders, we highlight how farmers overcome urban constraints through localized social networks. Results show that arrangements between the actors are at the core of the persistence of urban agriculture. We underline two different socio-spatial morphologies (SSMs) of urban agriculture according to differences in urban agriculture characteristics. These SSMs illustrate how market gardeners and pig breeders integrate differently into the urban space. The systemic approach of studying arrangements between actors helps us understand how urban farming activities function, and how they are connected to each other and to the urban and regional system, thus building a picture of an agri-urban system. We discuss the policy and theoretical implications of this research. This study is aimed at providing a better understanding of urban agriculture that can enhance its consideration as a viable component of the city.     

Urban encroachment,forest regrowth and land-use institutions: Does zoning matter?

As concern grows regarding urban sprawl and forest and agricultural land preservation, the effectiveness of land-use policies in shaping land-use change warrants further study. We evaluate the impact of county-level zoning laws, the most predominant land use policy in the USA, and land rents on the relative amounts of forest, agricultural, and developed land, while controlling for demographic information and taxation rates. Over the past decades, southern Indiana has experienced forest regrowth on private lands, but this regrowth has declined in recent years with increased conversion of open space for urban residential development. We develop a model of land-use shares in 40 southern Indiana counties based on the net benefits to agriculture, forestland, and urban uses using a maximum likelihood estimation of a Dirichlet distribution. We find agricultural land rent and indicators of land productivity are the most important predictors of the proportion of agriculture and urban uses. Forest use is better explained by shifting regional economic structure and hilly terrain. Counties with a greater proportion of their work force in the service sectors have a greater proportion of land forested. Finally, to some extent zoning may protect agricultural land in the region, although land rents, land characteristics, and population are strong predictors of the ratio of agriculture to urban use.     

Quantifying spatial supply-demand mismatches in ecosystem services provides insights for land-use planning

Global trends in land-use changes, including urbanization and abandonment of rural areas, have important repercussions for the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we assessed and mapped the supply and demand of three ES (water provision, climate regulation, and outdoor recreation) along an urban-rural gradient in the Madrid region (Spain) from 1990 to 2012. We mapped ES supply, based on land use/land cover (LULC) data, using InVEST models and complementary methods, and ES demand, using population density and demand indicators. Then, we explored spatial supply-demand mismatches at a municipality spatial scale. Despite an increase in ES supply in some areas, a general increase in ES demand led to increasing dependence by the Madrid metropolitan area on outlying areas. We found that the number of municipalities that exhibited mismatches between the supply and demand in ES increased throughout the study period, due mainly to urban sprawl. Our results suggest the need for comprehensive land-use planning at the regional scale, taking into account that many ES flows reach beyond municipality boundaries. Finally, we discuss the utility of analyzing spatial mismatches in the supply and demand of ES for land-use planning and decision-making.     

Planning consistency and implementation in urbanizing China: Comparing urban and land use plans in suburban Beijing

The evaluation of the extent to which urban and land use planning have achieved their objectives is crucial to better management of urban land development. China’s urban and land use plans have the common purpose of controlling urban sprawl. This research aimed at comparatively assessing the consistency and implementation of these plans, considering the Changping District in suburban Beijing as a case study. Three main findings were obtained: (1) each plan used different strategies to control new developments, and there were several quantitative and spatial conflicts between the two plans; (2) neither plan has been well implemented or effective in controlling urban sprawl, despite the slightly better performance of the land use plan; (3) core-periphery decreasing trends were revealed in land quota allocation and effectiveness of planning implementation. Remote regular towns received the least land resources from the top-down planning system but also developed fast, mainly through informal and illegal approaches. Further investigation into the double failure of China’s current spatial planning system in quantitative and spatial control over urban land development requires a deeper integration of various spatial management systems, a fundamental transformation of planning philosophy, and a higher respect for peripheral areas in urban-rural integration. The planning assessment approach and reform recommendations developed on the basis of the Chinese practice are probably referable for other developing countries facing similar processes of rapid urbanization and imperfect spatial management.     

Industrial land price and its impact on urban growth: A Chinese case study

China is experiencing rapid progress in industrialization, with its own rationale toward industrial land development based on a deliberate change from an extensive to intensive form of urban land use. One result has been concerted attempts by local government to attract foreign investment by a low industrial land price strategy, which has resulted in a disproportionally large amount of industrial land within the total urban land use structure at the expense of the urban sprawl of many cities. This paper first examines “Comparable Benchmark Price as Residential land use” (CBPR) as the theoretical basis of the low industrial land price phenomenon. Empirical findings are presented from a case study based on data from Jinyun County, China. These data are analyzed to reveal the rationale of industrial land price from 2000 to 2010 concerning the CBPR model. We then explore the causes of low industrial land prices in the form of a “Centipede Game Model”, involving two neighborhood regions as “major players” to make a set of moves (or strategies). When one of the players unilaterally reduces the land price to attract investment with the aim to maximize profits arising from the revenues generated from foreign investment and land premiums, a two-player price war begins in the form of a dynamic game, the effect of which is to produce a downward spiral of prices. In this context, the paradox of maximizing profits for each of the two players are not accomplished due to the inter-regional competition of attracted investment leading to a lose-lose situation for both sides’ in competing for land premium revenues. A short-term solution to the problem is offered involving the establishment of inter-regional cooperative partnerships. For the longer term, however, a comprehensive reform of the local financial system, more adroit regional planning and an improved means of evaluating government performance is needed to ensure the government's role in securing pubic goods is not abandoned in favor of one solely concerned with revenue generation.     

