Drivers of cropland abandonment in mountainous areas: A household decision model on farming scale in Southwest China

Cropland abandonment has emerged as a prevalent phenomenon in the mountainous areas of China. While there is a general understanding that this new trend is driven by the rising opportunity cost of rural labor, rigorous theoretical and empirical analyses are largely absent. This paper first develops a theoretical model to investigate household decisions on farming scale when off-farm labor market is accessible and there is heterogeneity of farmland productivity and distribution. The model is capable of explaining the hidden reasons of cropland abandonment in sloping and agriculturally less-favored locations. The model also unveils the impacts of heterogeneity of household labor on fallow decisions and the efficiency loss due to an imperfect labor market. The model is empirically tested by applying the Probit and Logit estimators to a unique household and land-plot survey dataset which contains 5258 plots of 599 rural households in Chongqing, a provincial level municipality, in Southwest China. The survey shows that more than 30% of the sample plots have been abandoned, mainly since 1992. The econometric results are consistent with our theoretical expectations. This work would help policy-makers and stakeholders to identify areas with a high probability of land abandonment and farming practice which is less sustainable in the mountainous areas.     

山区农村劳动力转移对农地退耕的影响——以武陵山区为例

[目的]农地退耕是土地利用变化的重要组成部分,明晰农地退耕的影响因素可以为山区生态恢复提供新的路径。[方法]文章基于武陵山区180份农户调查数据,采用多元线性回归模型分析影响山区农地退耕的因素,重点分析山区农村劳动力转移对农地退耕的影响。[结果](1)研究区劳动力转移现象明显,85%的农户家庭存在不同程度的劳动力转移,劳动力转移比例达到51.61%,户均转移劳动力数量占家庭总人口的29.90%;(2)研究区农户退耕较为普遍,退耕农户占样本农户的55%,户均退耕面积0.31hm2;(3)非农收入和农业劳动力比例对农户的退耕面积产生了显著的正向影响,同时家庭女性劳动力数量、家庭总人数、承包地面积、种植耕地的总块数、两个地区哑变量——万木乡和丁市镇也显著影响了农户的退耕地面积。[结论]山区农村劳动力转移带来的非农收入增加促进了农户的农地退耕,但是劳动力转移带来的农业劳动力供给减少又降低了农户的退耕地面积,最终两者的作用相互抵消,使得农村劳动力转移对农户的退耕地面积产生了不可确定的影响。     

Study on the abandonment of sloping farmland in Fengjie County,Three Gorges Reservoir Area,a mountainous area in China

The farmland abandonment phenomenon in mountainous areas is a recent change in relationships between man and land that emerged in China's land-use transition. Revealing spatial distribution characteristics and influence factors of sloping farmland (SF) and abandoned farmland (AF) in mountainous areas is conducive to rational allocation and optimization on local land resources. This paper investigated regional distribution features of SF and AF in the hinterland of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) using high-resolution remote sensing images, ArcGIS spatial analysis, and statistical methods. The results found that the spatial distribution of SF and AF has an approximate characteristic under different topography, location, or accessibility backgrounds. However, within different spatial coupling relationships between SF and AF, influencing mechanisms of farmland abandonment are significantly different. The diversity of geographical locations reflecting natural and social contexts is an essential reason for this differentiation. Moreover, dominant influencing factors of farmland abandonment in the study area are natural factors such as slope and farmland quality. Socioeconomic factors, including distance to road, peasant income, and labor force proportion, guide the distribution and trend of farmland abandonment to varying degrees. Finally, four modes of farmland abandonment in TGRA have proposed and suggested that the corresponding plans for SF consolidation should be proposed based on fine classification, which is of great significance for farmland utilization and rural revitalization in underdeveloped mountainous areas.     

Analyzing the behavioural mechanism of farmland abandonment in the hilly mountainous areas in China from the perspective of farming household diversity

Revealing the mechanism under the occurrence of farmland abandonment from the perspective of farming household diversity is conducive to proposing well-directed farmland protection policies. With a thorough consideration and study of cases in some hilly mountainous areas in China, this paper uses behaviour decision models of farming households to systematically understand and analyse the behavioural mechanism leading to farmland abandonment by different types of farming households, including aged households, stable part-time households, unstable part-time households and pure households. The mechanism is empirically analysed with a logistic regression model by household survey data collected from Jiangxi and Guizhou, 2 Chinese provinces, and the results observed as follows: (1) age is a key determinant of farmland abandonment of aged households, and as the age of farm labourers increases by one year, the probability of farmland abandonment increases by 8.5 %; (2) off-farm labourers is a key determinant of farmland abandonment of stable part-time households, and for each additional number of off-farm labourers, the abandonment probability increases by 41.4 %; (3) plot features such as land quality, irrigation and distance to home, are the main determinants affecting farmland abandonment of pure households; and (4) high possibility for unstable part-time households not to abandon farmland. A series of policy measures targeted for diverse farming households are therefore finally proposed to alleviate the farmland abandonment in hilly mountainous areas and other areas with similar problems.     

