Geographical downscaling of outputs provided by an economic farm model calibrated at the regional level

There is a strong need for accurate and spatially referenced information regarding policy making and model linkage. This need has been expressed by land users, and policy and decision makers in order to estimate both spatially and locally the impacts of European policy (like the Common Agricultural Policy) and/or global changes on farm-groups. These entities are defined according to variables such as altitude, economic size and type of farming (referring to land uses). European farm-groups are provided through the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) as statistical information delivered at regional level. The aim of the study is to map locally farm-group probabilities within each region. The mapping of the farm-groups is done in two steps: (1) by mapping locally the co-variables associated to the farm-groups, i.e. altitude and land uses; (2) by using regional FADN data as a priori knowledge for transforming land uses and altitude information into farm-groups location probabilities within each region. The downscaling process focuses on the land use mapping since land use data are originally point information located every 18 km. Interpolation of land use data is done at 100 m by using co-variables like land cover, altitude, climate and soil data which are continuous layers usually provided at fine resolution. Once the farm-groups are mapped, European Policy and global changes scenarios are run through an agro-economic model for assessing environmental impacts locally.     

Effects of European Union agricultural policies on the sustainability of grazingland use in a typical Greek rural area

Recent changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) introduced different definitions regarding the eligibility of various types of land used by grazing animals. In particular, shrublands and other low-quality areas which have traditionally been used as grazinglands are now not eligible for European Union income support payments. Subject to these changes, a large part of livestock farms will be affected, being partially or fully deprived of EU income support. In addition to these policy-driven changes, pasture-fed livestock farms in Greece are faced with a unique system of grazingland allocation, as all grazing areas in the country are state-owned. These areas are allocated for a short period either directly to farmers who are permanent residents of the Municipalities or to other livestock farmers through an auction system, which does not take into account the grazing capacity thus bringing about environmental degradation. This paper investigates the effects of CAP changes and of this communal land allocation system based on the findings of a typological analysis. The study focuses on a typical Greek territory in terms of land uses, economic activities and sociodemographic developments. Data from a questionnaire survey are used to build a typology of local livestock farms in terms of their nutritional management and land use characteristics and then the profile of each type is investigated through the estimation of a Multinomial Logit Model where the dependent variable is the cluster participation. Three distinct types of farms (clusters) are determined. Cluster 1 includes traditional farms which rear sheep and goats and bovine for meat, which are highly dependent on grazingland uses and EU income support. Cluster 2 farms – mainly sheep and goat – have evolved a ‘double’ dependency on land in the form of grazingland but also of cropland for feedstuff production, which renders them more resilient to policy changes. Finally, Cluster 3 farms are intensive dairy cattle farms and use artificial (cultivated) privately-owned grazinglands and cropland for feedstuff production. Market-oriented measures are proposed for each type and suggestions for an integrated land use plan are made, including long-term leasing of land and the consideration of environmental criteria for land allocation, thus rendering farmers responsible for keeping their land in a good production state.     

The effects of EU agricultural policy changes on farmers' risk attitudes

This analysis utilises a model of production under risk estimatedon Finnish farm-level data to measure farmers' risk attitudesin a changing policy environment. We find evidence of heterogeneousrisk preferences among farmers, as well as notable changes overtime in farmers' degree of risk aversion. This result is dueto the increase in the non-random part of farm income generatedby the policy change after Finland's European Union accession.The analysis confirms the assertion that agricultural policiesthat are decoupled from production do affect input use and cropmix through their effect on farmers' risk attitudes.     

Agricultural decline and sustainable development on mountain areas in Greece: Sustainability assessment of future scenarios

Agricultural decline may pose an important threat to mountain biodiversity but it also constitutes a driving force of socio-economic transformation. The aim of this study is to investigate the implications of alternative agricultural policy scenarios on the sustainable development of Greek mountain areas using a case study approach (Zagori region, Greece). Two agricultural policy scenarios were explored and assessed against a list of sustainability objectives. Causal relationships among drivers of changes and sustainability objectives were explored using Network Analysis. Our analysis has shown that agricultural liberalisation is expected to have devastating effects on the development of the area and it was strongly opposed as an alternative future by the local stakeholders. The analysis of the driver's causal relationship has also revealed that in order to ensure the sustainable development of the area it is necessary to sustain low input extensive farming, to promote mild tourism development and to enhance the operational efficiency of the National Park. Moreover, in order to reconcile agricultural decline, biodiversity and sustainable development, policy-management recommendations must be drawn at multiple administrative levels and complementary policy interventions within and between levels are required. It is thus, important that EU agricultural policies are complemented by national-regional interventions in order to regulate the fragile balance between agriculture and tourism. Finally, this study has shown that the combination of scenario analysis and sustainability assessment can provide an efficient tool to inform management strategies for sustainable development.     

