Evaluating the effectiveness of land use master plans in built-up land management: A case study of the Jinan Municipality,eastern China

China has implemented land use master plans to strictly control built-up land usage. The effective evaluation of land use master plan on controlling construction land is the premise of monitoring and early warning of planning implementation. It is also the basis for planning revision and further implementation of territorial spatial planning. In this study, we established a comprehensive index system based on three aspects: scale management, annual growth rhythm control, and spatial layout. We then analyzed the consistency between the actual situation for built-up land and the previous land use master plan of the Jinan Municipality in the Shandong Province of eastern China. The results showed that the master plan effectively controlled the scale of built-up land sprawl, such that the annual growth rhythm control level periodically increased over time. They also indicated the low efficiency of the built-up land spatial layout control. Overall, the previous land use master plan in Jinan had notable impacts. We recommend that land policy makers should adjust control standards and implementation intensity for spatial planning in the future to achieve scientific and effective planning for the management of construction land.     

Assessing land use plan implementation: Bridging the performance-conformance divide

The assessment of land use plan implementation is a contentious issue. The debate centers on whether the crucial evaluation element is conformance of development to plan directives or alternatively, plan performance, i.e. the degree to which the plan is actually used. An analytic framework combining both conformance and performance in the evaluation of (regional) land use plans is applied to the case of the Central District Plan in Israel. Qualitative and quantitative simulation methods are exploited. Qualitative analysis reveals that both performance and conformance are greater than indicated by non-contextualized, numeric evaluations. Additionally, high conformance does not necessarily imply good plan performance. Quantitative simulation suggests that plan performance with respect to land values and densities is initially pronounced as expectations for development are subdued but subsequently tends to wane merging with the counterfactual trend. Findings imply that plan assessment needs to consider the transaction costs of land use re-designation and actors’ perceptions of the probability that plan amendments will be approved. These perceptions differ across actors as a function of the political influence that they wield.     

Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China

Land use regulation has always been regarded as one of the most crucial means of macro-control of urban growth, which can affect a city’s land values directly and further determine related urban economic well-being. Since the New Type Urbanization Strategy proposed by the government in 2014, China’s mode of urban growth has been transformed from addressing “quantity” to “quality" in the urbanization process. In this case, the regulation of land use by the Chinese government plays a more important role in urban growth. With their planned land regulatory scheme, the various instruments employed by Chinese governments have quite different mechanisms influencing land prices. However, there are no rigorous studies focusing on the land use regulation system and its impact on land values to date, particular in China. This study seeks to explore how land use regulation affects urban land values through the systematic lens. We summarize the main land use regulatory instruments based on the analysis of China’s planned land use system and urban land banking system, including the construction land quota, constraints on the allowed floor area ratio (FAR) of each land transaction parcel, and land supply restrictions. A new dataset based on land transaction data from 2007 to 2016 that covers 286 prefectural cities from the country’s coastal, central, and western regions is used in the empirical analysis. The results show that the effects of the floor area ratio (FAR) on land values are significant and positive, with the residential and commercial land supply ratio being a key factor. Moreover, the results imply that the effects of constraints on FAR and commercial land supply vary between regions. These findings indicate that the Chinese land market is considerably distorted by excessive administrative interventions by local governments, in the stage of urban transition guided, the capable regulatory instruments could play an important role in adjusting urban land prices and hence impact on urban growth.     

Street network accessibility-based methodology for appraisal of land use master plans: An empirical case study of Wuhan,China

In rapidly developing countries where master plans quickly lead to new cities, planning professionals still lack a robust methodology for the appraisal of land use at the proposal stage. This research proposes a novel approach to master-plan appraisal based on examining whether the relationship between the planned land use pattern and the proposed street layout follows a systematic spatial logic, with land use allocation correlated to accessibility characteristics of a location. Each land use zone is given a score that reflects the degree to which it is connected to every other land use zone in the master plan. The scores are derived from topological analysis of the urban street grid using sDNA (spatial domain network analysis) methodology.¹ Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a systematic link between connectivity and land use class in general and also reveals certain specific features of land use decision-making in the city. This includes a tendency for public uses to be located on small sites and in the periphery. This is consistent with profit-maximizing behaviors of local government. The potential for application of this methodology for evaluating urban-scale master plans is discussed.     

