有限理性经济人假说下的财务报告列报和使用

本文在分析西蒙的有限理性经济人假说理论的基础上,论述了其经济意义:知识具有时间和主体的相对性;一般人们发现和选择的只能是满意的方案而不是最优方案;有限理性经济人在进行经济活动时,一般遵循的是程序理性穴Procedualrationality雪而非结果理性穴Rationalityofoutcome雪;无论是完全理性经济人假说,还是有限理性经济人假说,其本质都是经济人假说,经济人的行为动机一定是追求利益最大化。根据这一意义,提出了在有限理性经济人假说理论下,财务报告所列报的是根据财务报告目标要求,依据会计规则所产生的财务信息,这种财务信息必定存在“规则性失真”和信息的不完全性;此外,会计规则内容在不同时期会发生变动,以适应不同时期不同利益集团之间利益协调的改变,为此,财务报告的列报内容也会发生相应的改变。这一结论的现实意义是:人们使用财务报告时,首先,必须具备必要的经济学、会计学、管理学等相关知识;其次,对财务报告所提供的信息应允许有一定范围的“失真”;第三,对信息的不全面性和不完整性以及财务报告内容的变化要有充分的估计和思想准备。只有这样,才能正确地理解和使用财务报告。     

The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies1

The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long‐term output by about 12–17 percent. The effect is larger in smaller countries in which the banking sector presented more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy has been the most efficient tool in dealing with the crises, whereas the effect of monetary policy has been rather modest. Flexible exchange rates are found to attenuate the impact of the crises in the short and medium term, but to amplify the effect in the long run. International Monetary Fund support is found to moderate the effect in the long run. Finally, the effect in the CEECs is considerably larger than in the EU advanced economies.     

The short- and long-run impacts of financial crises on youth unemployment in OECD countries

The impact of financial crises on the youth unemployment rate (YUR), compared to the total unemployment rate (UR), is estimated for a panel of OECD countries over the period 1981–2009, using bias-corrected dynamic panel data estimators of short- and long-run coefficients. Both YUR and UR are found highly persistent. Also, short- and long-run effects of financial crises on YUR are significantly large, respectively, some 1.9 and 1.5–1.7 times higher than the short- and long-run effects on UR. Similar results are found for the unemployment impacts of GDP growth lagged 1 year and institutional variables. These results are robust to various dynamic specifications.     

Domestic financial market frictions,unrestricted international capital flows,and crises in small open economies

Summary. We present an example of a small open economy where small increases in the world interest rate may induce a sharp decline in output and a precipitous depreciation of the exchange rate. Due to a costly state verification problem in domestic credit markets, combined with unrestricted international capital flows, our economy generates two long-run equilibria, one with low GDP and a relatively depreciated real exchange rate (RER), and one with high GDP and a relatively appreciated RER. The first is always a saddle, while the second may be a sink or a source, depending on the level of the world interest rate. A crisis is identified with the economy switching from an equilibrium path approaching the high-output steady state to the saddlepath approaching the low-output steady state. In Mexicos recent history, periods of growth associated with appreciation of the RER have alternated with periods of sharp contraction and depreciation of the RER. Our economy displays such behavior in response to changes in the world interest rate.Received: 9 April 2002, Revised: 20 March 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F4.G. Antinolfi, E. Huybens: We thank Steve Fazzari, Tim Kehoe, Todd Keister, Manuel Santos, Karl Shell and especially Bruce Smith for very helpful discussions. Jaime Calleja Alderete, Eduardo Camero Godínez, and Juan Vargas Hernández provided excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are ours. Huybens was an assistant professor in the Centro de Investigación Económica, ITAM, at the time this article was written, and part of this work was completed while Antinolfi was a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not reflect those of the World Bank or the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Correspondence to: G. Antinolfi     

The labour market effects of financial crises

This paper examines how the 2008–2009 financial crisis affected labour markets in Europe, and how this impact depended on employment protection laws. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, our estimates isolate the effect of the lack of credit on the labour market from that of the general decline in aggregate economic activity. We find large and negative impacts of the credit shock on total employment, particularly on temporary, unskilled and young workers. These impacts were significantly larger in countries with stronger legal protection of permanent workers from dismissal. This suggests that the differential impact of the crisis across countries was not entirely driven by the heterogeneity of the credit shock, but also by labour regulations. Given regulatory inflexibility in adjusting the permanent workforce, firms responded to tightening financial constraints by disproportionately laying off temporary workers (who tend to be younger and less skilled than permanent workers).     