Will urban farming survive the growth of African cities: A case-study in Kampala (Uganda)?

Despite the fact that urban farming is widespread in many African cities there is not yet a clearly defined view on how to deal with these activities in urban planning and management. On the basis of field interviews in the rapidly expanding metropolitan area of Kampala (Uganda) three different urban farming types were identified: subsistence farming, garden farming and commercial farming. These three urban farming types have their own spatial organisation logic and each interact in a specific way with urban expansion. In this paper the possible outcome of three alternative urban management strategies for Kampala (urban sprawl, urban infilling and a combination of both) were translated into spatially explicit land use scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030. This allowed to evaluate the spatial impact of each scenario on the future viability of the different urban farming practices. Urban sprawl fragments large open spaces thereby reducing the space for subsistence farming with 80% by 2030. Urban infilling, on the other hand, decreases the opportunities for small to medium scale garden and commercial farming by a possible reduction of 62% of the available farming land by 2030. The results of the analysis are useful for urban planners as they give insight in the potential future effects of proposed planning strategies on urban farming.     

Modelling urban networks at mega-regional scale: Are increasingly complex urban systems sustainable?

Are the dynamics of mega-regions sustainable or not? We explore the hypothesis that increasing complexity in mega-regions implies less demands on resources needed to generate organized information, thereby making the systems more efficient and stable. This article aims to identify structural indicators for measuring urban networks at the mega-regional scale. We use night-time light data from the broad band near-visible infrared channel of the DMSP-OLS to monitor the dynamics of urbanization. We study the urban networks as graphs, where nodes are cities, and the main road and railway infrastructures represent the edges. We propose four indicators for measuring the complexity, polycentricity, efficiency and stability of networks of cities. These indicators are derived from studies and approaches such as the use of graphs and small-world networks that other authors have carried out to explain similar structures. In the article we apply the structural indicators to 12 European mega-regions. The main conclusion is that mega-regional urban systems respond to increasing complexity by adapting their relational structures to become more efficient and stable, and become more sustainable forms of organization. Consequently, it could be necessary to re-direct land use policies towards improving sustainability at the level of the mega-region.     

Compact Urban Form and Expansion Pattern Slow Down the Decline in Urban Densities: A Global Perspective

The faster growth rate of urban land than population results in the persistent decline in urban densities over time, increasing the cost of land in urbanization. We attempt to quantify influences of urban form and expansion pattern on the decline in densities in 200 global cities. We use openness and proximity to represent the fragmentation and compactness of built-up areas and collect proportions of expansion in three patterns (infill, extension, and leapfrog expansion). We first use correlation analysis to identify significant explanatory variables and then build regression models with the annual change rate of densities as the dependent variable. During two periods (1990–2000 and 2000–2014), urban form and expansion pattern can explain 1/3 variance of density changes. A one standard deviation increase in openness accelerates the decline in densities by 44 %–52 %. A one standard deviation increase in the proportion of infill expansion slows down its decline by 38 %–40 %, but extension expansion accelerates its decline by 20 %–27 %. We further build regression models in five world sub-regions and four groups of different-sized cities, and results verify the stable and robust influences of urban form and expansion pattern. We conclude that compact urban form and expansion pattern can slow down the decline in density. Land-use policies supporting compact growth are encouraged to slow down the decline in urban densities, particularly in fast urbanizing populous regions.     

New urban planning challenges under emerging autonomous mobility: evaluating backcasting scenarios and policies through an expert survey

The future implementation of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in cities can have significant impacts, both positive and negative, on their sustainability. The objective of this research is to investigate those impacts and evaluate which policies could be most effective in achieving the desired city scenario through a backcasting planning methodology. To this end, a survey among experts was carried out in which they expressed their opinions on the potential consequences of AVs in cities and on the effectiveness of various policy packages focused on achieving a more sustainable mobility and land use planning. The results obtained show that the experts consulted were sceptical about the positive impacts of AVs, arguing that they could induce an increase in car trips and urban sprawl. The policies that could be most effective in mitigating these effects, leading to a city more aligned with the planned objectives would be: to strengthen active (foot, bicycle) and public transport modes, to restrict access of motorised modes to central urban areas and to use freed spaces for alternative modes of transport, green areas and public facilities. A cluster analysis also showed that most of the experts consulted considered that the policy packages presented could be effective or very effective in reaching the most desirable scenario. Therefore, it is important that the implementation of AVs does not subordinate to, but enhances, the sustainable mobility and land use policies already being developed in many urban areas.