Environmental impact assessment of urban land use transitions—A context-sensitive approach

Land consumption due to residential development, economic growth and transportation belongs to the most serious environmental pressures on landscapes worldwide, in particular in urbanised areas. Accordingly, the aim of containing the development of land is rated increasingly high on the agenda of environmental policy, at least in densely populated countries such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands or the UK. As a result, different strategies and instruments to prevent excessive land consumption are being discussed. However, many of these strategies and instruments adopt a rather general approach, while it seems more effective to define the particular areas where the goal of reducing land consumption is to be pursued. Such an approach must draw on information about how detrimental specific land use transitions are with regard to, for instance, the functionality of soils, water balance or habitat quality at specific locations. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for the impact assessment of land use transition in urban areas which highlights how such information can be acquired. This framework includes the differentiation of two levels of impact assessment: the level of the single land unit and the context level which takes into account regional and aggregated impacts of land use transition bound to the spatial context. The conceptual framework provides a basis to disaggregate (supra-)national policy targets regarding land use, to scale them down to the regional level, and thus to clarify the spatially explicit implications of land use policies.     

The impact of urban expansion on agricultural land use intensity in China

China's urbanization has resulted in significant changes in both agricultural land and agricultural land use. However, there is limited understanding about the relationship between the two primary changes occurring to China's agricultural land – the urban expansion on agricultural land and agricultural land use intensity. The goal of this paper is to understand this relationship in China using panel econometric methods. Our results show that urban expansion is associated with a decline in agricultural land use intensity. The area of cultivated land per capita, a measurement about land scarcity, is negatively correlated with agricultural land use intensity. We also find that GDP in the industrial sector negatively affects agricultural land use intensity. GDP per capita and agricultural investments both positively contribute to the intensification of agricultural land use. Our results, together with the links between urbanization, agricultural land, and agricultural production imply that agricultural land expansion is highly likely with continued urban expansion and that pressures on the country's natural land resources will remain high in the future.     

Impacts of land use and amenities on public transport use,urban planning and design

Various land-use configurations are known to have wide-ranging effects on the dynamics of and within other city components including the transportation system. In this work, we particularly focus on the complex relationship between land-use and transport offering an innovative approach to the problem by using land-use features at two differing levels of granularity (the more general land-use sector types and the more granular amenity structures) to evaluate their impact on public transit ridership in both time and space. To quantify the interdependencies, we explored three machine learning models and demonstrate that the decision tree model performs best in terms of overall performance—good predictive accuracy, generality, computational efficiency, and “interpretability”. Results also reveal that amenity-related features are better predictors than the more general ones, which suggests that high-resolution geo-information can provide more insights into the dependence of transit ridership on land-use. We then demonstrate how the developed framework can be applied to urban planning for transit-oriented development by exploring practicable scenarios based on Singapore's urban plan toward 2030, which includes the development of “regional centers” (RCs) across the city-state. Results show an initial increase in transit ridership as the amount of amenities is increased. This trend, on the other hand, eventually reverses (particularly during peak hours) with continued strategic increase in amenities; a tipping point at 55% increase is identified where ridership begins to decline and at 110%, the predicted ridership begins to fall below current levels. Our in-silico experiments support one of the medium-term land-use transport goals of stakeholders—to alleviate future strains in the transportation system of Singapore through the development of RCs. The model put forward can serve as a good foundation in building decision-support tools that can assist planners in better strategizing and planning land-use configurations, in particular the amenity resource distribution, to influence and shape public transportation demand.     

Planning for social inclusion: The impact of socioeconomic inequities on the informal development of farmland in suburban Beijing

Informal development on farmland is not only a major problem facing thousands of people, but also a major challenge to land use planning. In the rapidly growing literature on informal land development in China, most authors claim that ambiguous property rights and the dual land tenure system are the primary factors involved. As a result, existing state-led land use planning responses to informal development are solely focused on strengthening the legal regulation of land development. This paper challenges this approach, on the basis of the theory of urban informality. By examining many illegal gated communities in suburban Beijing, the paper argues that the informal development of farmland on the urban fringe is the result of local grassroots groups spontaneously responding to socioeconomic inequities in the context of transition to a market economy. These inequities mainly concern distributive inequity, procedural inequity and contextual inequity in relation to land use. It appears that the ongoing market-oriented initiatives of the state government could worsen informal land development unless these socioeconomic inequalities at the local level are tackled. The growing civil society is another change to the state's control of informal land development in China's cities. A new land use planning system which has more concern for social inclusion rather than focusing on centralized control is imperative in China.     