劳动力转移、资本深化与农地流转

随着工业化和城镇化的深入,大量农村劳动力外出工作,户均资本投入增加,农业生产趋于资本深化,农地流转市场日渐活跃,过往的研究大多关注劳动力转移对农地流转的影响,少有提及资本深化是否及如何影响农地流转。本文首先建立了相关影响机制并提出研究假说,进而使用CFPS数据进行检验,不仅估算资本深化对农地流转的直接影响,也分析劳动力转移如何通过资本深化间接改变农地流转。研究结果表明,劳动力转移显著地促进了农户农业生产的资本深化进程,资本对劳动力投入进行了替代,同时,资本深化显著提升了种粮大户的农地经营规模。如果将农地流转细分为转入与转出,资本深化促进了转入,但抑制了转出。本研究对于优化农地资源配置,提高农地规模经营水平,促进农业生产提供了新的研究视角。     

The impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality: a case study in China

Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This article examines the impact of rural‐to‐urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income, we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. Our results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality, this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (1) migration is rational self‐selection—farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and/or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate; (2) households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate; (3) poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration.     

非农就业对家庭营林劳动力投工女性化的影响研究

根据劳动力转移新经济学理论和家庭内部劳动力分工理论,基于2018年浙江省14个县(市)681户营林调查户样本数据,运用Tobit模型分析了非农就业对营林劳动力女性化的影响。结果表明:非农就业对女性劳动力单位面积营林投工量和女性营林投工比例具有显著正向影响;非农就业对不同林种营林投入女性化有明显差异,对经济林农户家庭营林投工女性化有显著正向影响,而对用材林农户家庭营林投工女性化作用不明显。提出完善农村劳动力社会保障制度;加强农村女性劳动力营林生产技能培训;发挥女性劳动力的营林生产优势等建议。     

非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响研究——来自CHFS的实证分析

目的 在我国农村人口非农就业转移进程不断加深背景下,非农就业活动改变了农户家庭与农地之间的依附关系,研究非农就业活动对农户农地价值预期的影响,既有助于理解农地价值形成机理,又对推进我国农业农村现代化具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2015年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）农户层面的微观数据,以耕地作为农地的代表,采用OLS回归模型和中介效应模型实证分析非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响。结果 非农就业并未降低农户对农地的依赖、减少耕地要素投入,相反非农就业增强了土地替代要素的投入、激发了农户农转非的资本积累需求,从而导致农户提高了农地的价值预期。结论 （1）我国农户的非农就业转移并未完成,亟需创新和完善农村土地流转机制;（2）农地依旧是农户生存的重要保证,需积极支撑或培育专业化农业生产性服务业和智能化农业机械制造业的发展,弥补农业劳动力非农转移带来的负面效应,加快推进我国农业农村现代化。     

不同代际视角下农户耕地撂荒行为研究——基于江西省兴国县293份农户问卷调查

研究目的：基于江西省兴国县农户调研数据,分析农户代际差异对山区农村耕地撂荒的影响。研究方法：Logit和Tobit模型。研究结果：（1）调查地区有46.1%的农户撂荒耕地,且代际差异每提升一级,耕地撂荒意愿会增加9%;（2）耕地经营规模、耕地块数和土地流转是决定新生代农户耕地是否撂荒及撂荒规模的关键因素,而受教育程度、非农收入占比、土地流转、村内撂荒程度和耕地分散程度对中生代农户耕地撂荒意愿作用最大;（3）老一代农户耕地撂荒规模所受影响因素最多,且性别和土地流转对老一代农户耕地撂荒规模的减缓作用最大。研究结论：在推动耕地要素自由流动和农田基础设施建设的同时,应当考虑不同代际农户所处的生命周期阶段及其自身禀赋差距对耕地撂荒的影响。     

粮食危机与农业生产方式——粮食生产中的集体化、资本化与合作化

探讨粮食安全,不应只关注耕地、劳动力的投入不足,还应关注农业生产方式。乡村工业化的集体模式被彻底否定,中西部工业化终结;农村青壮年劳动力跨区域务工,无法兼顾农业;耕地的集体所有权受到县以上地方政府的侵蚀,耕地流失;集体经济的衰落导致投入粮食生产的劳动力和耕地不足;大资本兼并土地。这些都导致了粮食安全问题。农业雇工只能获得劳动报酬,低于工业雇工的劳动报酬,从而出现农业雇工荒;资本看中的是土地的非农用途,致使耕地流失更迅速,而组建合作社才是正确的途径。合作社既可以有效地避免耕地非农化使用,又可以有效地调动农业劳动者的积极性。     

