Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

基于产权与利用视角的台中市土地变化分析

[目的]以我国台湾省台中市为研究对象,利用多源统计数据,对其2011—2015年土地产权变化及土地利用变化进行分析,以揭示台中市几年来土地产权变化和土地利用变化的主要特征。[方法]文章主要采用描述性分析和统计分析方法。[结果](1)2011—2014年台中市共计增加登记土地产权面积621 hm2,公私共有产权土地面积先减少后增加,至2014年达到643hm2。(2)已登记非都市土地总面积,从2011年起处于先减少、后增加的趋势,特别是2014年已登记非都市土地总面积增加较多,相对于2013年增加了1.4196万hm2。(3)都市发展区中的住宅用地、商业用地、文教用地、特定专用区的面积皆有增长,而工业用地、公共设施用地、其他区的面积有所下降;非都市发展区中的保护区面积比较稳定,而农业区、风景区和河川区的面积处在调整的状态。[结论](1)台中市私有土地面积占比处于下降趋势,但整体不是非常明显;土地所有制包括公有、私有和公私共有等多种形式完全可以共存;东南亚人取得的土地所有权数量在总体上增减变化不大;(2)台中市都市发展区用地虽有增长但增幅较小,而都市区土地、非都市区土地内部的用途竞争导致了各类用地功能区的面积此消彼长;土地所有制对城市用地扩展没有构成制约,即土地所有制不是城市发展的分歧所在;(3)非都市土地转换为都市土地,不仅取决于各类土地竞租能力的差异,还取决于都市发展计划与土地使用分区管制,土地用途转换应以经济高质量发展与居民社会福利增进为目标。最后,提出完善土地权利结构体系,增加公有土地面积占比来保障社会公共福利等政策建议。     

Analysis of the non-productive land use in Lithuania

The preservation of high-quality agricultural land and its proper use is a relevant task on a global scale. A specific problem is raised by the fact that agricultural land is a limited and a practically non-renewable natural resource. The use of land differs throughout the territory of Lithuania. Some areas are favourable to agriculture, while others are not. Less favoured agricultural areas include territories where agricultural activities are unprofitable due to low soil fertility, areas where the density of the rural population is lower than the national average, and areas where the viability of rural communities is decreasing. When planning the use of land, a priority must be given to the public interest, which also includes preservation and improvement of the land used for agriculture and forestry. It is necessary to harmonize natural (ecological) and agricultural systems, and on that basis it is necessary to economically and legally regulate the growth of production. Human agricultural activity must be adapted to the real natural conditions. Thus the environment would suffer minimum changes.The aim of the article is to conduct a systematic planning analysis of the non-productive land use in Lithuania and to develop a model suggesting the ways how to use the non-productive land.     

Public preferences for controlling an invasive species in public and private spaces

Discrete choice experiments have been used in this case study to assess community benefits for the control of red imported fire ants, an aggressive ant species that were introduced by accident in 2001 to Brisbane, Australia. This invasive species could have substantial impacts on agricultural production, biodiversity, ecosystem services, infrastructure and communities. Values for avoiding impacts on three particular land uses have been assessed in this study with discrete choice experiments. The results indicated that on a per hectare basis, the value estimates to avoid infestation in public areas (schools and parks), were much higher than for private areas (housing) or natural bushland areas (protected native vegetation). There were high levels of support for eradication rather than containment strategies, despite the additional costs involved. The use of both random parameters logit and latent class models demonstrates that there is a significant heterogeneity in preferences and values for controlling or eradicating the invasive species, indicating that it may be challenging to gain and maintain political support for management options, particularly if these involve large costs or inconvenience to households.     

Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of São Félix do Xingú in South Pará

The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large‐scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so‐called “arc of deforestation”. Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Pará (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of São Félix do Xingú, South of Pará This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and 1ivestock economics.studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.     