Dealer behaviour in the Euro money market during times of crisis

This article shows how the recent money market disruptions with elevated counterparty risks and uncertainty about the fundamental value of liquidity influenced the trading behaviour of a key dealer in the Euro money market. The complete trading record in the unsecured segment of the money market for 2007 and 2008 is used to estimate a stylized pricing model, which explicitly accounts for the over-the-counter structure. The empirical results suggest that the market maker learns from order flow, but this information aggregation was increasingly hampered as the crisis unfolded.     

Speculative bubbles,financial crises and convergence in global real estate investment trusts

We test for price bubbles in 14 national real estate investment trust (REIT) markets, and measure the degree of their convergence towards a common trend. Our methodology consists of the recently developed test of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2014) for mildly explosive processes, and the Phillips and Sul (2007) method for modelling convergence among random variables. We find evidence of explosive behaviour in index levels of seven of the 14 markets. In contrast, explosive dynamics are found in only one price/dividend ratio. More than half of the episodes of explosive behaviour are date-stamped to periods prior to the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We also discover a number of periods over which the markets converge towards a common trend. Interestingly, all of the convergence intervals coincide either with periods of crisis, or with periods of market exuberance. For instance, evidence of convergence is found during the 2000 dot-com crash, the 2007–2009 subprime crisis and the 2010–2013 European sovereign debt crisis, as well as over the bubble period of 2004–2005.     

The impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty

Financial crises can have severe negative effects on investment. One reason for this is that financial crises increase uncertainty, increasing the real option value of delaying investment. In this paper, we show that the negative effect of crises on investment differs significantly across countries: in countries with low tolerance for uncertainty, the negative effect is strong. The negative effect is absent in countries that are more tolerant of uncertainty. These findings are similar across different types of financial crisis; they vary as predicted across type of investor, asset and industry; and they are not driven by uncertainty-averse countries adopting more rigid institutions.     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

The impact of news,oil prices,and global market developments on Russian financial markets1

This paper analyses the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, regarding returns, energy news affects returns, while news from the war in Chechnya is not significant. Market volatility does not appear to be sensitive to either type of news. Second, a significant effect of the growth in oil prices on Russian stock returns is detected. Third, the international influence on Russian financial markets depends upon the degree of financial liberalization. The higher the degree of financial liberalization, the stronger is the impact of US stock returns on Russian financial markets. In addition, banking reform and interest rate liberalization efforts seem to dictate the globalization of Russian stock markets, while it is the progress in liberalizing securities markets and non‐bank financial institutions that matters more for the globalization of Russian bond markets.     

Family ties and employment behavior: The role of financial intermediaries

We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on labor participation and employment type in China. Although existing studies examine these effects separately, we investigate the effects of both factors in one model. We give empirical evidence to support earlier arguments that family ties negatively affect labor force participation and positively affect self‐/family‐employment behavior and that financial development positively affects labor force participation. Departing from the extant literature, our results overall indicate a compensating effect of financial intermediaries for family ties in labor participation and employment type. We further argue that there are gender, urban/rural, and age differences in the role of financial intermediaries. The effect of financial intermediaries on the strength of family ties is more relevant for female, rural, and younger people compared to male, urban, and older people.     

国内外金融创新进展及其在中国的发展趋势

当前中国金融市场进入了全面开放时期,国内外金融机构将在同一个市场环境和同一套监管规则下直接竞争。在新的竞争形势下,实体经济对金融服务的需求量正在迅速扩大,需求层次也在不断提高,金融创新将进入全新的发展时期。本文在对国内外金融创新现状做出全面分析和评价的基础上,从金融业务创新、金融体制改革的深化、资产证券化和证券投资机构化、衍生金融工具市场发展和混业经营等多个角度,探讨了中国金融创新的发展趋势。     