Forest management plan as a policy instrument: Carrot, stick or sermon?

Technical aspects of forest management planning as decision-support have been addressed in numerous scientific studies. However, forest management plans (FMPs) also play a significant, but largely neglected, role as forest policy instruments. We have examined the policy context and planning practices in two contrasting case countries, revealing striking differences in policy instrumentation. In Sweden, FMPs mainly serve for informational steering, with under-utilised potential for providing individualised advice. In Lithuania, the plans are primarily regulatory, serving for effective control but with several deficiencies, notably excessive costs and institutionalised corruption. The study demonstrates that policy analyses can be fruitfully grounded in the empirics of planning practices.     

Farm-based modelling of the EU sugar reform: impact on Belgian sugar beet suppliers

A mathematical programming model, calibrated on individual farmdata, is used to analyse the reform of the common market organisation(CMO) in the sugar sector of the European Union. The model includesa precautionary farm supply function for out-of-quota sugarbeet that is estimated as part of a simultaneous system of first-orderconditions. Simulation results from a sample of Belgian sugarbeet farms show that the sugar CMO reform induces differentsupply and income effects across farms depending on their shareof out-of-quota sugar beet relative to their total beet supplyand their quota rent. A further cut in the minimum price ofsugar beet initiates structural change in the farm sector.     

The trade distorting effects of export refunds: The case of beef exports to Africa

The usual sale of European agricultural products to Africa using export refunds has been heavily discussed in recent decades. At the centre of the discussion are the consequences on the agricultural producers in Western and Southern Africa. There are two different points of view: On the one hand, the European Union's (EU) export policy reduces the prices on these markets and relieves high burdens on local producers; on the other hand are claims that refunds do not influence local prices significantly. Hence, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has no effect on markets of third countries, besides depressing world market prices. This paper focuses on the effects of EU's export subsidies for beef exports on its market share in several developing countries. Twenty-seven African countries were analysed using a fixed-effects model between 1988 and 2000. The results clearly show a highly significant positive impact of the export refund rate on the market and the import share. With its export policy, the EU raises its market position and edges out other competitors.     

The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship in England: Extension or dilution in agri-environment policy?

Agri-environment schemes were introduced in the mid-1980s. Their primary objectives have developed from initially aiming to hold back intensification towards stimulating environmental enhancement. The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) in England represents a third stage in seeking to extend the coverage of schemes across the majority of agricultural land. This aims to influence land use along the whole of the intensive margin. The ELS offers a wide range of options for which farmers are awarded points. Selection of options equivalent to 30 points per ha in lowland areas entitles farmers to a payment of £30 per ha. By September 2007, 4.4 million ha had been entered into the scheme, equivalent to 47% of the agricultural area. From amongst the options on offer, 34% of points were for boundary options, 20% for intensive grass options, 16% for management plans and 13% for options taking arable land out of production. The choice of options varies across the country with a higher proportion of the agricultural area entered in the East. Entry into the scheme is associated with total agricultural area, cereals farming, larger farms, a lower proportion of area in Environmentally Sensitive Area and Countryside Stewardship schemes and grazing livestock numbers. While the ELS has introduced a large number of new entrants into agri-environment schemes, the extent of the environmental impact is uncertain. Given the large number of options available, it is likely that farmers will have chosen options that involve relatively little change and incur limited cost. At the same time, it would be surprising if the environmental gains were of the types most valued within local areas. The ELS approach implies that public goods provided from agricultural land should be paid for irrespective of what would have happened in the absence of the scheme. While this may be a fairer approach, it may also undermine the idea of land stewardship and imply that payments will continue to be required in the long term in order to sustain provision. The ELS does establish a framework within which incentives could be targeted to deliver specific benefits within particular contexts and suggestions are made as to how policy might be developed for this.