Land use policy in China: Introduction

This themed issue of Land Use Policy builds mainly on papers presented at an international conference on ‘Land Use Issues and Policy in China under Rapid Rural and Urban Transformation’, convened by the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, China, in October 2012. The conference set out to share and promote new scientific findings from a range of disciplines that advance research on land use policy in China. The contributions to this themed issue provide conceptual–theoretical and empirical takes on the topic, around four main areas of interest to both researchers and policymakers: nation-wide land use issues, the Sloping Land Conversion Program, land engineering and land use, and land use transitions. Various land use issues have been associated with rapid urban–rural transformations in China, giving rise to formulation of new policies directly affecting land use. However, these have contributed to new land use problems due to the nature of the policies and the difficulties in policy implementation constrained by the special ‘dual-track’ structure of urban–rural development in China. In view of this, this themed edition makes a compelling call for more systematic research into the making and implementation of China's land use policy. It also emphasizes the challenges for further research on land use policy in China.     

Redefining property rights over collective land in the urban redevelopment of Shenzhen,China

Urban development in China is based on two types of land ownership, namely, state land owned by states and collective land owned by village collectives. Legally speaking, urban development must be based on state land. In practice, informal development based on collective land has played important roles in the rapid urbanization process over the past decades. Nonetheless, the vague property rights over collective land have led to inferior and suboptimal development outcomes in expansive urban areas. The redevelopment of collective land has become an important means to sustain urban development in an ongoing urbanization process. By adopting theoretical perspectives from New Institutional Economics, this study presents an integrated conceptual framework on the institutional arrangements of land property rights and transaction costs to understand the changes in land policies and their institutional implications for the redevelopment of collective land in Shenzhen, China. The findings reveal that the new policies have redefined the relationship among the government, village collectives, and real estate developers as well as their property rights over collective land. The change of institutional arrangements in land property rights has significantly reduced the transaction costs in the redevelopment process and effectively promoted land redevelopment activities.     

The intensity change of urban development land: Implications for the city master plan of Guangzhou,China

The Chinese economy has experienced substantial development over the last thirty years. This growth has resulted in an enormous expansion of China's urban areas and it has also led to a growing scarcity of land resources. Consequently, there is currently an urgent need to mitigate the conflict between the needs of growing urban areas and the shrinking supply of land resources. Understanding land-use intensity and its changes can provide important information to find mitigating measures for this conflict in the demand for land. Previous studies have found that increasing the utilization efficiency of land resources is one of the most effective ways to resolve this issue. This study focuses on the city of Guangzhou, which is an intensively developed megalopolis. A number of different data sources have been analyzed to find the characteristics and changes in urban land use in Guangzhou, including: Landsat data from 1979, 1990, 2000, and 2009; relative socioeconomic data from the Guangzhou statistic yearbooks; and the master plans of Guangzhou. The results indicate that the area of developed land has continued to increase. Urban development land intensity and its change were then explored using a Back Propagation neural network model of the city. Although the analysis revealed that urban development land did not have a higher intensity overall, it also showed that there was a sectional upward trend throughout the study period. Consequently, there is a potential to improve the land-use intensity of Guangzhou. A linear regression model was then adopted to explore the mechanism of land use change. The results reveal that rapid industrialization and urbanization have improved land-use intensity in Guangzhou. The per capita urban road area and per capita GDP show a strong relationship when compared with land-use intensity. Using the relative city master plans, the authors have argued that local government in Guangzhou has taken active steps to address land issues to promote the city's socioeconomic development; however, a scientific city master plan in the study area is still necessary to ensure the effective utilization of the city's limited land resources.     