企业财务风险的防范措施

在一个较长的时期内,企业财务风险是我国国民经济面临的较为重要的一种风险。这一风险的形成,既有企业外部法律和经济环境变动的影响,又有企业内部机制和管理中存在先天不足的原因。通过对我国国有企业的总体分析可以看出,我国国有企业已经进入高财务风险时期,发展趋势令人担忧,防范和化解财务风险的任务日益紧迫。     

我国个人投资发展:金融创新的推进力

随着中国市场经济的发展,我国居民的个人收入大幅度提高,除保证当前基本生活以外,拥有一定个人资产的人已不在少数;另一方面,计划经济下国家统一的福利也逐渐被市场运作所代替.因此,个人为了一定的经济目标,以投资的形式处置个人资产已不是少数"资本家"的专利,个人投资正逐渐成为一种大众经济行为,这不仅将影响人们的传统思维方式、影响整个中国经济的发展,更为现实的是它对于理财产品、金融工具、金融制度提出了更高的要求,将在很大程度上推进我国金融创新的实现.     

The role of domestic financial and economic development in financial integration

Using two-step system generalized method-of-moments on an unbalanced panel of 75 countries from 1996 to 2010, this study shows that financial development’s effect on the pace of a country’s financial integration is conditional on economic development. Indeed, the results validate the observation that greater financial development conditioned on similar levels of economic development should precede closer financial integration.     

The effect of financial education training on the financial literacy of Spanish students in PISA

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of financial education training on Spanish secondary students. To do this, we rely on data from PISA 2012. This included an assessment of students’ financial literacy for the first time. In order to identify the causal effect of financial education courses, we employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to compare the outcomes of students receiving and not receiving education on financial concepts for two different subjects (financial literacy and reading comprehension). Our results suggest that financial education programs only have an impact if they are taught as part of other subjects, i.e. by means of a cross-curricular approach.     

The effects of a financial literacy intervention on the financial and economic knowledge of high school students

The authors taught financial concepts to students in 12th-grade economics classes, where one treatment was intensive in money management (MM) topics and the other was intensive in financial investment (FI) topics. Two control groups, consisting of 11th-grade students with no exposure to economics and 12th-grade economics students, received no treatment. Both treatment groups showed a 13 percentage point increase in test scores from pretest to posttest, while neither control group showed gains. Neither treatment group outperformed the other in the financial literacy test.     

后金融危机时期我国钢铁产业安全评价研究——基于公司治理视角

论文从公司治理视角分析后金融危机时期我国钢铁产业安全问题。从方法运用来看,模糊综合评价法是分析企业行为影响产业安全的合适方法。从实证结果来看,第一,以2008年为基期,2009年至2012年我国钢铁产业安全情况呈逐年上升趋势;第二,各年份的企业拥有大股东状况、经理人市场的竞争程度、下游市场的竞争程度和政府推动产业内并购力度等对产业安全影响效果的促进作用基本是逐渐提高的;第三,企业共同拥有大股东状况和政府推动产业内并购力度两个指标在企业竞合行为对产业安全影响方面起着至关重要的作用。最后,论文从两个方面对未来提升钢铁产业安全和加强钢铁企业治理建设提出政策建议。     

Time,trading and algorithms in financial sector security

This article examines the financial security issues raised by the rapid development of high-frequency trading (HFT). HFT involves automated algorithmic trading of financial instruments where the objective is to reduce the time scale between the initiation and execution of trades to microseconds (or even nanoseconds) so as to reap competitive advantage. After outlining the contours of a HFT world, the presentation goes on to discuss some of its important consequences and implications. Several matters are discussed in this context: market manipulation, hacking, index construction and violence. Of particular significance for the notion of financial security is the issue of time as embodied in algorithmic trading. In turn this raises concerns over the regulation and management of this new field of financial innovation and trading activity.     

财务分析在企业发展中的重要作用

财务分析是以财务报告及其相关资料为主要依据,对企业的财务状况和经营成果进行评价和剖析,反映企业在运营过程中的利弊得失、发展趋势,从而为改进企业财务管理工作和优化经济决策提供重要的财务信息。财务分析是分析企业经济发展的有效手段,通过对企业投资收益能力、企业资金周转情况等的分析,可了解企业的发展状况和普遍存在的问题,为企业长期稳固发展提供重要依据。