How feasible is regional integration for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban–rural interface? Evidence from Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region in China

Competition among different uses for land is becoming acute under the process of urbanization, and conflicts related to this competition are becoming more frequent and more complex. This article presents a methodology for confronting this issue. By applying an integrated framework, we explore the implicit role of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Regional Integration (BRI) policy in land use conflicts by focusing on the urban-rural interface, and try to address the research question: “How feasible is BRI for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban-rural interface?” An original structure of the analysis is developed based on the identification of three types of conflicts, namely, conflicts over land use structure, conflicts over land conversion and conflicts over landscape pattern. According to the interactions and relationships among these conflicts, we define broad categories of land use conflict areas. Indeed, these conflicts are all related to the unplanned use of agricultural land reserves, which competes with other more immediate uses, and the over-exploitation of land resources caused by unsustainable urban practices. This policy is clearly a critical objective for optimizing the land use structure. It, however, fails to reconcile the conflicts over land conversion and landscape pattern, especially for considerable agricultural land conversion to non-agricultural uses, and low-density development pattern with mixed residential and industrial land uses. Hence, alternative strategies involving public participation, spatial equity, rural revitalization, land-use system reform, and new type of urbanization, can be identified as viable solutions for land use conflict management, which may be complementary to regional integration. The findings of our paper may also contribute to the policy debate on BRI concerning land use planning and regional sustainability.     

Migration,remittances and smallholder decision-making: Implications for land use and livelihood change in Central America

We model Central American migrant-sending household agricultural practices given labor losses and the concomitant infusion of remittances. Under the new economics of labor migration (NELM) framework, it is hypothesized that smallholder farm households invest remittance income in their land either to increase crop production or to transition to cattle ranching. We test this hypothesis by developing a combination of multivariate logistic, Poisson and beta regression techniques using Latin American Migration Project data to determine how agricultural land use change compared among migrant and non-migrant households in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Results indicate that a rise in months spent abroad and remittances returned do not translate into a higher percentage of farm sales, intensification or transition to cattle ranching – counter to NELM. However, farmers are investing remittances to increase row crop and pasture land holdings. These findings suggest remittance investments in quantitative increase rather than qualitative change in land use practices. Given the expansive land demands supporting low intensity smallholder agriculture and cattle, and the land degradation cattle precipitate particularly, the trend does not augur well for the sustainability of rural landscapes increasingly transformed by international remittances. Appropriate policies to champion coupled human-land system sustainability in Central America might usefully consider viable land use alternatives to remittance investments dedicated to crop and pasture expansion.     

Forests or fields? A response to the theory that tropical forest conservation poses a threat to the poor

A rebuttal is provided of David Wood's proposal to open up tropical forests to agricultural uses. Concern is raised that his proposal exaggerates the ability of forests to regenerate after agricultural uses, sacrifices tropical forests in the name of alleviating poverty and in support of large land owners, and prevents valuable potential resource use by local populations. There is misunderstanding by Wood of conservationists' postures and the cause of current deforestation. In Brazil, deforestation has occurred primarily for low productivity cattle pasture (62% of all private land in the Amazon region in ranches over 1000 hectares-ha). Only 11% of private Amazonian land was in farms of less than 100 ha; only 30% of this size farm area was involved in 1991 in deforestation, while 70% of deforestation took place on ranches over 100 ha. Mass migrations of Brazil's population from the northeast to the Transamazon Highway and from Parana to Rondonia were impelled by increasing concentration of land tenure in migrant areas, and not by population growth. The rate of deforestation has slowed due to the economic recession. A World Bank study indicates that redistributing unproductive large landholdings in northeastern Brazil would increase agricultural output by 80%. The agricultural productivity of tropic areas is not as assured; Wood's support is based on preliminary findings, which are being revised with more cautionary thinking. Wood also understates the maintenance of soil fertility with fertilizers. The issue of scale also affects the use of agroforestry and perennial crop plantations such as rubber and cacao, which can only absorb the production of small areas, due to marketing constraints and physical resource limitations. Conservationists have not effectively redirected World Bank efforts to protect environments and help the impoverished, as suggested by Wood. Forest recovery has been very slow in large cattle pastures, and would take thousands of years if the land is left undisturbed. Recovery even under traditional shifting cultivation schemes is slower than Wood recognizes. Wood's argument that deforestation is temporary is not sufficient to invalidate the claim for conservation now. Reallocation is really the same as land extensification; current practices in Brazil will not support large human populations. The solution is to develop environmental services and find other means to support rural populations in urban areas.     