Mechanism of regional land use transition in underdeveloped areas of China: A case study of northeast China

By using Northeast China as example, this study measured the characteristics of the land use transition of underdeveloped areas (UAs) of China and explored the underlying transition mechanism. This study found that, the main characteristics of the land use transition of Northeast China during the last two decades (1995–2015) were continuous expansion of cropland, accelerated growth of construction land, and continuous reduction of woodland and grassland, as well as unused land. Policies dominate the process of land use transition of the UAs of China. The land use transition of UAs of China is a result of interaction and coupling between socio-ecological feedback under the guidance of policies and socio-economic change under the influence of policies. The former determines the direction of regional land use transition while the latter determines the intensity of this transition. During the process of land use transition, the sustainable use of land of the UAs of China faces several severe issues: inefficient use of urban construction land caused by unreasonable policy support, degradation of the ecological environment caused by irrational expansion of cropland, and both policy instability and policy conflicts. To resolve these issues, punishment and accountability of local governmental violations of land use should be strengthened. Furthermore, a land use information disclosure system and public supervision mechanism should be established by policy makers. The starting point of policy formulation should be shifted from quantity growth to quality improvement as well as from economic benefits to comprehensive benefits.     

Industrial land price and its impact on urban growth: A Chinese case study

China is experiencing rapid progress in industrialization, with its own rationale toward industrial land development based on a deliberate change from an extensive to intensive form of urban land use. One result has been concerted attempts by local government to attract foreign investment by a low industrial land price strategy, which has resulted in a disproportionally large amount of industrial land within the total urban land use structure at the expense of the urban sprawl of many cities. This paper first examines “Comparable Benchmark Price as Residential land use” (CBPR) as the theoretical basis of the low industrial land price phenomenon. Empirical findings are presented from a case study based on data from Jinyun County, China. These data are analyzed to reveal the rationale of industrial land price from 2000 to 2010 concerning the CBPR model. We then explore the causes of low industrial land prices in the form of a “Centipede Game Model”, involving two neighborhood regions as “major players” to make a set of moves (or strategies). When one of the players unilaterally reduces the land price to attract investment with the aim to maximize profits arising from the revenues generated from foreign investment and land premiums, a two-player price war begins in the form of a dynamic game, the effect of which is to produce a downward spiral of prices. In this context, the paradox of maximizing profits for each of the two players are not accomplished due to the inter-regional competition of attracted investment leading to a lose-lose situation for both sides’ in competing for land premium revenues. A short-term solution to the problem is offered involving the establishment of inter-regional cooperative partnerships. For the longer term, however, a comprehensive reform of the local financial system, more adroit regional planning and an improved means of evaluating government performance is needed to ensure the government's role in securing pubic goods is not abandoned in favor of one solely concerned with revenue generation.     

Urban spill over vs. local urban sprawl: Entangling land-use regulations in the urban growth of China's megacities

Rather than a bad case of urban sprawl, the physical expansion of China's megacities may be viewed as a combination of ‘urban spill over’ and ‘local urban sprawl’. This paper reviews land use regulations in their institutional context and argues that conflicts in land use regulation are related to ideologies of land ownership and embedded in different planning doctrines. These hypotheses are investigated with special reference to Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong Province in southern China. The evidence suggests that entangled land use regulations for “urban” and “rural” land have imposed serious constraints on urban growth, while the contradictions of different policies and regulations in the use of rural lands for urban construction have led to intensive and unhealthy competition among stakeholders. As a result, not only have the costs of land conversion from rural to urban uses increased, but the spatial development of Guangzhou has been distorted. The implications of these failures for future policy are discussed with emphasis on the reform of the land use regulation system.     

Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities

Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.     

Agricultural land use sustainability in Southwest Iran: Improving land leveling using consolidation plans

In recent years, sustainability has always been one of the most important approaches in policy making and program development in general, especially in the agricultural sector. On the other hand, land leveling and consolidation programs are usually implemented as the development programs of the agricultural sector in different regions of Iran. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare the agricultural sustainability in two different regions (with and without land leveling and consolidation) in Zarghan District, Fars Province, Iran. In this research, a quantitative research approach has been used, and data were collected in two phases using a researcher-made questionnaire. The results of the first phase of the study showed that in the leveled and consolidated lands, the ecological dimension is potentially in a good status of sustainability, but social and economic dimensions are in a moderate status. In the unleveled and unconsolidated lands, the ecological dimension is potentially in a good status, while the social dimension is in a moderate, and economic dimensions are in a potentially weak status of sustainability. In addition, comparing the results of the two groups of lands demonstrated that there is a significant difference between them in terms of ecological and economic sustainability, and in consolidated and leveled lands, ecological and economic sustainability are in a more favorable status. Furthermore, the results of the second phase of the research indicated that agricultural activities in both categories of land are beneficial. However, the net present value of agricultural activities revenues in the leveled and consolidated lands is higher than those of the areas outside the coverage of this plan. Therefore, it can be concluded that agricultural activities in leveled and consolidated lands, not only have a better status in terms of sustainability but also have a higher economic justification.     

