Strategic interaction and dynamics under endogenous time preference

This paper presents a strategic growth model with endogenous time preference. Due to the potential lack of concavity and the differentiability of the value functions associated with each agent’s problem, we employ the theory of monotone comparative statics and supermodular games based on order and monotonicity properties on lattices. In particular, we provide the sufficient conditions of supermodularity for dynamic games with open-loop strategies based on two fundamental elements: the ability to order elements in the strategy space of the agents and the strategic complementarity which implies upward sloping best responses. The supermodular game structure of the model lets us provide the existence and the monotonicity results on the greatest and the least equilibria. We sharpen these results by showing the differentiability of the value function and the uniqueness of the best response correspondences almost everywhere and show that the stationary state Nash equilibria tend to be symmetric. Finally, we numerically analyze to what extent the strategic complementarity inherent in agents’ strategies can alter the convergence results that could have emerged under a single agent optimal growth model. In particular, we show that the initially rich can pull the poor out of the poverty trap even when sustaining a higher level of steady state capital stock for itself.     

能源、技术与经济增长——基于中国与印度的比较分析

本文在Romer(1990)内生经济增长模型的基础上,以加入能源因子和将技术因子与能源、劳动力相融合为特征,得到更贴近现实的反映经济增长的产出方程式。通过检验中国和印度1965~2004年间的实证数据,运用VAR模型、Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)等方法,对两国的能源及技术与经济增长的长期关系和短期动态影响进行了比较分析。结果显示:长期中,加入技术变量的能源因素与经济增长的弹性关系,中国表现为负,而在印度为正;技术对于经济增长的总体贡献,印度高于中国。短期中,能源与技术因素的短期波动对中国的经济增长影响较强;而资本的短期波动对印度的经济增长影响较强。     

Aggregate stock market behavior and investors’ low risk aversion

This paper studies whether investors’ high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that is able to explain aggregate stock market behavior in the US financial market. We present a consumption-based asset pricing model with a representative agent who has a ‘catching up with the Joneses’ preference to show that high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that can help explain many of the empirically observed properties of the aggregate stock market return, including the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles, the predictability of long-horizon stock returns, and the ‘leverage effect’ in return volatility.     

Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa–Samuelson, Engel's Law and other culprits

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel's Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-market service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation is more persistent and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.     

中国对外开放战略研究

基于当前我国国际收支顺差过大,外汇储备偏高、国际收支严重失衡情况,本文认为,我国必须调整原有对外开放战略,应由原来"出口导向"战略向整合国际资源,开发国内及国际两个市场战略转变,并提出相应措施。     

中印两国服务贸易的比较研究

首先利用TC和RCA指数对中印两国的服务贸易进行定量分析,结果显示中国虽然在服务贸易总量上超过印度,但其整体竞争力相对于印度有显著劣势,并且这种劣势有扩大趋势;同时通过比较发现,相对于印度,中国仅在劳动密集型的项目上有稳定和明显的优势。然后,据此提出提升我国服务贸易竞争力的几点建议。     

印度与中国包容性增长比较研究

印度与中国的经济增长模式不同,印度"藏富于民"而中国"藏富于国",印度经济增长潜力远远大于中国,印度经济增长动力既源于印度的包容性增长措施,又促进了印度的包容性增长。印度包容性增长经验给我们的启示包括改善收入分配比例,调整投资结构,降低通货膨胀,改善产品出口结构等。     

中部崛起战略研究需要深化的几个问题

提出了大中部地区的概念,并指出大中部地区的确存在"中部塌陷"的现象,这里人口占全国的一半还多,经济发展水平最落后.只有大中部兴,全国才可能兴.文章还深入分析了中部崛起的意义、目的和途径,并系统地提出了促进中部崛起,促进我国区域经济协调发展的相关对策和措施.     

论地方技术监督部门在西部大开发中职能的强化与开拓

扼要阐述了西部大开发能地方技术监督部门带来的机遇,针对西部开发中的主要内容,提出地方技术监督部门应该着力强化和开拓的领域。     

Valuing time in supply chains: Establishing limits of time-based competition

Over the past two decades the growth in international trade and the offshore migration of US manufacturing have created global supply chains with longer lead-times and slower response. This suggests that traditional supply chains have encountered limits to time-based competition in which the cost of faster replenishment exceeds the benefits. This paper explores and quantifies those limits to time-based competition in make-to-stock supply chains for functional products (products with stable demand over relatively long life cycles).     

中印服务贸易竞争力比较及对我国的启示

进入21世纪以来,随着世界经济结构的不断调整,服务贸易成为国际贸易竞争的核心,一国的服务贸易发展程度已经成为衡量一国现代化和文明程度的标准。作为两个地理上相邻的发展中大国,中国和印度服务贸易发展的方式却大不同,中国选择先发展第二产业,再向第三产业转移;而印度则选择优先发展服务业。本文通过国际市场占有率、贸易竞争优势指数、显示性比较优势指数等指标,对两国服务贸易的总体和部门国际竞争力进行分析,为提升中国服务贸易竞争力,促进两国在服务贸易领域的合作提出对策。     

Labour standards application among Chinese and Indian firms in Ghana: typical or atypical?

Despite the current interest in the growing amount of Chinese and Indian investments in African countries, little is known on the impact of such investments on the employment conditions of African workers. This study investigates the employment practices of a Chinese-owned and an Indian-owned manufacturing company in Ghana in relation to the national labour laws and international labour standards. This article argues that given the weaknesses in the institutional and financial capabilities of the state and the resultant large scope of autonomy assumed by multinational corporations (MNCs), it is highly unlikely that MNCs will voluntarily adopt a high level of labour standards without tangible benefits to the business. This is particularly the case for smaller MNCs from emerging economies such as China and India, as they often slip through the net of international pressure groups and are most unlikely to receive pressure in their home country to observe labour standards in their overseas operations. This study has policy implications for Ghana and other less developed countries that are seeking foreign direct investment to help national development.     

关于水泥混凝土休眠-唤醒剂的试验研究

研制出了一种新型混凝土化学外加剂,即混凝土"休眠-唤醒剂"。试验表明:通过掺入和控制休眠-唤醒剂的成分和掺量,可按要求控制混凝土的流动性保持时间,延长其凝结时间,并适时促进其凝结硬化,一定程度上有助于改善混凝土水化放热性能、力学性能及耐久性能,解决了新拌水泥混凝土使用时效和长距离运送的技术难题。     

绿色发展管理的中印比较

当今,绿色发展已成为人类顺应全球变化的重大共识,中印作为有影响力的人口大国,提升绿色发展水平对两国乃至全球的绿色发展都有着重要影响。中印在绿色发展模式上既有相似之处也各具特点。本文建构了绿色发展管理的二维三要素交互作用模型,即影响绿色管理源头的文化,绿色管理表征的技术、绿色管理保障的制度外维,作为管理本体的绿色个人、绿色企业与绿色政府内维,交互作用。运用该模型重点对中印绿色发展基础、发展模式、发展动力、运行监管进行了比较。本文认为:中印双方应在挖掘生态文化本源、\"漂绿\"产业结构、构筑绿色城乡、培育发展动力、完善绿色政策、创新运行机制等方面,共享经验与教训,创新互鉴,为全球绿色可持续发展做出贡献。