Patterns and processes of pasture to crop conversion in Brazil: Evidence from Mato Grosso State

The rate and location of cropland expansion onto cattle pastures in Brazil could affect global food security, climate change, and economic growth. We combined mapping, statistical modeling, and qualitative methods to investigate patterns and processes of pasture to crop conversion (P2C) in Mato Grosso State (MT), Brazil, a globally important center of agricultural production. P2C land constituted 49% of cropland expansion from 2000 to 2013. For a random sample of ̃250 m pixels in MT, we estimated a regression model skilled at predicting P2C land in the rest of the state as a function of cattle ranching suitability, cropping suitability, and P2C conversion costs. Surprisingly, just 1/7 of pasture agronomically suitable for cultivation had undergone P2C. Hedonic regressions revealed that agronomic characteristics of land were associated with less than 20% of the variation in cropland suitability. Instead, the majority of the variation stemmed from a combination of proximity to agricultural infrastructure, characteristics of neighboring lands, and time fixed effects. The weak relationship between agronomic characteristics of land and P2C location suggests a less certain future for P2C than projections made with agronomic models. Consequentially, complications may arise for greenhouse gas mitigation policies in Brazil predicated on widespread expansion of cropland on pasture vs. natural areas. Our follow-up qualitative research shows that because P2C has often involved land rentals or sales, poorly functioning land institutions may have constrained P2C. Locally poor land quality, omitted from agronomic P2C predictions, can either catalyze or constrain P2C by limiting returns to ranching, farming, or both. Interventions to control rates and locations of P2C should take these insights into account.     

京津冀都市圈城乡复合型农业发展战略

加快京津冀都市圈农业现代化进程,凸显不同地域的农业多功能性,将有助于促进城乡协调发展和提高农民收入水平。该文利用实地调研与统计数据,分析了京津冀都市圈农业发展态势及其存在问题,构建了城乡复合型的农业发展战略。主要包括以保护耕地、保障粮食安全、提高农业综合生产能力为核心,促进种植业的基地化和规模化生产;围绕都市圈城乡居民的生活需要和市场需求,促进畜牧业的发展;以构筑绿色屏障和发展生态农业为核心,促进生态林果业的可持续发展;以经济效益为核心,促进水产业的产业化发展;凭借都市郊区区位优势,大力发展都市休闲观光农业。     

Patterns of development and conservation in agricultural lands—The case of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region 1990–2000

Until the 1990s Israel was implementing a strict agricultural land preservation policy program, rooted in Zionist ideology. This was changed when shifts in Israeli planning and land policy towards the end of the 20th century brought about accelerated growth and sprawling development in agricultural lands at the urban–rural fringe, particularly in the Tel Aviv metropolitan region (TMR). In this article we describe the background for policy shifts and the resulting impact on metropolitan growth, and then proceed to identify patterns of development in former agricultural lands and their impact on conservation, based on a study of statutory land use plans converting agricultural land to built-up uses within the TMR. It was found that most of the plans were converting large tracts of agricultural land to residential uses, characterized by low-density suburban-type family housing, thus reducing considerably the spatial conservation potential. In addition, only relative small portions of land were conserved as public open space within plans’ boundaries, and even then only about half of that was actually effective for active open space uses.     

Determinants of Land Use in Amazônia: A Fine-Scale Spatial Analysis

Wetter areas of the Amazon basin exhibit lower rates of agricultural conversion. Previous analyses, using relatively aggregate data on land cover, have been unable to determine the extent to which this reflects limited access versus unfavorable agroclimatic conditions. This article uses census-tract level data for the Brazilian Amazon to relate forest conversion and pasture productivity to precipitation, soil quality, infrastructure and market access, proximity to past conversion, and protection status. The probability that land is used for agriculture or intensively stocked with cattle declines markedly with increasing rainfall, other things equal.     

Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007)

In the past few decades, urbanisation has become a major phenomenon in European cities, thus representing one of the key human land cover changes with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In the Lisbon metropolitan region it is estimated that 17% of natural and farmland have been transformed into artificial areas. Since the end of 1990s, specific EU guidelines have been issued to contain urban sprawl and preserve agricultural land. Spatial planning in Portugal obviously is integrating these assumptions into the statutory land-use master plans. But what is the performance of this land use planning system regarding land cover evolution itself? Based on the Lisbon metropolitan region (LMR), one of the major areas of urban growth in Portugal, we examine spatio-temporal land cover patterns between 1990 and 2007 by integrating cross-matrix analysis, spatial metrics, and gradient analysis. Additionally, we overlay these land cover dynamics with municipal master plans that regulate land development in order to assess the compliance levels of this land-use regulatory system. Results indicate that: artificial areas are growing by coalescence and/or by scattered development along an urban–rural gradient; agricultural land is reducing and fragmentation is increasing to enlarge peri-urban spaces; there are high levels of conversion of agricultural land into urban land in protected areas, thus showing a lack of compliance to the land use regulatory system visible in the existing gaps between the original land-use assignments of the master plan and the actual developments.     

基于GIS运用对旅顺口区农用地分等定级研究

以旅顺口区土地利用现状图、土壤图、地形图等图件资料和土地自然质量、土地利用、土地经济相关统计资料为基础,运用GIS软件的空间叠加分析功能、属性查询功能和制图技术对旅顺口区农用地分等定级进行研究。在进行分等定级研究工作中,运用叠置法划分分等单元;采用特尔斐法确定分等因素及其权重大小;利用指定作物来计算土地利用系数和土地经济系数;在划分农用地等别时使用等间距法,最后生成农用地自然质量等别图、利用等别图和经济等别图。最终获得的旅顺口区农用地分等结果显示,旅顺口区自然质量等为8等至12等,共5个等别,其中11等占参与农用地分等总面积的40.79%,10等占38.79%,8等、12等、9等次之;利用等为11等至13等,12等所占比例最大,达到80.38%,13等最少;经济等别分为12等地和13等地,12等占绝大部分;由此得出旅顺口区农用地等级水平处于中低水平。     

Changing land use intensity in Europe – Recent processes in selected case studies

In recent decades the intensification of agricultural production in many European countries has been one of the key components of land-use change. The impact of agricultural intensification varies according to national and local contexts and a greater understanding of the drivers of intensification will help to mitigate against its negative impacts and harness potential benefits. This paper analyses changes in land use intensity in six case studies in Europe. A total of 437 landowners were interviewed and their responses were analysed in relation to changes in land use intensity and agricultural production between 2001 and 2011. In the case studies in Western and Eastern Europe we observed stabilisation during the last decade, and no clear tendency of increase or decrease of land use intensity. The use of fertilizers and pesticides seems to have decreased in our cases in Western Europe, which is contrary to trends in Eastern Europe. Agricultural production remained stable in almost all cases, except for an increase in Austria and Romania which may indicate that the farming efficiency has increased. A statistical analysis showed a division between study areas in Romania and Austria (increasing land use intensity) versus those in the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece (decreasing). In the Mediterranean cases we observe a process where agriculture is becoming increasingly marginalised, at the same time as changes in function with regard to urbanisation and recreational land uses have taken place. Logistic regression highlighted the importance of farm size and farmer type in understanding changes in land use intensity. The dominant pattern of stabilisation which has occurred over the past 10 years may also partly be a result of effective EU and national environmental and agricultural policies, which are increasingly concerned with improving environmental conditions in rural areas.     

中国农业土地利用结构及其优化途径

我国农地利用的结构性障碍在于耕地和林地所占比重偏低，而牧草地比重偏高：优质高产地比重偏低且减少较快；林牧用地结构不合理，植被覆盖率低一我们应往农产品供给和生态环境建设相协调的目标导引下．本着以林地为基础，以耕地为中心，以园地为辅助，以草地为依托，以水域为保障的原则进行农地利用优化配置。还必须通过对农业用地空间布局进行优化调整，进一步改善土地景观格局．增加环境容量．实现农业土地利用在产业发展和生态重建方面的双重功效。     