Land market,land development and urban spatial structure in Beijing

The paper first examines urban spatial patterns of the gradients of housing and land prices and land development intensity, and then tests the relationship between the land price gradient and housing price gradient. Urban theory predicts the former is steeper than the latter based on the notion of derived demand for land from the provision of housing services. Finally the paper examines the impact of the property of housing production function on urban spatial structure. For the property of housing production function, we are particularly interested in the elasticity of capital-land substitution. The paper concludes (1) market influences over spatial structure, (2) the derived demand for land, and (3) it is the actual (or expected) housing price increases that cause skyrocketing land prices, not the other way around.     

Key issues of land use in China and implications for policy making

The paper aims to comprehensively analyze key issues of current land use in China. It identifies the major land-use problems when China is undergoing rapid urbanization. Then, the paper interprets and assesses the related land-use policies: requisition-compensation balance of arable land, increasing vs. decreasing balance of urban-rural built land, reserved land system within land requisition, rural land consolidation and economical and intensive land use. The paper finds that current policies are targeting specific problems while being implemented in parallel. There is lacking a framework that incorporates all the policies. The paper finally indicates the current land-use challenges and proposes strategic land-use policy system to guide sustainable land use in the future.     

Reorienting paradoxical land use policies towards coherence: A self-adaptive ensemble learning geo-simulation of tea expansion under different scenarios in subtropical China

The expansion of cash crops has raised contradicting interests between two bureaucratic bodies (the economy-oriented one that advocates cash crop production and the conservation-oriented one that focuses on natural resources protection) in many places around the world. Recent past has saw growing efforts on the theoretical linkages between cash crop production and conservation, but the solutions to the cash cropping −related land use conflicts remain as violent controversy. Using a geo-simulation approach, this paper models the tea expansion under different policy scenarios and evaluates the effectiveness of these policies in Anji County (China), as a contribution to the scientific basis for formulating sustainable cash cropping practices and alternative land use policies. In particular, a new self-adaptive cellular automaton model based on ensemble learning (EL-CA) is developed and three policy scenarios (economy-over-conservation (EOC), conversion-over-economy (COE), and economy-balance-conservation (EBC)) are set to predict the tea expansion patterns in 2025. Results show that the EL-CA model significantly outperforms the traditional CA models based on empirical statistics. We find that the tea expansion under the EOC scenario is much more intensive than that under the COE and EBC scenarios. The most outstanding ecological consequence of tea expansion is the occupation of forests. Employing an equivalent coefficient approach, we further quantify the trade-offs between economic incomes (from tea expansion) and ecological loss (due to ecosystem service value (ESV) declines) under the three policy scenarios. In the EOC scenario, the loss in ESV far exceeds the benefit of tea expansion. Net change of ESV is higher than that of economic return under the COE. The economic benefit is approximately equal to the ecological loss in the EBC scenario. The EBC should be a socially preferred scenario, since it leads to sustainable tea expansion and minimal ecological impacts. Though the EBC scenario is a desirable choice, how to enforce these policies is an important consideration. Given the complexity in the Chinese policy context, we finally propose several possible measures to promote the coherence of paradoxical policies involving the allocation of land for cash crop cultivation.     

我国城市用地扩展与土地集约利用

分析了我国城市用地增长弹性系数和城市用地扩展幂指数规律,发现土地利用效益偏低、扩张速度偏快是目前我国城市用地扩展的主要特征;分析了城市用地扩展的主要驱动力,发现固定资产投资和人口增长是城市扩展的主要动力,而第三产业发展有助于抑制城市用地扩张;认为城市扩展是我国现阶段经济发展的必然结果,但我国城市土地利用应变外廷扩展为外延扩展和内涵挖潜相结合的利用方式,提高土地利用的集约度与综合效益.