城镇化背景下的农村剩余劳动力就业途径研究

[目的]在国家为实现工业化和现代化而大力推行城镇化的背景下,农村剩余劳动力转移问题受到多种因素的影响,劳动力的就业问题层出不穷,亟待解决。[方法]文章以农村剩余劳动力的就业途径为研究对象,分析农村剩余劳动力就业面临的问题,剖析其就业影响因素与就业方式,并对促进农村剩余劳动力的就业提出建议。[结果]研究结果表明,我国农村剩余劳动力自身竞争力弱,且社会保障和劳动力市场机制不完善是目前农村剩余劳动力就业存在的主要问题;受教育程度、外出务工经历、年龄、求职成本是影响农村劳动力就业的主要因素;农村劳动力就业方式更倾向于通过亲人或朋友介绍。[结论]针对我国农村剩余劳动力就业现状,提出完善农村劳动力的培训管理机制、大力发展乡村特色生态旅游产业、加强就业服务体系建设、强化土地制度和户籍制度改革等建议。     

我国丘陵山区农机化水平影响因素及区划研究*——基于全国丘陵山区238个县（市）的调研数据

[目的]通过对全国丘陵山区县(市)与农机化有关的社会、经济和自然条件等因素进行调研所获取的238个有效样本进行分析,研究影响我国丘陵山区农机化水平的因素及其贡献,进而对我国丘陵山区进行区域划分。[方法]运用线性回归法对影响丘陵山区农机化水平的影响因素进行分析,进而对农机化水平产生显著影响的因素进行聚类分析。[结果]国内生产总值、农业劳动力数量对农机化水平产生极显著影响,耕地禀赋条件、务工工资、耕地规模、农机合作社数量和农机推广人员数量对农机化水平产生显著影响。对我国丘陵山区农机化水平呈正相关关系的因素有国内生产总值、务工工资、耕地规模、农机合作社数量,呈负相关的因素有耕地禀赋条件、农业劳动力数量、农机推广人员数量和农机化水平。[结论]我国可丘陵山区划分为中西、东南部地区,北部地区和东部沿海地区3大类地区。     

家庭禀赋对山区农户林业相关生计策略的影响研究

基于浙江省山区315户农户的调查数据,描述了山区农户的生计策略、不同类型农户的家庭禀赋、收入水平及来源,运用mlogit模型就家庭禀赋对山区农户林业相关生计策略的影响进行实证分析。结果表明:家庭禀赋对山区农户林业相关生计策略具有显著影响;在人力资本指标中,劳动力人数、劳动力平均健康程度对农户选择林业专业化型、林业补充型、生计多样化型生计策略具有一定的正向影响;劳动力平均受教育程度对选择林业补充型生计策略有显著的正向影响;在自然资本指标中,林地面积对农户选择林业专业化型生计策略具有正向影响;耕地面积则对于林业补充型生计策略的选择具有正向影响;在社会资本指标中,家族能人数量对于农户选择林业专业化型、林业补充型、生计多样化型具有显著的正向影响。因此,提出促进非农就业,鼓励自主创业;充分利用自然资本;加强山区农户的人力资本建设等建议。     

农地证券化、劳动力转移与城乡收入分配

研究目的:通过建立反映农地资产变现能力作用机制的城乡二元结构模型,为中国城市化过程中的劳动力暂时性转移和城乡收入分配恶化现象提供新的理论解释。研究方法:通过数值模拟和统计检验方法,分析部门劳动生产率、转移成本和土地融资变现能力对劳动力转移数量、城乡收入分配的影响。研究结果:(1)农业和非农部门的技术进步都会对农村剩余劳动力产生正向影响;(2)清晰界定的土地产权会通过增强资产融资变现能力对农村劳动力迁移产生促进作用;(3)农地证券化增强土地资产的融资变现能力,为劳动力完全转移提供生活重置成本,有助于缩小城乡收入差距。研究结论:农地证券化有助于农户克服资本约束,实现劳动力的永久性转移,形成缩小城乡收入差距的长效机制。     

农村耕地抛荒的影响因素及治理研究——基于二次文献调查法

农村耕地抛荒是我国在城镇化发展和经济社会转型时期农村出现的一个普遍而现实的问题。农村耕地的抛荒导致农村耕地的不充分利用和有限耕地资源的极大浪费,虽然我国废除了农业税,并不断延长农村耕地承包期的时间,但农村耕地抛荒现象依然没得到遏制,本文通过二次文献调查法,搜集耕地抛荒相关的论文、报道共计557篇,通过数据整理和编码,分析和探讨当前我国农村地区的耕地抛荒问题。     