Environmental land use conflicts: A threat to soil conservation

Soil vulnerability and environmental land use conflicts were quantified and cross tabulated in the Sordo River basin (Trás-os-Montes Province, NE Portugal) to provide insights about the risk of soil degradation within that basin. Soil vulnerability was assessed by algorithms of multi criteria analysis and weighted linear combination, whereas environmental land use conflicts were described by an original approach. Three vulnerability scenarios were considered, enhancing the importance of topographic slope, soil class and use and occupation of soils, respectively, as vulnerability factors. Regardless the scenario, approximately two-thirds to the basin was defined as areas with high vulnerability. Fortunately, only 10.9% of the basin is in environmental conflict, where actual land uses deviate from natural uses determined by soil characteristics. The cross tabulation of high vulnerability areas with conflict areas, which defines the areas at risk of soil degradation, reveal that risk areas account for approximately 3.2–8.4% of the basin, depending on the scenario, being concentrated in steep slope hillsides suited for forest or mixed forest and pasture occupations but actually used for irrigated crop lands, vineyards and olive yards. Some conservation practices are implemented in the vineyard and olive yard areas, namely through the construction of terraces. These structures minimize soil erosion but are potentially unstable beyond given intervals of terrain slope. On the other hand, the maintenance of terraces is costly and for that reason eventually unaffordable for many farmers, and they also entail a mischaracterization of the historical and architectural heritage of the Douro Wine Region (UNESCO World Heritage). In this context, it was suggested the approval of legislation as regards the design, construction and maintenance of terraces, while in a broader perspective it was recommended the appreciation of a European Directive for soil protection and its subsequent transposition to the national legislation.     

Dynamics of youth access to agricultural land under the customary tenure regime in the Techiman traditional area of Ghana

This paper investigated youth access to agricultural land under customary land tenure in Ghana. Using Techiman Traditional Area as a case study, the study applied multiple sampling techniques in a multi-stage sampling process to select the study communities and respondents. A total sample of 455 youth respondents and 23 elders were covered in twenty peri-urban and rural communities. The study revealed that irrespective of whichever mode (market or non-market) the youth employed to access agricultural land, in rural or peri-urban areas, there were constraints to their land sizes. Majority of the youth, both indigenes and migrants, held small land sizes of 1–3 acres for farming purposes. The underlying causes were two-fold: demand-related such as high cost of accessing land and competition from residential developers and supply-related such as unwillingness of the elders to release land and increasing scarcity of productive family land, among others. It is thus the conclusion of the paper that more research should be conducted across the country into youth access to agricultural land under customary tenure as a means of formulating an evidence-based youth agricultural land access policy for the country. There is also the need for public education of customary authorities to sensitize them on the need for making land accessible to the youth for agricultural purpose.     

Supply side constraints in the Israeli housing market—The impact of state owned land

House prices in Israel have risen since 2008 by as much as 98%. Much of this increase is attributed to low levels of housing supply and housing supply elasticities. In Israel land is frequently owned by the state. This results in heavy government involvement in the housing market through the control of land supply via land tenders. This paper estimates the impact of state owned land on the Israeli housing market focusing on these unusual conditions of land supply. A model for the creation of new housing units is proposed. This incorporates land tenders, enabling the estimation of housing supply dynamics with an accurate measure of public land supply. The model is tested using regional panel data which facilitates the dynamic estimation of national and local supply elasticities and regional spillovers. The paper uses novel data sources resulting in a panel of 45 spatial units over a span of 11 years (2002–2012). Due to the nonstationary nature of the data, spatial panel cointegration methods are used. The empirical results yield estimates of housing supply price elasticities and elasticities with respect to land supply. Results show that housing supply is positively impacted by governmental decisions but the impact is low. Supply elasticity with regard to government land tenders stands at around 0.05 over the short run and 0.08 over the long run. Government policy of offering land in low demand areas and fixing minimum-price tendering does not seem to affect housing supply. Policy implications point to the need for more sensitive management of the delicate balance between public and private source of land in order to mitigate the excesses of demand shocks.     

中国近年来土地质量变化的概略判断

研究目的:了解和整体判断中国近年来土地质量变化态势。研究方法:依据全国农用地(耕地)分等成果中的自然等评价成果,采用自然等别赋值的替代方法,并辅以中国主要耕作土壤类型区土壤肥力等级变化的研究成果。研究结果:(1)大规模生态退耕退掉了大量低等劣质耕地,其数量远大于同期建设用地占用的优质耕地;(2)土地整理提高了部分耕地的质量,农业耕作改良措施总体上提高了土壤肥力,使全国耕地总体质量略有提高,但总体水平仍然偏低。研究结论:在强调保护耕地面积的同时,应更重视提高耕地质量,保障生产能力,建立耕地质量监测、评价、保育、提升的完整体系。