Government spending and economic growth in the OECD countries

Using panel data from 1995 to 2011 for 34 OECD countries, we examine the effects of government consumption spending, public social spending, and public investment on economic growth. We use a generalized method of moments estimation technique to solve inconsistency problems with fixed effects and random effects panel estimation. We find that an increase in public social spending has a significant negative effect on subsequent economic growth. Government consumption spending and public investment have no significant effect on subsequent economic growth.     

Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth

This paper analyses the effects in terms of size and volatility of government revenue and spending on growth in OECD and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking more closely at the effect of each component of government revenue and spending, the results point out that i) indirect taxes (size and volatility); ii) social contributions (size and volatility); iii) government consumption (size and volatility); iv) subsidies (size); and v) government investment (volatility) have a sizeable, negative and statistically significant effect on growth.     

On the heterogeneous impact of public capital and current spending on growth across nations

This paper captures the heterogeneous impact on growth, of public capital and current spending, for 15 developing countries. Using the GMM system panel estimator, we show that countries with substantial public capital (current) spending have strong negative (positive) growth effects.     

Income taxes, spending composition and long-run growth

The focus of this paper is threefold. First, it reexamines the impact on long-run growth of changes in flat-rate income taxes when a fraction of total government expenditures is used to provide public services that affect the productivity of privately held inputs. Second, for a given tax policy, this paper studies the impact of government expenditure composition on the rate of economic growth. Third, since demographics follow an overlapping generations structure and fiscal policy affects the economy's productivity, the paper features the role of productivity as a means of redistributing income across generations. The economy is analyzed numerically and policy experiments are carried out.     

Double dividend,dynamic Laffer effects and public abatement

In a very stylized endogenous growth economy with pollution and public abatement activities and without any production externality, we show that the government may exploit dynamic Laffer effects to achieve a double dividend through an environmental tax reform, while fulfilling its commitment to provide an exogenously specified sequence of expenditures in the form of lump-sum transfers to consumers.     

关于公共支出与经济增长的国内外研究综述

公共支出与经济增长的关系一直以来为经济学家们所争论。持公共支出促进经济增长观点认为,政府公共支出在经济增长中发挥着重要作用,因为它为经济发展提供了大量的公共品和其他具有外部效应的公共福利或服务,从而鼓励和便利了私人投资,形成了一个较好的投资环境,促进了经济增长。而持反对意见的认为,公共支出往往是生产率较低的,为融通政府支出而形成的高税收又会对私人部门的消费和投资造成很大的负面影响,因此,必须缩减政府支出,才能保证经济增长。当然也有人持两者根本就没有关系的观点。     

Public spending and growth: The role of government accountability

This paper examines the role of institutions in the nexus between public spending and economic growth. Empirical results based on a newly assembled dataset of 80 countries over the 1970–2010 period suggest that particularly when institutions prompt governments to be accountable to the general citizen does public capital spending promote growth. Taking account of the type of financing for this spending, we show that the growth-promoting effect under an accountable government appears to prevail for various financing sources, including a reallocation from current spending, an increase in revenue, and a rise in the budget deficit. However, government accountability does not seem to play a key role in the growth effects of current spending.     

Government solvency and financial markets: Dynamic panel estimates for the European Monetary Union

We assess government solvency in the European Monetary Union (EMU), controlling for the interaction of fiscal policy with financial markets. We find a positive interaction, reflecting market-based pressures for fiscal improvement, and significant debt stabilization efforts, weakened in the post-EMU era.     

Public health spending, tax reform, and long-run growth

Public health spending is introduced into an endogenous growth model to examine the effect of a tax reform on the growth and learning time. Unlike previous studies, the calibrated model produces an increase in the learning time, consistent with the US data.     

Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper investigates nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption. The estimated consumption function shows smooth regime switching depending on the debt-to-GDP ratio, and a higher level of government debt crowds out private consumption to a greater extent.     

The golden rule of public finance and the composition of government expenditures: a growth and welfare analysis

This paper employs an endogenous growth model to study the growth and welfare effects of the golden rule of public finance. Two versions are compared, whereby government deficits are restricted for the use of public investments. It is shown that the growth effect of the golden rule depends on what kind of expenditure is adjusted to meet debt obligations. A transition from a balanced budget to a golden rule is performed to study welfare. The results indicate that a budget rule with detrimental growth effects can still have positive welfare implications, and vice versa, if the composition of government expenditures and transitional dynamics are taken into account.     