Land rental markets and labor productivity: Evidence from rural China

This study investigates the impact of the land rental market on labor productivity in rural China. Particular attention is given to farm and nonfarm labor productivity. Using 2012 household‐level data and a multinomial endogenous switching treatment regression technique, we find that rural households renting in farmland increased labor productivity in the farm sector by about 55%, whereas labor productivity in the nonfarm sector decreased by about 6%. We also find that rural households renting out farmland had lower labor productivity in both the farm and nonfarm sectors by 13% and 9%, respectively. More family labor transferred from the farm to the nonfarm sector after renting out land.     

The effects of farmland use rights trading and labor outmigration on the governance of the irrigation commons: Evidence from China

The governance of the commons depends on collective action by resource users, which may be influenced by land use dynamics and changes in livelihood. We examine the case of China that has experienced massive outmigration of its rural population and significant changes to its land use policy. We contribute to the literature by examining the interaction effects of farmland use rights trading and rural labor out migration on collective action for the governance of the irrigation commons, which has the potential to open up a new line of theoretical and empirical inquiry. Using the socio-ecological system framework, we run ordered probit regression based on data from a survey of 125 villages in 18 provinces in China. We find that a moderate degree of farmland use rights trading has a positive effect on collective action for the governance of the irrigation commons and can slow down and mitigate the negative effect of rural labor outmigration. We conclude with implications for land use policy and governance of the commons.     

Does labor migration affect rural land transfer? Evidence from China

Land transfer in rural areas and labor migration from rural areas to cities are both becoming common in China due to the increasing development of the non-agricultural sector resulting from rapid urbanization. Many rural labours who migrated to cities left their land in rural areas, and in most cases, this land was abandoned. To make full use of abandoned land in rural areas, the central government in China has formulated policies to promote rural land transfer, but rural land transfer still lags far behind labor migration in China. Drivers of rural land transfer still need to be explored. In addition, the labor migration scale shows dynamic features as the labor migration of more family members is substituted for that of individuals recent years. Thus, the phased feature of household labor migration should be taken into consideration to examine the phased influence of the labor migration scale on rural land transfer. Considering the probability threshold effect of the impact of labor migration on rural land transfer, a threshold model was used to perform the empirical analysis. Based on the threshold model and CHARLS 2015 data, this study empirically analysed the impact of the labor migration scale on rural land transfer. On the national level, labor migration will significantly promote rural land transfer if it is less than or equal to 0.125, but when it is greater than 0.125, its impact on land transfer is not significant. On the basis of the spatial differentiation of rural land transfer, four regions were divided to do the regional threshold regression analysis. On the regional level, the thresholds of labor migration scale of the central region, the east region and the west region are 0.112, 0.221 and 0.133 respectively, and there is no threshold in the north region. The results show that labor migration have a phased impact on rural land transfer in China and policies should be targeted to different labor migration phases and different regions.     

Capital accumulation and the growth of aggregate agricultural production

This report empirically examines the role which capital accumulation plays in the growth of agricultural production potential. The report assumes that the degree to which available technology can be implemented in a nation's agricultural sector depends on accumulated investments that have been made in the sector. Results from estimating aggregate agricultural production functions show the primary importance of rural labor in accounting for agricultural gdp and crop production. Capital accumulation is the dominant explainer of livestock production. Estimation results support the conjecture that capital tends to save scarce land resources (substitute relationship) and use rural labor (complementarity relationship). Output supply elasticities derived from the estimated equations tend to be large. The large elasticities imply that price distortions have had large impacts on resource use and production.     

农村电子商务发展与农村富余劳动力安置问题研究

随着中国城镇化进程不断推进,农村现代化加速运行,尤其是中国农村土地制度产生了重大的变革,中国农村需要面对的剩余劳动力转移与安置问题愈发严重。怎么将这些劳动力从农业转移到其它生产部门,在安置劳动力保证社会平稳过渡的同时,实现农村经济长期可持续发展,是我国在实现农业现代化与新型城市化中必须要解决的问题。文章为研究我国的富余劳动力安置问题,从中国农村土地流转改革与新型城镇化发展这一重要现实背景出发,分析目前与未来中国产生大量农村富余劳动力的转移安置与可持续发展的前景,在产业不断优化转移的大趋势下以农村电商的发展为突破口,从目前我国农村电子商务的现状、问题以及农村电商的发展出路进行了分析,得出农村电商将成为中国农村剩余劳动力的重要安置路径之一。