Fiscal implications of AIDS in South Africa

The number of people living with HIV is alarmingly large. In addition to the incomprehensible human suffering of those directly affected, AIDS also has large, negative economic effects. In this paper, I study the fiscal implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa in a standard neo-classical growth model. I find that an antiretroviral program is to a large extent self financing. Improvement in dependency ratios and health care cost savings would pay for Rand 144 billion of a full epidemiological intervention. The indirect effect through the changing demographic structure will be more important than the direct health care cost saving effect. I also explore different taxation policies. The households would be willing to sacrifice an amount equal to 12% of GDP in the first period to be subject to an optimal (Ramsey) fiscal policy rather than an alternative fixed debt to GDP policy. The optimal policy implies an increase in government debt during the peak of the epidemic.     

A panel cointegration approach to estimating substitution elasticities in consumption

This paper investigates the relationship between government spending and private consumption. The general framework is a cointegration approach of Ogaki (1992) used to estimate the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between government and private consumption in a panel of 15 European countries. Recently developed non-stationary panel methodologies that assume cross-section dependence are applied. Results indicate an Edgeworth substitutability between private and public spending.     

Capital–labor substitution and balanced growth

This paper explores how different values of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor (σ) impact on the balanced growth paths and growth potential of a country in exogenous growth models. The behavior of the system depends on the value of σ and the passage of σ through two critical values causes a qualitative change in the nature of the singular points and of its trajectories. The balanced growth path defined by a singular point in the form of a saddle-path exists and is locally stable if σ lies between two critical values.     

Stability, global dynamics and Markov equilibrium in models of endogenous economic growth

This paper studies the local and global dynamics of two-sector models of endogenous growth with economy-wide external effects and taxes on capital and labor. The local analysis classifies the parameter space depending on the number of stationary solutions and local stability of equilibria. The global analysis shows that if taxes are within certain bounds and the size of the external effects on the average level of human capital is smaller than the share of physical capital, the equilibrium path is monotone and therefore a continuous Markov equilibrium can be constructed.     

Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe

This work provides empirical evidence for a sizeable, statistically significant negative impact of the quality of fiscal institutions on public spending volatility for a panel of 23 EU countries over the 1980–2007 period. The dependent variable is the volatility of discretionary fiscal policy, which does not represent reactions to changes in economic conditions. Our baseline results thus give support to the strengthening of institutions to deal with excessive levels of discretion volatility, as more checks and balances make it harder for governments to change fiscal policy for reasons unrelated to the current state of the economy. Our results also show that bigger countries and bigger governments have less public spending volatility. In contrast to previous studies, the political factors do not seem to play a role, with the exception of the Herfindahl index, which suggests that a high concentration of parliamentary seats in a few parties would increase public spending volatility.     

The dual nature of public goods and congestion: the role of fiscal policy revisited

Abstract The role of fiscal policy is examined when public goods provide both productive and utility services. In the presence of congestion, the consumption tax is shown to be distortionary. Optimal fiscal policy involves using consumption‐based instruments in conjunction with the income tax. An income tax‐financed increase in government spending dominates both lump‐sum and consumption tax‐financing. Replacing the lump‐sum tax with an income tax to finance a given level of spending dominates introducing an equivalent consumption tax. These results contrast sharply with the literature, where the consumption tax is generally viewed as the least distortionary source of public finance.     

Mandatory spending,political polarization,and macroeconomic volatility

This paper studies the impact of political polarization on macroeconomic volatility in a political economy model of optimal fiscal policy. I introduce the distinction between mandatory and discretionary public spending in a model where consumers disagree on the size of the public sector. In the presence of political turnover and political polarization, public policies that affect individual decision-making lead to macroeconomic volatility. I show that the legislative requirements behind the changes in mandatory public spending can reduce macroeconomic volatility caused by political polarization and political turnover. The numerical simulations of the model suggest that in the presence of a binding constraint on the changes in mandatory spending, an increase in the political polarization is associated with an increase in the share of mandatory spending and a decrease in the macroeconomic volatility, consistent with the U.S. data.     

Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis

This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth–higher variance state, while positively within a faster growth–lower variance one. It is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities. As a policy tool, the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth–higher growth volatility periods.     

Optimum government size and economic growth in case of Indian states: Evidence from panel threshold model

This paper investigates the relationship between optimum government size and economic growth using data of Indian states during 1990-91 to 2017–18. Our results derived from panel threshold regression model show a positive and significant impact of government size on economic growth within the estimated thresholds for both aggregate and sub-panels based on income and regions. Once the government size moves above the upper threshold level, then its impact declines and turns to be insignificant. Thus, our findings suggest the policymakers for maintaining the government size within the thresholds limit.